Speculation: Expansion draft

[jkutswings]

A player nearing the end of his career, with a previous history of back problems, and a recent history of running out of gas during the season...is supposed to play through the rest of this year, plus 4 more, without the risk of LTIR? Mkay.

 

[Bench]

After this year, his caphit essentially becomes irrelevant. Players who go a full season without playing any games can be added to IR before the season actually starts effectively eliminating the salary from the cap. Between that and the off-season 10% rule that contract will hardly affect the Red Wings moving forward.

Yeah, that's fine. Not my point at all, though. Maybe the league should be proactive in allowing players with brain damage to feel like they can fully retire than have to prove they are still having symptoms and hang their team on the hook during the off-season. We have teams trading cap hits of players with brain damage. That doesn't feel silly? It does to me.

Is there anyone that thinks this is the best system they can come up with? Concussion issues are only going to grow with increased awareness, diagnosis, and subsequent treatments (which is likely going to strongly advice not rattling your brain anymore).

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

The excessive continuity over much of the last decade is what got them into this mess.

I want 2-3 years of them being as awful as possible, preferably without trading any players that have a shot at being part of the next core. Justin Abdelkader is definitely not in that category, and his style of play tends to age like milk. No thanks.

A guy like DeKeyser I could understand. Even if he's not playing well, a defenseman who (supposedly) is more positional than physical should have a fairly long shelf life. But middle 6 checking forwards are more chewing gum than cherishable.

No. What got them into this mess was their first round picks that are supposed to be their centerpiece players for about six or seven years all turned out to to be useless. If Smith, Kindl, McCollum, and Sheahan equate to anything or the Wings sign a Hal Gill or a Wisniewski (yes I know he didn't want to)
instead of trading that first for Quincey, the Wings magically become much better. The continuity and bringing back old faces isn't the problem. It's that they were either anemic or unlucky on early draft picks. Hell take Ryan O'Reilly instead of Ferraro and you're not in a position where you feel you have to draft the safe option in Sheahan.

 

[Frk It]

No. What got them into this mess was their first round picks that are supposed to be their centerpiece players for about six or seven years all turned out to to be useless. If Smith, Kindl, McCollum, and Sheahan equate to anything or the Wings sign a Hal Gill or a Wisniewski (yes I know he didn't want to)
instead of trading that first for Quincey, the Wings magically become much better. The continuity and bringing back old faces isn't the problem. It's that they were either anemic or unlucky on early draft picks. Hell take Ryan O'Reilly instead of Ferraro and you're not in a position where you feel you have to draft the safe option in Sheahan.

Players taken in the 20-30 range usually become 3rd liners or bottom pairing guys... On average.

If all those guys hit that we wouldn't be much better off. Really weren't even off by much of what was expected where they were taken, except McCollum.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Players taken in the 20-30 range usually become 3rd liners or bottom pairing guys... On average.

If all those guys hit that we wouldn't be much better off. Really weren't even off by much of what was expected where they were taken, except McCollum.

At a certain point, I throw averages out the window. I don't care if a #20 OA "is a success if he's a third liner". They need impact players.

And their failures kind of built on themselves. If they hit on a 3C the year before, maybe they make the Kuznetsov pick risking that he doesn't come over and they get a much more talented player than Sheahan. If Kindl turns out to be an honest to goodness #5D, maybe they don't deal their 2012 1st for Quincey because they wouldn't have needed a minute eater in their playoff run.

As it stands, they struck out so they felt the need to make safe picks.

Hell, if in 2013 they had another 3C or two, they don't move Jarnkrok + 2nd for Legwand to shore up their decimate C core.

So, even if you assume the upper end of a "hit" on any of those 1st rounders for seven years was a 3C or a bottom pairing guy, the Wings would have been better by virtue of having flexibility to make more moves and potentially take more risks with those moves.

 

[Sparty]

How long until we get to the point where we decide to protect Coreau and hope that Vegas wants either of the other guys?

 

[19 for president]

Coreau is big, and is riding the 1st legit call up rush right now, but nothing he does gives me the confidence that he is more than a backup goalie at the NHL level. Yeah Mrazek sucks right now, but the guy is still 3 months younger than Coureau and has a much better pedigree overall. I'm not giving up on Petr after one lousy season, with the worst defense we've had in probably 30 years.

 

[Bench]

How long until we get to the point where we decide to protect Coreau and hope that Vegas wants either of the other guys?

No reason to hope Mrazek gets taken. He's only sitting at a $4 million cap hit for 1 more year. If you're that hard up to move him for cap space while keeping Howard, you could sell him for peanuts (assuming he didn't bounce back) and still find a buyer given his age, remaining term, and controlled RFA status.

Mrazek's next contract won't be the monster goalie deal we feared. He played himself out of it this year.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

How long until we get to the point where we decide to protect Coreau and hope that Vegas wants either of the other guys?

Never, but thanks for the laugh.

 

[Reddwit]

He could go on LTIR at any point if he wanted. Probably true the last 3 years or so, actually.

Why would he want to? The bigger risk, IMO, is him essentially being decrepit and still wanting to play most nights at the age of 38 or something when he's skating like Jason Allison and producing like Sheahan.

As for the earlier suggestion that Kronwall, Franzen, and Zetterberg will be on LTIR "each season," well that's just melodrama. Kronwall only has two years left on his deal after this one. Realistically, he's on the active roster next season and if he ultimately gets LTIRetired at a point where we're actually competing, then he can be Datsyuk'd.

 

[Reddwit]

No reason to hope Mrazek gets taken. He's only sitting at a $4 million cap hit for 1 more year. If you're that hard up to move him for cap space while keeping Howard, you could sell him for peanuts (assuming he didn't bounce back) and still find a buyer given his age, remaining term, and controlled RFA status.

Mrazek's next contract won't be the monster goalie deal we feared. He played himself out of it this year.

Goalies are way too unpredictable to say that.

That said, you don't give up on Mrazek already. That's absurd.

 

[jkutswings]

Goalies are way too unpredictable to say that.

That said, you don't give up on Mrazek already. That's absurd.

He never said to give up on him. Just that his current level of play means that his next contract won't break the bank.

 

[jkutswings]

At a certain point, I throw averages out the window. I don't care if a #20 OA "is a success if he's a third liner". They need impact players.

And their failures kind of built on themselves. If they hit on a 3C the year before, maybe they make the Kuznetsov pick risking that he doesn't come over and they get a much more talented player than Sheahan. If Kindl turns out to be an honest to goodness #5D, maybe they don't deal their 2012 1st for Quincey because they wouldn't have needed a minute eater in their playoff run.

As it stands, they struck out so they felt the need to make safe picks.

Hell, if in 2013 they had another 3C or two, they don't move Jarnkrok + 2nd for Legwand to shore up their decimate C core.

So, even if you assume the upper end of a "hit" on any of those 1st rounders for seven years was a 3C or a bottom pairing guy, the Wings would have been better by virtue of having flexibility to make more moves and potentially take more risks with those moves.

Statistically, if everything panned out like you described, Detroit would probably be a 5th or 6th seed, and have yet another 1st or 2nd round loss to look forward to. Nothanks.

And that's not even playing the 'what if game'. Maybe with those added depth players, they don't end up drafting Larkin. Or Mantha. Or AA.

But the point is that it's HIGHLY unlikely that they'd have any more high-end players than they do currently, which is what a real contender is based on.

 

[Reddwit]

He never said to give up on him. Just that his current level of play means that his next contract won't break the bank.

Thats not what I meant. Goalies are bipolar athletes. Mrazek could very well have a Vezina-worthy season next year and thus could still land a contract with a back-breaking cap hit.

 

[Bench]

Thats not what I meant. Goalies are bipolar athletes. Mrazek could very well have a Vezina-worthy season next year and thus could still land a contract with a back-breaking cap hit.

Most likely Mrazek continues his tank season this year then bounces back next year with a better season, and his following contract is going to be pretty reasonable. Because of his season this year, the only way he salvages his next contract is with a Vezina performance like you said. We have never seen him play that good yet, so I'm not banking on him suddenly doing it.

So sure, if he finishes as the #1 goalie next year behind the Wings blueline, holy crap pay the man. But yeah... his stats won't be that good. He's going to have to settle.

 

[Reddwit]

Most likely Mrazek continues his tank season this year then bounces back next year with a better season, and his following contract is going to be pretty reasonable. Because of his season this year, the only way he salvages his next contract is with a Vezina performance like you said. We have never seen him play that good yet, so I'm not banking on him suddenly doing it.

So sure, if he finishes as the #1 goalie next year behind the Wings blueline, holy crap pay the man. But yeah... his stats won't be that good. He's going to have to settle.

Mrazek was playing Vezina-level hockey for the first half of last season. And he bombed out in the second part of last season yet still got $4M. A great year from Mrazek and he can get $6M. That's a tough pill to swallow in my book.

 

[Kardi]

I'm surprised at how fast Mrazek has dropped into the dog house. Could he even be traded for some assets?

 

[FireBird71]

I'm surprised at how fast Mrazek has dropped into the dog house. Could he even be traded for some assets?

If Howard could be relied on to stay healthy it wouldn't hurt to try

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

If Howard could be relied on to stay healthy it wouldn't hurt to try

How many years do you think Howard has left in the NHL? Even if Mrazek never regains his form from last year, it is far more logical to go into the rebuild with Mrazek than Howard, especially when you consider the other goalies we have in the system.

Goalies go off form from time to time (unless your name is Cary Price). It just comes with the territory. People are making far too much of this.

 

[ginnungagap]

How long until we get to the point where we decide to protect Coreau and hope that Vegas wants either of the other guys?

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/nhl/red-wings/2017/01/21/detroit-red-wings-petr-mrazek/96882110/

Although Mrazek has accomplished enough and is young enough that there's no way he'd make it to the expansion draft if Holland does decide to go with Coreau and Howard.

I'd bet that a team like Philly would potentially even hand over a pretty nice package for Mrazek, especially if a corresponding goalie/cap hit (Mason) for the rest of this year came back Detroit's way. The Islanders? Some of the value might depend on what teams think of Fleury and where he'd agree to go- but Fleury definitely wouldn't be heading to the Flyers.

 

[Reddwit]

So who do we think actually gets exposed and selected?

At this point, if I were Holland, I'd design my keeper picks to leave exposed as many bad contracts as possible, even if that means protecting someone like Marchenko rather than protecting Ericsson, Dekeyser (yes, Dekeyser) and Kronwall.

With respect to Dekeyser, I think you cross your fingers that he gets taken. There are plenty of defenseman available who are as good as Dekeyser and yet don't cost $5M a year. He can be replaced in essentially every free agent class, for what he brings.

I also would leave Abdelkader exposed, but not Helm. If Helm and Abdelkader are exposed, I think Helm gets taken, and as bad as he contract is, its much better than Abby's and he's arguably the more productive player long-term.

Personally, I think if you expose Abby, he's the one that gets taken. There will likely be better goalies available than Howard (or Mrazek), and there will be more skill available from other teams with actual skilled depth that I think Vegas might look at Abdelkader as a guy that can fulfill their gritty leadership role while giving them organizational continuity with his contract.

On that note, if the Wings have any intention of getting Vegas to take a big contract, they have to either trade Vanek or sign him before the expansion draft (or whenever the deadline for this caveat is). Vegas can sign a UFA from X team and use that to fulfill their quota for taking a player from X team. That would make Vanek Vegas' #1 choice from Detroit, IMO.

 

[Winger98]

I think you're undervaluing Dekeyser a bit. If Holland is looking at exposing him at the draft, he needs to make him available at the deadline and get something back for him.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

So who do we think actually gets exposed and selected?

At this point, if I were Holland, I'd design my keeper picks to leave exposed as many bad contracts as possible, even if that means protecting someone like Marchenko rather than protecting Ericsson, Dekeyser (yes, Dekeyser) and Kronwall.

With respect to Dekeyser, I think you cross your fingers that he gets taken. There are plenty of defenseman available who are as good as Dekeyser and yet don't cost $5M a year. He can be replaced in essentially every free agent class, for what he brings.

I also would leave Abdelkader exposed, but not Helm. If Helm and Abdelkader are exposed, I think Helm gets taken, and as bad as he contract is, its much better than Abby's and he's arguably the more productive player long-term.

Personally, I think if you expose Abby, he's the one that gets taken. There will likely be better goalies available than Howard (or Mrazek), and there will be more skill available from other teams with actual skilled depth that I think Vegas might look at Abdelkader as a guy that can fulfill their gritty leadership role while giving them organizational continuity with his contract.

On that note, if the Wings have any intention of getting Vegas to take a big contract, they have to either trade Vanek or sign him before the expansion draft (or whenever the deadline for this caveat is). Vegas can sign a UFA from X team and use that to fulfill their quota for taking a player from X team. That would make Vanek Vegas' #1 choice from Detroit, IMO.

He has to leave Ericsson, helm, Abby and Howard exposed

Only way I leave DD exposed is if we somehow manage to trade for and sign in principle sgatrenkirk and alzner

 

[Frk It]

I think you're undervaluing Dekeyser a bit. If Holland is looking at exposing him at the draft, he needs to make him available at the deadline and get something back for him.

What is someone going to pay for a guy who is -13, on pace for 11 pts, and makes 5 million a year?

 

[Pavels Dog]

What is someone going to pay for a guy who is -13, on pace for 11 pts, and makes 5 million a year?

NHL GMs generally understand that players in big roles on awful teams can look a lot worse than the same player in a secondary role on a good team. In Dekeyser's case, there's even proof of that.