Player Discussion How overpaid is Tavares

How overpaid is John Tavares at 11M

  • 40%

    Votes: 36 18.4%
  • 50%

    Votes: 43 21.9%
  • 60%

    Votes: 37 18.9%
  • 70%

    Votes: 17 8.7%
  • Less than 40%

    Votes: 33 16.8%
  • More than 70%

    Votes: 30 15.3%

  • Total voters
    196

The Shrike

Registered User
Jul 13, 2008
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241
Toronto
Looking at his stats Tavares has had an extremely bad year when it comes to his shooting percentage. Career he is 12.8%, but this season he is at 9.0. He looks to finish around 60 points this year, but it wouldn't surprise me if he jumped back to around 70 next year. Certainly not an $11 million player, but 5.5 would be an underpayment.
 

sxvnert

Registered User
Nov 23, 2015
11,897
6,909
How do you replace Tavares for 5.5mill?

It doesn’t actually solve anything because 5.5 retention + 5.5 replacement still equals 11 mill for a 2C
For one season. There are many centers out there @ 5.5 or below (preferably a younger one) who can keep up and gel with Nylander. I would rather have Domi extended paired with a defensive LW than the slow footed overpaid JT moving forward.
 

Aashir Mallik

Registered User
Apr 19, 2019
11,581
11,872
How do you replace Tavares for 5.5mill?

It doesn’t actually solve anything because 5.5 retention + 5.5 replacement still equals 11 mill for a 2C
You don’t sign Tavares at all. Use 7-8 to fill his 2C role and then use the remaining 3-4 million in other areas

Baring a league min Spezza/gio contract we shouldn’t be bringing this player back

The stats and eye test just don’t back up having him back 2-3 years out

Here’s a list of 5-6 mill players signed through at least this season

Hyman 63GP 46G 19A 65Pts
Zucker 54GP 10G 16A 26Pts
Barbashev 66GP 14G 24A 38Pts
Kuzmenko 56GP 13G 16A 29Pts
Rust 45GP 19G 18A 37Pts
Burakovsky 32GP 3G 8A 11Pts
Silfverberg 66GP 6G 10A 16Pts
Tarasenko 61GP 19G 25A 44Pts
Schwartz 47GP 11G 12A 23 Pts
Rakell 53GP 10G 8A 18Pts
Atkinson 62GP 13G 15A 28Pts
Bertuzzi 64GP 13G 18A 31Pts
Marchessault 66GP 37G 21A 58Pts
Anderson 62GP 8G 10A 18Pts
Danault 66GP 15G 24A 39Pts
Kempe 61GP 21G 36A 57Pts
Eriksson Ek 66GP 29G 31A 60Pts
D Strome 65GP 22G 29A 51Pts
Wilson 63GP 15G 13A 28Pts
Oshie 41GP 11G 8A 19Pts
Coyle 68GP 21G 31A 52Pts
Smith 59GP 11G 19A 30Pts
Trocheck 66GP 24G 38A 62 Pts
Pageau 65GP 8G 18A 26Pts
Palmieri 65GP 20G 19A 29Pts
E Kane 63GP 21G 17A 38Pts
RNH 63GP 16G 42A 58Pts
Konecny 61GP 27G 30A 57Pts
Farabee 67GP 19G 27A 46Pts
Buchnevich 64GP 24G 25A 49Pts
Teravainen 66GP 21G 26A 47Pts
Mangiapane 64GP 13G 24A 37Pts
Backlund 66GP 13G 21A 34Pts
Eberle 61GP 14A 23A 37Pts
Bjorkstrad 65GP 18G 29A 47Pts
Gourde 63GP 8G 18A 26Pts
McCann 64GP 27G 26A 53Pts
Compher 61GP 16G 21A 37Pts
Copp 65GP 10G 18A 28Pts
Granlund 52GP 9G 33A 42Pts
Schmaltz 64GP 19G 26A 45Pts
R Strome 64GP 11G 25A 36Pts
Johnson 52Gp 15G 9A 24Pts

Of this list only Hyman, RNH, Trocheck, Konecny, Coyle, Marchessault, Kempe, Eriksson Ek and McCann are outperforming Tavares in the worst year of his career.

Explain to me how Tavares at 5.5 would be considered a bad contract
Tavares this entire season, barring maybe 5 games has played with a top 5 ppg player, and a top 15 ppg player, and has barely been a 60 point player. If we played him with the linemates of some listed there, he’d barely touch 40.

And a lot of those guys listed player 3rd line minutes, so not only are they playing with worse players, but they are playing less than tavares. Put half of those guys beside nylander or Marner and watch how their production skyrockets
 

The Podium

Registered User
Feb 19, 2010
22,948
10,199
Toronto
You don’t sign Tavares at all. Use 7-8 to fill his 2C role and then use the remaining 3-4 million in other areas

Baring a league min Spezza/gio contract we shouldn’t be bringing this player back

The stats and eye test just don’t back up having him back 2-3 years out


Tavares this entire season, barring maybe 5 games has played with a top 5 ppg player, and a top 15 ppg player, and has barely been a 60 point player. If we played him with the linemates of some listed there, he’d barely touch 40.

And a lot of those guys listed player 3rd line minutes, so not only are they playing with worse players, but they are playing less than tavares. Put half of those guys beside nylander or Marner and watch how their production skyrockets

Tavares has 12 points in 17 games away from Marner and Nylander playing 3rd line competition.

For one season. There are many centers out there @ 5.5 or below (preferably a younger one) who can keep up and gel with Nylander. I would rather have Domi extended paired with a defensive LW than the slow footed overpaid JT moving forward.

Like who?
 

Machinae

Registered User
Jul 6, 2007
1,933
536
Mississauga, ON
Except he wasn’t a 1C on the Leafs. Matthews was always the 1C so they paid $11M to a 2C when they already had Kadri for $4.5M as a 30 goal scoring physical 2C. Shanahan / Dubas accelerated the Shanaplan and it didn't work and contributed to them having to set precedents on RFA contracts for Matthews and Marner. None of this is JT’s fault. It was management’s mistake.
If Boston signed Tavares and made him captain (ignore Bergeron for a second), do you think all of their upcoming RFAs would have demanded more money, or would they have respected the culture of "no one makes more than captain Tavares"?

This is an ego issue from the 3 stars.
 
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Arzak

Registered User
Mar 27, 2019
1,704
1,393
If Boston signed Tavares and made him captain (ignore Bergeron for a second), do you think all of their upcoming RFAs would have demanded more money, or would they have respected the culture of "no one makes more than captain Tavares"?

This is an ego issue from the 3 stars.

The question is how high were they willing to go? Can we just assume Boston was willing to pay 11M per year for JT ? We know they went for him since they asked Krejci to wave NMC to make cap space, but who knows what was max they were willing to spend on JT?

Also, they had a legitimate need for C. We did not. They had Krejci and Bergeron as there 1 and 2 C for a while (interchangeably since it was Krejci on the 1st line for the first part of their career and during their Cup run, with Bergy being 1C later).

It was an ego issue because we had Matthews as our biggest star and 1C. Can anyone wonder if Matthews's ego was bruised? Now he is playing 1a 1b C according to some and JT is the captain underpants now!

You can't compare it to Boston replacing the ageing Cs that won them the Cup. Hell, they are without any C right now, clearly getting JT back then wouldn't be the worst idea. SJ ? Oh boy can you imagine them with an additional 13M anchor? Then again they could offer 13M and no NMC and just flip him for picks year 2. No one ever said SJ wanted JT to play for them for 8 years at 13M.

One team had great franchise level C, no defense, no goalie to speak of. The other had D, goalie and ageing C (plus prime Pasta).

We didn't need JT and we couldn't afford him. Wrong combination for a UFA signing.
 
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notDatsyuk

Registered User
Jul 20, 2018
9,866
7,739
Here’s a list of 5-6 mill players signed through at least this season

Hyman 63GP 46G 19A 65Pts
Zucker 54GP 10G 16A 26Pts
Barbashev 66GP 14G 24A 38Pts
Kuzmenko 56GP 13G 16A 29Pts
Rust 45GP 19G 18A 37Pts
Burakovsky 32GP 3G 8A 11Pts
Silfverberg 66GP 6G 10A 16Pts
Tarasenko 61GP 19G 25A 44Pts
Schwartz 47GP 11G 12A 23 Pts
Rakell 53GP 10G 8A 18Pts
Atkinson 62GP 13G 15A 28Pts
Bertuzzi 64GP 13G 18A 31Pts
Marchessault 66GP 37G 21A 58Pts
Anderson 62GP 8G 10A 18Pts
Danault 66GP 15G 24A 39Pts
Kempe 61GP 21G 36A 57Pts
Eriksson Ek 66GP 29G 31A 60Pts
D Strome 65GP 22G 29A 51Pts
Wilson 63GP 15G 13A 28Pts
Oshie 41GP 11G 8A 19Pts
Coyle 68GP 21G 31A 52Pts
Smith 59GP 11G 19A 30Pts
Trocheck 66GP 24G 38A 62 Pts
Pageau 65GP 8G 18A 26Pts
Palmieri 65GP 20G 19A 29Pts
E Kane 63GP 21G 17A 38Pts
RNH 63GP 16G 42A 58Pts
Konecny 61GP 27G 30A 57Pts
Farabee 67GP 19G 27A 46Pts
Buchnevich 64GP 24G 25A 49Pts
Teravainen 66GP 21G 26A 47Pts
Mangiapane 64GP 13G 24A 37Pts
Backlund 66GP 13G 21A 34Pts
Eberle 61GP 14A 23A 37Pts
Bjorkstrad 65GP 18G 29A 47Pts
Gourde 63GP 8G 18A 26Pts
McCann 64GP 27G 26A 53Pts
Compher 61GP 16G 21A 37Pts
Copp 65GP 10G 18A 28Pts
Granlund 52GP 9G 33A 42Pts
Schmaltz 64GP 19G 26A 45Pts
R Strome 64GP 11G 25A 36Pts
Johnson 52Gp 15G 9A 24Pts

Of this list only Hyman, RNH, Trocheck, Konecny, Coyle, Marchessault, Kempe, Eriksson Ek and McCann are outperforming Tavares in the worst year of his career.

Explain to me how Tavares at 5.5 would be considered a bad contract
First, you're comparing Tavares' projected total over 82 games with other players' current totals.

If you just look at players with 60+ games (JT has played 63) the count is only 33. Of those, 14 have as many or more points, and two more are within a point or two.

He's right in the middle of the pack of players earning $5-6, and that's not even taking into consideration that he plays centre (usually a more productive position) and usually with one or the other of two of the best wingers in the league (currently tied for 6th in assists).
 
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Goose

Registered User
Apr 18, 2006
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Leafs got a completely reasonable return on this contract.

He’s not overpaid given the circumstances of his signing. He’s experiencing an expected and reasonable decline at the tail end of a UFA contract where the Leafs got a 1C without giving up assets.
 

Arzak

Registered User
Mar 27, 2019
1,704
1,393
Leafs got a completely reasonable return on this contract.

He’s not overpaid given the circumstances of his signing. He’s experiencing an expected and reasonable decline at the tail end of a UFA contract where the Leafs got a 1C without giving up assets.

If we for a second forget that we already had better 1C and the costs of cap capital, you still can't say it was without giving assets away.

Kadri was the first one to go, but we also lost draft capital we could otherwise keep, had we stayed away from JT.
 

Goose

Registered User
Apr 18, 2006
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2,756
If we for a second forget that we already had better 1C and the costs of cap capital, you still can't say it was without giving assets away.

Kadri was the first one to go, but we also lost draft capital we could otherwise keep, had we stayed away from JT.

I get that opportunity cost accounting is a thing in these situations, but no GM with a max spend team is ever walking away from JT in that situation, especially when it’s a hometown kid.

Even the Lightening were after him in spite of the cap hell they would have been in

There’s no scenario where JT wanted to come to the Leafs and a Leafs GM says thanks, but no thanks, especially when the Leafs were able to give up a year less on his contract than the Islanders were reportedly offering.

And he’s lived up to his end of the bargain, sure a bit more production would be nice, but he’s basically been point per game.

JT’s contract made a tough situation even tougher, but his contract is not the root of the problem in Toronto and it’s just plain silly to say there’s a scenario where the Leafs say no to him.
 
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ToneDog

56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Jun 11, 2017
23,857
22,068
Richmond Hill, ON
If we for a second forget that we already had better 1C and the costs of cap capital, you still can't say it was without giving assets away.

Kadri was the first one to go, but we also lost draft capital we could otherwise keep, had we stayed away from JT.
If the big 3 had some balls, they'd have beaten the Jackets, Habs, Panthers and there would be no regrets signing Tavares. At the end of the day, if the big 3 do not deliver, this team is not winning no matter who you add and the proof is in the pudding.
 

TMLife17

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If Tavares was making $8.5 mil he would be overpaid as per his production this year and a BAD contract.

At $11 mil he is among the top 10 highest contracts and he isn't even a PPG player anymore.

He is currently on pace for 26 goals and 59 points.

View attachment 835635
The funny part is that this is his playoff scoring pace almost exactly and people won’t admit he’s sucked.
 
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hotpaws

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Nov 21, 2009
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I get that opportunity cost accounting is a thing in these situations, but no GM with a max spend team is ever walking away from JT in that situation, especially when it’s a hometown kid.

Even the Lightening were after him in spite of the cap hell they would have been in

There’s no scenario where JT wanted to come to the Leafs and a Leafs GM says thanks, but no thanks, especially when the Leafs were able to give up a year less on his contract than the Islanders were reportedly offering.

And he’s lived up to his end of the bargain, sure a bit more production would be nice, but he’s basically been point per game.

JT’s contract made a tough situation even tougher, but his contract is not the root of the problem in Toronto and it’s just plain silly to say there’s a scenario where the Leafs say no to him.
JT is the biggest issue we have regardless how hard some fans are trying to prove otherwise . I don't a damn about him being form the area , nor do i care what another team may have offered him .

The fact is we had a much better num 1 C and a solid num 2 on a sweetheart deal . Signing JT was nothing more than Dubas wanting to make a big splash just like he did in Pitt by trading for EK , another player that didn't fill a void .

A GM's job is too build a team , not to just make splashy signings that don't do anything to advance the team and JT's signing did nothing to elevate the team .
 

Goose

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Apr 18, 2006
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JT is the biggest issue we have regardless how hard some fans are trying to prove otherwise . I don't a damn about him being form the area , nor do i care what another team may have offered him .

The fact is we had a much better num 1 C and a solid num 2 on a sweetheart deal . Signing JT was nothing more than Dubas wanting to make a big splash just like he did in Pitt by trading for EK , another player that didn't fill a void .

A GM's job is too build a team , not to just make splashy signings that don't do anything to advance the team and JT's signing did nothing to elevate the team .

Haha, "biggest issue", that's a good one. He may be currently the worst value contract on the Leafs, I'm not denying that, but it doesn't mean the contract was a mistake or that he's the "biggest issue".

However, my overall point is you're not operating in the real world. Hometowns don't turn down the biggest UFA to hit the market in several years for a price less than others are offering. Tavares is easily one of the top UFAs available in the last two decades, the idea of a Leafs GM coming out and saying "yeah, we could have had him for less than market, but we really lowballed him so he walked" just doesn't hold water.

No GM turns him down, period. The only one in any sport I can think of that might have the stones to turn away someone in that position is Belichick, if he believed it made sense. Even then, he wouldn't be immune to pressure from his ownership to sign him for off-ice reasons.

The only comparable I can think of in all of sports is the year the Rays made the series after basically turning down the option to pick up Barry Bonds. Even that isn't really analogous, as it was more about the media circus and distractions.

And it's easy to cry over losing Kadri now that he won a cup, but he was coming off another playoff series where he badly cost the team with undisciplined, emotional play, and it's not like the Leafs just lost the guy, he was traded for Kerfoot/Barrie, with Barrie's return being viewed favorably by most analysts.
 
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hotpaws

Registered User
Nov 21, 2009
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Haha, "biggest issue", that's a good one. He may be currently the worst value contract on the Leafs, I'm not denying that, but it doesn't mean the contract was a mistake or that he's the "biggest issue".

However, my overall point is you're not operating in the real world. Hometowns don't turn down the biggest UFA to hit the market in several years for a price less than others are offering. Tavares is easily one of the top UFAs available in the last two decades, the idea of a Leafs GM coming out and saying "yeah, we could have had him for less than market, but we really lowballed him so he walked" just doesn't hold water.

No GM turns him down, period. The only one in any sport I can think of that might have the stones to turn away someone in that position is Belichick, if he believed it made sense. Even then, he wouldn't be immune to pressure from his ownership to sign him for off-ice reasons.

The only comparable I can think of in all of sports is the year the Rays made the series after basically turning down the option to pick up Barry Bonds. Even that isn't really analogous, as it was more about the media circus and distractions.

And it's easy to cry over losing Kadri now that he won a cup, but he was coming off another playoff series where he badly cost the team with undisciplined, emotional play, and it's not like the Leafs just lost the guy, he was traded for Kerfoot/Barrie, with Barrie's return being viewed favorably by most analysts.
stop acting like JT is Crosby , he's a good player who was overrated playing on the Islanders where he was the only marquee player and never did squat there and hasn't done squat here

and Dubas got molested on the Kadri trade , he traded a solid 2nd line C who had years of term left on a sweetheart deal for 2 ufa's , one was a meh winger who Dubas thought could play 3rd line C and a D who couldn't play D and was terrified of any contact

i'm just glad i only have to listen to excuses for Johnny for 1 more season , hopefully
 
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Ports

Registered User
Dec 7, 2017
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If Boston signed Tavares and made him captain (ignore Bergeron for a second), do you think all of their upcoming RFAs would have demanded more money, or would they have respected the culture of "no one makes more than captain Tavares"?

This is an ego issue from the 3 stars.
Boston wouldn’t have paid them what they wanted anyway. The Bruins culture is miles above the Leafs culture and Tavares definitely isn’t Bergeron.
 
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Goose

Registered User
Apr 18, 2006
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stop acting like JT is Crosby , he's a good player who was overrated playing on the Islanders where he was the only marquee player and never did squat there and hasn't done squat here

and Dubas got molested on the Kadri trade , he traded a solid 2nd line C who had years of term left on a sweetheart deal for 2 ufa's , one was a meh winger who Dubas thought could play 3rd line C and a D who couldn't play D and was terrified of any contact

i'm just glad i only have to listen to excuses for Johnny for 1 more season , hopefully

When did I ever suggest JT was close to Crosby? In a million years I would never put JT close to Crosby.

I said he was one of the biggest UFAs in the last two decades. That is hard fact. Players of his quality rarely hit UFA where you get to sign them for just cap space. Who else is up there? Panarin, Richards, Hossa, Parise/Suter... going back to 06 Chara, who else?

Saying Dubas got molested on that trade only further makes the argument in favor of JT, as it means they had the capacity to do even more with an asset they had the luxury of trading that they probably otherwise wouldn't have.

He's not Crosby, he's not a superstar, but he's a legit 1C who's been one of the top 20ish forwards in the league for a decade. I don't know how you can reasonably ask for more than that.
 

JL17

Registered User
Mar 12, 2009
3,748
238
London
Leafs got a completely reasonable return on this contract.

He’s not overpaid given the circumstances of his signing. He’s experiencing an expected and reasonable decline at the tail end of a UFA contract where the Leafs got a 1C without giving up assets.
If you call 88 point career high and 1 series win to date a reasonable return that sounds like a guy that bet on himself willing to make $5 mil.

IMO he was overpaid for what he had produced to that point. Wasn’t a ppg player no playoff success. On a Stanley Cup winning team Tavares is at best your second line center.

At this stage on a much more offensively gifted team, a league that has risen offensively since his signing in Toronto and the guy is barely a point a game. Thats not worth 11 it’s a single digit 8-8.5 million dollar player. I said when they signed him it would be a mistake.
 

notDatsyuk

Registered User
Jul 20, 2018
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When did I ever suggest JT was close to Crosby? In a million years I would never put JT close to Crosby.

I said he was one of the biggest UFAs in the last two decades. That is hard fact. Players of his quality rarely hit UFA where you get to sign them for just cap space. Who else is up there? Panarin, Richards, Hossa, Parise/Suter... going back to 06 Chara, who else?

Saying Dubas got molested on that trade only further makes the argument in favor of JT, as it means they had the capacity to do even more with an asset they had the luxury of trading that they probably otherwise wouldn't have.

He's not Crosby, he's not a superstar, but he's a legit 1C who's been one of the top 20ish forwards in the league for a decade. I don't know how you can reasonably ask for more than that.
It really doesn't matter how good you think he may have been.

He was not signed as a 1C, but as a 2C. The team had a good 2C for a much lower cost and much more urgent slots to fill - paying $11M for an unnecessary 2C was a bad move.
 
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TMLife17

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It really doesn't matter how good you think he may have been.

He was not signed as a 1C, but as a 2C. The team had a good 2C for a much lower cost and much more urgent slots to fill - paying $11M for an unnecessary 2C was a bad move.
In before “is malkin a 2c?”
 
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TMLife17

Is this approved?
Oct 14, 2021
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Scary stat they showed - most slot shots:

Matthews 175 slot shots, 55 goals
MacKinnon 170 slot shots, 42 goals
Tavares 170 slot shots, 21 goals
So MacK is twice as good, means JT is worth 6.3M right? Probably not far off.
 

Squiffy

Victims, rn't we all
Oct 21, 2006
13,590
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This thread sucks. JT is overpaid, he has one more year after this, he scores ppg for life of contract and it is what it is.

IMG_3081.jpeg
 
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