And the LA Kings, with a new coach, are suddenly cashing in on the possession numbers they've been putting up forever... Strange how that works. Almost like shot volume isn't the end-all-be-all of hockey, and you need to find a system that generates quality scoring chances, and not just shots on goal from anywhere.
The Hawks have been awful the last 10 games, and Corsi says they are killing it... lol
I never said corsi is the be all end all of what a good team is. Advanced stats are only part of the answer, but I'd sure as hell rather be at the top of that list then near the bottom..
Two things here.
1) Corsi (possession) isn't the be all and end all, but it is very important and very predictive. It's not a 1:1 correlation for success, but it's the most repeatable, sustainable and consistent predictor of all the many variables that impact hockey. Though it is getting less predictive as more and more teams adopt philosophies and systems that emphasize possession, as the range in possession within the league is 'crushing' at both ends towards the 50% mark.
Moreover, the idea that the Blackhawks aren't generating chances is simply inaccurate. In the same time frame (last 10 games) they're 7th in the league in scoring chance share and 6th in the league as far as raw scoring chances generated. As far as strictly high-danger scoring chances (the slot), they drop a bit to 9th in share, and 8th in raw high-danger scoring chances generated (numbers from naturalstattrick.com).
xGF, which wraps attempts, shots, and chances together, weighted by aggregate shooting percentage per distance and angle the shot was taken (among other factors), puts the Blackhawks at 5th best in the league over that time (numbers from corsica.hockey).
In that time, they're 21st in the league in sh%.
The idea that the Blackhawks haven't been getting quality opportunities simply isn't true. They have been, they just haven't been burying them. By both quantity and quality, they've been playing well in the ozone, at least.
And then there's the bigger problem. The Blackhawks are winning the battle as far as possession and chance share, but they are still giving up a ton. They're a high-event team (tons of shots going both ways), and high event teams are rarely successful. History shows you can't win consistently simply by trying to out-generate what a ****ty defense allows on net. You need to suppress. And the Blackhawks can't. In the same 10 game time frame they are 24th in the league for shots allowed.
So yes, they're coming out on top in terms of shares and generating a ton, but they're doing it the wrong way, or at least, the less historically efficient and successful way. As far as success, you'd FAR prefer a team that generates less but allows even less against than a team that allows a ton again and generates even more themselves. Ideally, you'd be the 2013 Blackhawks, and generate a **** ton while giving your opponents almost nothing, but hey, not every team gets to be the best team of the last 10 years.
This is all 5v5 of course. We all know their PP is a tire-fire and is costing them games in a year where a higher number of PPs than average are being called per game.
This isn't going to assuage any frustrations, obviously. Nobody likes to hear 'hey, the sport you love is disproportionately impacted by random chance, and sometimes that chance bites you in the ass instead of helping over the hump'. (like it did last year for the Blackhawks). And obviously it doesn't magically erase the reality that they have 82 games to make the playoffs, they need more scoring and they're running out of runway. But it is what it is. That's hockey.
2) As far as the Kings are concerned, yes the new coaching staff updated the system that Sutter had in place. We know what the changes are, because they told the world the moment the coaching change was made. They've given their D the green-light to skate the puck out and join the rush more aggressively, and they've tried to create passes off the walls into the slot more often.
It would be ****ing great if the Blackhawks did the former, and they already to the latter a ton.
The Kings are scoring more because their top line is shooting the lights out. Nobody else on the team is really producing above the rates they were under Sutter. The vaunted coaching change has done basically nothing for lines 2-4, or any of their Dmen. All of them have roughly the same sh% as their career average and are roughly on pace for their normal production. Almost as if it's not a system impact at all, but rather some well-timed luck.
The boon has come particularly from Kopitar, who started the season shooting 25%, is currently at 20%, almost double his career average of 12.5%. If you believe that's entirely systems driven, that's fine, but I find it hard to believe that Kopitar has secretly actually been twice the finisher that Alexander Ovechkin is (career sh% of 12) or better than Steven Stamkos (career sh% 17) all this time, and Sutter (and Murray before him) just kept him quiet.... or that the benefits of the new system are exclusive to him while the rest of the team are unimpacted.
More likely, he's just insanely hot.
Likewise, Dustin Brown started at 20%, he's cooled down to 15%, that's still 6% better than his career average, he'll probably continue cooling as the season progresses... unless you think a more active D and more passes to the slot are the key to making Dustin Brown a better finisher than Patrick Kane has been at any point in his career (EDIT: Kane actually hit 16% sh% in the 2013 48-game season. My bad. So he was a better finisher once than Dustin Brown is currently.).
Can they keep it up? We shall see. But I wouldn't bet on teams riding a single line with a hot sh% and great goaltending. We all learned that first hand in 2016.