GDT: Home Cookin' - Blues (11-3-1, 1st in West) @ Devils (9-3-1, 2nd in East), 7 PM, MSG+2

[MadDevil]

Severson and Santini are about the last players I'd be worried about on defense. They're both still young and will make mistakes. Although that excuse is starting to become weak for Severson now that he's been in the league over 200 games. Still, I think some people overstate his gaffes and seem to ignore the good things he does for the team. Stop pining away for a 50 point defenseman who is also going to be a rock defensively. Those guys are rare.

 

[devilsblood]

As of a few days ago, I remember coming across something where Santini had some of the lowest danger shots against on the team. So while he allows a lot of chances, they were coming from the most low-dangers areas, which would definitely explain why he passes the eye test right now, but is not when it comes to the underlying stats.

To that point, he let's up more chances per 60 on anyone on the team outside of Boyle. Yet his goals allowed per 60, are 8th best on the team.

But his real advanced stat issue is lack of chances for. As a comparison, Santini allows 69.27 ca/60 compared to Butcher's, 68.93. So basically identical, but Santini's CF/ 60 is 45.54 compared to Butcher's, 59.08.

The context of it, in that Santini gets much tougher minutes, is interesting. It says he actually suppresses chances very well despite allowing more chances per 60 then anyone on the team who is playing regular minutes, but all those d-zone starts has a bigger effect on the chances for.

 

[devilsblood]

Severson and Santini are about the last players I'd be worried about on defense. They're both still young and will make mistakes. Although that excuse is starting to become weak for Severson now that he's been in the league over 200 games. Still, I think some people overstate his gaffes and seem to ignore the good things he does for the team. Stop pining away for a 50 point defenseman who is also going to be a rock defensively. Those guys are rare.

Jim has pushed the 200 game development criteria, but I think it's rather arbitrary. Sevs is still young, he has room to improve.

 

[BahlDeep]

I’ll never understand why you think Severson is so bad.

One of the reasons I started caring at all about advanced stats was after having to hear about how bad defensemen like him are at defense. I don’t even think Severson fails the eye test this year, outside of a few poor plays and losing his man once or twice and it leading to goals.

And that’s not bitterness, he’s using stats to back it up. You don’t have to agree with them, but by calling him bitter about it, it’s like you’re accusing him of making things up.

Because he hasn't been good by his standards or by the standard of a #2 defenseman. Severson hasn't produced. I can't remember a game where I saw Severson carry the play. He has so many brainfarts, and doesn't make up for them. He totally fails the eye test this year.

And yes, Jets starting to downplay Santini play as soon as people started crticizing Severson. And if you think he's right, he's totally wrong. He took advanced stats without any context and downplayed Santini. He compared him to players who played betwern 300-800 games more than Santini did.

 

[MadDevil]

Jim has pushed the 200 game development criteria, but I think it's rather arbitrary. Sevs is still young, he has room to improve.

Definitely. And it doesn't help that there's not a lot of help for him either. He can't play with Santini, who would probably compliment him pretty well. Greene is 35 and is starting to look it. Moore is clueless in his own end. Butcher is a rookie and more offensive minded anyway. Mueller has been pretty decent but I'm not sure you'd want to put him with Severson.

To me Severson needs a legit #1, or at least another #2 that compliments him well. If you're relying on him to carry your top pairing, it's probably not going to go well.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Proof that some posters don’t actually watch games and instead just look at spreadsheets.

Amen.

Anyone can see that the game just hasn't slowed down for Zacha yet - because when he brimmed with confidence in the pre-season he looked like a different player. Even Nico has been surprised a bit by the speed at times, and he looked about as at-ease as any kid I've ever seen in the pre-season and now he's had a few more turnovers and a little less space with which to operate.

The job that Santini has done this season, with the exception of a few games has been tremendous. He has been our best defenseman at times and is approaching Greene levels of reliability.

To be honest, even despite the rookie-ish bobbles by Moore, Mueller, Butcher and Severson sometimes - our entire D squad is found money as far as I'm concerned. They may not exactly be playing consistently great D at this point, but I think they've all proven that they have the tools to play great on both sides of the puck.

And that goes for Santini as well - I think he's been good at getting his shot to the net and his passing is underrated. It certainly ain't Butcher nor even Severson good, but its Larsson good.

 

[NJDevs26]

And let's not forget Santini's still basically a rookie. His next game played will be his 52nd in the NHL. For him to be doing as well as he has at the most important job of being a defenseman is a good thing. He'll never provide the offense to make his peripheral numbers look great but he can still be an asset. Even in the 'new NHL'.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Even with context, Santini’s stats stink compared to Severson. This is a dumb converstaion. -9.7 CF% rel for Santini. Severson is 5.2 CF% rel. If you think zone starts are the reason why there’s that big of a gap, you’re clueless.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Even with context, Santini’s stats stink compared to Severson. This is a dumb converstaion. -9.7 CF% rel for Santini. Severson is 5.2 CF% rel. If you think zone starts are the reason why there’s that big of a gap, you’re clueless.

bwahahahahaha.

 

[BahlDeep]

Even with context, Santini’s stats stink compared to Severson. This is a dumb converstaion. -9.7 CF% rel for Santini. Severson is 5.2 CF% rel. If you think zone starts are the reason why there’s that big of a gap, you’re clueless.

What context are you using lol?

It doesn't explain the whole difference, but you simply can't ignore that Santini %Dzone start seriously hinder his CF% rel especially when you consider he goes against the best players. He keeps most of the shots on the outside, he is sound defensively, and doesn't make lots of mistakes.

 

[BahlDeep]

And let's not forget Santini's still basically a rookie. His next game played will be his 52nd in the NHL. For him to be doing as well as he has at the most important job of being a defenseman is a good thing. He'll never provide the offense to make his peripheral numbers look great but he can still be an asset. Even in the 'new NHL'.

He isn't a grenade handler either. He can make a good outlet pass. His shot isn't all that bad. He's a smart player.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I swear on off days it is like we just forget what happens in the actual games and just look at advanced stats like they tell the whole story.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

What context are you using lol?

It doesn't explain the whole difference, but you simply can't ignore that Santini %Dzone start seriously hinder his CF% rel especially when you consider he goes against the best players. He keeps most of the shots on the outside, he is sound defensively, and doesn't make lots of mistakes.

Zone starts don’t have that large of an impact on CF%. I’m not ignoring it, that’s why I said even with that context his stats aren’t good. If you think that’s why he’s nearly 10 points underwater and Severson is 5+ points above, you’re nuts. That’s just pure bs.

Santini has had some good games, some horrific games. At the moment, he isn’t even close to as good as Severson.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Reddit losing its mind saying last night proved we are the same as last year’s team was hilarious

 

[BahlDeep]

Zone starts don’t have that large of an impact on CF%. I’m not ignoring it, that’s why I said even with that context his stats aren’t good. If you think that’s why he’s nearly 10 points underwater and Severson is 5+ points above, you’re nuts. That’s just pure bs.

Santini has had some good games, some horrific games. At the moment, he isn’t even close to as good as Severson.

Why? Because he blows Severson out of the water defensively?

Severson is seriously the most overrated player we have. This is pure insanity. He's terrible defensively. He doesn't bring much offense to compensate for his defensive lapses. He lacks IQ. His shot isn't very good.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I swear on off days it is like we just forget what happens in the actual games and just look at advanced stats like they tell the whole story.

My eyes have told me Santini has been trapped in his own zone in quite a few games this season. He’s had multiple Lovejoy level games this year. He’s also pretty much a rookie so who cares. People crowning him our best dman are the ones detatched from reality.

 

[BahlDeep]

My eyes have told me Santini has been trapped in his own zone in quite a few games this season. He’s had multiple Lovejoy level games this year. He’s also pretty much a rookie so who cares. People crowning him our best dman are the ones detatched from reality.

No one crowned his as our best defenseman. That would be Mueller. And outside of the game we played in Ottawa, I don't remember Santini having Lovejoy level games, if at all. You're just being delusional. Dude has 1 point less than Severson, and goes against the other teams best line.

 

[Jets012]

My eyes have told me Santini has been trapped in his own zone in quite a few games this season. He’s had multiple Lovejoy level games this year. He’s also pretty much a rookie so who cares. People crowning him our best dman are the ones detatched from reality.

Thank you. Santini gets trapped in his own zone and the excuse is just = "Hynes wants him to do that"

It's dumb. Doesn't even make sense.

 

[Jets012]

No one crowned his as our best defenseman. That would be Mueller. And outside of the game we played in Ottawa, I don't remember Santini having Lovejoy level games, if at all. You're just being delusional. Dude has 1 point less than Severson, and goes against the other teams best line.

Mueller our best defenseman this year!? What the hell?

 

[glenwo2]

the bad: out of first place

The good: still have 2 games on columbus and 3 on pitt

The bad : Out of First place

The Good : I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance by switching to GEICO.

 

[Cheddabombs]

Am I crazy for thinking no defensemen has been good so far? Sure our record is fine but we still get heavily out-more more often then not. Team defense has a whole has been bad, which is why we get trapped in our own zone so often for so long. But the defensemen haven't helped their cause with careless pinches, bad clearing attempts, bad passes, etc...

Santini gets somewhat of a pass. He's playing tough minutes really early in his career. But I expect more from Severson to be honest. He hasn't been as bad as some are portraying him but if this team is going to have any hope in the future we need him to take more steps forward.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

No one crowned his as our best defenseman. That would be Mueller. And outside of the game we played in Ottawa, I don't remember Santini having Lovejoy level games, if at all. You're just being delusional. Dude has 1 point less than Severson, and goes against the other teams best line.

Mirco Mueller...our best defenseman...

 

[NJDevs26]

Okay I'll bite, what the **** is CF+ rel and why should I care? Besides being another version of Corsi also biased toward shot totals.

 

[BahlDeep]

Mueller our best defenseman this year!? What the hell?

Who is it? Severson?

 

[BahlDeep]

Okay I'll bite, what the **** is CF+ and why should I care?

Basically, if you're on the ice when more shots are directed towards the opponents net than yours, you have a positive CF

And CF relative is Corsi for when you're on the ice - Corsi for when you're not on the ice