Player Discussion How overpaid is Tavares

[kevsh]

Do we resign Tavares when his deal is done, I personally would only do it if hes agrees to 4m for 3 years. Anything over that, I will let him walk. Currently he's probably playing around a 7m dollar player.

If Shanahan is still here, they'll probably try to re-sign him but it would be much smarter to let him walk. Outside of winning faceoffs, his overall contribution is on a steady decline. He's slow, doesn't elevate anyone he plays with, disappears for long stretches and worse he hasn't proven himself to be an effective leader.

Use the cap space his departure will free up and find a legit 2C that can skate, win a faceoff occasionally and is ideally under 30 years old. Then hand the "C" to Reilly and maybe the team reinvents itself somewhat with a new face in the top 6 and new leader.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

I guess that's where we differ.

In my world the sky is blue and the 1C and the 2C on the same team, can be viewed as comparable. If the 2C is being paid $11M it's perfectly reasonable for the 1C to point to that amount and argue that he should be paid either similarly or perhaps more.



Yes, JT is only valid as an internal comparable to 34 and 16, if he has signed with the Toronto Maple. Glad we finally cleared that up.

It's amazing how when another player on another team signs for less than a comparable Maple Leaf...they argue that different markets have their own internal cap...but we have to compare ours to our ability to pay....amazing dekes by Dekes.

 

[ITM]

A good playoffs can shift the weight of the contract value entirely.

In the first half of the contract we got value according to fair market forces available to Tavares.

It's the imported future value of Matthews and Marner's second contracts that skewed Tavares' then and present contract value.

I don't think there's any reason to believe Treliving and Shanahan don't see future needs including lesser offers for Tavares should he remain with the club. Everything Treliving has attempted to do since his arrival speaks to this awareness.

It's not a situation of Treliving's doing. Sure, he's a buffer for Shanahan's ultimate accountability. But that's not until at least the season after Tavares' departure or comparatively modest re-signing, because that's the real-world situation given the means available that we're in. It's a window, albeit a smaller window than anyone anticipated, but it will be the first opportunity to materially change our club in a manner closest to a restart.

For the serious and not so serious fan alike, definitely an exercise of attrition. But that's where we are, so buckle up buttercups..."If you think there's no pain coming...there's [more] pain coming.".

 

[Ports]

I think it was a coincidence that Matthews looking at 11 million to squeeze in between Jack and Connor… aligned with the most desired UFA to come along in years.

The UFA money dropped from 13 million to 11 million because Tavares personally lowered it to come home.

In 2018, John Tavares was going to set the UFA benchmark in salary… EK quickly followed suit.

Auston or Mitch were never in a position to ask for more than UFA Tavares or EK money.

All teams and GMs work like that… however, for some reason, Dubas gave M&M money that was on the UFA level.

M&M should have been given 10.5 and 9.5.

Tavares is worth about $7.5 million right now… however, in the real world… you can’t just go out and get another John Tavares for $7-8 million.

Why get another Tavares ? It’s not like he’s Mark Messier. Why not get bigger, younger and tougher up the middle. 50-60 points isn’t that difficult to replace.

 

[Gallagbi]

Nothing would stop them demanding whatever they want to demand. But for the 4th or 5th time, your alternate reality example would not be an INTERNAL salary comparison, which is what they partially used in my opinion.

Internal comparisons don't really hold up in negotiations, especially if both sides want to get it done. There's just too many alternative data points to create a better sample, both for players/agents and the teams

 

[egd27]

Internal comparisons don't really hold up in negotiations, especially if both sides want to get it done. There's just too many alternative data points to create a better sample, both for players/agents and the teams

May I ask how you know this ?

 

[Dekes For Days]

If you can't understand why there is a difference between how salary arbitration works and a contract negotiation between a player (agent) and a GM then I see why you are confused.

There are differences between the two types of contract negotiations, but the very basic principles of what being 'comparable' means is not one of them.

Nothing would stop them demanding whatever they want to demand. But for the 4th or 5th time, your alternate reality example would not be an INTERNAL salary comparison, which is what they partially used in my opinion.

If nothing would stop them from demanding whatever they want to demand, then it doesn't matter whether it was internal or external. Even in your world where Tavares is relevant, he's still irrelevant, because if Tavares wasn't here at 11m, he'd be somewhere else for 11m-13m, and with your interpretation of how contract negotiations work, they could just as easily use that to make the same demands and you're in the exact same position. It doesn't change anything. In fact, in this world where Tavares is relevant, it could be argued that Tavares signing elsewhere for more money would have a negative influence on our negotiations.

My claim that he said he wanted to hear teams plans for him without talking actual dollars has somehow morphed into JT disputing my claim because he paid too much tax?

The CRA appeal notes that Tavares "rejected higher offers from other teams, including a seven-year, $91-million contract from the San Jose Sharks" which disputes your claim that Tavares didn't get any offers with numbers.

Also, these claims of reported offers are nowhere to be seen.

Are... you serious? Everyone and everywhere was reporting on it in that free agency period and negotiation window, and google is littered with articles and stuff all about this.

It's amazing how when another player on another team signs for less than a comparable Maple Leaf...they argue that different markets have their own internal cap...but we have to compare ours to our ability to pay....amazing dekes by Dekes.

To be clear, you're attributing an argument to me that I have not made, and then claiming that staying consistent to my actual statements is "deking"...

 

[Gallagbi]

May I ask how you know this ?

You get a good sense following the league, some of it is common sense from the situations.

I'd throw in personal experience, but my realm isn't pro sports, so take it with a grain of salt on that front if needed.

 

[Bomber0104]

You get a good sense following the league, some of it is common sense from the situations.

I'd throw in personal experience, but my realm isn't pro sports, so take it with a grain of salt on that front if needed.

Here's Nylanders agent expressly stating he was using internal comparables during his first RFA negotiation.

Gross: In any contract, there is the macro and the micro. The macro is the entire NHL. You kind of use the macro more in arbitration than you do in a negotiation for an RFA like this. A big part of our focus was on the Leafs. Where does Willy fit in on the Leafs? Where will Willy fit in moving forward on the Leafs? We really tried to make that a focus of this negotiation. There are a lot of good contracts out there and they definitely came into play, but moving forward, where is he going to be within this team? This is really where he is employed. That seemed to be the focus on our side. That is what we really tried to accomplish.

Following your own team a little more closely first would probably be a better place to start, rahter than your "good sense following the league"

 

[egd27]

Even in your world where Tavares is relevant, he's still irrelevant, because if Tavares wasn't here at 11m, he'd be somewhere else for 11m-13m, and with your interpretation of how contract negotiations work, they could just as easily use that to make the same demands and you're in the exact same position. It doesn't change anything.

In my world Tavares is here at 11m, where is he in your world?

 

[hamzarocks]

The most popular option seems to be 50%

Leaf fans peg Tavares at 5.5M for 2023-2024 season which seems to be fair and realistic

1 more year then Tavares either goes down to sub 5M contract if he performs at similar rate next year, or he gets booted out and is a guy we can all pretend never existed for the organization

 

[TMLife17]

The most popular option seems to be 50%

Leaf fans peg Tavares at 5.5M for 2023-2024 season which seems to be fair and realistic

1 more year then Tavares either goes down to sub 5M contract if he performs at similar rate next year, or he gets booted out and is a guy we can all pretend never existed for the organization

His destiny is to be blamed for the failure of this core. Trust me I am not a fan and think he’s a boat anchor but I’m not sure this core wins with anyone else eating his 11M.

But that’s his destiny. Another excuse for the soft core.

 

[hamzarocks]

His destiny is to be blamed for the failure of this core. Trust me I am not a fan and think he’s a boat anchor but I’m not sure this core wins with anyone else eating his 11M.

But that’s his destiny. Another excuse for the soft core.

He is part of the soft core, the captain of the soft core and the worsy performer statistically in the reg and playoffs of the soft core

I don't like 34, 16 and 88s contract negotiation tactics and poor playoff pkay either, but we are stuck with them for better or worse

Tavares we dont have to extend. Hopefully management can assess if he is worth keeping around on another deal if we have 2 more failed playoff runs

At the minimum he should lose captaincy on his next deal if we falter again this and next year

Take the C and give to someone else, have him as a 3C or 3LW role and have his salary at 4.5M-5M will go a ling way to people being patient with his declining effort and play

 

[darrylsittler27]

Dubas liked skill and speed.Dubas signed Tavares? We must convince Tavares to retire and go upstairs. We can't pay a 3c that money, no one can.

 

[Dekes For Days]

In my world Tavares is here at 11m, where is he in your world?

In the NHL world, it doesn't matter where he is.

 

[Arzak]

In my world Tavares is here at 11m, where is he in your world?

In the NHL world, it doesn't matter where he is.

It's funny, when asked a straight question, do you believe in internal cap structure, you deflect. Yet every answer is a denial of the internal cap structure.

Yes, his contract would be relevant anywhere and one more time, yes his contract is more relevant as an internal comparable. The fact that it was handled by the same GM adds even more gravy.

We can debate how big of a role internal cap structure plays, especially here, but denying its effect altogether is foolish.

 

[Mess]

If Tavares was making $8.5 mil he would be overpaid as per his production this year and a BAD contract.

At $11 mil he is among the top 10 highest contracts and he isn't even a PPG player anymore.

He is currently on pace for 26 goals and 59 points.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It's funny, when asked a straight question, do you believe in internal cap structure, you deflect. Yet every answer is a denial of the internal cap structure.

First off, you didn't ask "do you believe in internal cap structure".
Second, I gave you multiple direct and clear answers, not deflections.
Third, I've expanded further in discussions with others in this thread that you've clearly read.
So it's unclear how you're still unclear.

If one really tried, and dug throughout history, one could argue that in rare cases, the willingness for a core member to push things less in negotiations and accept a more player friendly contract has potentially had an impact on another core member of similar contract status doing similar. But when it comes to "internal cap structure", that's pretty much it. There is no evidence of an increasing pull being a thing, much less an increasing pull on post-ELC contracts because a team signed a big UFA, much less a post-ELC signee accomplishing anything by pointing at a UFA acquisition and saying "gimme". That's just some weird conspiracy theory that only came into existence when people saw the RFA contracts, and instead of learning why they actually happened, pointed at the easiest things to blame in anger.

The funny thing is, in the only way that any "internal cap structure" has ever existed in the NHL, Tavares making a choice to throw away upwards of 14 million dollars to sign for a lower AAV in Toronto, would be a good thing, and if it were to have any impacts on the negotiations at all, it is something that has only ever had a decreasing effect.

 

[Arzak]

First off, you didn't ask "do you believe in internal cap structure".

Didn't I ?

Are you suggesting our internal cap structure has no bearings on future contracts?

I might as well try it again. Do you believe in internal cap structure? Yay or nay ?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Didn't I ?I might as well try it again. Do you believe in internal cap structure?

No, you didn't, but both that and the question you actually asked were answered. I'm not sure why you're asking again when the answer is literally in the post above that you're responding to. You just have to read past the first sentence.

 

[notDatsyuk]

The most popular option seems to be 50%

Leaf fans peg Tavares at 5.5M for 2023-2024 season which seems to be fair and realistic

1 more year then Tavares either goes down to sub 5M contract if he performs at similar rate next year, or he gets booted out and is a guy we can all pretend never existed for the organization

Another way to look at it is that 84.4% think he is overpaid by at least 40%, which means he's worth no more than $6.6.

But there is one poster who thinks he's still worth $11.

Didn't I ?



I might as well try it again. Do you believe in internal cap structure? Yay or nay ?

Why are you still trying to nail jelly to the wall?

 

[darrylsittler27]

Tavares decline because of his age and lack of speed is very pronounced and he is lucky who he plays with. You are looking at 49 pts next year of easily replaceable production. That contract is the difference. No team would pay that nor could they. He needs to retire.

 

[The Podium]

If Tavares was making $8.5 mil he would be overpaid as per his production this year and a BAD contract.

At $11 mil he is among the top 10 highest contracts and he isn't even a PPG player anymore.

He is currently on pace for 26 goals and 59 points.

View attachment 835635

Here’s a list of 5-6 mill players signed through at least this season

Hyman 63GP 46G 19A 65Pts
Zucker 54GP 10G 16A 26Pts
Barbashev 66GP 14G 24A 38Pts
Kuzmenko 56GP 13G 16A 29Pts
Rust 45GP 19G 18A 37Pts
Burakovsky 32GP 3G 8A 11Pts
Silfverberg 66GP 6G 10A 16Pts
Tarasenko 61GP 19G 25A 44Pts
Schwartz 47GP 11G 12A 23 Pts
Rakell 53GP 10G 8A 18Pts
Atkinson 62GP 13G 15A 28Pts
Bertuzzi 64GP 13G 18A 31Pts
Marchessault 66GP 37G 21A 58Pts
Anderson 62GP 8G 10A 18Pts
Danault 66GP 15G 24A 39Pts
Kempe 61GP 21G 36A 57Pts
Eriksson Ek 66GP 29G 31A 60Pts
D Strome 65GP 22G 29A 51Pts
Wilson 63GP 15G 13A 28Pts
Oshie 41GP 11G 8A 19Pts
Coyle 68GP 21G 31A 52Pts
Smith 59GP 11G 19A 30Pts
Trocheck 66GP 24G 38A 62 Pts
Pageau 65GP 8G 18A 26Pts
Palmieri 65GP 20G 19A 29Pts
E Kane 63GP 21G 17A 38Pts
RNH 63GP 16G 42A 58Pts
Konecny 61GP 27G 30A 57Pts
Farabee 67GP 19G 27A 46Pts
Buchnevich 64GP 24G 25A 49Pts
Teravainen 66GP 21G 26A 47Pts
Mangiapane 64GP 13G 24A 37Pts
Backlund 66GP 13G 21A 34Pts
Eberle 61GP 14A 23A 37Pts
Bjorkstrad 65GP 18G 29A 47Pts
Gourde 63GP 8G 18A 26Pts
McCann 64GP 27G 26A 53Pts
Compher 61GP 16G 21A 37Pts
Copp 65GP 10G 18A 28Pts
Granlund 52GP 9G 33A 42Pts
Schmaltz 64GP 19G 26A 45Pts
R Strome 64GP 11G 25A 36Pts
Johnson 52Gp 15G 9A 24Pts

Of this list only Hyman, RNH, Trocheck, Konecny, Coyle, Marchessault, Kempe, Eriksson Ek and McCann are outperforming Tavares in the worst year of his career.

Explain to me how Tavares at 5.5 would be considered a bad contract

 

[sxvnert]

The most popular option seems to be 50%

Leaf fans peg Tavares at 5.5M for 2023-2024 season which seems to be fair and realistic

1 more year then Tavares either goes down to sub 5M contract if he performs at similar rate next year, or he gets booted out and is a guy we can all pretend never existed for the organization

Any team would take him for next to nothing on a 1yr @ 5.5M. This will allow JT to choose any team he wants so long as its not toronto. Leafs will also gain a much needed 5.5M. Its a win win for everyone involved. Extending his contract (at any amount) is simply unacceptable.

 

[The Podium]

Any team would take him for next to nothing on a 1yr @ 5.5M. This will allow JT to choose any team he wants so long as its not toronto. Leafs will also gain a much needed 5.5M. Its a win win for everyone involved. Extending his contract (at any amount) is simply unacceptable.

How do you replace Tavares for 5.5mill?

It doesn’t actually solve anything because 5.5 retention + 5.5 replacement still equals 11 mill for a 2C