Blue Jays Discussion: free agency #2: Jays sign Cuban Gurriel Jr 7yr\22 mill, & Kendry Morales 3yr\33 mill)

[Discoverer]

Yet, it doesn't explain why they deserve more. They are all grossly over paid, period. And only in sports is it supposedly logical that it's an equal split between owners and employees.

The players aren't even really the employees. They're the product.

 

[zeke]

Yet, it doesn't explain why they deserve more. They are all grossly over paid, period. And only in sports is it supposedly logical that it's an equal split between owners and employees.

actually in any business built on the backs of the elite of elite talent, the performers get the money.

 

[zeke]

The players aren't even really the employees. They're the product.

yeah that's a better way of putting it.

 

[FearTheBeard]

I don't think that poster was comparing the two as players. But more comparing the cost to bring those players in.

Is what the Jays would have to give up to get Eaton worth it? How about Jay? That's the discussion that's relevant here.

The team might be better off signing a guy for free short and long term than trading away a mitt full of assets to get Eaton for instance.

I understand full well he was comparing the cost. My point was it's not relevant as they don't provide comparable value. One guy fills a huge need for this team the other doesn't. It shouldnt matter what Jay cost's if his value is redundant on this roster.
Now, if he was talking about a free agent/trade that would actually be a starter on this team, it would be different. But you can't say dont trade for Adam Eaton when we could just sign Jon Jay.

It's like if we had a whole at SS saying we should just place Ryan Goins there instead of trading assets for Brandon Crawford.

Im not saying go out and trade the farm for Eaton. But Eaton would fill a huge whole on this team. If we aren't getting him suggest a player who would do the same, where the cost may be more appropriate. Jon Jay is not that player

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Fun fact about Jon Jay: Has a career wRC+ of 106, and has somewhat even splits.

Wouldn't be a bad LF to bat at the bottom of your order. Good ball player. Like a not so poor man's Carrera.

 

[doorman]

actually in any business built on the backs of the elite of elite talent, the performers get the money.

LOL, wow, is all I can say. Where would these "performers" be with out the owners? Or everyone else who does their job to allow them to perform? I shouldn't say that I suppose, as everyone is entitled to their opinions. But when does enough become enough? They don't pay for any of their travel, accommodations, food, medical etc.

 

[metafour]

Reality: back to back ALCS, only one impact player from last year potentially being lost.

Your impression is wrong.

Reality: An aging roster on both sides of the ball that was carried by a rotation which miraculously managed to stay healthy all of last season. No one wants to talk about it, but what is the actual likelihood that Happ and Estrada continue to pitch at the level they pitched at last season? You've got an offense now carried by Donaldson coming off hip surgery (I'm interested to see what happens with his defense moving forward) with guys like Tulo, Martin likely to continue regressing (Martin in particular looked utterly useless to end last season). The bullpen? You just lost your second best reliever (sorry Biagini) off of a bullpen that was saved last season by ancient guys like Benoit and Grilli coming out of nowhere. Benoit is gone, and you have as good a chance of Grilli going back to his Atlanta form as you do of him repeating his Toronto success.

What you see is a Wild Card contending team if everything goes right. I don't think that a lot of you appreciate the level of potential (negative) variance that comes with our roster. The main issue being that most of its players are getting worse (or can be expected to get worse), with not enough of the opposite. There is a reason why they are being extremely careful with adding on top of this roster.

 

[FearTheBeard]

Fun fact about Jon Jay: Has a career wRC+ of 106, and has somewhat even splits.

Wouldn't be a bad LF to bat at the bottom of your order. Good ball player. Like a not so poor man's Carrera.

He used to bring positive speed and defence. With age that has diminished. He projects to have an 88 wRC+ in his age 32 season. Why would you need him if he's only a modest upgrade over Carrera?

 

[Kurtz]

LOL, wow, is all I can say. Where would these "performers" be with out the owners? Or everyone else who does their job to allow them to perform? I shouldn't say that I suppose, as everyone is entitled to their opinions. But when does enough become enough? They don't pay for any of their travel, accommodations, food, medical etc.

Capitalism, man. In socialist Cuba, players play for peanuts (not literally...I don't think)...but in most other places in the world, high profile athletes get paid more than surgeons. That's just the way it is.


In any case, I mentioned Jon Jay as a Shatkins type of signing a couple of months ago. I think Matt Holliday is their type of signing too (if he's ok with coming here). Both low risk, medium reward, and add a bit of versatility to the club. While not rumoured to do so, I think we'll end up with one of these guys.

By the same token, I very much doubt we'd end up with Eaton. We'd have to give up the farm, and that's not Shatkins mo.

 

[zeke]

Reality: An aging roster on both sides of the ball

every roster is aging. the jays actually don't have many legit old players. the only guys over 33 are all gone.

that was carried by a rotation which miraculously managed to stay healthy all of last season. No one wants to talk about it, but what is the actual likelihood that Happ and Estrada continue to pitch at the level they pitched at last season?

The beauty of the rotation is that even if regression hits, there's as much reason to believe there will be positive regression (stro, liriano) as negative (happ, estrada).

You've got an offense now carried by Donaldson coming off hip surgery (I'm interested to see what happens with his defense moving forward) with guys like Tulo, Martin likely to continue regressing (Martin in particular looked utterly useless to end last season).

Donaldson is elite, Tulo and Martin both solid.

The bullpen? You just lost your second best reliever (sorry Biagini) off of a bullpen that was saved last season by ancient guys like Benoit and Grilli coming out of nowhere. Benoit is gone, and you have as good a chance of Grilli going back to his Atlanta form as you do of him repeating his Toronto success.

We're bringing back the top of the bullpen all intact. Cecil was barely over replacement last year. Middle relievers are easy to replace.

What you see is a Wild Card contending team if everything goes right. I don't think that a lot of you appreciate the level of potential (negative) variance that comes with our roster. The main issue being that most of its players are getting worse (or can be expected to get worse), with not enough of the opposite. There is a reason why they are being extremely careful with adding on top of this roster.

I swear i heard you say the exact same thing last year.

 

[zeke]

LOL, wow, is all I can say. Where would these "performers" be with out the owners? Or everyone else who does their job to allow them to perform? I shouldn't say that I suppose, as everyone is entitled to their opinions. But when does enough become enough? They don't pay for any of their travel, accommodations, food, medical etc.

where would the owners be without the players?

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

LOL, wow, is all I can say. Where would these "performers" be with out the owners? Or everyone else who does their job to allow them to perform? I shouldn't say that I suppose, as everyone is entitled to their opinions. But when does enough become enough? They don't pay for any of their travel, accommodations, food, medical etc.

Eww this sounds eerily similar to the argument for why NCAA football and basketball players should not getting paid because "they're getting educated for free, and don't pay for travel, accommodations, food, medical, etc."

Let me guess: hockey salaries don't annoy you as much...its those NBA\NFL\MLB contracts that are sticking in your craw ?

 

[Kurtz]

He used to bring positive speed and defence. With age that has diminished. He projects to have an 88 wRC+ in his age 32 season. Why would you need him if he's only a modest upgrade over Carrera?

His career fWar:
1.1
2.3
3.5
1.8
2.4
0.3
1.1 (in only 90 games).

2015 was a very clear outlier. If healthy, you can expect a 1-2 fwar outfielder, and as he's projected to sign for 2 years at $6 mil per...he looks like he'd be a pretty safe signing. Which our organization likes.

 

[zeke]

Reality: An aging roster on both sides of the ball that was carried by a rotation which miraculously managed to stay healthy all of last season. No one wants to talk about it, but what is the actual likelihood that Happ and Estrada continue to pitch at the level they pitched at last season? You've got an offense now carried by Donaldson coming off hip surgery (I'm interested to see what happens with his defense moving forward) with guys like Tulo, Martin likely to continue regressing (Martin in particular looked utterly useless to end last season). The bullpen? You just lost your second best reliever (sorry Biagini) off of a bullpen that was saved last season by ancient guys like Benoit and Grilli coming out of nowhere. Benoit is gone, and you have as good a chance of Grilli going back to his Atlanta form as you do of him repeating his Toronto success.

What you see is a Wild Card contending team if everything goes right. I don't think that a lot of you appreciate the level of potential (negative) variance that comes with our roster. The main issue being that most of its players are getting worse (or can be expected to get worse), with not enough of the opposite. There is a reason why they are being extremely careful with adding on top of this roster.

do you appreciate how rare it is to make the ALCS 2yrs in a row?

the jays have done it twice in their 40yr history.

the red sox have done it three times in their 100+ yr history.

 

[Rysto]

where would the owners be without the players?

Seriously. Throw every MLB owner out and replace them all with a new set of billionaires. Does any fan care?

Now replace every player with the top guys from AAA, the Asian leagues, etc. Do the fans care? You better believe that they do.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

He used to bring positive speed and defence. With age that has diminished. He projects to have an 88 wRC+ in his age 32 season. Why would you need him if he's only a modest upgrade over Carrera?

Adam Eaton is projected to have a wRC+ of 104 and a sharp decline in defensive value. Why would you trade significant assets for such a player?

 

[FearTheBeard]

His career fWar:
1.1
2.3
3.5
1.8
2.4
0.3
1.1 (in only 90 games).

2015 was a very clear outlier. If healthy, you can expect a 1-2 fwar outfielder, and as he's projected to sign for 2 years at $6 mil per...he looks like he'd be a pretty safe signing. Which our organization likes.

1.1 WAR relied heavily on his unsustainable .371 BABIP especially considering his K rate climbed to an alarming 20.9%. Dont think we should expect a 32 year old to jump back to his prime years when his WAR was gathered by speed and defence (which is surely on the decline)

Adam Eaton is projected to have a wRC+ of 104 and a sharp decline in defensive value. Why would you trade significant assets for such a player?

When did I every say I would?

Also the projections seem a little fishy to me on this one. He put up wRC+ of 118 119 and 115 the last 3 years. Last year his K rate dropped, BB rate increased, and BABIP was down. Not sure why we should expect a player in his prime to suddenly post a 104 wRC+

 

[Bad News Benning]

Huh? John Jay and Adam Eaton aren't even comparable. Eaton is a 6 WAR outfielder with pop, and a mighty consistent 115 wRC+ hitter and plus defender at 27. Jon Jay is 31, had a 57 wRC+ in 2015 and had a whopping .371 BABIP last season. He's clearly going to regress back to replacement level. He's not even as valuable as Zeke Carrera for goodness sake

This isn't JON Jay vs Adam Eaton. Jay is a buy low free agent that can be signed short term to give the youngsters a little more seasoning in AA/AAA. Eaton is a sell high candidate who will likely cost more top young assets than he's worth moving forward.

If Adam Eaton is a 6 WAR player I guess that means Kevin Pillar is considered a 5 WAR player??. He's a good little player but very few players can be 6 WAR on a yearly basis and I don't think you can reasonably expect Eaton to maintain that level of production over the rest of his career. How many Outfielders have put up back to back 6 WAR seasons? Only the elite of the elite can be good for 6+ WAR every year (aka Mike Trout). If you look at the OF who have had a 6 WAR season they usually see a significant regression the following season/and or seasons. Eaton had a career season but history isn't kind to players like Eaton.

Let's look at the OF who put up 6 (or close to 6 War) in 2014 and what has happened since. I'll leave out Bautista since he's much older.

Brantley went from 6.0 to 3.7 to the DL
McCutchen went from 6.8 to 5.8 to 0.7
Gordon went from 6.4 to 2.7 to 1.2
Stanton went from 6.3 to 3.9 to 1.7
Gomez went from 5.7 to 2.7 to 0.9
Jones went from 5.5 to 3.6 to 1.4
Puig went from 5.4 to 1.5 to 1.0

This is just one example but i went through all the other years and the drop offs after 6 WAR seasons were similar. All the data points to Adam Eaton being a 3-4 War next season. That's still a very solid player but I'm not paying a kings ransom for a 3-4 WAR corner OF who is likely to regress even more in future years.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

When did I every say I would?

Also the projections seem a little fishy to me on this one. He put up wRC+ of 118 119 and 115 the last 3 years. Last year his K rate dropped, BB rate increased, and BABIP was down. Not sure why we should expect a player in his prime to suddenly post a 104 wRC+

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

You know what they say about projections...

 

[Discoverer]

that was carried by a rotation which miraculously managed to stay healthy all of last season.

This is definitely a major concern going forward. They could definitely use some depth.

No one wants to talk about it, but what is the actual likelihood that Happ and Estrada continue to pitch at the level they pitched at last season?

Probably not that bad, given that it's the second consecutive year of pitching at that level for both of them.

You've got an offense now carried by Donaldson coming off hip surgery (I'm interested to see what happens with his defense moving forward) with guys like Tulo, Martin likely to continue regressing (Martin in particular looked utterly useless to end last season).

Donaldson's surgery is a concern (as any surgery is) but he's still one of the five best players in baseball until there's evidence to suggest otherwise. Martin had a 75 wRC+ the last month of the season... with a .185 BABIP. Considering he was absolutely dominant (144 wRC+) for three full months before that, I'll cut him some slack.

The bullpen? You just lost your second best reliever (sorry Biagini) off of a bullpen that was saved last season by ancient guys like Benoit and Grilli coming out of nowhere. Benoit is gone, and you have as good a chance of Grilli going back to his Atlanta form as you do of him repeating his Toronto success.

We knew the bullpen would need to be rebuilt. It's November 22. There's no reason whatsoever to be worried about the bullpen right now.

What you see is a Wild Card contending team if everything goes right.

No, it's just a Wild Card contending team. They have a lot of talent and they're not at the point where they need everything to go right to contend. They're behind a few teams (Boston, Cleveland...) but they're right in that next group.

There is a reason why they are being extremely careful with adding on top of this roster.

I think they're being careful in an effort to move towards the "sustainable" model they've been talking about since taking over. They're trying to make smart, shorter-term deals that bridge the gap from the current group to the next one. I don't think it means they don't see themselves as a contender now, it just means they want to make sure they aren't only a contender now.

 

[Kurtz]

1.1 WAR relied heavily on his unsustainable .371 BABIP especially considering his K rate climbed to an alarming 20.9%. Dont think we should expect a 32 year old to jump back to his prime years when his WAR was gathered by speed and defence (which is surely on the decline)

Actually, if you check out Fangraphs, you see that his WAR total historically did not come from defense. He had negative defensive FWar in his first 2 seasons, and in 4 out of 7 overall seasons. In fact, his best defensive FWar contribution came in 2015.

Likewise, his fwar didn't come from base-running. He had negative base-running fwar contribution in 3 out of his 7 years.

What's interesting is that his base-running contribution was 3.3 this season, which is the 2nd best mark in his career...and really the best, since he accrued that over only 90 games.


All of that to say that no, his defense and running are not yet in statistical decline...which is reasonable, as he's only 31.

 

[FearTheBeard]

This isn't JON Jay vs Adam Eaton. Jay is a buy low free agent that can be signed short term to give the youngsters a little more seasoning in AA/AAA. Eaton is a sell high candidate who will likely cost more top young assets than he's worth moving forward.

If Adam Eaton is a 6 WAR player I guess that means Kevin Pillar is considered a 5 WAR player??. He's a good little player but very few players can be 6 WAR on a yearly basis and I don't think you can reasonably expect Eaton to maintain that level of production over the rest of his career. How many Outfielders have put up back to back 6 WAR seasons? Only the elite of the elite can be good for 6+ WAR every year (aka Mike Trout). If you look at the OF who have had a 6 WAR season they usually see a significant regression the following season/and or seasons. Eaton had a career season but history isn't kind to players like Eaton.

Let's look at the OF who put up 6 (or close to 6 War) in 2014 and what has happened since. I'll leave out Bautista since he's much older.

Brantley went from 6.0 to 3.7 to the DL
McCutchen went from 6.8 to 5.8 to 0.7
Gordon went from 6.4 to 2.7 to 1.2
Stanton went from 6.3 to 3.9 to 1.7
Gomez went from 5.7 to 2.7 to 0.9
Jones went from 5.5 to 3.6 to 1.4
Puig went from 5.4 to 1.5 to 1.0

This is just one example but i went through all the other years and the drop offs after 6 WAR seasons were similar. All the data points to Adam Eaton being a 3-4 War next season. That's still a very solid player but I'm not paying a kings ransom for a 3-4 WAR corner OF who is likely to regress even more in future years.

Why are you people so intent on the fact I would pay a kings ransom for Eaton? I never once said I would overpay for him or even trade for him. I just said he fills a hole on this team which Jay does not. His WAR spiked because he moved to RF. Even as a 3 WAR player he would fill a huge need on this team. Refer to my other posts regarding why Jay's diminishing assets and his redundant value on this roster

 

[Discoverer]

1.1 WAR relied heavily on his unsustainable .371 BABIP especially considering his K rate climbed to an alarming 20.9%. Dont think we should expect a 32 year old to jump back to his prime years when his WAR was gathered by speed and defence (which is surely on the decline)

Again, the BABIP isn't all that unsustainable given that it's not far above the norm for him, and the K% has nothing to do with BABIP regression.

 

[Discoverer]

Refer to my other posts regarding why Jay's diminishing assets and his redundant value on this roster

Most of us are just disagreeing with this point because A) Jay doesn't actually appear to be a diminishing asset but rather had a one year blip which he has now almost entirely recovered from, and B) he's not redundant because he's significantly better than Carrera, who, if absolutely everything breaks right for him over the course of the season, will likely be almost as good as Jon Jay.

EDIT: I should add that I say all this as someone who's been pretty vocally against Jon Jay any time his name has come up in trade discussions the last couple years.

 

[metafour]

every roster is aging. the jays actually don't have many legit old players. the only guys over 33 are all gone.

Every roster is aging, but certain teams are built around a core that is either young or clearly within their prime (ie: the Cubs). Why are you looking at age as some sort of numerical value? Martin and Tulowitzki are clearly shells of their former selves, regardless if they are "32.333" or "34". Your premise isn't even accurate: Martin is 3 months from 34, Happ is 34, Estrada is over 33. Martin could barely run to first base and at the plate looked like he was closing his eyes and guessing by the end of the season...he's old.

The beauty of the rotation is that even if regression hits, there's as much reason to believe there will be positive regression (stro, liriano) as negative (happ, estrada).

Stroman was worth 3.6 wins last year (since you seem to love WAR so much), so I'm not sure how much "positive regression" you expect there. What is he going to positively regress to? 5 WAR?

Donaldson is elite, Tulo and Martin both solid.

I'm talking about offense. Tulo and Martin were 102 and 99 wRC+ hitters last season.

We're bringing back the top of the bullpen all intact. Cecil was barely over replacement last year. Middle relievers are easy to replace.

Cecil is our second best reliever, regardless of what your one-year WAR analysis wants to dictate. "Barely over replacement" with his 11.05 K/9 and 1.96 BB/9 LOL. His WAR looks like crap because his HR rate of last season is obviously not real.