Speculation: Ferland and his future with the Canes

[Lempo]

Sign him long-term now that he's feeling mortal and maybe prone to trade the July UFA money to security.

 

[MinJaBen]

Sign him long-term now that he's feeling mortal and maybe prone to trade the July UFA money to security.

As much as I liked Ruutu the guy and healthy player, I don't want a repeat of that. Given the apparent market for his services, trade him ASAP while his value is high. We have Nino now, we have Svech, and we have Gauthier in the AHL that are all big bodied power forwards. We really don't need Ferland for the risk. Resign Martinook for the sandpaper and move on.

Edit to add: We should stop the foolishness of demanding a top 6 roster player back for one of our RHD and just move Faulk for a 1st+ and Ferland for a 1st+ (assuming the market is as fertile as it looks) and go into the draft with three 1sts. We can use one plus extra to pull a cap casualty out of Tampa or Toronto at the draft (Miller, Johnson, Nylander, Kapanen, etc) and still have two first to keep building the system for next year. Plus, we can save the salary for one of them and maybe a UFA that looks good (Duchene, Stone, Bob, etc). Keep Dougie who has more term and Pesce who plays D better.

 

[spockBokk]

As much as I liked Ruutu the guy and healthy player, I don't want a repeat of that. Given the apparent market for his services, trade him ASAP while his value is high. We have Nino now, we have Svech, and we have Gauthier in the AHL that are all big bodied power forwards. We really don't need Ferland for the risk. Resign Martinook for the sandpaper and move on.

Edit to add: We should stop the foolishness of demanding a top 6 roster player back for one of our RHD and just move Faulk for a 1st+ and Ferland for a 1st+ (assuming the market is as fertile as it looks) and go into the draft with three 1sts. We can use one plus extra to pull a cap casualty out of Tampa or Toronto at the draft (Miller, Johnson, Nylander, Kapanen, etc) and still have two first to keep building the system for next year. Plus, we can save the salary for one of them and maybe a UFA that looks good (Duchene, Stone, Bob, etc). Keep Dougie who has more term and Pesce who plays D better.

Good post. Multiple 1sts on draft day would really give the team options at filling holes. I wonder though about selling the rebuilding “narrative” to the fan base again. Dundon has mentioned he’s impatient, and I bet he’s pushing for guys who can help now versus futures in any D for F trades.

My ideal deadline would be for the team to sell off Ferland to EDM for Poolparty and a pick or to PIT for a 1st. Then somehow turn Faulk into Kapanen. Outside of Ferland for a 1st, I don’t think the other 2 are realistic any more. I don’t think we make the playoffs this year, but for better or worse, I see Ferland as gone to the highest bidder in futures and either Hamilton or Pesce gone to the highest bidder in terms of young forward offered.

 

[Lempo]

As much as I liked Ruutu the guy and healthy player, I don't want a repeat of that. Given the apparent market for his services, trade him ASAP while his value is high. We have Nino now, we have Svech, and we have Gauthier in the AHL that are all big bodied power forwards. We really don't need Ferland for the risk. Resign Martinook for the sandpaper and move on.

Edit to add: We should stop the foolishness of demanding a top 6 roster player back for one of our RHD and just move Faulk for a 1st+ and Ferland for a 1st+ (assuming the market is as fertile as it looks) and go into the draft with three 1sts. We can use one plus extra to pull a cap casualty out of Tampa or Toronto at the draft (Miller, Johnson, Nylander, Kapanen, etc) and still have two first to keep building the system for next year. Plus, we can save the salary for one of them and maybe a UFA that looks good (Duchene, Stone, Bob, etc). Keep Dougie who has more term and Pesce who plays D better.

I would guess no one wants to take Nylander's contract in the Draft day out of principle.

(Assuming that the Signing Bonus is paid on July 1st, which it necessarily isn't but apparently can be agreed to be some other day. If Dubas managed to have it paid before the Draft on the other hand...)

 

[MinJaBen]

Good post. Multiple 1sts on draft day would really give the team options at filling holes. I wonder though about selling the rebuilding “narrative” to the fan base again. Dundon has mentioned he’s impatient, and I bet he’s pushing for guys who can help now versus futures in any D for F trades.

If he thinks this plan gets him no help for the next season, he is a moron and we are f***ed. If he thinks some trade at this point is going to get us in this year, he is a moron and we are f***ed. A guy like Miller, who won't be available until this summer, is better than any guy Faulk will bring back now and couldn't be obtained for Faulk in the first place.

My ideal deadline would be for the team to sell off Ferland to EDM for Poolparty and a pick or to PIT for a 1st. Then somehow turn Faulk into Kapanen. Outside of Ferland for a 1st, I don’t think the other 2 are realistic any more. I don’t think we make the playoffs this year, but for better or worse, I see Ferland as gone to the highest bidder in futures and either Hamilton or Pesce gone to the highest bidder in terms of young forward offered.

I'd rather the Cup winner's 1st than Puljujarvi. He's bust-o-matic at this point. Dubas isn't trading any good forwards from the roster before this summer. I don't know who he thinks he will get on D with term at the deadline for futures, but he's all but said that is his plan yesterday, so hoping Faulk gets that done is a pipe dream. Give me the futures for both Ferland and Faulk and move on to planning the offseason at this point. Hope for ping pong balls to bounce our way and let the guys in Charlotte continue their development and winning ways.

 

[AD Skinner]

3 firsts is about as quick a rebuild as you can do though

 

[My Special Purpose]

The thing about first-round picks is that they're very liquid assets. Everybody wants them, and everybody can fit them under the cap. If we flip both Faulk and Ferland for firsts, all of a sudden, we've got all kinds of currency to make deals with anybody we want. It doesn't have to be a slow rebuild. We can flip the firsts very easily. I'm sure Ottawa would love to get back into the first round. Tampa Bay will always take picks.

 

[SvechneJerk]

3 firsts is about as quick a rebuild as you can do though

Couldn't it potentially be 4 - 1sts, along with some other assets gained? (our's, Ferland, Faulk, Staal) That is a lot of trade capital.

Could Schenn be pried away from St. Louis?

 

[MinJaBen]

As much as I'd like to for both the team and him, I think the chances of Staal getting traded to Pittsburgh or any other place are slim to none. The reality is that we will be fortunate to pick up two more 1sts as they are rarely available...even at the deadline.

 

[DougieSmash]

The question about Schenn is at which position he's better - LW or C?

 

[Chrispy]

I would guess no one wants to take Nylander's contract in the Draft day out of principle.

(Assuming that the Signing Bonus is paid on July 1st, which it necessarily isn't but apparently can be agreed to be some other day. If Dubas managed to have it paid before the Draft on the other hand...)

If Nylander's 2019-20 bonus is paid before the draft, wouldn't it be a 2018-19 bonus?

To qualify for 2019-20 as it does it has to be sometime between July 1 2019 and June 30 2020 right?

I'd be more shocked to see someone trade for Nylander before July 1 than I was at the ROR trade. STL paid $7.5M in bonus to acquire ROR before July 1; Nylander will cost $8.3M in signing bonus.

 

[Lempo]

If Nylander's 2019-20 bonus is paid before the draft, wouldn't it be a 2018-19 bonus?

To qualify for 2019-20 as it does it has to be sometime between July 1 2019 and June 30 2020 right?

I'd be more shocked to see someone trade for Nylander before July 1 than I was at the ROR trade. STL paid $7.5M in bonus to acquire ROR before July 1; Nylander will cost $8.3M in signing bonus.

The thing is I'm not sure. Big Daddy Cane educated me with this post a while back:

I added in the Leafs' portion of Kessel's bonus (15% of $5 mil.)

Signing bonuses can be paid before or after July 1. See Bobby Ryan:

Ryan had $2M bonus for both the ending season and the following season so it's inconclusive on the post alone, but Garrioch talking of his next season Base Salary would suggest this is the next season Signing Bonus. It seems like very bad finance management if Bobby left the 2017-18 Signing Bonus to be paid in May 2018.

 

[Lempo]

It may be that as long as the Signing Bonuses heed to the CBA Variability Rules, it doesn't matter if the Bonus actually gets paid in the "correct" League year to which it is "stated" (the ELCs maybe being an exception because of the strict rules on Salary).

50.7 Variability Rules for Multi-Year SPCs.

(a) For all "Front-Loaded SPCs" (as defined below), the difference between the stated
Player Salary and Bonuses in any immediately adjacent League Years of that SPC cannot exceed
thirty-five (35) percent of the stated Player Salary and Bonuses of the first League Year of such
Front-Loaded SPC. Additionally, under no circumstances may the stated Player Salary and
Bonuses in any League Year of a Front-Loaded SPC be less than fifty (50) percent of the highest
stated Player Salary and Bonuses in a League Year of that same Front-Loaded SPC.

(i) To determine whether an SPC is a Front-Loaded SPC:

(A) Take the total number of League Years in the SPC and divide by
two (2) ("First-Half Term");

(B) Add the amounts of all stated Player Salary and Bonuses in the
First-Half Term. If the SPC has an odd number of League Years,
allocate to the first half of the SPC one-half of the stated Player
Salary and Bonuses paid to the Player in the middle League Year
of such SPC (e.g., the fourth year of a seven-year SPC) ("First-
Half Stated Player Salary and Bonuses");

(C) Divide the First-Half Stated Player Salary and Bonuses by the
First-Half Term. The resulting amount shall be the "First-Half
Averaged Amount";

(D) Calculate the Averaged Amount of the SPC in a manner consistent
with Section 50.5(d)(ii);

(E) If the First-Half Averaged Amount is greater than the Averaged
Amount for the entire term of the SPC, such SPC is a "Front-
Loaded SPC" and must comply with Section 50.7(a). Any SPC
other than a Front-Loaded SPC must comply with Section 50.7(b)
rather than Section 50.7(a).

(b) "The 100 Percent Rule" for Multi-Year SPCs. For any SPC that is not a Front-
Loaded SPC, the difference between the stated Player Salary and Bonuses in the first two League
Years of an SPC cannot exceed the amount of the lower of the two League Years. Thereafter, in
all subsequent League Years of the SPC, (i) any increase in Player Salary and Bonuses from one
League Year to another may not exceed the amount of the lower of the first two League Years of
the SPC (or, if such amounts are the same, that same amount); and (ii) any decrease in Player
Salary and Bonuses from one League Year to another may not exceed fifty (50) percent of the
Player Salary and Bonuses of the lower of the first two League Years of the SPC (or, if such
amounts are the same, 50 percent of that same amount).

There may be stuff in the non-public NHL by-laws about the allowed paying dates.

I won't do the maths, but as an educated guess I'd guess that TML gamed the first season salary of Nylander's contract to fit right into these stipulations of 35 % difference and whatnot.

CBA 10.3 on Offer Sheets says that:

(e) For the purposes of this Article, the Principal Terms of an Offer Sheet are limited
to the term, Paragraph 1 Salary and Signing Bonus and Reporting Bonus the New Club offers to
the Restricted Free Agent (currently and/or as Deferred Compensation in specified installments
on specified dates) in consideration for his services as a hockey Player under the SPC.

(f) All Principal Terms contained in an Offer Sheet shall be fixed and readily
determinable amounts of cash, which shall not be subject to any conditions or contingencies
whatsoever, except as to the date on which payment is to be made.

As the SPC Paragraph 1 has it on the paydays of the Base Salary that:

Payment of such Paragraph 1 Salary shall be in consecutive semi-monthly installments on the
15th and 30th day of each month following the commencement of the NHL Regular Season or
following the dates of reporting, whichever is later",

it looks like 10.3 (f) is specifically all about Signing Bonus payment dates, and them being allowed to have conditions instead of fixed dates.

So maybe Ryan's contract says that "the Signing Bonus for the following season is to be paid on the 15th day of the month following the Club's elimination or not qualifying to the Stanley Cup Play-Offs" or something like that.

 

[NotOpie]

Don't forget that Faulk now has a bit of "say so" as to where he's going. He's got a modified NTC where he submits a 15 team trade list to the Canes. Also, his actual salary is $6 million, so some of the more budget conscious teams would likely hesitate.

 

[raynman]

Don't forget that Faulk now has a bit of "say so" as to where he's going. He's got a modified NTC where he submits a 15 team trade list to the Canes. Also, his actual salary is $6 million, so some of the more budget conscious teams would likely hesitate.

I could see TVR flipped at the deadline and a potential Faulk deal not completed until draft weekend because of that.

 

[Vagrant]

dundon isn't a seller. for better or likely worse, he's going to ride this thing out until it's mathematically impossible instead of improbable. when ferland moves, it's going to be a hockey trade. i don't see how anyone could sell him otherwise. everyone talks about how impatient he seems about making the playoffs. that doesn't scream "we're trading ferland for a first round pick" to me.

 

[MinJaBen]

dundon isn't a seller. for better or likely worse, he's going to ride this thing out until it's mathematically impossible instead of improbable. when ferland moves, it's going to be a hockey trade. i don't see how anyone could sell him otherwise. everyone talks about how impatient he seems about making the playoffs. that doesn't scream "we're trading ferland for a first round pick" to me.

I hope the “hockey people” in the room tell him he is a moron.

 

[raynman]

I hope the “hockey people” in the room tell him he is a moron.

Maybe that’s why Francis isn’t with the team anymore haha

 

[Vagrant]

I hope the “hockey people” in the room tell him he is a moron.

the hockey people mostly conform to the opinion of the billionaire, else they not be hockey people long

 

[NotOpie]

the hockey people mostly conform to the opinion of the billionaire, else they not be hockey people long

....or more accurately, they be somebody else's hockey people...

 

[Vagrant]

....or more accurately, they be somebody else's hockey people...

it would be great to believe the hockey world is full of mavericks with convictions more important than their mortgages, but many years of subordination have dulled my sensibilities.

 

[Lempo]

the hockey people mostly conform to the opinion of the billionaire, else they not be hockey people long

What is "KHL", Alex.

 

[NotOpie]

it would be great to believe the hockey world is full of mavericks with convictions more important than their mortgages, but many years of subordination have dulled my sensibilities.

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