Player Discussion How overpaid is Tavares

[notDatsyuk]

This thread sucks. JT is overpaid, he has one more year after this, he scores ppg for life of contract and it is what it is.

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JT is not PPG with the Leafs. He was over it once in six seasons as a Leaf (his first) and barely made it one other time.

If he maintains his current rate for the rest of this season, he'll need 105 points next season to hit that mark as a Leaf.

 

[Goose]

Edit: not worth it, I'm an idiot for wasting my time arguing with certain posters in this thread. Keep hating on Tavares for *checks notes* producing exactly how he was projected to produce.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

JT is not PPG with the Leafs. He was over it once in six seasons as a Leaf (his first) and barely made it one other time.

If he maintains his current rate for the rest of this season, he'll need 105 points next season to hit that mark as a Leaf.

Wrong. Twice he was PPG, 3 times he was basically PPG or close enough. Very much in line with his NYI stats and only once, this year, was he not close.

You don’t know what you’re talking about.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Looking at his stats Tavares has had an extremely bad year when it comes to his shooting percentage. Career he is 12.8%, but this season he is at 9.0. He looks to finish around 60 points this year, but it wouldn't surprise me if he jumped back to around 70 next year.

Yeah, it's likely he rebounds. He has the 2nd most goals below expected in the league this year, and his most common linemate has the 9th most goals below expected in the league this year. This season is a lot more about him not being rewarded for his good play than him playing poorly.

 

[hotpaws]

Edit: not worth it, I'm an idiot for wasting my time arguing with certain posters in this thread. Keep hating on Tavares for *checks notes* producing exactly how he was projected to produce.

he was brought in to help elevate not simply to get roughly a ppg with better line mates and with the league scoring rising , his signing did nothing to advance the team but for some reason a fan of the team doesn't seem to give a damn about that

Wrong. Twice he was PPG, 3 times he was basically PPG or close enough. Very much in line with his NYI stats and only once, this year, was he not close.

You don’t know what you’re talking about.

what was he wrong about ? he said he was ppg twice and your either ppg or your not and he wasn't even though he's played with much better line mates and while league scoring has risen

 

[WillyC]

The Tavares haters must be fuming at our Captain for scoring a goal and an assist last night.

 

[Maple Leaf]

If Tavares was making $8.5 mil he would be overpaid as per his production this year and a BAD contract.

At $11 mil he is among the top 10 highest contracts and he isn't even a PPG player anymore.

He is currently on pace for 26 goals and 59 points.

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Man he is too slow end of story

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

JT is not PPG with the Leafs. He was over it once in six seasons as a Leaf (his first) and barely made it one other time.

If he maintains his current rate for the rest of this season, he'll need 105 points next season to hit that mark as a Leaf.

I thought that if we signed a PPG player from a shitty team to our team chock full of talent that JT would be getting consideringly more points than he did with the NYI. He is literally the same player here as he was there....so it wasn't what most thought he would be.

 

[Squiffy]

Impact on the cap and overall salary structure is not JT’s problem, that’s on Dubas.

 

[Stephen]

The Tavares haters must be fuming at our Captain for scoring a goal and an assist last night.

It's great that he's doing his job and scoring. The problem has been the frequency of that occurring... but the sight of Tavares scoring on a breakaway is so rare and unusual it's definitely something to be enjoyed, like a solar eclipse or a shooting star haha.

 

[All Mod Cons]

The Tavares haters must be fuming at our Captain for scoring a goal and an assist last night.

I think the Tavares haters are over the moon after the odd game he does something positive. They seem to be fuming at the 85% of games where he is absolutely useless.

Being 94th in scoring, on 11mil a year, behind the likes of Nelson, Coyle, Strome, Vatrano and Mason Marchment (who the DFC explained is worse than Malgin), he should be as embarrassed with his play as the haters are.

 

[Stephen]

Impact on the cap and overall salary structure is not JT’s problem, that’s on Dubas.

Dubas has newer problems now.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

When you look at the Tavares signing thread from back in the day, it's clear everyone knew the last year or two of this contract would hurt.

The difference is we all thought he'd be a 40 goal/90 point player the first 4/5 seasons to make up for it. And we estimated a cup or two by now, or at the very least numerous VERY deep playoff runs by year 6.

 

[IPS]

I think the Tavares haters are over the moon after the odd game he does something positive. They seem to be fuming at the 85% of games where he is absolutely useless.

Being 94th in scoring, on 11mil a year, behind the likes of Nelson, Coyle, Strome, Vatrano and Mason Marchment (who the DFC explained is worse than Malgin), he should be as embarrassed with his play as the haters are.

Almost forgot about this what a classic

 

[Zybalto]

Current Tavares market value this season via the Athletic.

Offensive rating: 88th percentile
Defensive rating: 84th percentile

Market value: 9 million

The lack of finish, especially during one of the worst slumps of his career in January (0 points in 9 games) really hurt his overall value this season but his insanely good career best defensive numbers have made up much of the ground. Much like he went from a just good faceoff guy to perennial elite top 10 faceoff guy a few years ago, through sheer hard work, Tavares has transformed into a massive defensive plus after years of being an offense only guy.

Hope he brings it in big moments this playoffs as he has shown at times for the team the last couple of years.

 

[Its not your fault]

I was looking at it like beginning of the season.
If you can sign ROR for 4.25mil for 4 yrs or JT at 11mil for 2 years. I would choose ROR

Hypothetical at best O Rielly didn't do much more then JT while he was here. To think JTs ask would be that isn't plausible. But yes only in your scenario would this be correct.
Reality would say you're snuffing out possible top 15 franchise Career scoring. Consistency among the best in his time period. But neither have won a cup for the Leafs. Yet you hate the player you have and wish for someone else. Neither have won a cup for your team. Maybe you need to find more pride in what you like/love before it gives back the ultimate prize.

 

[IPS]

Current Tavares market value this season via the Athletic.

Offensive rating: 88th percentile
Defensive rating: 84th percentile

Market value: 9 million

The lack of finish, especially during one of the worst slumps of his career in January (0 points in 9 games) really hurt his overall value this season but his insanely good career best defensive numbers have made up much of the ground. Much like he went from a just good faceoff guy to perennial elite top 10 faceoff guy a few years ago, through sheer hard work, Tavares has transformed into a massive defensive plus after years of being an offense only guy.

Hope he brings it in big moments this playoffs as he has shown at times for the team the last couple of years.

I've watched almost every game of Tavares' career as a Leaf. What I'm seeing in his defensive play seems no different than any of his previous years, it's all the same strengths and weaknesses. I'll save my detailed opinion of his defensive games because it's already been iterated many times. If his defensive game is just so crazy elite this year I guess I'm just dumb and have no idea what I'm watching.

 

[hotpaws]

I've watched almost every game of Tavares' career as a Leaf. What I'm seeing in his defensive play seems no different than any of his previous years, it's all the same strengths and weaknesses. I'll save my detailed opinion of his defensive games because it's already been iterated many times. If his defensive game is just so crazy elite this year I guess I'm just dumb and have no idea what I'm watching.

your right there's no difference in his defensive game , it's as mediocre as always regardless how many times his publicist keeps posting the same shot volume stats that he mined to find

even last night on his 2 pts the question that should be asked is why was he was walking back hanging behind their D hoping there's a turnover to get fed on a breakaway , that's not good defensive play from your center

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

It's great that he's doing his job and scoring. The problem has been the frequency of that occurring... but the sight of Tavares scoring on a breakaway is so rare and unusual it's definitely something to be enjoyed, like a solar eclipse or a shooting star haha.

When I told my son that JT scored on a breakaway...he asked if the other teams players thought the play was blown dead. That's how rare those kind of goals are from our fleet footed captain.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Current Tavares market value this season via the Athletic.

Offensive rating: 88th percentile
Defensive rating: 84th percentile

Market value: 9 million

The lack of finish, especially during one of the worst slumps of his career in January (0 points in 9 games) really hurt his overall value this season but his insanely good career best defensive numbers have made up much of the ground. Much like he went from a just good faceoff guy to perennial elite top 10 faceoff guy a few years ago, through sheer hard work, Tavares has transformed into a massive defensive plus after years of being an offense only guy.

Hope he brings it in big moments this playoffs as he has shown at times for the team the last couple of years.

Why do you keep posting this as if it means anything? It is as useful as a JFresh graph.

 

[Racer88]

Why do you keep posting this as if it means anything? It is as useful as a JFresh graph.

The athletic…….just someone’s opinion lol

 

[notDatsyuk]

Wrong. Twice he was PPG, 3 times he was basically PPG or close enough. Very much in line with his NYI stats and only once, this year, was he not close.

You don’t know what you’re talking about.

I'm wrong?

18-19: 88 points in 82 games: over PPG
19-20: 60 points in 63 games: under PPG
20-21: 50 points in 56 games: under PPG
21-22: 76 points in 79 games: under PPG
22-23: 80 points in 80 games: just PPG
23-24: 48 points in 64 games: under PPG

Once over (18-19) and barely made it one other time (22-23).

Career as a Leaf: 402 points in 424 games - not PPG.

Please explain where I am wrong.

 

[Zybalto]

Why do you keep posting this as if it means anything? It is as useful as a JFresh graph.

These graphs/calculations are representation of statistics from the season.

It's not an opinion one way or another and isn't gospel but the same stats also have McDavid/Kucherov/MacKinnon/Matthews as the MVP frontrunners

Taking away the fact Tavares somehow has the lowest xGA out of all the big 4 this season, the goals against number is really telling considering Tavares has played over half his minutes with Nylander this season.

5v5 Goals against/60 this year:

Marner: 2.12
Matthews: 2.25
Taveras: 2.27
Nylander: 3.05

Still a small sample size of only 65ish games or so though but when career best underlying stats and actual outcomes line up strongly, Tavares just may be having a great defensive season, no matter how anyone else is thinking about it.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Edit: not worth it, I'm an idiot for wasting my time arguing with certain posters in this thread. Keep hating on Tavares for *checks notes* producing exactly how he was projected to produce.

You clearly completely missed the point.

I don't hate Tavares (which seems to be the only rebuttal some posters can make against my posts).

I think signing him was a mistake, made by Dubas and maybe Shanahan. That's not JT's fault, and I have never blamed him.

 

[Darch]

Everyone knew he wasn't going to be worth the pay in the later years of his contract. It was the cost of getting him off the Island.