Free Agent/Trades 2015: Offer Sheets, Buyouts, Terminations & Free Agency

[piikerr]

Nooooot going to happen. Reinhart will be almost 20 (19.9) going into this season. Bergeron was starting his second full season in the NHL, and put up 0.9ppg, starting his season as a 20 (20.2) year-old.

Reinhart's analogue is Brayden Schenn or Jarret Stoll, not Patrice Bergeron.

All oppinions and speculation at this point. We'll see what he is 2 years from now.

 

[PuckMagi]

No way we would get Babcock either right?

Lets say Stammer really did wanna come home. Not gonna go out and say he does, but maybe for some reason he wants to be in the spotlight in his hometown.
Trade deadline rolls around, he stiff arms Stevie Y and says he wants a Toronto trade or hes out..........

All being equal, no moves are made from now until then, what do we give up for Stammer?

I would do something like JVR + Polak at the max.

If we wait a few months, we could probably get him for free... but if that option is on the table and he's willing to re-sign long term with us... I'd just pull the trigger on that and lock him up rather than risk the circumstances changing.

 

[TheProspector]

All oppinions and speculation at this point. We'll see what he is 2 years from now.

No, the comparison is fact. For Reinhart to become Bergeron-level, he'd have to take an unprecedented advancement in development.

At the same age, Bergeron was producing at 192% of average for that league for that year in the NHL (hence alpha of 1.92). Reinhart has an alpha of 2.08 in the WHL -- as a man playing against boys.

If Reinhart was going to be Bergeron-level, and wasn't already playing in the NHL putting up 0.9ppg, he'd probably have needed to be putting up 1.3ppg in the AHL last year to stand a chance of keeping up with the development necessary to get there.

To bet on Reinhart becoming a 0.7-0.9ppg defensive superstar in the NHL, you're calling for some of the most improbably accelerating in player development that's ever occurred. Not saying it's impossible... buuuuut it's not looking likely.

 

[VanW27]

You skipped Bergeron's second pro season in the AHL, he was 20 in his second NHL season and 3rd pro season.

Also the NHL was in a huge state of flux at that time coming out of the lock out and Bergeron had his best offensive season.

That year isn't an accurate representation of Bergeron's offensive ability in today's NHL.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I will expand what my thinking was a bit (for all), but you have hit most of it pretty accurately. I probably believe Dion's value is a little less than you IIRC, to start with. Lindholm as I mentioned, probably a 2nd-3rd line prospect. The first should be a mid first. I picked Sanheim because I thought out of him, Morin, Provorov and Gostisbehere Toronto would probably want Morin or Provorov, which I don't think Philly would move, yet Toronto would likely take Sanheim, but pass on Gostisbehere.
Frattin could be used as a 4th liner or extra, and although Rupert is small, he plays a Philly style and they might like him. From our side, they are mostly just contract equalization.
For us, we turn the page a little more, and add more prospects and another 1st.

Why I thought Philly would.
Umberger has negative value, so to speak and although MacDonald is useful, he is quite overpaid. As you pointed out, moving those two contracts while upgrading their D, would be huge. With Voracek and Courturier getting big raises next season adding about $6.6 mil in cap salary, they need to find room. Add that B.Schenn and Gudas are RFA and Raffl is UFA, I think the longer Philly waits to make a move, the more the vultures will circle and they will risk losing a quality player to make space(ala Chicago) or have to add a solid prospector/pick to Umberger/Lecavalier/MacDonald while getting no useful return. They would immediately get $2mil in cap space, remove 2 poor contracts, leaving only one left and improve their D. The trade allows them to just let Schenn go end of season or move him at the deadline to recoup a little.

I felt considering the situations of both teams, it is a move that makes sense for both.

Umberger has only two years left on his contract. If they were to retain, and maybe throw in a middling pick/prospect, the Flyers might generate some interest. I'm not sure that a move of this magnitude involving Lindholm, 1st and Sanheim is in order, or the kind of move that will be necessary although they do need to do something because of their cap situation.

When viewing these trade proposals, you got to assume that our trading opponent will consider a range of options, not just the one that provides immense benefits for the Leafs.

 

[RLF]

Umberger has only two years left on his contract. If they were to retain, and maybe throw in a middling pick/prospect, the Flyers might generate some interest. I'm not sure that a move of this magnitude involving Lindholm, 1st and Sanheim is in order, or the kind of move that will be necessary although they do need to do something because of their cap situation.

When viewing these trade proposals, you got to assume that our trading opponent will consider a range of options, not just the one that provides immense benefits for the Leafs.

Yes, Umberger has only 2 years left, but how does retaining help them cap wise. MacDonald has 5 left, only 1 year less than Dion.
You maybe right that we could not get Lindholm, 1st and Sanheim, but it's not just about their cap, they need major improvement on D. The taking of Umberger on our part saves them 2.6 mil per season, the first two seasons. This makes the upgrade to Phaneuf from MacD almost a wash money wise AND removes two contracts in one move.
If they move MacD and Umberger separately, it could cost them almost as much in prospects and not return a player of Dion's calibre. It's really about Sanheim I seems, but D prospects is where Philly's strength is. Maybe Sanheim becomes Alt, but as I said, when have you seen a team able to move two, big poor contracts in one deal AND get a top pairing D in return? Some disagree, but I don't think the value is that far off.

 

[piikerr]

No, the comparison is fact. For Reinhart to become Bergeron-level, he'd have to take an unprecedented advancement in development.

At the same age, Bergeron was producing at 192% of average for that league for that year in the NHL (hence alpha of 1.92). Reinhart has an alpha of 2.08 in the WHL -- as a man playing against boys.

If Reinhart was going to be Bergeron-level, and wasn't already playing in the NHL putting up 0.9ppg, he'd probably have needed to be putting up 1.3ppg in the AHL last year to stand a chance of keeping up with the development necessary to get there.

To bet on Reinhart becoming a 0.7-0.9ppg defensive superstar in the NHL, you're calling for some of the most improbably accelerating in player development that's ever occurred. Not saying it's impossible... buuuuut it's not looking likely.

Points aren't the entirety of what makes a player. Too many variables in analytics to be 100% sure of what players are especially when they came from different leagues. 2 years and we'll see what buffalo has with him

 

[darrylsittler27]

Reinhart is the definition of over rated.

Points aren't the entirety of what makes a player. Too many variables in analytics to be 100% sure of what players are especially when they came from different leagues. 2 years and we'll see what buffalo has with him

Because he likely is NHL ready but the ceiling they project isn't there.At best, he is a number 2 C, he is the instant "You see! I told you so drafted in my pool.." factor. He is older than those behind him and played against boys. In a year, saying he is better than Nylander and or Marner will look stupid.

 

[Duffman955]

Because he likely is NHL ready but the ceiling they project isn't there.At best, he is a number 2 C, he is the instant "You see! I told you so drafted in my pool.." factor. He is older than those behind him and played against boys. In a year, saying he is better than Nylander and or Marner will look stupid.

He was outperformed by Marner this year by a large margin and is a year older.

The year after draft, Reinhart put up 1.38 PPG,
In comparison Kadri put up 1.66 PPG

 

[Menzinger]

One of the most under impressive prospects out there, especially given where he was drafted.

 

[darrylsittler27]

and proves...

One of the most under impressive prospects out there, especially given where he was drafted.

These ratings should be done by the people who know more than the media about hockey, the fans. These media types are becoming obsolete.

 

[TheCLAM]

Nooooot going to happen. Reinhart will be almost 20 (19.9) going into this season. Bergeron was starting his second full season in the NHL, and put up 0.9ppg, starting his season as a 20 (20.2) year-old.

Reinhart's analogue is Brayden Schenn or Jarret Stoll, not Patrice Bergeron.

He hasn't even played a season in the NHL, it's impossible to project a 20 year old kid based on previous development paths. Reinhart has very good tools that will compliment Eichel defensively

 

[piikerr]

He hasn't even played a season in the NHL, it's impossible to project a 20 year old kid based on previous development paths. Reinhart has very good tools that will compliment Eichel defensively

Thank you

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Umberger has only two years left on his contract. If they were to retain, and maybe throw in a middling pick/prospect, the Flyers might generate some interest. I'm not sure that a move of this magnitude involving Lindholm, 1st and Sanheim is in order, or the kind of move that will be necessary although they do need to do something because of their cap situation.

When viewing these trade proposals, you got to assume that our trading opponent will consider a range of options, not just the one that provides immense benefits for the Leafs.

Yes, Umberger has only 2 years left, but how does retaining help them cap wise. MacDonald has 5 left, only 1 year less than Dion.
You maybe right that we could not get Lindholm, 1st and Sanheim, but it's not just about their cap, they need major improvement on D. The taking of Umberger on our part saves them 2.6 mil per season, the first two seasons. This makes the upgrade to Phaneuf from MacD almost a wash money wise AND removes two contracts in one move.
If they move MacD and Umberger separately, it could cost them almost as much in prospects and not return a player of Dion's calibre. It's really about Sanheim I seems, but D prospects is where Philly's strength is. Maybe Sanheim becomes Alt, but as I said, when have you seen a team able to move two, big poor contracts in one deal AND get a top pairing D in return? Some disagree, but I don't think the value is that far off.

Umberger's salary is $4.6. As an "example", if they were to retain $1.7 m in a trade, the Flyers would reduce their team cap by $2.9 m.

Salary cap sites have them at over at about $500 k over cap (different sites present different info), so they don't need to make big adjustments. They are well below cap in 2016/17 and thus in good shape at that point.

Lastly, Flyers have depth and quality defenders in their prospect pipeline. A panic strategy is not necessary because they will graduate defenders to the big club in due course anyhow.

 

[TheCLAM]

Thank you

Some posters just lack the knowledge and make assumptions based on little information.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Frazer McLaren was signed by San Jose. Funny how he has a contract before Franson.

What is with San Jose and enforcers? They signed John Scott last year, and now McLaren this year. I'm not surprised; they are the team that paid a 1st and a prospect for an average backup goalie. They have made some pretty bad mistakes.

 

[TheCLAM]

Frazer McLaren was signed by San Jose. Funny how he has a contract before Franson.

What is with San Jose and enforcers? They signed John Scott last year, and now McLaren this year. I'm not surprised; they are the team that paid a 1st and a prospect for an average backup goalie. They have made some pretty bad mistakes.

Fighters are more useful in the west due to it's physical nature. It's a dying role no doubt, but take into account the physicality of the west.

Franson un-signed vs McLaren and other's being signed for peanuts isn't a reflection of NHL usefulness.

 

[siddy]

Fighters are more useful in the west due to it's physical nature. It's a dying role no doubt, but take into account the physicality of the west.

That's why Chicago has an 'enforcer'. McClaren skating for 2-6 minutes a night doesn't really help your first liners or those that need to be protected.

It's just a silly move by a team that isn't run very well anymore.

 

[Menzinger]

Frazer McLaren was signed by San Jose. Funny how he has a contract before Franson.

What is with San Jose and enforcers? They signed John Scott last year, and now McLaren this year. I'm not surprised; they are the team that paid a 1st and a prospect for an average backup goalie. They have made some pretty bad mistakes.

Joe Thornton gets a lot of unjust criticism - when a lot of the Sharks poor playoff performances can be attributed in part to having a terrible 4th line. Their GM loves to fill it up with plugs.

 

[piikerr]

That's why Chicago has an 'enforcer'. McClaren skating for 2-6 minutes a night doesn't really help your first liners or those that need to be protected.

It's just a silly move by a team that isn't run very well anymore.

When Toronto had Brown, Orr, and Mclaren they were one of the scariest teams in the league. We'd have a fight a game and it got the other team off of their game. Its a dying role, but intimidation is a nice factor to have.

 

[TheCLAM]

That's why Chicago has an 'enforcer'. McClaren skating for 2-6 minutes a night doesn't really help your first liners or those that need to be protected.

It's just a silly move by a team that isn't run very well anymore.

I'm not aruging the dying "role" of the enforcer. Some teams however do feel the need to add this depth on their team. It's not exactly silly, McLaren is capable of taking a regular season shift. He's realsitically going to played in match-ups only and be scratched or a waiver wire guy. Let's not look into the signing too literally.

Bickell, Carcillo, Shaw, Desjardins are all some pretty tough customers. This doesn't even take into account their talented players with tough personas. Some teams don't have the luxury of having players that are gritty throughout the line-up

 

[The Magic Man]

When Toronto had Brown, Orr, and Mclaren they were one of the scariest teams in the league. We'd have a fight a game and it got the other team off of their game. Its a dying role, but intimidation is a nice factor to have.

Fraser on D as well. It was definitely an intimidating team. Building like that is good enough to get you a playoff round or 2 but you'll never win it all that way. Not unless your tough and committed to D, top to bottom.

That was a lot more fun then anything I've seen since Roberts was here.

 

[TheCLAM]

when toronto had brown, orr, and mclaren they were one of the scariest teams in the league. We'd have a fight a game and it got the other team off of their game. Its a dying role, but intimidation is a nice factor to have.

+100

 

[SeaOfBlue]

When Toronto had Brown, Orr, and Mclaren they were one of the scariest teams in the league. We'd have a fight a game and it got the other team off of their game. Its a dying role, but intimidation is a nice factor to have.

I'm all for guys with intimidation. It's a big reason why I think Dion Phaneuf has a lot of value. Even Colton Orr and Frazer McLaren showed they could do more than just fight. Although guys like them are not really useful anymore when you could get someone like Sam Carrick there instead. Carrick is a good fighter, but when he's not fighting, he's still a very useful player. Those are the type of players that need to be the new "enforcers" in the league.

I just don't want John Scott in the league. Or any dirty enforcers. Colton Orr and Frazer McLaren were always there to provide energy, put up some big hits and protect the teammates. I don't remember a time they were sent out to injure another team's player (other than punching them in the face in a legit fight).

 

[rdawg1234]

Fraser on D as well. It was definitely an intimidating team. Building like that is good enough to get you a playoff round or 2 but you'll never win it all that way. Not unless your tough and committed to D, top to bottom.

That was a lot more fun then anything I've seen since Roberts was here.

It was a shortened season too, yes we did well to start but in a normal season that wouldn't and didn't work for us at all(see the beggining of the 2013-14 season)

as soon as the conditioning came back for most of the league and the players caught up the leafs started regressing, I mean Edmonton actually did okay that year, it was just an anomaly.