Player Discussion How overpaid is Tavares

[Dekes For Days]

First off, you found that convoluted? Sorry, I thought by just listing the 4 points step by step it would be pretty easy to follow.
Secondly, if they pointed to Tavares in San Jose, then there wouldn't be an internal salary comparison to be made which was the point of premise.

The steps were easy to follow, but the argument itself was a mess.
Where Tavares signed doesn't seem to matter much in the scenario you created.

You laughed off the idea that there are rules and established ways that contracts are negotiated, and the idea that comparables must be comparable, and essentially argued that they just point to whatever and whoever they want for whatever reason - no matter how ridiculous - and blackmail the team to get it. But now you're attempting to argue that all players that have signed with a different team aren't valid as comparables? Which not only contradicts your original argument, but would essentially destroy the entire concept of comparables as a thing in the first place...

A completely different kind of contract? Who cares! Agents do whatever they want!
That contract signed in a different location? Irrelevant! Can't be used! An agent would never!

So now you are privy to information that is not public...JT insisted he didn't want to talk dollars and cents during his negotiations, yet you still say he somehow did with teams that offered him more than the Leafs did....lovely. I already posted the link a while ago and you dismissed the article because it didn't fit your narrative that we got JT at a discount of up to $2M.

No, the reported offers were public information. I don't know where you got the idea that nobody ever said a number to Tavares, and I have no idea what link you're talking about, but even according to the recent CRA appeal, Tavares himself disputes your claim. I think you're mistaking Tavares' desire to decide based on the team and situation over the specific monetary details, and somehow turning it into a belief that nobody involved had any clue what range any teams were willing to offer, despite it being widely reported.

 

[Budz]

As has been pointed out several times, no, he is not more effective in the playoffs. Compared to the regular season:

Tavares: 27% fewer points per game in the playoffs
Marner: 24% fewer points per game
Matthews: 18% fewer points per game
Nylander: 2% fewer points per game

Points are the only measure of success, ok gotcha. We are also using small sample sizes and cherry picking stats.

My eyes tell me Tavares will be decent in playoffs.

 

[egd27]

The steps were easy to follow, but the argument itself was a mess.
Where Tavares signed doesn't seem to matter much in the scenario you created.

It seems you don't understand the meaning of the term "internal salary structure". If Tavares didn't sign with the Leafs, his salary would not be "internal" to the Leafs, and no one would suggest his contract was used as an "internal" benchmark for comparison.

You laughed off the idea that there are rules and established ways that contracts are negotiated, and the idea that comparables must be comparable, and essentially argued that they just point to whatever and whoever they want for whatever reason - no matter how ridiculous - and blackmail the team to get it. But now you're attempting to argue that all players that have signed with a different team aren't valid as comparables? Which not only contradicts your original argument, but would essentially destroy the entire concept of comparables as a thing in the first place...

Ah the classic Deke's deflection attempt. I most certainly did not attempt to argue that.

I did however enjoy your take on " A proof is a proof. And when you have a good proof, it's because it's proven" using "comparables"

 

[hotpaws]

Points are the only measure of success, ok gotcha. We are also using small sample sizes and cherry picking stats.

My eyes tell me Tavares will be decent in playoffs.

he's had exactly 1 good playoffs series his entire career and none with us

 

[hotpaws]

It seems you don't understand the meaning of the term "internal salary structure". If Tavares didn't sign with the Leafs, his salary would not be "internal" to the Leafs, and no one would suggest his contract was used as an "internal" benchmark for comparison.



Ah the classic Deke's deflection attempt. I most certainly did not attempt to argue that.

I did however enjoy your take on " A proof is a proof. And when you have a good proof, it's because it's proven" using "comparables"

why are you wasting time with the stickhandler

 

[notDatsyuk]

Points are the only measure of success, ok gotcha. We are also using small sample sizes and cherry picking stats.

My eyes tell me Tavares will be decent in playoffs.

I'm not sure why every game all of them have ever played as a Maple Leaf is either a small sample size or cherry picking.

If your eyes tell you Tavares will be decent in the playoffs, they tell you something different than what mine tell me. I hope you're right, but I don't expect it.

 

[egd27]

why are you wasting time with the stickhandler

no games til Thursday and I'm bored at work

 

[The Best Leafs Everr]

The question is much easier answered if you think of it like "if JT was a UFA this coming summer, what would you sign him for?"

Maybe like a 2 yr deal at $4M per?

Then consider he's actually signed next year and there is the possibility of a further regression. So he's definitely overpaid now but 12 months from now we may be looking at moving on altogether (or one of those Spezza league min deals even)

League minimum or bust. The guys is simply pathetic and doesn’t provide anything to the team.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It seems you don't understand the meaning of the term "internal salary structure".

I understand that you're focusing exclusively on this theorized "internal salary structure" concept that one contract supposedly dictated for a bunch of completely unrelated contracts, in order to avoid acknowledging the fundamental problems, inconsistencies, and implications of your claims.

If an agent is going to YOLO negotiations, claim unrelated comparables, and point to whoever and whatever they want for whatever reason, and then blackmail to get it, they're not going to suddenly draw the line at where the signing happened. What exactly stops them from demanding the 13m San Jose pays a worse player than them?

I most certainly did not attempt to argue that.

Except you did. Your entire argument is based on the idea that he's only valid as a comparable if Toronto signs him. Otherwise, under the premise that UFA contracts can be used for post-ELC negotiations, Tavares signing for more money elsewhere would have just allowed them to raise the ask even more.

 

[egd27]

If an agent is going to YOLO negotiations, claim unrelated comparables, and point to whoever and whatever they want for whatever reason, and then blackmail to get it, they're not going to suddenly draw the line at where the signing happened. What exactly stops them from demanding the 13m San Jose pays a worse player than them?

I guess that's where we differ.

In my world the sky is blue and the 1C and the 2C on the same team, can be viewed as comparable. If the 2C is being paid $11M it's perfectly reasonable for the 1C to point to that amount and argue that he should be paid either similarly or perhaps more.

Your entire argument is based on the idea that he's only valid as a comparable if Toronto signs him.

Yes, JT is only valid as an internal comparable to 34 and 16, if he has signed with the Toronto Maple. Glad we finally cleared that up.

 

[Dekes For Days]

In my world the sky is blue and the 1C and the 2C on the same team, can be viewed as comparable.

In the NHL world, the sky is blue and comparables aren't limited to players on your own team, but they are limited to comparable situations. Things like a different signing status, or notable differences in age, experience, etc. are even outlined in article 12 of the CBA as something that makes a comparable inadmissable. There is a much bigger difference between a UFA signing and a post-ELC signing than there is between two post-ELC signings on different teams.

If the 2C is being paid $11M it's perfectly reasonable for the 1C to point to that amount and argue that he should be paid either similarly or perhaps more.

Technically, Tavares was used as the "1C" at that time, but let's roll with this. By the logic you're using, if a worse center is being paid 13m in San Jose, it's perfectly reasonable for the center in Toronto to point to that amount and argue that he should be paid either similarly or perhaps more, right? It changes nothing. What exactly stops them from demanding the 13m San Jose pays a worse player than them? You're acting like it's the wild west and there are no rules, but then somehow scoffing at the idea that an agent would do what they do in almost all cases and point to a player on another team as a comparable.

 

[egd27]

Things like a different signing status, or notable differences in age, experience, etc. are even outlined in article 12 of the CBA as something that makes a comparable inadmissable.

Article 12 of the CBA deals with salary arbitration. This thread does not.

, if a worse center is being paid 13m in San Jose, it's perfectly reasonable for the center in Toronto to point to that amount and argue that he should be paid either similarly or perhaps more, right? It changes nothing. What exactly stops them from demanding the 13m San Jose pays a worse player than them?

Why you continue to bring up some fictitious player in San Jose is a mystery. Seems like a desperate attempt to introduce something that has zero relevance to anything related the Toronto Maple Leafs' internal salary structure.

 

[Ports]

The Leafs have many holes but to me their lack of a top four RD and centre depth are at the top of the list. Tavares was never a speedster but his lack of foot speed and over handling the puck make him a liability at times. Sure he’ll chip in with the odd big goal but he doesn’t elevate the players around him because he’s a shoot first centre. Obviously he’s way overpaid at this point in his career but he was a key signing and mistake at a critical point in the Shanaplan and add to that he was made the captain. As such, his lack of bite and inspirational leadership has been a big disappointment and has contributed to the Leafs playoff failures.

 

[Ports]

Regardless of what anyone thinks, he is the only 10mil+ guy who consistently goes to the dirty areas. That matters.

I actually think he is better away from the other 3. But should be on PP1.

As much a condemnation of the other three as anything.

 

[Ports]

Matthews marner and nylander can coast for the rest of the season and JT leading his bottom 6 buddies will still see to it that we have a > 50% points percentage over the remaining games

Simply don't understand hockey if you can't see how important JT is for this team. This thread is embarrassing. It feels like a Leaf-hating main board thread. How do you guys sit here talking so much shit about some of the best players in the league all day long.

Playoff failures might have something to do with that. Regular season stats mean nothing come April and May. An offensively talented group who continually get pushed out of big games and series is frustrating to a lot of Leaf fans. Obviously that’s not important to you.

Do we resign Tavares when his deal is done, I personally would only do it if hes agrees to 4m for 3 years. Anything over that, I will let him walk. Currently he's probably playing around a 7m dollar player.

And no full NMC. He can give them a ten team list or something like that.

 

[Ports]

Do we resign Tavares when his deal is done, I personally would only do it if hes agrees to 4m for 3 years. Anything over that, I will let him walk. Currently he's probably playing around a 7m dollar player.

And no full NMC. He can give them a ten team list or something like that.

 

[Ports]

Amazing value for someone in the last 2 years of a UFA contract.

Everyone knew the last few years would see a regression, but you're not thinking about the last 2 years of a contract when you get to sign a number 1 C in free agency. The team unfortunately squandered those first 5 years and the covid crunch hurt a lot.

But wow.. you'd think he was a donkey like matt duchene or ryan johansen but no, JT is still out there killing it, still a top 30 C in the league, only paid a few mil over on the tail end of a UFA deal. Amazing value

Except he wasn’t a 1C on the Leafs. Matthews was always the 1C so they paid $11M to a 2C when they already had Kadri for $4.5M as a 30 goal scoring physical 2C. Shanahan / Dubas accelerated the Shanaplan and it didn't work and contributed to them having to set precedents on RFA contracts for Matthews and Marner. None of this is JT’s fault. It was management’s mistake.

 

[Ports]

Keeping Kadri and Hyman is the worst case of Monday morning GM I’ve ever heard of.

Nobody was keeping Kadri to watch his 3rd Playoff suspension happen in Toronto and not Colorado… and nobody wanted to give Hyman the bag he was chasing… literally nobody.

Literally nobody ? Don’t count me in on your scientific survey. They should have kept Kadri and the $6.5M in extra cap space and made the team tougher so he wasn’t a man on an island and he wouldn’t have to fight everybody’s battles for them. They low balled Hyman when they could have signed him for less than Edmonton did because they could have offered him an extra year. He got $37.5M and the Leafs could have paid him the same amount with $4.7M x 8 or maybe even less because he was a local kid.

 

[rocketman588]

When he first signed, maybe one million. Now 2-4 if he's making 7-8 we're pretty happy with it.

The bigger issue is that the other 2 used that contract as a marker for themselves to the point where Marner is making now what he would have been worth on the open market last FA period. His contract caused us to get 0 extra value until it was basically time for them to all re-up.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Article 12 of the CBA deals with salary arbitration.

A third party being given power in a contract negotiation doesn't change what a 'comparable' is in the NHL.

Why you continue to bring up some fictitious player in San Jose is a mystery.

Because it highlights a massive flaw in your argument, which is why you refuse to answer the question. You've laid out this fictitious argument for Matthews/Marner, but in this alternate reality where we don't sign Tavares, what would stop our players from demanding the 13m that San Jose pays a worse player than them? It wouldn't meaningfully change the claimed argument. If UFAs are valid comparables for post-ELC contracts (which you've claimed), and players on other teams are valid as comparables (which you've acknowledged), then the logical consequence of Tavares signing for up to 2m more per year than he did would be a negative impact on our own negotiations, not a positive one.

 

[Arzak]

I understand that you're focusing exclusively on this theorized "internal salary structure" concept that one contract supposedly dictated for a bunch of completely unrelated contracts, in order to avoid acknowledging the fundamental problems, inconsistencies, and implications of your claims.

This theorized internal salary structure concept. Like gravitation waves or Higgs bosons ...

It must feel that way, everyone talking about it, but we have yet to see it here in Toronto.

 

[Dekes For Days]

This theorized internal salary structure concept. Like gravitation waves or Higgs bosons ...

No, there's actual proof that the latter two exist.

 

[Maple Leaf]

I'm not sure why every game all of them have ever played as a Maple Leaf is either a small sample size or cherry picking.

If your eyes tell you Tavares will be decent in the playoffs, they tell you something different than what mine tell me. I hope you're right, but I don't expect it.

Hopefully Old man Tavares can chip in some goals in the tight spaces

 

[egd27]

A third party being given power in a contract negotiation doesn't change what a 'comparable' is in the NHL.

If you can't understand why there is a difference between how salary arbitration works and a contract negotiation between a player (agent) and a GM then I see why you are confused. Maybe ask a friend?

You've laid out this fictitious argument for Matthews/Marner, but in this alternate reality where we don't sign Tavares, what would stop our players from demanding the 13m that San Jose pays a worse player than them?

Nothing would stop them demanding whatever they want to demand. But for the 4th or 5th time, your alternate reality example would not be an INTERNAL salary comparison, which is what they partially used in my opinion.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

The steps were easy to follow, but the argument itself was a mess.
Where Tavares signed doesn't seem to matter much in the scenario you created.

You laughed off the idea that there are rules and established ways that contracts are negotiated, and the idea that comparables must be comparable, and essentially argued that they just point to whatever and whoever they want for whatever reason - no matter how ridiculous - and blackmail the team to get it. But now you're attempting to argue that all players that have signed with a different team aren't valid as comparables? Which not only contradicts your original argument, but would essentially destroy the entire concept of comparables as a thing in the first place...

A completely different kind of contract? Who cares! Agents do whatever they want!
That contract signed in a different location? Irrelevant! Can't be used! An agent would never!


No, the reported offers were public information. I don't know where you got the idea that nobody ever said a number to Tavares, and I have no idea what link you're talking about, but even according to the recent CRA appeal, Tavares himself disputes your claim. I think you're mistaking Tavares' desire to decide based on the team and situation over the specific monetary details, and somehow turning it into a belief that nobody involved had any clue what range any teams were willing to offer, despite it being widely reported.

My claim that he said he wanted to hear teams plans for him without talking actual dollars has somehow morphed into JT disputing my claim because he paid too much tax? How in the world did you get that from what I said? Also, these claims of reported offers are nowhere to be seen. We just hear that SJ was in big..but never heard anything about the money until he signed with Dubas.

It's totally cool. You be your best you.