Blue Jays Discussion: free agency #2: Jays sign Cuban Gurriel Jr 7yr\22 mill, & Kendry Morales 3yr\33 mill)

[Paladin2799]

Eaton is an elite player and has been for 3 years now, and the move from center to Right has only enhanced that. He was a 6 WAR player last year, the 2nd best RF ahead of names like George Springer, Nelson Cruz, Stephen Piscotty, Gregory Polanco, and even Bryce Harper (he had an awful year by his standards but still). He ranked as the 5th best offensive RF ahead of Mark Trumbo, and the absolute best defensively in RF ahead of Jason Hayward according to Fangraphs. What makes him so valued is that elite skillset combined with team control and being a great value on that contract being paid $21.2 total until 2019 plus 2 reasonable option years. The man will be paid $2.8 next season, that's a huge bargain for the value he brings all over the field. This lets the Jays potentially invest in other areas to bolster the roster if he was acquired.

Offensively he combines good Walk rates and Strikeout rates (8.9% and 16.3% last season respectively) with an all fields approach to post a strong AVG and OBP. He has good speed to steal 15-20 bases, and a bit of power both to the gaps and over the fence (back to back 14 HR seasons as well as back to back 9 triple seasons). He has a mostly groundball tendency on his hits, but he hits a lot of line drives as well which when coupled with his high medium to Hard contact rates, his floor becomes steady and high. He's an explosive player all over the field and he is a guy I'm pleased to hear the Jays show interest in along with Fowler.

Not exactly sure what it would cost to acquire him from the White Sox, but it sounds like they are looking to start over and their prospect cupboard is pretty bare. I would think it would start with a guy a like Richard Urena, a SS of the future which they don't have anywhere close to the majors. I would then think they would want either Stroman or Vlad Guerrero Jr. Then either a guy like Reid-Foley or Alford. If Guerrero was the guy in the package, there might be A ball pitcher(s) sent too because of how far away he is. If they wanted to diversify, some upside arms like Perdomo or Justin Maese might be of interest as well. Additionally, David Robertson is potentially on the block from CHW as well, so maybe him as part of the package coming back to Toronto along with Eaton would help ease the loss of Prospects.

So you want the jays to give up arguably 3 prospects in the top5 of their farm? As well as potentially throwing in an elite young arm in stroman?

Has there ever been a trade with that sort of premium ever before?

I think you're bat**** crazy in terms of the cost.

If Toronto gives up Stroman-Urena-Alford we should string the GM up.

 

[Woodman19]

I know it's expensive in terms of prospects but the thought if a

Fowler - Pillar - Eaton. Outfield looks fantastic defensively.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Eaton is an elite player and has been for 3 years now, and the move from center to Right has only enhanced that. He was a 6 WAR player last year, the 2nd best RF ahead of names like George Springer, Nelson Cruz, Stephen Piscotty, Gregory Polanco, and even Bryce Harper (he had an awful year by his standards but still). He ranked as the 5th best offensive RF ahead of Mark Trumbo, and the absolute best defensively in RF ahead of Jason Hayward according to Fangraphs. What makes him so valued is that elite skillset combined with team control and being a great value on that contract being paid $21.2 total until 2019 plus 2 reasonable option years. The man will be paid $2.8 next season, that's a huge bargain for the value he brings all over the field. This lets the Jays potentially invest in other areas to bolster the roster if he was acquired.

Offensively he combines good Walk rates and Strikeout rates (8.9% and 16.3% last season respectively) with an all fields approach to post a strong AVG and OBP. He has good speed to steal 15-20 bases, and a bit of power both to the gaps and over the fence (back to back 14 HR seasons as well as back to back 9 triple seasons). He has a mostly groundball tendency on his hits, but he hits a lot of line drives as well which when coupled with his high medium to Hard contact rates, his floor becomes steady and high. He's an explosive player all over the field and he is a guy I'm pleased to hear the Jays show interest in along with Fowler.

Not exactly sure what it would cost to acquire him from the White Sox, but it sounds like they are looking to start over and their prospect cupboard is pretty bare. I would think it would start with a guy a like Richard Urena, a SS of the future which they don't have anywhere close to the majors. I would then think they would want either Stroman or Vlad Guerrero Jr. Then either a guy like Reid-Foley or Alford. If Guerrero was the guy in the package, there might be A ball pitcher(s) sent too because of how far away he is. If they wanted to diversify, some upside arms like Perdomo or Justin Maese might be of interest as well. Additionally, David Robertson is potentially on the block from CHW as well, so maybe him as part of the package coming back to Toronto along with Eaton would help ease the loss of Prospects.

I mean, he's never had a wRC+ of 120 or wOBA of .350. I would not call him elite, and agree with NN that he's now become a bit overrated due to the defense (and inflated fWAR thereof).

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...am=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d

He's really middle of the road when it comes to his bat. Would've been a sneaky pickup a few years ago when fWAR was far less popular. But now, most people are wise to it, and the cost is likely much higher.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I know it's expensive in terms of prospects but the thought if a

Fowler - Pillar - Eaton. Outfield looks fantastic defensively.

It would look very decent offensively too, and change the nature of your line significantly. A Fowler signing just makes too much sense, if he's willing to move to a corner outfield spot.

I'm still holding out hope that the owner in Arizona is annoyed enough to want to rebuild and the GM would be willing to sell low on AJ Pollock and David Peralta.

 

[Woodman19]

It would look very decent offensively too, and change the nature of your line significantly. A Fowler signing just makes too much sense, if he's willing to move to a corner outfield spot.

I'm still holding out hope that the owner in Arizona is annoyed enough to want to rebuild and the GM would be willing to sell low on AJ Pollock and David Peralta.

S Fowler
L Eaton
R Donaldson
S Morales
R Tulowitzki
R Martin
S Smoak
R Travis
R Pillar

?

 

[ShaneFalco]

Maybe Pillar would be the one to move to the corner?
Or is he that much better than Fowler defensively that he should stay?

 

[zeke]

So many of you seem to be under the impression that this roster is still an actual contender; when in reality our 2-3 year window of actual contention passed and we failed to win.

Reality: back to back ALCS, only one impact player from last year potentially being lost.

Your impression is wrong.

 

[Bob Barker]

Maybe Pillar would be the one to move to the corner?
Or is he that much better than Fowler defensively that he should stay?

Defensively you definitely want Pillar in CF.

 

[zeke]

Eaton is an elite player and has been for 3 years now,

Eaton has never been an elite player.

The only thing "elite" on his resume is a small sample 1 year ridiculous defensive leap in RF after years of being a poor defensive CF.

 

[Discoverer]

As a player, Eaton would be a pretty much perfect fit for this team. But it probably doesn't make sense to give up what the White Sox would want in return.

Over the next five years, he's basically being paid to be a 1 WAR player, and even then the two most expensive years are team options.

 

[Habsawce]

They cannot have Smoak do anything more than platooning. They can't.

 

[Eyedea]

Not exactly sure what it would cost to acquire him from the White Sox, but it sounds like they are looking to start over and their prospect cupboard is pretty bare. I would think it would start with a guy a like Richard Urena, a SS of the future which they don't have anywhere close to the majors. I would then think they would want either Stroman or Vlad Guerrero Jr. Then either a guy like Reid-Foley or Alford. If Guerrero was the guy in the package, there might be A ball pitcher(s) sent too because of how far away he is. If they wanted to diversify, some upside arms like Perdomo or Justin Maese might be of interest as well. Additionally, David Robertson is potentially on the block from CHW as well, so maybe him as part of the package coming back to Toronto along with Eaton would help ease the loss of Prospects.

They have one in the majors. Tim Anderson.

 

[Discoverer]

Reality: back to back ALCS, only one impact player from last year potentially being lost.

Your impression is wrong.

Yeah, people talk about the free agent losses as if they're all devastating when in reality two of the three offensive players being lost provided below-average production. Edwin will be tough to replace, but both Bautista and Saunders were worth 1.4 fWAR in 2016. Carlos Gomez and Matt Holliday each project to be better than that. So does Steve Pearce. So do various platoon combinations.

If you're just looking to compare the team to last year, then there are plenty of ways to replace the outgoing production.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

They cannot have Smoak do anything more than platooning. They can't.

He's bad from both sides of the plate. If you're playing him, you're playing him. No real reason to platoon the guy.

 

[Habsawce]

He's bad from both sides of the plate. If you're playing him, you're playing him. No real reason to platoon the guy.

Personally I'd rather have him as a bench player to give an actual every day player a break.

 

[Discoverer]

He's bad from both sides of the plate. If you're playing him, you're playing him. No real reason to platoon the guy.

Career wRC+:

104 vs. RHP
82 vs. LHP

Since joining the Jays:

100 vs. RHP
82 vs. LHP

He not good, but he's pretty clearly better against righties.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Career wRC+:

104 vs. RHP
82 vs. LHP

Since joining the Jays:

100 vs. RHP
82 vs. LHP

He not good, but he's pretty clearly better against righties.

I never said he had even splits. I simply sad he was bad, and inferred they're not nearly extreme enough to justify platooning him. If you're playing him, you're playing him. Doodoo is doodoo.

 

[King Mapes]

I know it's expensive in terms of prospects but the thought if a

Fowler - Pillar - Eaton. Outfield looks fantastic defensively.

Which is something our corner OFers were terrible at.

 

[Discoverer]

I never said he had even splits. I simply sad he was bad, and inferred they're not nearly extreme enough to justify platooning him. If you're playing him, you're playing him. Doodoo is doodoo.

Sure, and "average" is not doodoo. If you find someone with opposite platoon splits, you platoon them.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Sure, and "average" is not doodoo. If you find someone with opposite platoon splits, you platoon them.

100 is league average for all hitters, not first basemen or DH's.

I get what you're saying. However, in a hypothetical, if you were to sign a Steve Pearce who hits Lefties better than he hits righties, you still would still not platoon him with Justin Smoak...because even his weaker side split is better than Smoak's stronger side split.

 

[Garlando]

Double Post

 

[Garlando]

Eaton has never been an elite player.

Eaton maybe hasn't been elite, but he's been really damn good for 3 years now, ranking as a top 20 OF in terms of WAR in 2 out of 3 years (one year he missed out due to injuries and just missed out). Now that he is playing in a corner OF position and out of CF where he was a bit of an enigma, he provides elite total value. Here is a good article on his defensive prowess in RF
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-watch-adam-eaton-save-12-runs/

Go back to 2014, his 118 wRC+ was tied for 22nd among OFs with Christian Yelich and better than Adam Jones. In 2015, his 119 wRC+ tied him for 17th among OFs with Justin Upton, Mookie Betts, and was better than Starling Marte, Carlos Gonzalez, and Adam Jones. Last year his wRC+ fell a bit to 115, but his total offensive WAR was actually higher than the likes of Mark Trumbo who led the league in HRs. Overall he's been a 15-20% better hitter than league average over three years while accumulating the 10th highest WAR among OFs in that time, 2 of those years not playing in his best position.

They have one in the majors. Tim Anderson.

I did forget about Tim Anderson who was promoted mid-way through last season and had an interesting start to his career. 27% K rate with a 3% walk rate made him a liability at the plate despite his speed and surprising power. Defensively he was actually pretty good on the back of strong UZR and Range numbers. He did have 14 errors in 98 games which is bad. They also have Brett Lawrie playing 2nd base right now, he of the 92 wRC+ last season along with a 28.4% K rate and sub-par defensive ratings at the position. My point is the White Sox need up the middle players, Richard Urena seems like a fit as they are bereft of talent there aside from Anderson and Jake Peter who looks more like a utility man.

 

[Discoverer]

100 is league average for all hitters, not first basemen or DH's.

I get what you're saying. However, in a hypothetical, if you were to sign a Steve Pearce who hits Lefties better than he hits righties, you still would still not platoon him with Justin Smoak...because even his weaker side split is better than Smoak's stronger side split.

Well... of course. I'm talking about scenarios where they have the opportunity to bring in a pure lefty masher. Smoak isn't good, but he doesn't actively hurt your offense against righties the way he does against lefties.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Eaton maybe hasn't been elite, but he's been really damn good for 3 years now, ranking as a top 20 OF in terms of WAR in 2 out of 3 years (one year he missed out due to injuries and just missed out). Now that he is playing in a corner OF position and out of CF where he was a bit of an enigma, he provides elite total value. Here is a good article on his defensive prowess in RF
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-watch-adam-eaton-save-12-runs/

Go back to 2014, his 118 wRC+ was tied for 22nd among OFs with Christian Yelich and better than Adam Jones. In 2015, his 119 wRC+ tied him for 17th among OFs with Justin Upton, Mookie Betts, and was better than Starling Marte, Carlos Gonzalez, and Adam Jones. Last year his wRC+ fell a bit to 115, but his total offensive WAR was actually higher than the likes of Mark Trumbo who led the league in HRs. Overall he's been a 15-20% better hitter than league average over three years while accumulating the 10th highest WAR among OFs in that time, 2 of those years not playing in his best position.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...am=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d

 

[Discoverer]

Even if you regress Eaton's defensive value all the way back to zero (which would obviously be extremely stupid, since you would have to make the assumption that all of UZR, DRS and Inside Edge were wrong about him to the tune of ~20 runs, more than half of which was made up of a significantly less subjective OF assist total, at that he actually didn't improve at all by moving to RF) then Eaton would be coming off a ~4 WAR season that would rank him just outside the top ten in baseball.

I think it's fair to expect a 3-4 WAR player going forward. He's really good, and he's on an amazing contract. Even if you don't think he'll get the return of a 6 WAR player, it'll still be huge.