Confirmed with Link: Holy Crap, They Actually Make a Move! (Guentzel and Ty Smith to Carolina for Bunting + Ponomaryov + Koivunen + Lucius + Conditional 2024 2nd)

[bleedgreen]

He fits in with Aho every well, which is hardly a shock. You could see the first line we have being a thing for a few years.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

Priority #1 to me is still to re-sign Jarvis. I'm 100% committed to go 8 years, whatever it takes. I think the Svech contract may help in bringing down Jarvis's number a bit.

Guentzel is still a bit of a luxury so far, but he's probably the 2nd most important player to try to keep. The cost of keeping Guentzel might be Necas, and for sure it would preclude us from getting Skjei.

Really it all comes down to if Guentzel wants to be here. I'm sure Waddell will be frank with him and shop him around if Guentz wants to look into free agency. No one should blame him. This year is his one and only shot at big money. It's possible he's offered something stupid like 7 years $9M from someone else, and it's possible we may be offering something like 6 years $6.5M here. I'm completely spitballing here. I just want to say that Guentzel isn't a mercenary if he leaves.

 

[spockBokk]

Priority #1 to me is still to re-sign Jarvis. I'm 100% committed to go 8 years, whatever it takes. I think the Svech contract may help in bringing down Jarvis's number a bit.

Guentzel is still a bit of a luxury so far, but he's probably the 2nd most important player to try to keep. The cost of keeping Guentzel might be Necas, and for sure it would preclude us from getting Skjei.

Really it all comes down to if Guentzel wants to be here. I'm sure Waddell will be frank with him and shop him around if Guentz wants to look into free agency. No one should blame him. This year is his one and only shot at big money. It's possible he's offered something stupid like 7 years $9M from someone else, and it's possible we may be offering something like 6 years $6.5M here. I'm completely spitballing here. I just want to say that Guentzel isn't a mercenary if he leaves.

I don’t think they’d have a shot at Guentzel unless they were offering $8M x 8.

Maybe…if he realllly ends up liking it in Raleigh, they could get him for $7.5-7.75M x 8, the Svechnikov if you will. However, that would go against everything they’ve done so far in giving a 30yr old a big aav at max term.

They “could” fit him in at an aav of $8M, the question will be, with all the other RFAs and UFAs on expiring deals, “should” they?

 

[Stickpucker]

Unless he takes a significant discount, we can't afford him.

Move out coconut who is making more than Kuzy.

Problem solved.

 

[bleedgreen]

But will we re sign Kuzy?!?

 

[spockBokk]

Not re-signing Guentzel wouldn’t be the end of the world. Assuming they do keep both Necas and Jarvis:

XXX-Aho-Jarvis
Svechnikov-Kuznetsov-Necas
XXX-Kotkaniemi-Teravainen
Martinook-Staal-Fast

I’d think they’d use the $4.5M they cleared from trading Bunting to give Teravainen and Martinook small raises. In this scenario, they might even be able to make a run at re-upping Pesce or Skjei.

That’s still a mighty deep forward group.

All that said, I think they make their best effort to retain Guentzel, being as he was the “guy” they finally got after always being the runner up in high profile trades. Whether or not their best effort gets it done will be interesting, seems like Guentzel wants to test the market based on what’s come out of Pittsburgh.

 

[Svechhammer]

But will we re sign Kuzy?!?

I highly doubt Kuzy even wants top dollar with his next contract. Given where he's coming from, I would suspect he'll be willing to take a discount just to stay somewhere that is good for him personally.

And if he stays here, it could help us keep Orlov as well. Who knows

 

[Svechhammer]

Not re-signing Guentzel wouldn’t be the end of the world. Assuming they do keep both Necas and Jarvis:

XXX-Aho-Jarvis
Svechnikov-Kuznetsov-Necas
XXX-Kotkaniemi-Teravainen
Martinook-Staal-Fast

I’d think they’d use the $4.5M they cleared from trading Bunting to give Teravainen and Martinook small raises. In this scenario, they might even be able to make a run at re-upping Pesce or Skjei.

That’s still a mighty deep forward group.

We will be glad to jettison both Martinook and Turbo if it means keeping Guentzel. He's everything our top line needs, and if it costs $8x8 to keep him, we'll do it. We'll eat those last couple years if it means having multiple legitimate runs for the Cup now.

The big decision is KK vs Drury and we'll probably look to trade KK. We'd love to keep Necas to pair with Kuzy, and Necas might realize it probably is worth it for him to pair with an elite offensive talent for a year or 2 to balloon his offensive numbers before he hits UFA, so if I was his agent I might encourage him to work something out here for a 1 or 2 year extension to do just that.

 

[Unsustainable]

Jarvis question you 3x3 bridge him or lock him up 8 years.

8 years at a bargain price is where I would like, but a 3 year bridge at 3m for Jarvis and then 8 year Necas at Svech money. Then you have the money for Guentzel.

In 3 years when Jarvis is due, Orlov and Burns contracts are gone and DW had bamboozled other gms for their replacements and Nikishin and Morrow are on their 1st cheap contracts.

 

[chaz4hockey]

Not re-signing Guentzel wouldn’t be the end of the world. Assuming they do keep both Necas and Jarvis:

XXX-Aho-Jarvis
Svechnikov-Kuznetsov-Necas
XXX-Kotkaniemi-Teravainen
Martinook-Staal-Fast

I’d think they’d use the $4.5M they cleared from trading Bunting to give Teravainen and Martinook small raises. In this scenario, they might even be able to make a run at re-upping Pesce or Skjei.

That’s still a mighty deep forward group.

All that said, I think they make their best effort to retain Guentzel, being as he was the “guy” they finally got after always being the runner up in high profile trades. Whether or not their best effort gets it done will be interesting, seems like Guentzel wants to test the market based on what’s come out of Pittsburgh.

Early returns are outstanding showing how Guentzal works with Aho. Keeping him provides for an excellent 2-line team for years. He has already made $32M so it's possible he may sacrifice some $ to stay with a team positioned to stay very competitive for years.

If we had to, I'd sacrifice both KK & TT and keep lower cost Suzuki and Drury as fill ins. We will move from a strong 4 line team to an outstanding 2-line team with drop off on the other two....I can live with that.

Also, at some point the young guys we have drafted in last few years should be NHL ready to use as lower cost players and DW could always trade deadline in players to fill needs.

 

[spockBokk]

We will be glad to jettison both Martinook and Turbo if it means keeping Guentzel. He's everything our top line needs, and if it costs $8x8 to keep him, we'll do it. We'll eat those last couple years if it means having multiple legitimate runs for the Cup now.

The big decision is KK vs Drury and we'll probably look to trade KK. We'd love to keep Necas to pair with Kuzy, and Necas might realize it probably is worth it for him to pair with an elite offensive talent for a year or 2 to balloon his offensive numbers before he hits UFA, so if I was his agent I might encourage him to work something out here for a 1 or 2 year extension to do just that.

Not that easy.

Guentzel could easily get much more than $8M on the open market. He may be giving up that 8th year, but if he keeps up his current level of play, $9M+ x 7 isn’t out of the question of the open market.

Even giving Guentzel $8M and max term makes negotiating with Necas and Jarvis that much harder. One of them would have to settle for not getting full value. Are they ok with that?

Also, the blueline. They have a ton of work to do if they want to keep it at the level it has been. Guentzel commanding $8M long term very much complicates that.

Don’t get me wrong, I hope they keep Guentzel. It’s possible to do at $8M. However, it certainly complicates everything else.

 

[spockBokk]

Jarvis question you 3x3 bridge him or lock him up 8 years.

8 years at a bargain price is where I would like, but a 3 year bridge at 3m for Jarvis and then 8 year Necas at Svech money. Then you have the money for Guentzel.

In 3 years when Jarvis is due, Orlov and Burns contracts are gone and DW had bamboozled other gms for their replacements and Nikishin and Morrow are on their 1st cheap contracts.

If the turtleneck could get Jarvis signed for $3M x 3, he needs his own statue outside PNC.

I think a bridge with Jarvis starts at no less than $5M, a la Jesper Bratt.

 

[Unsustainable]

If the turtleneck could get Jarvis signed for $3M x 3, he needs his own statue outside PNC.

I think a bridge with Jarvis starts at no less than $5M, a la Jesper Bratt.

Jarvis isnt arbitration eligible

 

[spockBokk]

Jarvis isnt arbitration eligible

Even still, why would he sign for that little? 31 other teams would be lining up to offer sheet him if thats what the Canes’ offer is.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Jarvis question you 3x3 bridge him or lock him up 8 years.

8 years at a bargain price is where I would like, but a 3 year bridge at 3m for Jarvis and then 8 year Necas at Svech money. Then you have the money for Guentzel.

In 3 years when Jarvis is due, Orlov and Burns contracts are gone and DW had bamboozled other gms for their replacements and Nikishin and Morrow are on their 1st cheap contracts.

3 year bridges arent the best business decisions. 2 year bridges are better. a 3 year bridge would allow the player to refuse to sign and go to arbitration once and they are UFA afterwards. A 2 year bridge at least gives you another year of control to get a player signed long term or able to trade with control for more value.

2 x 4 for Jarvis
or
8 x 7.25 mil

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Why are we getting rid of Martinook? He’s gonna cost nothing.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

I think we bridge Jarvis for cheap and sign Necas to 8 years honestly.

 

[The Faulker 27]

Why are we getting rid of Martinook? He’s gonna cost nothing.

And Rod won't have someone to put on the first line to send a message.

 

[Unsustainable]

Even still, why would he sign for that little? 31 other teams would be lining up to offer sheet him if thats what the Canes’ offer is.

Offersheet requires him to sign, also if its an easy match offer we simply match, if its 4 1st comp, then you question it.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I'm still not opposed to moving Necas in the offseason. I'm not saying move him at all costs, but I can think of a number of scenarios where it might make sense to move on from him for a different valuable piece.

 

[LakeLivin]

So much is gonna depend on how the rest of the season plays out and how the players in question perform from here on out. So many moving pieces . . .

edit: I think it may come down to which of the players in question have a Stamkos perspective vs. how many have a Marner one; the Borg isn't Kyle Dubas.

 

[SlavinAway]

And Rod won't have someone to put on the first line to send a message.

Oh he'd still find someone ha

 

[NotOpie]

We can absolutely find a way, and it would be worth it

Well, we could find a way, but we don't want to end up like Toronto, filling out the bottom 6 with scrubs, has beens, and untested rookies....one or two players of that ilk are fine 4 or 5 aren't.

The cost of keeping Guentzel might be Necas, and for sure it would preclude us from getting Skjei.

Guentzel at 25 had stats eerily close to current Necas's stats. Not as many ....and Marty is 4.5 years younger. Necas's speed is nearly irreplaceable. Sure I'm a Carolina Hurricanes homer, but letting Necas go to sign a 30 year old Guentzel seems like a rash decision. There's probably a way to make it work, but our defense suffers pretty significantly...and we'd have little room for error/injuries. Donny has a lot of work to do.

I’d think they’d use the $4.5M they cleared from trading Bunting to give Teravainen and Martinook small raises. In this scenario, they might even be able to make a run at re-upping Pesce or Skjei.

Well, if you take Guentzel out of the picture, bridge Seth for $3.5 million per for 2 years, bridge Drury for something like $1.75 million per for 2 years, give Necas an 8 x $7 million deal, re-sign Chatty for $3 million, sign Morrow to an entry level deal ($900k?), and re-sign Martinook for the same money, then you've got 11 forwards, 5 defensemen, and 3 goalies under contract. That leaves about $12.75 million (give or take) to sign 2 or 3 forwards and 1 or 2 defensemen (depending on if you want an extra forward and an extra defender on the roster). One of those forwards would have to be a Top 6 guy. That means both Skjei and Pesce are walking....and it still leaves our Drury/Kotkaniemi problem in tact.

Don’t get me wrong, I hope they keep Guentzel.

I would love to keep Guentzel too...I'd also like to keep Tuevo as I think his game is good enough that even from the 3rd line he'd be a defensively responsible 40-50 point guy. But, he'd have to take a significant haircut for that to work. And as much as I want to see the whole group stay together, I can't get the math to work to keep either (unless we get rid of some guy or two).

I think a bridge with Jarvis starts at no less than $5M, a la Jesper Bratt.

We bridged Marty at $3 million for 2 years the year after he put up 70 points. I see no reason that Jarvis wouldn't take a slightly larger deal.....or we sign him long term and do some bargin bin shopping.

There's a way to make it work with Guentzel at $8.5 million but that also means not Tuevo, Skjei, or Pesce. We would ice a 23 man roster assuming we keep Martin on the active roster.

 

[bleedgreen]

I would keep Necas over Guentzel as well based on the contracts and age. I don’t feel different about Guentzel than I do about any of the others we let go because we balked at the contract. They were all good fits but they were all a bit old to give long term deals to. My only urge to sign Jake comes from the cost of acquisition.

 

[Svechhammer]

I'm sorry but we've been talking for years at how we don't have enough offensive pop with the players we had and how we really needed to be aggressive in FA or trades to get one.

And now that we did just that and got aggressive with a trade, now we're arguing to let that player walk in FA because he wants to be paid like an elite offensive player?

Yeah if we do that we deserve to have our entire contention window go up in a puff of smoke. We know our weaknesses, they have been brutally obvious the last couple playoff runs, and if we revert back to that just because we think it might be hard to walk away from the players we had, then we absolutely deserve to waste this window away