If Melnyk gives the ok for buyouts/retain salary, do you forgive him?

[Nac Mac Feegle]

*sigh* it's still not set in stone. And no, phase one of the LRT does nothing for folks who don't work downtown. Holy hell dude, do you think the country ends at the eastern side of Vanier?

 

[Micklebot]

So by using that logic, Melnyk, if he had any thoughts on selling the team, and making a reasonable profit, it would have happened by now.

Yes, because a sale transaction of that magnitude happens in a matter of 2 to 3 weeks...

There's certainly no rush if Melnyk is considering selling, he can take is time and still reap the profits. Your logic is very flawed. Beyond that, the claim was that now is the best time to sell, you disputed that with flawed logic, and now your changing the argument. If you want to debate whether or not he wants to sell, fine, but that's not what was being discussed.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

*sigh* it's still not set in stone. And no, phase one of the LRT does nothing for folks who don't work downtown. Holy hell dude, do you think the country ends at the eastern side of Vanier?

I guess you don't understand the concept of people in the South end of Ottawa, driving to the Park and Ride at Greenboro, hopping on the (now) O Train to Bayview Station (in 4 or 5 years) and taking a 5 minute walk to the New Arena ......... Or someone from Orleans parking at Place D'Orleans, taking a bus to the "end of the line" LRT Station and take the LRT to Pimisi and again take a 5 min walk to the new Arena.


Besides, anyone with a just a little common sense will know that of the 100, 000 people who commute every workday to the down town core, will then be about a 10 minute Public transit/taxi/Uber ride away from the New Arena.



Explain how that is not going to work any better ... vs the current location of the CTC

 

[Micklebot]

I and many others thought Claesson was going to continue his stellar play. Harpur too.

If fans chose not to buy tickets for your reasons, well, doesn't speak much to the commitment of the fans. Sony and have to be 100% happy with any and all moves? Gee, I guess no one will go to a game in Ottawa I guess.

Why you upset they tarped seats? Judging by attendance it seems to be a moot point doesn't it.

I'm not the one trying to sell a product, now am I? Do you think it's a good business model to downscale the quality of a product after having an exceptional fiscal year? Is that typically a good way to build on the momentum? Does a restaurant remove popular menu items and remove tables after getting a bunch of positive reviews and making record profits the prior year?

What did the team do to fix the attendance issue during the offseason? To encourage seat renewals? Sure, they had a good season, but then they just decided that's enough and took steps back in every other avenue. They have nobody to blame but themselves. Customers aren't stupid, they see what's going on and can tell when companies are committed to providing a quality product. Ottawa did not show any degree of commitment to sustaining the momentum of last years run.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Yes, because a sale transaction of that magnitude happens in a matter of 2 to 3 weeks...

There's certainly no rush if Melnyk is considering selling, he can take is time and still reap the profits. Your logic is very flawed. Beyond that, the claim was that now is the best time to sell, you disputed that with flawed logic, and now your changing the argument. If you want to debate whether or not he wants to sell, fine, but that's not what was being discussed.

I was thinking about your earlier point that the increase in value of the Oilers franchise was more attributed by their share of the VGK expansion fee, than the relocation to a new centrally located Arena.

Did I get that right?

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

I guess you don't understand the concept of people in the South end of Ottawa, driving to the Park and Ride at Greenboro, hopping on the (now) O Train to Bayview Station (in 4 or 5 years) and taking a 5 minute walk to the New Arena ......... Or someone from Orleans parking at Place D'Orleans, taking a bus to the "end of the line" LRT Station and take the LRT to Pimisi and again take a 5 min walk to the new Arena.


Besides, anyone with a just a little common sense will know that of the 100, 000 people who commute every workday to the down town core, will then be about a 10 minute Public transit/taxi/Uber ride away from the New Arena.



Explain how that is not going to work any better ... vs the current location of the CTC

That's not what I was arguing at all. Hell, you don't even know what you're trying to argue against.

 

[Micklebot]

I was thinking about your earlier point that the increase in value of the Oilers franchise was more attributed by their share of the VGK expansion fee, than the relocation to a new centrality located Arena.

Did I get that right?

No, apparently not.

The deal for a new arena in Edm potentially spiked the value back in 2013-14. The inflated expansion fee relative to prior expansions spiked it (to a far lesser degree mind you) this past year. The point being made was simple; now, or in the near future, is potentially a very profitable time to sell. Now, he could hold off and see the usual inflation of the clubs value for a number of years, but there is nothing in the foreseeable future that would likely cause another spike in value, at least not anything that recent history would have us predict.

Now, this is all based on the premise that the increase in value back in 2013-14 was because of a new arena. I'm not so sure that's a fair determination. The more I think about it, I suspect the latest CBA probably had a real impact on NHL teams values. Much like playing in the arena for a couple years is correlated but imo highly unlikely to be the cause of the latest increase in value, the new arena deal may not have been the cause of edmonton's earlier spike. It's not a perfect analogue, because Edmonton's arena wasn't seen as one of the root causes of attendance issues like it is in Ottawa. Ottawa moving arena's likely will have a greater impact than Edm.

This brings forward another issue; there is a huge element of risk coming with new CBA negotiations. An owner considering selling might want to do so now before the negotiations get to close and rhetoric of another costly lockout peaks. Alternatively, they may wish to weather the storm and reap potential benefits of an owner friendly CBA.

 

[Tundraman]

It's pretty clear that Melnyk will not invest any (or at best the least) of his own money into the team. That includes revenues derived from un-shared sources such as concessions, parking, other arena generated funds etc.. or any other outside holdings for that matter. Whenever he's talked about spending it's for immediate return on investment such as the promise of a long profitable playoff run. What do you think would happen the next year(s) if Dorion promised him a playoff run if he spent to the cap and then didn't succeed. I'll bet the lean years would follow to make up for it. No one should kid themselves. When it comes to the Sens Melnyk is not philanthropic, it's a business that has to at the very least break even.

Unless hockey ops revenue increase (with tv and radio locked in that means ticket sales) you should expect any buyouts and salary retention to come out of the hockey ops budget. Since the off-ice operations are already thin to the bone the dollars will come out of player salaries.

 

[coladin]

I'm not the one trying to sell a product, now am I? Do you think it's a good business model to downscale the quality of a product after having an exceptional fiscal year? Is that typically a good way to build on the momentum? Does a restaurant remove popular menu items and remove tables after getting a bunch of positive reviews and making record profits the prior year?

What did the team do to fix the attendance issue during the offseason? To encourage seat renewals? Sure, they had a good season, but then they just decided that's enough and took steps back in every other avenue. They have nobody to blame but themselves. Customers aren't stupid, they see what's going on and can tell when companies are committed to providing a quality product. Ottawa did not show any degree of commitment to sustaining the momentum of last years run.

They already knew, if you read my later post, that the arena was going to be even more empty, even after the playoff run. Seasons and packages are sold during playoff runs. They discount playoff tickets to get you to commit to seasons or Flex packages the following year. Considering that tickets couldn't be moved, or quickly, they knew the writing was on the wall. Hence the tarps.

Maybe you are unaware, but season ticket renewals are ongoing right now. Right up until a playoff run. The majority of seasons and flexes are sold not in October, but end of April and if you are in the playoffs, May and June. It seems that Ottawa fans had amnesia following May 26, 2017 ? Fans were rabid, heartbroken, proud, verrrrrrry aware of the Senators, but you want him to buy billboards and radio ads? What more momentum is needed to buy and invest and commit to your team? Skywriting?

"Sure they had a good season"??? Fans always diminish the season last year, it was a great season. Great enough to buy the tarped tickets? Guess not.

Don't pin this all on ownership. Fans have ALSO, to look at themselves in the mirror. I am not naïve enough to think ownership is blameless , but let's call a spade a spade here.

This fan base needs to be bargained with and enticed. That is Melnyk's fault for not recognizing that sooner. That was Leeder's fault for not doing anything about it. I think Melnyk gets it now. Ottawa is unlike any other Canadian market and the reality is, you cannot treat them like a typical Canadian fan base, which many here chide and ridicule for being dumb by supporting losing teams. Because only Ottawa fans are smart . We need promotions . AAA and AA baseball style promotions to get people to come out.

 

[Tuna99]

Again, none of us know how the negotiations were going between the NCC and the Melnyk group last year.

But I've heard some commentators suggest now, that the deal has been struck for Lebreton, that his rant back in December looked more like posturing to gain the upper hand in the negotiations ......... and some comparisons were made with the Flames negotiations with the City of Calgary, before last year's Mayoral elections.

You can call Melnyk stupid all you want, but today he is sitting in pretty good situation visa vie his deal with the NCC for Lebreton Flats, where he's not really going to be paying for the cost of the remediation of the contaminated soil, as it will be all deducted from the cost of the land .......... that's not stupid in my books.

As far as your assertion that he "pissed off the fanbase, I see little evidence of that, except for a very small vocal minority that are more pissed of at everyone else not jumping onto their band wagon.

In the long run this will all be forgotten, and there will be packed houses once the Senators begin play in Lebreton Flats.

So your baseline for a good news story for Melnyck for the 2018 season is 'this season and Melnyck's baseline character will all be forgotten soon enough and in 5 years we should probably have a new stadium'

If that's good news to you, then that's great.

 

[coladin]

It's pretty clear that Melnyk will not invest any (or at best the least) of his own money into the team. That includes revenues derived from un-shared sources such as concessions, parking, other arena generated funds etc.. or any other outside holdings for that matter. Whenever he's talked about spending it's for immediate return on investment such as the promise of a long profitable playoff run. What do you think would happen the next year(s) if Dorion promised him a playoff run if he spent to the cap and then didn't succeed. I'll bet the lean years would follow to make up for it. No one should kid themselves. When it comes to the Sens Melnyk is not philanthropic, it's a business that has to at the very least break even.

Unless hockey ops revenue increase (with tv and radio locked in that means ticket sales) you should expect any buyouts and salary retention to come out of the hockey ops budget. Since the off-ice operations are already thin to the bone the dollars will come out of player salaries.

Pretty clear? He has stated he writes cheques to cover losses. I know this is the internet, but seriously, people make up a lot of crap here.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

It's pretty clear that Melnyk will not invest any (or at best the least) of his own money into the team. That includes revenues derived from un-shared sources such as concessions, parking, other arena generated funds etc.. .

Not 100% sure, as I can't find a current list of HHR, but know that concessions and parking used to included in HRR, and most likley still are.

If anyone can find a current list, pleas post it. All I have is the list from a previous CBA, and doubt very much the players would not have held onto their share of parking and concessions.

HHR (previous CBA)

1) NHL Regular Season & Playoff Gate Receipts
2) Pre-Season Games
3) Special Games (International Exhibition Games, etc)
4) NHL National, International and National Digital Broadcasts
5) NHL Networks
6) Local Cable Television Broadcasts
7) Local Pay-Per-View, Satellite and Other Broadcasts
8) Local Over-the-Air Television Broadcasts
9) Local Radio Broadcasts
10) Club Internet
11) Publications
12) In-Arena Novelty Sales
13) Non-Arena Novelty Sales
14) Concessions
15) Luxury Boxes/Suites
16) Club/Premium Seats
17) Fixed Signage/Arena Sponsorships
18) Temporary Signage/Club Sponsorships
19) Dasherboards
20) Parking
21) Other Revenues (sale of game-worn jerseys, skills competitions, open practices, etc)

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

So your baseline for a good news story for Melnyck for the 2018 season is 'this season and Melnyck's baseline character will all be forgotten soon enough and in 5 years we should probably have a new stadium'

If that's good news to you, then that's great.

Just looking at the "long game" as no doubt Melnyk is, when he's been in negotiations for at least a couple years to this point, and know that his end game is a New Arena in Lebreton Flats, located virtually on top of the LRT with stations on both sides of his Arena feeding commuters from the east, west and south, and located right beside a Bridge to Gatineau that will feed commuters from the north.


So, as I pointed out, I've heard some commentators, now with hindsight, saying that he was most likely posturing in December, as a negotiation tactic with the NCC ......... and the fans where unfortunately hit in the crossfire.

You can carry a grudge for as long as you want, you're entitled to do that.

 

[Micklebot]

They already knew, if you read my later post, that the arena was going to be even more empty, even after the playoff run. Seasons and packages are sold during playoff runs. They discount playoff tickets to get you to commit to seasons or Flex packages the following year. Considering that tickets couldn't be moved, or quickly, they knew the writing was on the wall. Hence the tarps.

Maybe you are unaware, but season ticket renewals are ongoing right now. Right up until a playoff run. The majority of seasons and flexes are sold not in October, but end of April and if you are in the playoffs, May and June. It seems that Ottawa fans had amnesia following May 26, 2017 ? Fans were rabid, heartbroken, proud, verrrrrrry aware of the Senators, but you want him to buy billboards and radio ads? What more momentum is needed to buy and invest and commit to your team? Skywriting?

"Sure they had a good season"??? Fans always diminish the season last year, it was a great season. Great enough to buy the tarped tickets? Guess not.

Don't pin this all on ownership. Fans have ALSO, to look at themselves in the mirror. I am not naïve enough to think ownership is blameless , but let's call a spade a spade here.

This fan base needs to be bargained with and enticed. That is Melnyk's fault for not recognizing that sooner. That was Leeder's fault for not doing anything about it. I think Melnyk gets it now. Ottawa is unlike any other Canadian market and the reality is, you cannot treat them like a typical Canadian fan base, which many here chide and ridicule for being dumb by supporting losing teams. Because only Ottawa fans are smart . We need promotions . AAA and AA baseball style promotions to get people to come out.

So your logic is they new that the writting was on the wall that it would be a tough sell, and their response was to make things worse by doing everything they could this offseason to take a step backwards instead of forward?

Fans are to blame in that they are tired of the same old song and dance from this team. They take two steps backwards for every one step forward, and it's hard to maintain hope when history tells you that they won't be building on any momentum the previous season created. Tickets are sold based on a quality product and the hope/faith that the product will continue to improve. What has this organization done to build that faith? They traded off Spezza for cost savings rather than the best possible deal, they let Alfredsson go because of money, they did nothing to replace MacArthur or Methot, they dealt Zibanejad and futures for a more budget friendly Brassard, they throw picks in to save money. They make remarks about coaches only being worth the market value if they can walk on water and admit to runing a skeleton crew in management, they make veiled threats about relocation.

The reality is there is a lack of trust, and that's not the fanbases fault, it's the way this org has been run for years now. Trust that the org will do what it will take to improve the team is part of selling tickets, the org has failed in a big way in that regard.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

No, apparently not.

The deal for a new arena in Edm potentially spiked the value back in 2013-14. The inflated expansion fee relative to prior expansions spiked it (to a far lesser degree mind you) this past year. The point being made was simple; now, or in the near future, is potentially a very profitable time to sell. Now, he could hold off and see the usual inflation of the clubs value for a number of years, but there is nothing in the foreseeable future that would likely cause another spike in value, at least not anything that recent history would have us predict.

Now, this is all based on the premise that the increase in value back in 2013-14 was because of a new arena. I'm not so sure that's a fair determination. The more I think about it, I suspect the latest CBA probably had a real impact on NHL teams values. Much like playing in the arena for a couple years is correlated but imo highly unlikely to be the cause of the latest increase in value, the new arena deal may not have been the cause of edmonton's earlier spike. It's not a perfect analogue, because Edmonton's arena wasn't seen as one of the root causes of attendance issues like it is in Ottawa. Ottawa moving arena's likely will have a greater impact than Edm.

This brings forward another issue; there is a huge element of risk coming with new CBA negotiations. An owner considering selling might want to do so now before the negotiations get to close and rhetoric of another costly lockout peaks. Alternatively, they may wish to weather the storm and reap potential benefits of an owner friendly CBA.

Still a little cloudy on why you might be saying an expansion fee, somehow boosts the value ( in Forbe's calculation ) of the Oilers.

Would the owner of the Oilers making a major unrelated (to the Oilers) financial windfall, increase the value of the Oilers?

I think not, as it's like the expansion fee, he's not going to hand that money over to the next owner of the Oilers.

 

[Micklebot]

Still a little cloudy on why you might be saying an expansion fee, somehow boosts the value ( in Forbe's calculation ) of the Oilers.

Would the owner of the Oilers making a major unrelated (to the Oilers) financial windfall, increase the value of the Oilers?

I think not, as it's like the expansion fee, he's not going to hand that money over to the next owner of the Oilers.

The expansion fee had an effect on the value of all franchises as it sets the market value for new franchises. That's the new baseline for entering the league, and you can bet it will be used by anyone selling a team as a starting point in negotiations. This isn't a novel concept, I'm completly unsure why this would be cloudy for you.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

The expansion fee had an effect on the value of all franchises as it sets the market value for new franchises. That's the new baseline for entering the league, and you can bet it will be used by anyone selling a team as a starting point in negotiations. This isn't a novel concept, I'm completly unsure why this would be cloudy for you.

Each owner received just $16.7 M each, from the VGKs entry fee......so I doubt the "added value" that you're attaching to it is not that much, and the potential of another divided expansion fee does not add much, or any value, to any of the existing franchises.

I still see a brand new state of the art NHL Arena, located downtown, integrated with the LRT, as a much bigger bump in the current value of the Senators, than a possible expansion fee, divided by 31 teams would.

 

[Micklebot]

Each owner received just $16.7 M each, from the VGKs entry fee......so I doubt the "added value" that you're attaching to it is not that much, and the potential of another divided expansion fee does not add much, or any value, to any of the existing franchises.

I still see a brand new state of the art NHL Arena, located downtown, integrated with the LRT, as a much bigger bump in the current value of the Senators, than a possible expansion fee, divided by 31 teams would.

It's not about the amount the owners received, it's about a reset on what it costs to buy into the league. If you sell your McDonalds franchise for 1 mil dollars, and a year later, somebody buys the rights to build a new one a few blocks away for 2 mil, you can bet that the value of the one you sold just went up too. The market changed when the NHL set the buy in at 500 mil and multiple people were willing to pay the price.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

It's not about the amount the owners received, it's about a reset on what it costs to buy into the league. If you sell your McDonalds franchise for 1 mil dollars, and a year later, somebody buys the rights to build a new one a few blocks away for 2 mil, you can bet that the value of the one you sold just went up too. The market changed when the NHL set the buy in at 500 mil and multiple people were willing to pay the price.

I'm sticking with and Brand new State of the Art Arena, as a bigger boost to the Current value of the Sens, and the better time to sell, than today.

IF Melnyk sells before the new Arena is built, then we'll know I guess.

 

[coladin]

So your logic is they new that the writting was on the wall that it would be a tough sell, and their response was to make things worse by doing everything they could this offseason to take a step backwards instead of forward?

Fans are to blame in that they are tired of the same old song and dance from this team. They take two steps backwards for every one step forward, and it's hard to maintain hope when history tells you that they won't be building on any momentum the previous season created. Tickets are sold based on a quality product and the hope/faith that the product will continue to improve. What has this organization done to build that faith? They traded off Spezza for cost savings rather than the best possible deal, they let Alfredsson go because of money, they did nothing to replace MacArthur or Methot, they dealt Zibanejad and futures for a more budget friendly Brassard, they throw picks in to save money. They make remarks about coaches only being worth the market value if they can walk on water and admit to runing a skeleton crew in management, they make veiled threats about relocation.

The reality is there is a lack of trust, and that's not the fanbases fault, it's the way this org has been run for years now. Trust that the org will do what it will take to improve the team is part of selling tickets, the org has failed in a big way in that regard.

That sounds quite revisionist when describing this year (or going into this year) , but all the other stuff you mention going back to Spezza (who requested a trade not for money issues), is stuff I don't even think about . People want to hold onto the past, all the power to them.

I'm surprised you haven't brought up trading Kudelski for pete's sake.

I just find it incredulous that you think the fans are 100% blameless and it is all on ownership.

 

[Micklebot]

That sounds quite revisionist when describing this year (or going into this year) , but all the other stuff you mention going back to Spezza (who requested a trade not for money issues), is stuff I don't even think about . People want to hold onto the past, all the power to them.

I'm surprised you haven't brought up trading Kudelski for pete's sake.

I just find it incredulous that you think the fans are 100% blameless and it is all on ownership.

The money issues is the returns when we trade guys like Spezza, not the root of the decision to trade him in the first place. The reality though is you don't have to think about specific events like the ones I listed, it's the general tone around every move this team has made over nearly the last decade. From always opting for inexperienced coaches, always needing trades to either be cost neutral or cost saving, throwing in picks to save money or get the other team to retain. I'm not holding onto the past, I just see the patern, and how it clearly hasn't changed.

Honestly, since the end of the playoffs last year, what did this team do to try and build on that momentum? They hid the fact that they knew MacArthur wouldn't likely pass his medical (I don't really blame them for keeping quiet here) didn't try to replace him and lost Methot to the expansion draft and again didn't try and replace him (unless you thing Oduya was a reasonable effort to replace him).

 

[Stylizer1]

So its a yes for forgiveness?

 

[Spartachat]

Still a little cloudy on why you might be saying an expansion fee, somehow boosts the value ( in Forbe's calculation ) of the Oilers.

Would the owner of the Oilers making a major unrelated (to the Oilers) financial windfall, increase the value of the Oilers?

I think not, as it's like the expansion fee, he's not going to hand that money over to the next owner of the Oilers.

Discounted value of future of expansion fees would be part of a team valuation. Thus, the expected expansion fee payment from Seattle of 21 million could be included in the team price. It is a big cash flow for the team, but does not make a huge difference to the valuation of a team already valued at 500 million.

 

[Spartachat]

I'm sticking with and Brand new State of the Art Arena, as a bigger boost to the Current value of the Sens, and the better time to sell, than today.

IF Melnyk sells before the new Arena is built, then we'll know I guess.

If Melnyk were to sell the team with the deal included, the deal would be priced into the valuation. If the Sens were a listed company, the stock probably would have shot up when the deal was announced.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

If Melnyk were to sell the team with the deal included, the deal would be priced into the valuation. If the Sens were a listed company, the stock probably would have shot up when the deal was announced.

Who, in their right mind, would sell the Senators, and the rights to re-develop Lebreton Flats over the next two or three decades?

Put yourself in Melnyk's shoes, you own, and enjoy owning a NHL Franchise, have just signed and received the exclusive rights to redevelop probably thee most Prime chunk of Real estate in the entire country, with the potential to bring in huge profits to you, and your family, for the foreseeable future............ would you give this and your NHL franchise up?