Hronek, Filip

[Roomba With a Bauer]

If a D-man is getting secondary points it means he is still moving the puck and participating in plays that lead to goals.

I value secondary points for D-men more than forwards. If a D-man got the secondary point, a lot of times it means he either kept the play alive or successfully started a breakout.

Most of our D-men over the last 6 years have been capable of neither of those things.

 

[Winger98]

No it's not a negative by any means. I think his willingness to take the play in front of him is a trait that makes him more valuable than he would otherwise be, mainly because he doesn't have a dynamic ability to bite off even more. As for the primary point discussion, it's hard to isolate a lot of variables, but we can look at it broken out like this I suppose (in totals, rounding errors present). I think the thing that we still don't know is how many primary assists he logged last year off of rebounds that his shot created.

2018-19: 23 points - 21.7% goals, 34.8% A1, 43.5% A2
2019-20: 31 points - 29.0% goals, 32.3% A1, 38.7% A2
2020-21: 22 points - 9.1% goals, 18.2% A1, 72.7% A2

Now certainly, the role on the powerplay is significant here. He produced 10.4 individual shots per 60 minutes of powerplay time last year compared to 7.4 this year, meaning he is shooting less, and we know by watching him that he's not shooting from the same spot on the ice. His shots are likely not even intended to be goal scoring threats by themselves, and rather trying to use screens and deflections to create chances, which is fine.

I feel like I have to keep repeating this, not because of this response, but because the reaction is always so aggressive. My intent is not to say that Hronek is a bad player, but he is a first pairing defenseman only if you look at him through a statistical production microscope. The way he has come around his offense is appreciable, but he is not dynamic enough to be in the the upper echelon of true offensive defensemen. And defensively, he looks the same as he did last year. I do not want him to see the ice on the PK; I think he still is taken advantage of physically in his end; he still gets lost in his own zone; he makes questionable reads defending in transition.

These are things that I think he will still get better at, but the lack of polish prevents me from comfortably saying he is a first pairing defenseman because I don't think he will ever be good at them (just not bad), and yet I still think he is a good player. Just one who is better suited to not be asked to do as much as he does, even if that means his numbers regress slightly, because we have a player set to arrive next year who I think is even better at taking the play that is in front of him and who also excels at the things that happen in the other end of the ice. Hronek as the second best RD on your team is a legitimate weapon, and I am excited to get him into that role.

well, production is a pretty big part of being a 1/2/3/whatever. But I get where you're coming from and I think you're right about Seider showing up and helping balance the top4 and (hopefully) putting Hronek into some better spots to play to his strengths. I'm really hoping we get some help on the left side, too. Draft a guy and sign/trade a guy, get that side shored up so Seider/Hronek have guys they don't have to baby sit a bit.

 

[Hen Kolland]

You can't check just advanced stats and expect to get the whole picture.

He leads the team in points and he has more points than our next 3 defenders combined. How about that?

I can actually infer a lot when I watch a player and layer in advanced stats. I haven’t missed more than a period in any game this season, and watched every minute of all but 2-3 games. I know Hronek’s game backwards and forwards. The things that the advanced stats say are absolutely holding water in this case.

 

[Hen Kolland]

If a D-man is getting secondary points it means he is still moving the puck and participating in plays that lead to goals.

I value secondary points for D-men more than forwards. If a D-man got the secondary point, a lot of times it means he either kept the play alive or successfully started a breakout.

Most of our D-men over the last 6 years have been capable of neither of those things.

Absolutely. I’ve never said that him getting points is not a good thing. This all comes down to if/how we get Hronek to be a legitimate top pairing guy.

If his impact is going to be greatest in the offensive zone, I would like to see him create more, not just facilitate. If he’s going to be this version of himself in the offensive zone, which is still good, then I would like to see more development defending. I can be a huge fan of what Hronek has become and still not satisfied with what he is today. That is all!

 

[jaster]

One overlooked factor here is that he plays on an awful team, and he plays a lot on an awful team. It's been said a million times, yet it still bears repeating: he's being asked to do too much. He's not a #1 dman but he's being asked to fill that role. He's having to play a lot of minutes with inferior talent. Oh, and he's only 23. Combined with what is a small sample size this season, that reality skews stats, advanced stats, and even the eyeball test if you're just myopically watching Hronek every shift.

His career as a whole so far is that of a 40+ point dman who can play well, or at least capably, in all situations. Who isn't fast but has excellent mobility. Is a good possession player, excellent passer, and his shot doesn't get nearly enough credit. He has a real good panic threshold, and he can aptly play multiple roles on the PP. His deficiencies are that he's not overly strong, though he mitigates that with some elusiveness and tenacity; and he's not overly fast, though he mitigates that with mobility and vision.

He's not a 10/10 in any category you want to rate, but he's above average in so damn many of them that he's getting underrated around here. I get the "nobody is untouchable" and "for the right price anyone can be traded" mantras, but there's simply too much talk about Hronek being traded on this board. Someone even mentioned moving because "he's not a true top-pair" defenseman. Yeah. Fine. Except for the fact that more than one in-depth analysis of what it takes to win the Cup has shown that you truly need 4-5 very, very good defensemen, including 3-4 guys who are capable of playing top-pair.

The Wings have a long way to go to rebuild its defense corps, even with Seider on the way. Trading Hronek only sets it even further back. They need to be building around Hronek, not cashing in on him.

 

[raymond23]

He's improving from his terrible start to the season, that's for sure.

Offense will always be his biggest asset but what will make him truly valuable is where he progressives defensively. He definitely has the potential to be a top pair rd, he just turned 23 in November even tho it feels like he's been on the team forever at this point.

I still think he needs to use his feet more on zone exits but I don't think Blash/Houda encourage that at all. Maybe it's to retain energy since he plays so much.

 

[MBH]

Hronek is probably going to be our best powerplay defenseman for quite some time unless Cholowski somehow finds the magic he showed during his first month here.
Seider may never be a powerplay guy and we don't have many powerplay guys in the system.
Johansson is more of a skater than a guy who sits at the point and hammers the puck and QBs the PP.
Who else? Wallinder doesn't appear to have fine skills. He's more of a physical tools guy.
McIsaac? Sebrango? Viro? Barton?
Maybe Viro. Maybe. In years.

 

[MBH]

If a D-man is getting secondary points it means he is still moving the puck and participating in plays that lead to goals.

I value secondary points for D-men more than forwards. If a D-man got the secondary point, a lot of times it means he either kept the play alive or successfully started a breakout.

Most of our D-men over the last 6 years have been capable of neither of those things.

It depends. Secondary points on the PP often don't say much other than that you were out there.
At 5 on 5, I think it probably says something different

 

[Pavels Dog]

From last 3 seasons guys like DeKeyser are +29 and -29.

Hronek is +51 and -112.

Think Hronek is our worst defenceman defensively from our current group.

He has played about 1000 minutes more than anyone else in that timeframe just at even strength.

Hronek is probably going to be our best powerplay defenseman for quite some time unless Cholowski somehow finds the magic he showed during his first month here.
Seider may never be a powerplay guy and we don't have many powerplay guys in the system.
Johansson is more of a skater than a guy who sits at the point and hammers the puck and QBs the PP.
Who else? Wallinder doesn't appear to have fine skills. He's more of a physical tools guy.
McIsaac? Sebrango? Viro? Barton?
Maybe Viro. Maybe. In years.

Seider, Johansson and Wallinder all project as powerplay guys. Hronek will likely continue to be one of our top choices for at least the next 3-4 seasons though.

 

[jaster]

Hronek is probably going to be our best powerplay defenseman for quite some time unless Cholowski somehow finds the magic he showed during his first month here.
Seider may never be a powerplay guy and we don't have many powerplay guys in the system.
Johansson is more of a skater than a guy who sits at the point and hammers the puck and QBs the PP.
Who else? Wallinder doesn't appear to have fine skills. He's more of a physical tools guy.
McIsaac? Sebrango? Viro? Barton?
Maybe Viro. Maybe. In years.

Well. Wallinder certainly has the skills. That dude's edgework and hands in the O-zone with the puck on his stick has PP QB written all over it. Not to mention he has a pretty decent shot. Wheeler at The Athletic had a great breakdown of it the other day. The question for him is can he develop the rest of his game for that ability to play at the NHL level? Anyone's guess... he has a ton of work to do defensively. He's a long way off, still a longshot. Hopefully he's not just an oversized Cholowski in the end.

Seider and Johansson seem to both have some PP potential imo, but nothing sure-fire, so time will tell.

The rest of those guys don't have anything worth hoping for in terms of the PP. I like Viro's game, but he's Troy Stecher. He doesn't have the offensive ability in the O zone for PP time.

So yeah, I agree. Hronek is our PP guy and will be for some time.

 

[14ari13]

I see that there are many aspects of the game which people miss here.
Here is the stats from the top of my head, you can check the exact stats.
Hronek has as many points as the next 3 dmen combined.
Our whole defensive crops has like 30 points, he has 20 (~40%), this is like historically good.
This is the proper way to view his production.
He has outscored all our forwards.
+/- stats. How many are empty nets? He is the only defender we put out there.
How many Howard (Greiss) minuses? How many bad team minuses?
He is a right handed defender. As far as I know it is a disadvantage to be a right handed defender on the pp. Forward advantage, defender disadvantage.
I have to watch him on a better team before I can assess his game completely.

 

[GettingYourMoms]

He is playing on 0.5 points per game pace for 3 seasons on the worst f***ing team in NHL. He is 1st pair offensive NHL defenseman period and our best player. What the hell are you guys smoking here crack? This guy will be nearly ppg when we are somewhat decent.

 

[FabricDetails]

27:01 against Carolina. Good game overall. But I'm still not liking that kind of number.

 

[TheOtherOne]

It's kinda crazy thinking how it was not really that long ago that Hronek and Cholowski were almost interchangeable prospects. Hronek chosen 33 picks later in the same draft. They took turns getting promoted a few games and going back down. We argued about who would be better.

Today Hronek is one of our MVPs playing over 23 minutes a game. What the hell happened to this guy the last couple years?

 

[14ari13]

It's kinda crazy thinking how it was not really that long ago that Hronek and Cholowski were almost interchangeable prospects. Hronek chosen 33 picks later in the same draft. They took turns getting promoted a few games and going back down. We argued about who would be better.

Today Hronek is one of our MVPs playing over 23 minutes a game. What the hell happened to this guy the last couple years?

He is in his 3rd season, about to complete 2 full seasons in games played.

I would like too see what think of him now?

 

[DInTheB]

It’s remarkable Hronek led the team in scoring (though most of it was on secondary assists) with these underlying numbers. I think Hronek is a solid player but we have to get him off top pair and also off the PP.

 

[jaster]

It’s remarkable Hronek led the team in scoring (though most of it was on secondary assists) with these underlying numbers. I think Hronek is a solid player but we have to get him off top pair and also off the PP.

I agree his role needs to be reduced, and hopefully it will be, progressively, once Seider arrives. However, he shouldn't be removed from the PP altogether, he can certainly be an asset there, especially given this roster. I personally like him better as a triggerman on the sidewall than running point, but he can do either.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I agree his role needs to be reduced, and hopefully it will be, progressively, once Seider arrives. However, he shouldn't be removed from the PP altogether, he can certainly be an asset there, especially given this roster. I personally like him better as a triggerman on the sidewall than running point, but he can do either.

*Cue joke about Blashill playing Seider as the 7th DMan while giving Hronek 24 minutes a night again*

 

[DetroitRed]

One thing you have to say is that the guys who would have led the team in scoring missed almost half of the season or almost all of the season.

Points averaged out over 56 games (Hronek: 26 points/56 games)...
Fabbri: 34 points/56
Larkin: 29 points/56
Vrana: 40 points/56
Mantha: 30 points/56
Bertuzzi: 44 points/56

Simultaneously, if your top scoring defender is achieving half the points of your top forwards, that's pretty good, and obviously Hronek performed beyond that.

The other critique about him: Yes, but these are just first pass assists.
The answer: Okay, but we desperately needed a first-pass defender and a quarterback.

While I'm on that subject, he led the team in power play points and perhaps only Bertuzzi would have surpassed him in that area over 56 games.

Was he in way over his head as a #1? Yes! I admit.

But, top 25 in assists for defenders in the NHL besides leading the team there.

Low goal output? You got me there again, but six of the top ten goal-scoring defenders in the NHL have less than ten goals this season and our goal scoring powerhouse winger, Zadina had just six goals over 49 games.

Honestly though, the only defense I can make for him defensively is that he is young and isn't meant to be a number one. He's just not that kind of player and may never be. I know it sucks.

Everything else aside, to really appreciate Hronek, I think the key thing to look at is his assists per game average. Hronek's assist per game average is higher than all of the forwards I listed (higher than that of anyone who was on the team with him). Basically, he's kind of a playmaking defender and that's it. I don't look a gift horse in the mouth.

 

[DetroitRed]

What would they look like if this had been a normal length and healthy season?


Top forward vs. top defender:

Bertuzzi was on pace for 66 points in 82 games.
Hronek was on pace for 38 points over 82 games.

The last time we had an all-star defender was 2017-18 (Mike Green). Mike had 33 points in 66 games that season or was on pace for 41 points over an 82 game season. Green was -14 that season compared to -18 for Hronek this season. Age differences are Hronek 23 years ('20-2021) versus Green at 32 years (2017-18).

 

[Hen Kolland]

One thing you have to say is that the guys who would have led the team in scoring missed almost half of the season or almost all of the season.

Points averaged out over 56 games (Hronek: 26 points/56 games)...
Fabbri: 34 points/56
Larkin: 29 points/56
Vrana: 40 points/56
Mantha: 30 points/56
Bertuzzi: 44 points/56

Simultaneously, if your top scoring defender is achieving half the points of your top forwards, that's pretty good, and obviously Hronek performed beyond that.

The other critique about him: Yes, but these are just first pass assists.
The answer: Okay, but we desperately needed a first-pass defender and a quarterback.

While I'm on that subject, he led the team in power play points and perhaps only Bertuzzi would have surpassed him in that area over 56 games.

Was he in way over his head as a #1? Yes! I admit.

But, top 25 in assists for defenders in the NHL besides leading the team there.

Low goal output? You got me there again, but six of the top ten goal-scoring defenders in the NHL have less than ten goals this season and our goal scoring powerhouse winger, Zadina had just six goals over 49 games.

Honestly though, the only defense I can make for him defensively is that he is young and isn't meant to be a number one. He's just not that kind of player and may never be. I know it sucks.

Everything else aside, to really appreciate Hronek, I think the key thing to look at is his assists per game average. Hronek's assist per game average is higher than all of the forwards I listed (higher than that of anyone who was on the team with him). Basically, he's kind of a playmaking defender and that's it. I don't look a gift horse in the mouth.

Well good we have a first pass defenseman. Can we still get a real quarterback for the powerplay?

 

[DetroitRed]

Well good we have a first pass defenseman. Can we still get a real quarterback for the powerplay?

We changed the GM, so now maybe if we change some coaches, the director of player development and the director of amateur scouting, too... Otherwise, no: We got what we got.

 

[DetroitRed]

Wanna know what else? Hronek got paid less than anyone else on the payroll, including Weiss and Abdelkader. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Wanna know what else? Hronek got paid less than anyone else on the payroll, including Weiss and Abdelkader. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

I think you are really leaning into the straw man here. Nobody is mad that Hronek is around or is a bad player. He’s miscast in more than one way, and he could be a really really good piece if he was used reasonably.

No quarterbacking powerplays, but used as a shooting threat. No heavy usage, limit the minutes to keep him fresh. Prevent him from taking on the hardest defensive matchups, pair him with a strong defensive option and let him play a little more open offensively at 5 on 5.

 

[DetroitRed]

He’s miscast in more than one way, and he could be a really really good piece if he was used reasonably.

No quarterbacking powerplays, but used as a shooting threat. No heavy usage, limit the minutes to keep him fresh. Prevent him from taking on the hardest defensive matchups, pair him with a strong defensive option and let him play a little more open offensively at 5 on 5.

Well, I'm not trying to refute any of the above because I agree with almost all of it and in fact I've said so, almost to the letter, earlier in this thread (granted, I don't know how long ago, but it's in here).

Where I diverge is that despite not being a "real quarterback" he did perform second only to Bertuzzi in power play points per game average. So, it's reasonable to want better, but I don't think it's a reasonable area to be upset with him.

All that aside, what I don't understand about your position is how apparently nobody is allowed to speak anything good about the guy without tempering it with a full player development plan and team rebuild plan. Some of what you said should just be a given when somebody has already put that he was in over his head/shouldn't have been used as a number one. I mean, what else did you think that meant?

I'll say it again. He led the team in assists per game average, was second only to Bertuzzi in power play points per game average and did it while getting paid less than anybody else on the team.