GDT: Home Cookin' - Blues (11-3-1, 1st in West) @ Devils (9-3-1, 2nd in East), 7 PM, MSG+2

[NJDevs26]

Basically, if you're on the ice when more shots are directed towards the opponents net than yours, you have a positive CF

So basically another repackaging of Corsi/Fenwick. As I figured.

 

[glenwo2]

Basically, if you're on the ice when more shots are directed towards the opponents net than yours, you have a positive CF

Oh okay. For a second, I thought you were referring to one of our players as a CENTER FIELDER.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Ok - you guys win. Lotsa crazy talk on both sides. I'm out.

We aren't a good defensive team, but we have some very good young defensemen that have great futures.

Pretty much it is:
Step 1. Severson cuts down on the occasional bonehead Moore-ish play.
Step 2. Santini improves his all important CF+ to get it to acceptable levels
Step 3. ????
Step 4. Profit.

 

[BahlDeep]

So basically another repackaging of Corsi/Fenwick. As I figured.

Basically if Santini lets 2 shots from the outside when he's on the ice, and only puts one shot on net (or players on ice with him in both cases), he has a negative Corsi.

But if Severson goes ahead and leave a chance in the slot or blows coverage and allows a breakaway or an oddman rush and this generates a shot towards the net, and than goes ahead and throw 2 floaters from the blue line that are headed towards the net. He's a positive Corsi.

 

[Edmonton East]

Pavel Zacha scored/is scoring at a ~30 point pace as a 19/20 year old between this year and last, with most of that time being on a horrific offensive team and playing with not very good players like Josefson, Hayes, etc.

PATIENCE. Not every player develops at the same speed. Zacha has already tremendously improved his defensive game from what I have seen.

Man, enough. You say this every time and it isn't an accurate depiction at all. Further, it's very misleading to posters who won't actually do the research themselves. This is probably the 10th time I have to point this out: in the past 2 seasons, Zacha has played 84 Games and amassed a whopping 4 goals and 10 assists at even strength. He has been given stretches in the top 6 several times and played himself out of it each time. To act as if his ES points/60 being abysmal isn't concerning is ridiculous.

Yea, he's young and has time to figure it out. But at this point it is valid for people to be concerned. Additionally, you labeling him a 30 point player when a ridiculous proportion of those points were derived on the PP (ie not sustainable and/or likely a product of the man advantage rather than improvement) is misleading.

Would you call Jacob Josefson a 20 point player after he posted 14 points in 2015 in 58GP...with 11 as a product of the PP? No, a logical person wouldn't.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Basically if Santini lets 2 shots from the outside when he's on the ice, and only puts one shot on net (or players on ice with him in both cases), he has a negative Corsi.

But if Severson goes ahead and leave a chance in the slot or blows coverage and allows a breakaway or an oddman rush and this generates a shot towards the net, and than goes ahead and throw 2 floaters from the blue line that are headed towards the net. He's a positive Corsi.

Hmm. What stat do you click when you are on the ice at even strength or on the power play, and the puck goes in the net? It seems like they should have an analytic for that as it would seem to be more important....

Oh, nevermind - that's +/- and everyone knows that's a flawed stat that doesn't tell ANYTHING....

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Basically if Santini lets 2 shots from the outside when he's on the ice, and only puts one shot on net (or players on ice with him in both cases), he has a negative Corsi.

But if Severson goes ahead and leave a chance in the slot or blows coverage and allows a breakaway or an oddman rush and this generates a shot towards the net, and than goes ahead and throw 2 floaters from the blue line that are headed towards the net. He's a positive Corsi.

Nice hypothetical. Now realize that Santini is TEN points underwater and Severson is 5 points above. This isn’t a small difference and they aren’t all weak wristers from the point.

 

[BahlDeep]

Nice hypothetical. Now realize that Santini is TEN points underwater and Severson is 5 points above. This isn’t a small difference and they aren’t all weak wristers from the point.

Realise that Santini Starts in the Dzone 85% of the time against the other teams best player. And Severson has a weak shot. I think Lovejoy might have a better slapper than him

 

[BahlDeep]

Hmm. What stat do you click when you are on the ice at even strength or on the power play, and the puck goes in the net? It seems like they should have an analytic for that as it would seem to be more important....

Oh, nevermind - that's +/- and everyone knows that's a flawed stat that doesn't tell ANYTHING....

Yea, Severson -51 in his career doesn't mean crap. He has solid Corsi.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Yea, he's young and has time to figure it out. But at this point it is valid for people to be concerned. Additionally, you labeling him a 30 point player when a ridiculous proportion of those points were derived on the PP (ie not sustainable and/or likely a product of the man advantage rather than improvement) is misleading.

I was kinda with your point until it went off the rails.

Last I checked, to be considered a 30pt player, you should be on pace to score 30 points. No one qualifies it with ES/60. If he scores 50 goals and 49 of them on the power play, I'm really not going to care. He's still a 50-goal scorer.

 

[NJDevs26]

Realise that Santini Starts in the Dzone 85% of the time against the other teams best player. And Severson has a weak shot. I think Lovejoy might have a better slapper than him

Severson also frequently plays with offensive D like Moore and Butcher while Santini's mostly played with Greene lately, who also isn't exactly driving play. That also helps/hurts the shot-based stats. And when you're playing in a defensive role you aren't going to be playing with Hall/Palmieri/etc a lot either.

Honestly I'd rather give Santini a try with a Moore or Butcher to balance it out with more conventional pairings and see what happens. But Severson isn't trusted enough to play with Greene, while Lovejoy shouldn't play with him under any circumstances at even strength.

 

[BahlDeep]

Severson also frequently plays with offensive D like Moore and Butcher while Santini's mostly played with Greene lately, who also isn't exactly driving play. That also helps/hurts the shot-based stats.

There's multiple context applicable in this situation to explain the difference of Corsi. Some people are just being intellectually lazy and take any stat at face value and run away with it.

 

[Edmonton East]

I was kinda with your point until it went off the rails.

Last I checked, to be considered a 30pt player, you should be on pace to score 30 points. No one qualifies it with ES/60. If he scores 50 goals and 49 of them on the power play, I'm really not going to care. He's still a 50-goal scorer.

It isn't sustainable. Not trying to be a jerk, but it shouldn't be that difficult to understand. Why do you think forward "powerplay specialists" often get moved around at low value and don't land big contracts despite being on "40 point pace" or whateever.

If you play PP, you are bound to get points just by being there.

 

[R8Devs]

Yea, Severson -51 in his career doesn't mean crap. He has solid Corsi.

so since he's +1 this year that must mean he's improved a lot defensively from last year!

 

[MadDevil]

This argument is idiotic. They're two different types of defensemen being used differently.

 

[BahlDeep]

so since he's +1 this year that must mean he's improved a lot defensively from last year!

I don't expect anything other than a norris nomination for him

 

[BahlDeep]

This argument is idiotic. They're two different types of defensemen being used differently.

One is doing better than the other at what he's supposed to do.

 

[My3Sons]

PZ will either figure it out over the next couple of years or become a cautionary tale for Shero and Castron as a reminder of the old way of thinking. Hopefully a steady gig on the wing with a stable and capable center will unlock his offensive potential.

 

[EliasFTW]

Oh super interesting stats battle. I'm a just...

 

[Jets012]

Severson also frequently plays with offensive D like Moore and Butcher while Santini's mostly played with Greene lately, who also isn't exactly driving play. That also helps/hurts the shot-based stats. And when you're playing in a defensive role you aren't going to be playing with Hall/Palmieri/etc a lot either.

Honestly I'd rather give Santini a try with a Moore or Butcher to balance it out with more conventional pairings and see what happens. But Severson isn't trusted enough to play with Greene, while Lovejoy shouldn't play with him under any circumstances at even strength.

When Severson plays with Greene the last two years, the two actually do quite well in terms of out-generating their opposition's chances. It's when Greene plays with Lovejoy/Santini that they don't.

 

[JK3]

When I see CF% followed by a diatribe i just scroll past it.

 

[Darkauron]

Lets just talk about our lord and savior Taylor Hall.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

There's multiple context applicable in this situation to explain the difference of Corsi. Some people are just being intellectually lazy and take any stat at face value and run away with it.

Yes, Severson playing with JOHN MOORE helps his corsi. Lmao. You clearly have no idea what you’re saying.

 

[glenwo2]

Oh super interesting stats battle. I'm a just...

BRAAAAAAUUUUUN!!!!

But yeah.....I'm not a fan of statistics.

I'm a fan of Hockey.

 

[devilsblood]

Lets just talk about our lord and savior Taylor Hall.

Traditionally a very good Corsi player.