Speculation: Ferland, Bennett and Lazar need new contracts (Ferland has filed for arb.)

[westvandal]

I think a perfect comparable would be Kassian's recent 1.9 x 3 signing.

 

[Volica]

1.8 x 3.
Book it.

 

[BigRangy]

Zach Hyman signed a 4x2.25 today. I think Ferland comes in somewhere between that and the Kassian deal. If he actually ends up going to arbitration I doubt he gets more than 1.5.

 

[MonyontheMoney]

How is it difficult for you to understand? Their career trajectories are almost identical. It's like you ar ebeing intentionally obtuse, because I know you are smarter than that

Are you seriously giving Ferland credit for Gaudreau and Monahan hitting their strides?

Gaudreau and Monahan had modest 4 game pointless streaks before Ferland joined the line, before that? 6 points in 4 games for Gaudreau and 12 points in 11 games/9 goals in 10 games for Monahan. Michael Stone and Matt Bartkowski also joined the team around the exact time as well.

You've latched onto a negative comparable, when there are probably dozens of comparables for the good and the bad outcomes. Which exactly why I couldn't care less about who his "career trajectory" is comparable too. No two players are identical, and you should know that.

I'll sound like a broken record here, but evaluate the tools not the production - or even worse some singular "career projection" comparison.

No I'm not giving sole credit to Ferland for making Gaudreau and Monahan better. But watching that line, it was as clear as day that Ferland helped those two players be better than what they had for the majority of the season. It's a lot more plausible than giving Stone or Matt ****ing Bartkowski any credit.

Plus, I wouldn't just ignore Ferland's personal problems early on. Like Snipetype said about Poirier, his hockey struggles and and personal struggles are likely not unrelated. That stuff almost certainly messed with Ferland's development. I mean, Ferland's body of work since sobering up isn't exactly comparable to Bouma anymore.

 

[Lunatik]

Plus, I wouldn't just ignore Ferland's personal problems early on. Like Snipetype said about Poirier, his hockey struggles and and personal struggles are likely not unrelated. That stuff almost certainly messed with Ferland's development. I mean, Ferland's body of work since sobering up isn't exactly comparable to Bouma anymore.

And this is the crux of it. Ever since it came out that he got clean, people have done nothing but overrate every little thing he does.

His best comparable is Zack Kassian. Think about that for a moment. Zack Kassian, a guy our fanbase has mocked relentlessly for ages is his best comparable. Yet, Ferland is the second ****ing coming of Christ

 

[Volica]

I just don't see how Bouma and Ferland are all that similar.

They are not.
Like, not one bit.

One was always destined to be a 4th line grinder with some leadership qualities, one was a deadly scorer and ultra tough kid throughout his development. Ferland is something Bouma could hope to be, but simply doesn't have the tools or capacity to be.

I also appreciate people completely disregarding his substance abuse problems. The kid's a beast when he didn't have that demon.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

Look at their professional careers until they get their "big" RFA contracts. They're practically identical. Ignoring that is just blatant stupidity

The scoring numbers are definitely extremely close, but (you're going to hate this part. lol) the possession stats are not.

You see a lot of flaws in Ferland that I personally disagree with, and I've never thought Bouma was particularly good. I do completely understand where you're coming from in terms of their career trajectories being extremely similar, but I don't think they're fundamentally the same level of player.

So I think Ferland on a 4 year, 10 million dollar contract is, at worst, market value (and likely good value).

 

[Lunatik]

The scoring numbers are definitely extremely close, but (you're going to hate this part. lol) the possession stats are not.

You see a lot of flaws in Ferland that I personally disagree with, and I've never thought Bouma was particularly good. I do completely understand where you're coming from in terms of their career trajectories being extremely similar, but I don't think they're fundamentally the same level of player.

So I think Ferland on a 4 year, 10 million dollar contract is, at worst, market value (and likely good value).

You are comparing possession stats between a Hartley system and a Gulutzan system, of course Ferland's are going to be better. Not to mention the entire team as a whole are significantly better in that regard now.

Ferland has more "skill" than Bouma. Bouma was better defensively and a better penalty killer. Both both are players that need to be physical to be effective.

My whole point is giving Ferland a Bouma type contract (never mind a longer deal with a higher AAV), is a significant risk. I'm not saying Ferland will regress, but people acting like it's not a possibility is absolutely foolish.

 

[MonyontheMoney]

And this is the crux of it. Ever since it came out that he got clean, people have done nothing but overrate every little thing he does.

Nice to see that the point went over you're head. Bouma and Ferland have different situations and skills, therefore using a career trajectory comparison to determine Ferland's worth is downright foolish.

His best comparable is Zack Kassian. Think about that for a moment. Zack Kassian, a guy our fanbase has mocked relentlessly for ages is his best comparable. Yet, Ferland is the second ****ing coming of Christ

You're getting closer. Though I still feel like that's largely a statistical comparison only. Ferland still probably has better offensive tools than Kassian.

I get that the production and what not will have a major influence in actually determining Ferland's worth. However, an accurate player evaluation is what will help determine if he will outperform said value, which I feel is quite likely.

 

[tmurfin]

I doubt Ferly makes it to arbitration, I don't think it would work out very well for him. Just another formality in the play book. 2.5x3 I'm guessing.

 

[DFF]

Ferly the Burly is great and all, but he had 25 points last year. I am not overly worried about his arbitration rights.

The Flames can bring up Alex Chaisson (24 pts) for comparison

 

[Lunatik]

Nice to see that the point went over you're head. Bouma and Ferland have different situations and skills, therefore using a career trajectory comparison to determine Ferland's worth is downright foolish.





You're getting closer. Though I still feel like that's largely a statistical comparison only. Ferland still probably has better offensive tools than Kassian.

I get that the production and what not will have a major influence in actually determining Ferland's worth. However, an accurate player evaluation is what will help determine if he will outperform said value, which I feel is quite likely.

Nothing is going over my head. I've pointed out the similarities and differences in their (Bouma/Ferland) skills and have done so several times in the past. As for "different situations", you don't know that, all it takes is Brouwer, Versteeg or hell pretty much anyone to have a better start than Ferland and suddenly Ferland is back in the bottom 6, just like what happened to Bouma.

And you are right it is a statistical comparison between Ferland and Kassian, because guess what? That what NHL contracts are based on, especially arbitration. Shocking, I know! You and others also keep spouting off about Ferland's "skill", but until he actually uses it for more than 8 games a season, it is completely irrelevant. Lots of extremely skilled players have been complete flops in the NHL, while less skilled players make it because of their work ethic and the other assets then bring.

 

[MonyontheMoney]

Nothing is going over my head. I've pointed out the similarities and differences in their (Bouma/Ferland) skills and have done so several times in the past. As for "different situations", you don't know that, all it takes is Brouwer, Versteeg or hell pretty much anyone to have a better start than Ferland and suddenly Ferland is back in the bottom 6, just like what happened to Bouma.

And you are right it is a statistical comparison between Ferland and Kassian, because guess what? That what NHL contracts are based on, especially arbitration. Shocking, I know!You and others also keep spouting off about Ferland's "skill", but until he actually uses it for more than 8 games a season, it is completely irrelevant. Lots of extremely skilled players have been complete flops in the NHL, while less skilled players make it because of their work ethic and the other assets then bring.

Exactly, what I just said.

However, I don't see how looking at his stats suggest he'll flop like Bouma, which is what this discussion is largely about - the likelihood Ferland outperforms or fails to outperform that contract. Which is something his stats or any of these comparisons will determine.

 

[Lunatik]

Exactly, what I just said.

However, I don't see how looking at his stats suggest he'll flop like Bouma, which is what this discussion is largely about - the likelihood Ferland outperforms or fails to outperform that contract. Which is something his stats or any of these comparisons will determine.

Seriously? This ****ing garbage again? Let me say it again, this time in really big letters so you don't miss it.

I NEVER ONCE SAID HE WOULD ****ING FLOP

Saying something is a risk, is not saying someone will flop. Seriously, if I wanted people to twist what I said, I'd get back together with my ex.

 

[MonyontheMoney]

Seriously? This ****ing garbage again? Let me say it again, this time in really big letters so you don't miss it.

I NEVER ONCE SAID HE WOULD ****ING FLOP

Saying something is a risk, is not saying someone will flop. Seriously, if I wanted people to twist what I said, I'd get back together with my ex.

It's not near as big of a risk that comparing Bouma to it would suggest.

 

[Lunatik]

It's not near as big of a risk that comparing Bouma to it would suggest.

Anytime you give a 25 year old a contract that size based on the success of 1 season, there is significant risk. Not sure why everyone is so blind to that fact, or so afraid to admit it.

 

[MonyontheMoney]

I'm sorry I refuse to call a contract of 2.5 at 3-4 years a high risk move for a player like Ferland.

 

[Mr Snrub]

If Ferland were to fall off, not saying he will, but if he were, a 2.5 million cap hit for three or four years will be tough for this team to work around with the contracts that will have to be signed over that stretch. It wouldn't be awful, but that's 2.5 million that we can't put towards Backlund, Brodie, Bennett (if he signs a 2-3 year bridge deal, as he likely will), Tkachuk, hell, even Hamonic.

I've brought this up before as well, but think about the sort of high-octane game Ferland plays. What if he gets injured and is never the same player, in the same manner as Bouma?

I'm not incredibly worried about the cap hit itself, just term. Also, the Gio contract will be an albatross contract within the next three years, so we really have to be judicious about paying people as little money as we can really get away with until then.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

If Ferland were to fall off, not saying he will, but if he were, a 2.5 million cap hit for three or four years will be tough for this team to work around with the contracts that will have to be signed over that stretch. It wouldn't be awful, but that's 2.5 million that we can't put towards Backlund, Brodie, Bennett (if he signs a 2-3 year bridge deal, as he likely will), Tkachuk, hell, even Hamonic.

I've brought this up before as well, but think about the sort of high-octane game Ferland plays. What if he gets injured and is never the same player, in the same manner as Bouma?

I'm not incredibly worried about the cap hit itself, just term. Also, the Gio contract will be an albatross contract within the next three years, so we really have to be judicious about paying people as little money as we can really get away with until then.

Well part of the issue with this comparison is that Bouma's badness was not due to being injured and "never the same again." He was always bad.

 

[Mr Snrub]

Well part of the issue with this comparison is that Bouma's badness was not due to being injured and "never the same again." He was always bad.

He was a markedly worse player after his injury.

 

[MonyontheMoney]

If Ferland were to fall off, not saying he will, but if he were, a 2.5 million cap hit for three or four years will be tough for this team to work around with the contracts that will have to be signed over that stretch. It wouldn't be awful, but that's 2.5 million that we can't put towards Backlund, Brodie, Bennett (if he signs a 2-3 year bridge deal, as he likely will), Tkachuk, hell, even Hamonic.

I've brought this up before as well, but think about the sort of high-octane game Ferland plays. What if he gets injured and is never the same player, in the same manner as Bouma?

I'm not incredibly worried about the cap hit itself, just term. Also, the Gio contract will be an albatross contract within the next three years, so we really have to be judicious about paying people as little money as we can really get away with until then.

All of those guys you mention save Backlund will need new deals in 2-3 years. A 3 year deal at 2.5 for Ferland would not have a significant impact on many of these deals.

Even if Ferland falls off (which he won't) that wouldn't be crippling, which is why I don't consider it high risk. I don't see any situation where that contract hurts us as much as some think it could.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

He was a markedly worse player after his injury.

eh, 2015-16 Bouma was practically the same player as 2013-14 Bouma. 2016-17 Bouma was practically the same player as 2015-16 Bouma.

Most of us were guilty of drinking the 2014-15 Bouma Kool-Aid, but that's a different story from Ferland, who was a fundamentally strong player that Hartley said had All-Star potential a year before last year. When your coach is giving you that kind of praise a year before a half-breakout year, the management should take that into consideration.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

He was a markedly worse player after his injury.

We're gonna have to agree to disagree on that one. He's always looked like a replacement level player to me.

 

[Mobiandi]

I love Ferland, but rewarding him with a 4 year contract after a good showing on the top line for 20-odd games would be a dicey move. I'd rather see him get bridged because you just know that the way we're up against the cap, he'd be vilified if he was underperforming on a 4 year deal.

 

[Lunatik]

I love Ferland, but rewarding him with a 4 year contract after a good showing on the top line for 20-odd games would be a dicey move. I'd rather see him get bridged because you just know that the way we're up against the cap, he'd be vilified if he was underperforming on a 4 year deal.

My understanding is you are not allowed to say this and if you do it means you hate Ferland and are a terrible person