Speculation: Ferland, Bennett and Lazar need new contracts (Ferland has filed for arb.)

[Flames Fanatic]

normally, i'd want to trade ferland now but if we trade him you just know they'll be desperate for size and that can't end well. At least he's a good player and I don't think his contributions are that much overrated, relative to other big guys

It's not like he has a huge amount of trade value either.

Anyways, give him the same contract as Fast and even if he stays a 3rd liner, that's something we can live with.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

I'd do 4 x 2.5 all day long.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

I'd do 4 x 2.5 all day long.

This is what I think he gets.

 

[Lunatik]

I think you have an actual subconscious bias against Ferland, because he's been significantly better than Bouma since he made the NHL. Bouma had a single good season that all of us analytics loving nerds predicted would be a fluke, and he got a contract 2x larger than he should have as a result.

Look at their professional careers until they get their "big" RFA contracts. They're practically identical. Ignoring that is just blatant stupidity

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Look at their professional careers until they get their "big" RFA contracts. They're practically identical. Ignoring that is just blatant stupidity

That's why you don't look solely at production. You look at the context of the situation and Ferland has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his career. Sonething Lance never really did.

The guy returned a first round pick at the deadline in his overage season in the WHL. That's very rare... then he led our penticton team with Bennett and Gaudreau in scoring.

He's big, fast, and can shoot the puck. I'll take big and fast on my team any day.

 

[Calculon]

Confirmation:

 

[BurnEmUp]

Michael Ferland has more skill and offensive ability in his little pinky finger than Bouma has in his whole body. Plus he dishes out bone crunching hits on a regular basis, as well as having the ability to whoop some ass when needed.

That said, he hasn't produced enough at the NHL level yet to even get a Bouma contract in my opinion. 3 x $1.5 is what I'm hoping for, but fear it'll end up being closer to $2 million.

Even if it gets to $2 million I don't think we will regret it though.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Another comparable:

Zach Hyman, 4 years, 2.25 million.

I think I'd be more worried about Hyman being the new Bouma than Ferland. Guy got 30 points because he played a crap ton of minutes with Matthews.

 

[MonyontheMoney]

I see no problems giving Ferland a 2.5 x 4 type deal.

 

[Lunatik]

That's why you don't look solely at production. You look at the context of the situation and Ferland has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his career. Sonething Lance never really did.

The guy returned a first round pick at the deadline in his overage season in the WHL. That's very rare... then he led our penticton team with Bennett and Gaudreau in scoring.

He's big, fast, and can shoot the puck. I'll take big and fast on my team any day.

Yeah ,let's add some context. In their big years Ferland had a hot two-thirds weeks, while Bouma actually had a good full season and out produced Ferland overall.

But yay WHL stats that Ferland hasn't gotten a sniff of as a pro

 

[Lunatik]

Michael Ferland has more skill and offensive ability in his little pinky finger than Bouma has in his whole body. Plus he dishes out bone crunching hits on a regular basis, as well as having the ability to whoop some ass when needed.

That said, he hasn't produced enough at the NHL level yet to even get a Bouma contract in my opinion. 3 x $1.5 is what I'm hoping for, but fear it'll end up being closer to $2 million.

Even if it gets to $2 million I don't think we will regret it though.

Yet hasn't accomplished a single thing as a Professional that Bouma hasn't. He's old enough you aren't paying him for potential anymore. He should be paid based on his body of work.

The difference between Bouma and Ferland so far I their careers is Bouma wasn't hyped the same way by the fans.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

I see no problems giving Ferland a 2.5 x 4 type deal.

I also have no issues with this.

It's high enough that it might be satisfactory for the player but low enough for the team (and fans) that it's not crippling if he doesn't maintain expectations.

 

[BurnEmUp]

Yet hasn't accomplished a single thing as a Professional that Bouma hasn't. He's old enough you aren't paying him for potential anymore. He should be paid based on his body of work.

The difference between Bouma and Ferland so far I their careers is Bouma wasn't hyped the same way by the fans.

Pretty much what I said in the 2nd half of my post.

The other difference between the two though, is that Ferland is just a way more talented player.

 

[Dertell]

In their big years Ferland had a hot two-thirds weeks, while Bouma actually had a good full season

I get nothing matters, but 2014-15 Bouma scored a whoopin' one more goal than 2016-17 Ferland in their first 50 games. With two more minutes per game.

 

[Lunatik]

Pretty much what I said in the 2nd half of my post.

The other difference between the two though, is that Ferland is just a way more talented player.

Talent doesn't mean anything when one of your issues is consistency and you disappear the way Ferland has so far in his career

Simply put, talent or not, Ferland has not earned more to date than the guy we just bought out for having a bad contract.

I'm not saying Ferland will regress, but suggesting giving him more dollars and more term than Bouma got, is playing with fire

 

[MonyontheMoney]

I don't think Ferland "disappears" anymore than other players of his general skill set and ability.

As I see it, the issue is that he set the bar so high in terms of physicality and being very noticeably impactful for a stretch in the 2014 playoffs. The reality is, not a single player in the league can play that way over an 82 game schedule.

 

[BurnEmUp]

Talent doesn't mean anything when one of your issues is consistency and you disappear the way Ferland has so far in his career

Simply put, talent or not, Ferland has not earned more to date than the guy we just bought out for having a bad contract.

I'm not saying Ferland will regress, but suggesting giving him more dollars and more term than Bouma got, is playing with fire

I have never once suggested giving Ferland more money or term than Bouma.

I'm saying comparing Ferland and Bouma just based on their NHL production and expecting Ferland to fizzle out because Bouma did is flawed. He's just way more talented than Bouma ever was, even if it hasn't yet translated to better NHL production.

 

[Lunatik]

I don't think Ferland "disappears" anymore than other players of his general skill set and ability.

As I see it, the issue is that he set the bar so high in terms of physicality and being very noticeably impactful for a stretch in the 2014 playoffs. The reality is, not a single player in the league can play that way over an 82 game schedule.

From Calc's Treliving quote

Challenge for Ferland is consistency;

The fact of the matter is the majority of his points were in a short period of time and he didn't produce anywhere near that well the rest of the year. He didn't disappear to the degree he has in the past, no doubt but he just isn't as good as people are hyping him up to be.

 

[Lunatik]

I have never once suggested giving Ferland more money or term than Bouma.

I'm saying comparing Ferland and Bouma just based on their NHL production and expecting Ferland to fizzle out because Bouma did is flawed. He's just way more talented than Bouma ever was, even if it hasn't yet translated to better NHL production.

Except I didn't suggest one ****ing time he would fizzle out. I was simply pointing out the obvious risks of such a contract. Which I clearly stated in the post you quoted

 

[MonyontheMoney]

From Calc's Treliving quote



The fact of the matter is the majority of his points were in a short period of time and he didn't produce anywhere near that well the rest of the year. He didn't disappear to the degree he has in the past, no doubt but he just isn't as good as people are hyping him up to be.

Again, I'd find it odd if the majority of players in Ferland's comparable skill and abilities didn't have consistency issues.

Just because Ferland was pointed to by our GM of having consistency issues, doesn't mean it's anymore notable than any other player making 2.5.

 

[BurnEmUp]

Except I didn't suggest one ****ing time he would fizzle out. I was simply pointing out the obvious risks of such a contract. Which I clearly stated in the post you quoted

Oh I see, my mistake then. You kept comparing Bouma and Ferland as if they were the same player, just because their NHL production has been similar to the same point in their careers. That's the only issue I have, because they are not the same player at all.

Other than that, I think we are in agreement. I just want a nice 3 year deal preferably with an AAV around $1.5 million...no more than $2 million.

 

[Lunatik]

Again, I'd find it odd if the majority of players in Ferland's comparable skill and abilities didn't have consistency issues.

Bouma didn't, not like Ferland. Until injuries derailed him Bouma was a beast night in and night out.

When I talk consistency, I'm talking mostly effort. But a hot stretch being your major source of production is far worse than those comparable players

 

[Lunatik]

Oh I see, my mistake then. You kept comparing Bouma and Ferland as if they were the same player, just because their NHL production has been similar to the same point in their careers. That's the only issue I have, because they are not the same player at all.

Other than that, I think we are in agreement. I just want a nice 3 year deal preferably with an AAV around $1.5 million...no more than $2 million.

My point is they have had almost identical professional careers to the point of their first bigger payday. So why would the team take the risk of giving out a comparable or bigger contract in what is essentially the same situation. It's nonsensical. Like you I've stated no more than $2 million and no more than 3 years. Even then you have to admit there is risk in such a deal because it's literally based of 1 season.

 

[MonyontheMoney]

Bouma didn't, not like Ferland. Until injuries derailed him Bouma was a beast night in and night out.

When I talk consistency, I'm talking mostly effort. But a hot stretch being your major source of production is far worse than those comparable players

I just don't see how Bouma and Ferland are all that similar. Bouma is a slower guy who has to lay his body on the line every night just to stay in the NHL, as th skill just isn't there. Ferland is a guy who doesn't necessarily show all these highly visible signs of effort (blocking shots, diving to get the puck out and so on) but skates at a high pace most all the time, and wins plenty of puck battles. The biggest difference though, is that Ferland has some tools that will allow him to produce at least the same number of points he did this year and likely more in a bigger offensive role. Bouma on the other hand, really didn't. I was guilty of buying into the Bouma career year, more out of a desperation this team had at the time for good players than truly believing he had the skills to replicate it. Ferland on the other hand, is almost a given to replicate up the ante, based on his skill set.

The biggest thing though, is that some people may argue that Ferland had a hot streak while playing on the top line. However, what also coincided with his move to 1RW? Mony and Johnny hitting their stride.

 

[Lunatik]

I just don't see how Bouma and Ferland are all that similar. Bouma is a slower guy who has to lay his body on the line every night just to stay in the NHL, as th skill just isn't there. Ferland is a guy who doesn't necessarily show all these highly visible signs of effort (blocking shots, diving to get the puck out and so on) but skates at a high pace most all the time, and wins plenty of puck battles. The biggest difference though, is that Ferland has some tools that will allow him to produce at least the same number of points he did this year and likely more in a bigger offensive role. Bouma on the other hand, really didn't. I was guilty of buying into the Bouma career year, more out of a desperation this team had at the time for good players than truly believing he had the skills to replicate it. Ferland on the other hand, is almost a given to replicate up the ante, based on his skill set.

The biggest thing though, is that some people may argue that Ferland had a hot streak while playing on the top line. However, what also coincided with his move to 1RW? Mony and Johnny hitting their stride.

How is it difficult for you to understand? Their career trajectories are almost identical. It's like you ar ebeing intentionally obtuse, because I know you are smarter than that

Are you seriously giving Ferland credit for Gaudreau and Monahan hitting their strides?

Gaudreau and Monahan had modest 4 game pointless streaks before Ferland joined the line, before that? 6 points in 4 games for Gaudreau and 12 points in 11 games/9 goals in 10 games for Monahan. Michael Stone and Matt Bartkowski also joined the team around the exact time as well.