Fire Hakstol

[macleish1974]

In 2010 was not Giroux the 3rd line center? And lord-y did we not go to the SCF with Leighton? But we had "time-out" Lavi as the coach.

In 2018, Giroux is only one left, correct? And he is not even a C. But our 1 and 2 centers are very close to being as good as Carter and Richards.....maybe in the future they will be even better. Our goaltending should be a plus rather a minus compared to Leighton, correct? The horrible-ness for me is the bottom six is dreadfully untalented at back checking and handling their defensive responsibilities in the D-zone. Ditto on the bottom 4 D, where many times they have forgetful , pitiful awareness.

Remember the old adage: a professional practices till he cannot get it wrong, an amateur practices till he can get it right.

These bottom 6 and bottom 4 are supposed to be professionals and know their job. And like any job you do, you practice till you cannot get it wrong. And how is it true? You can learn on the fly, which is probably not a wise choice unless the company is less than stellar and both the company and you will fail or you have a great coach to help you along the path to success; if you are a salesperson, your sales manager should be a great teacher.

Upshot:

1. Either the players are themselves not good enough to learn, or if you like, practice until they cannot get it wrong.
2 Or the coaches cannot teach their players to get to the point where each player cannot get it wrong. And if you are a really talented coach you teach not only to get to the point of not getting it wrong, you get them beyond "exceeds expectations". Or else one of 2 things , the players are let go or traded or the coach goes. And if you are the ones that get traded or a coach that gets fired, hopefully you do not wind up in some backwater in the boonies where even river rats run away from you rather than nawing at your shoes.

 

[deadhead]

At some point, as an organization, we desperately needed to make this shift to a draft-centric approach - we waited too long, but we are finally on course. It's the only way - the only way - to build something sustainable in the cap era. Once you have the architecture in place, you can make short-term moves and "go for it" moves to put yourself over the top. There's no way we are at that point yet - we have the architecture in place, but the building isn't built. There are just too many moves we would need to make to turn us into a contender now, and that volume of change would entail us shifting what we are doing, and after 30+ years of waiting for us to take this approach, I'm not willing to sacrifice it so that G and Couts and Jake can see their window open a couple of years early.

TRUST THE PROCESS lolz

Resistance is futile, sayeth the Borg.

We're playing with "house money" this year, when Hextall traded Schenn for draft picks, he wrote the season off (if it was just about getting rid of Schenn to make room for Patrick and Konecny, he could have traded for a forward and better defensive depth).

The top 6 and top D pair are set for an extended period (by the time G and V decline to the point they don't belong on the top six, replacements will be available and marinated).
So for the next 2-3 years we're talking filling out the bottom of the roster, and we have lots of prospects coming up to do so.
But Hart and Sandstrom won't be available until probably 2019-20 for Hart and 2020-21 for Sandstrom (2022 for Ustimenko?).
Once they arrive, then the rebuild is finished and it's time for "eye on the prize."

Next year is about continuing the transition, Sanheim is back up, NAK and Morin are locks.
Frost, Vorobyev, Myers might make the roster or be delayed until 2019-20.
MV to me is looking like Knight, organizational depth.
Lehigh will be loaded next year, so there will be a lot of competition in 2019-20.

Reason not to trade a 1st rd pick for young veteran help - the ED, a draft pick won't be exposed, a young veteran might be, though at this point we're going to lose a good defenseman (or get ripped off trying to protect him). So that may be a moot point.

Trading Simmonds is almost inevitable (or letting him play out his contract), you can't pay that kind of money for a 3rd line wing.
Laughton, Raffl, NAK are probably the only ones guaranteed a job next year in the bottom six. Three spots open.
Sanheim, Morin, Hagg are probably set, which leaves two D-men jobs open. Gudas was set but his performance this year raises questions.

So five spots to fill out, whether with the current retreads, or trades, or FA.
None of these spots warrant a major acquisition, just upgrades over the current scrubs.

 

[Stizzle]

These posts should be required reading and stickied somewhere.

This team is 26th in shot attempts (many coming from the point), 30th in scoring chances, and 29th in high danger scoring chances 5v5. The only way you are scoring at a respectable clip that way is if you are shooting at unsustainably high percentages. It's a pretty simple concept.

But if you are afraid of giving up an odd man rush once in a while, you are not going to score in this league.

Only 6 teams in the league score at a lower clip than the Flyers 5v5- Detroit, Carolina, Vancouver, Montreal, Arizona, and Buffalo. Not the company you want to have.

All of those teams are shooting well below the league average too so lack of skill factors in there. The Flyers are right around it. They don't score because of a lack of volume.

 

[deadhead]

Flyers are 23rd in xGF, 9th in xGA, 18th in xGF%. About what you would have expected in September, a disciplined, good defensive team that lacks offensive firepower.

St Louis is 12th in xGF%, either they have the worst luck in the league or they can't execute the opportunities they create.
Here are the crazy teams, Carolina 4th in xGF% (those goalies!), Montreal 7th, CBJ 11th (with Bob, they should be pushing 100 points).
Florida is 22nd, Washington is 27th

And why Corsi isn't that valuable:
Carolina is 1st in CF%, Chicago 4th, CBJ 6th, St Louis 11th, Edmonton 12th (Flyers are 17th).

 

[Magua]

And why Corsi isn't that valuable:
Carolina is 1st in CF%, Chicago 4th, CBJ 6th, St Louis 11th, Edmonton 12th (Flyers are 17th).

The entire stats community is in shambles right now, head. But from our rubble, bodies being crushed, just to give a last gasp of a counter-argument........

Bruins 1st (score adjusted), Predators 4th, Lightning 6th, Penguins 7th, Jets 8th, Knights 9th, CBJ 10th, Stars 12th, Sharks 13th, Leafs 16th.

Of course we have other xGF% based stats to evaluate as well, but 10/16, with another few bubble teams in that mix (some with a fatal flaw like goaltending, which isn't relevant), doesn't seem like noise to me. And wouldn't you know, it's just a 1 year sample size! And special teams do exist as well to balance out 5v5 issues within singular seasons.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Seems like pendulum has swung the other way and hak will be safe for one more year.

 

[Tripod]

Saw this post on the main boards:

I've always wondered why coaches don't put young guys in positions to succeed, as a Bruins fan I'm fortunate that Cassidy loves to give his rookies great positions to play in, tonight Ryan Donato will play his first NHL game and he's going to be on PP1 with Marchand, Pastrnak, Krug, etc.

Same thing with tossing McAvoy on to the top pair for his very first minute of NHL action, he lets the kids run with it and doesn't just bench them or move them down the lineup if they have a poor game or two.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Seems like pendulum has swung the other way and hak will be safe for one more year.

worst possible outcome...

so expect it to happen..


YEA... another full season wasted going nowere...

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Im hoping the Flyers get in inspite of Hak.
I refuse to root for losses.

 

[Rebels57]

Im hoping the Flyers get in inspite of Hak.
I refuse to root for losses.

Im with you. Mainly for the core, who I love.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Im hoping the Flyers get in inspite of Hak.
I refuse to root for losses.

I can't root for losses, either. I could in 2015 and to some extent last season, but I can't now. I'm not that upset when we lose, and I wouldn't mind if we missed the playoffs this season, because it would give us at least a chance to at the very least shorten dummy's leash, but I'm too full of spite in general to ever want to lose.

 

[boxcar65]

I’ll follow Manning if he goes to the ECHL next year, but I’m first and foremost a Flyers fan. Been with them since 1971, so I’m not about to give up now.

 

[BillDineen]

Saw this post on the main boards:

I've always wondered why coaches don't put young guys in positions to succeed, as a Bruins fan I'm fortunate that Cassidy loves to give his rookies great positions to play in, tonight Ryan Donato will play his first NHL game and he's going to be on PP1 with Marchand, Pastrnak, Krug, etc.

Same thing with tossing McAvoy on to the top pair for his very first minute of NHL action, he lets the kids run with it and doesn't just bench them or move them down the lineup if they have a poor game or two.

Imagine just how much more enjoyable this season would have been with that mentality?

EDIT:

Three points for Donato. "Reliable vets" or skilled young players? Tough call.

 

[baudib1]

One of the key transitions in Flyers history happened in 1984-85 when the team moved on from 3 Hall of Famers (Clarke, Barber and Sittler) and Bob McCammon and hired Mike Keenan and brought up a ton of kids. The Sutter bros., Tocchet, Zezel and Derrick Smith were all rookies; Murray Craven was a 20-year-old they got from Detroit; they all played key roles. The next year, they added Eklund and Mellanby; the next, Hextall.

 

[Rebels57]

The problem is, Hextall saw what LA did leading up to 2012 and he is now convinced it is the only way to do it. This is exacerbated by having Hakstol, who is so afraid to lose his job that he wont trust the kids until they go through the ringer.

 

[baudib1]

I hate Hakstol, I think he and Berube are probably the two worst coaches this team has ever had. But I can't complain too much atm because the lineup is pretty close to optimal, it just took about 70 games too long to get here.

Next year he presumably won't have too many terrible veterans to screw around with; Filp will be gone and hopefully replaced by a kid. There'll be too much competition for Lehtera and Weise to play too much, I hope. That just leaves MacDonald, who doesn't even look too bad currently.

 

[Rebels57]

I hate Hakstol, I think he and Berube are probably the two worst coaches this team has ever had. But I can't complain too much atm because the lineup is pretty close to optimal, it just took about 70 games too long to get here.

Next year he presumably won't have too many terrible veterans to screw around with; Filp will be gone and hopefully replaced by a kid. There'll be too much competition for Lehtera and Weise to play too much, I hope. That just leaves MacDonald, who doesn't even look too bad currently.

Ehh, he's still bad.

 

[Harhis]

Ehh, he's still bad.

Standards for MacDonald not being bad are really low these days

 

[Limeyjim]

Hextall has done a good job when it comes to ridding the franchise from horrible contracts that Holmgren caused when he was the GM (Vinny L. Pronger Bryz). But hiring a college coach to assist with advancing the prospects has been hampered by the coaches decisions to rely too heavily on veterans. The veterans Hakstol rely's on have very limited abilities, so each time one of those veterans is on the ice making mistakes it takes ice time away from the youth that he's supposed to be elevating. Hakstol stands behind the bench like a Buckingham Palace guard, staring forward without uttering a bloody word. The assistant coaches are the one's chatting to the players, giving instructions etc. while Hakstol stands back saying nil. The last game (Washington Capitals), I didn't see Manning or Lehtera on the ice at all, and the team looked much better! They were able to move the puck from the defensive zone more easily, and the attack zone looked more balanced, without as many turn overs.
I also noticed that the players were being coached by Gord Murphy when it was getting close to the final minute. Did anyone else notice that?

 

[Curufinwe]

Standards for MacDonald not being bad are really low these days

The difference in his CF% with Hagg and with Sanheim is somewhat staggering, even with the small sample size of the latter.

45.22% vs 56.2%.

 

[deadhead]

Hagg replaced Manning, is he a good puck mover?
Lehtera was playing 10 minutes, replaced by Read who isn't exactly flying down the ice these days.
This is an example of "framing," seeing what you want to see, that minor changes were actually "major" moves.

Boston doesn't handle their players much different than Philly, Donato is older than Lindblom who was plugged into the second line and has stayed there over veterans like Raffl and Simmonds. Provorov was on the 1st D pair at 19, Patrick 2C at 19, Konecny promoted to the 1st line at 20. Hagg a regular shift on defense at 22. Guys like Laughton aren't given a lot of responsibility because they haven't earned it.

Difference is Boston has more 21-22 year old rookies ready this year, Philly will have them up the next three years.

The myth that Hextall won't promote, and Hakstol won't play, young prospects is just that.
Even with Sanheim, after a month in the AHL he's taking a regular shift and playing better than when he went down.

People here are just impatient, it's always better to be a little cautious with prospects, as Hextall has said, no one was ruined by spending a few more months in the AHL, but players have been crushed by being thrown into the NHL too soon.

I mean I'd love to see Myers flattening people in the NHL, but from what I've seen of his AHL games, he's probably better off staying there through their playoffs, he's far from a finished product.

 

[Harhis]

The difference in his CF% with Hagg and with Sanheim is somewhat staggering, even with the small sample size of the latter.

45.22% vs 56.2%.

I'm pretty confident it has nothing to do with MacDonald.

 

[FLYguy3911]

It’d probably be even higher if he handled the puck less.

 

[1865]

Hextall has done a good job when it comes to ridding the franchise from horrible contracts that Holmgren caused when he was the GM (Vinny L. Pronger Bryz). But hiring a college coach to assist with advancing the prospects has been hampered by the coaches decisions to rely too heavily on veterans. The veterans Hakstol rely's on have very limited abilities, so each time one of those veterans is on the ice making mistakes it takes ice time away from the youth that he's supposed to be elevating. Hakstol stands behind the bench like a Buckingham Palace guard, staring forward without uttering a bloody word. The assistant coaches are the one's chatting to the players, giving instructions etc. while Hakstol stands back saying nil. The last game (Washington Capitals), I didn't see Manning or Lehtera on the ice at all, and the team looked much better! They were able to move the puck from the defensive zone more easily, and the attack zone looked more balanced, without as many turn overs.
I also noticed that the players were being coached by Gord Murphy when it was getting close to the final minute. Did anyone else notice that?

It is somewhat ironic that the main area we went with Hak for is the thing he's struggling the most with. I wouldn't have expected a college coach to rely so heavily on the vets. I'd have expected him to throw the kids in, get the speed through the team and go for it. I don't know where he learned this dependence...

 

[Lindberg]

I'd like to see who you are talking about when you wrote "major" moves. I don't think I 've seen a single instance someone claimed that Read over Lethera was a major upgrade. Plugging Read over Lethera will help since he's just a better overall player. Minor improvements are still improvements even though you don't understand that.