Speculation: Expansion draft

[Frk It]

For those of us worried about flipping him for Trouba like it was some kind of lateral move, well there is some egg on the face. Our D-core would be better in that kind of swap even while damaging the wing to give up better assets. Oh well, I don't expect DK to be moved, but nobody should be worried if he does, he is a mediocre 2nd pairing D-man in my opinion.

And Fowler. I'm right there with you.

 

[TatarTangle]

If the wings are committing to retooling or rebuilding I don't think it makes sense to consider trading Mrazek. There is no reason we can't wait it out and see. He is still quite young by goalie standards and playing in front of a horrendous D.

I would argue his struggles are mental and lack of discipline in the crease, not so much the horrendous D. The defense is terrible but Howard has played in front of the same defense, and with far less goal support, and has numbers that completely blow Mrazek's out of the atmosphere.

Mrazek's played himself into the third spot on the depth chart, nobobdy is gonna give Detroit anything for him so I agree it doesn't make sense to trade him. Appears he is insecure about someone challenging him for the starting spot, or isn't comfortable with someone else being better than him, so you just hope after Vegas takes Howard away Mrazek rebounds big time and plays well again

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I would argue his struggles are mental and lack of discipline in the crease, not so much the horrendous D. The defense is terrible but Howard has played in front of the same defense, and with far less goal support, and has numbers that completely blow Mrazek's out of the atmosphere.

Mrazek's played himself into the third spot on the depth chart, nobobdy is gonna give Detroit anything for him so I agree it doesn't make sense to trade him. Appears he is insecure about someone challenging him for the starting spot, or isn't comfortable with someone else being better than him, so you just hope after Vegas takes Howard away Mrazek rebounds big time and plays well again

Vegas isn't taking Howard

 

[TatarTangle]

Vegas isn't taking Howard

Gotta imagine it's either him or MAF

 

[Heaton]

Gotta imagine it's either him or MAF

Maybe, but they could also be a little bit more cost effective, guys like Scott Darling will be available as a UFA is Chicago doesn't re-sign him and LV could grab a cheaper goalie in the expansion draft and sign Scott Darling.

They could also hope that Bishop is available during UFA as well if they like him better than MAF or Howard.

But a few teams need goalies, so they may just go the easy route and take a #1 in the expansion draft.

 

[HockeyinHD]

7 forwards: Zetterberg, Nielsen, Nyquist, Abdelkader, Helm, Larkin, Mantha. Glendening and Sheahan are the two forwards who played 40+ the team exposes. Maybe the team flips Z and Glendening if they are being cute. I doubt it.

Edit: Hell, Larkin's exempt. That makes it even easier. Issn't AA exempt too? Tough to tell. If not, protect him instead of larkin.

3 dmen: Green, DK, and either Marchenko or Sproul. Kronwall and E are the exposed players.

Those two are super easy. I have no idea what the team can/will/should do as far as the goalies go after the year Mrazek has put up. I guess protect him since he is both cheaper and up a year sooner, but there aren't a lot of superior choices.

 

[HockeyinHD]

Maybe, but they could also be a little bit more cost effective,

They still have to at least spend to the cap floor, right? That's going to be harder than you'd think.

 

[Bench]

They still have to at least spend to the cap floor, right? That's going to be harder than you'd think.

Is it? They could sign any number of UFAs to expensive but short contracts. They could also take on cap hits of productive but overpriced players. Or just simply overpriced but shorter deals. It's really easy to take on cash. Ask the Red Wings how easy it is every summer to max out the credit card. Somehow the Wings find a way every year.

Adding salary is probably the easiest thing to do in this league. Now shedding it, there's a magic trick.

 

[jkutswings]

Is it? They could sign any number of UFAs to expensive but short contracts. They could also take on cap hits of productive but overpriced players. Or just simply overpriced but shorter deals. It's really easy to take on cash. Ask the Red Wings how easy it is every summer to max out the credit card. Somehow the Wings find a way every year.

Adding salary is probably the easiest thing to do in this league. Now shedding it, there's a magic trick.

https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-expansion-draft-rules/c-281010592


"The Las Vegas franchise must select players with an aggregate Expansion Draft value that is between 60-100% of the prior season's upper limit for the salary cap."

So yes, they can further add players as they see fit (with whatever bloated deals they like), but they have to get at least 60% of the cap limit via expansion picks.

So leave Abby and Helm unprotected. Their contracts are plenty bloated.

 

[Bench]

Alright, let's see if we can math this out. So 60% via expansion. The current limit is $73 million. This means they only need to add $43.8 million from expansion players.

Since they are drafting 30 players, that's an average of $1.46 million per player. That's a pretty easy target to hit, right? Particularly when you're going to see all kinds of juicy contracts left exposed. Just adding one $6 million dollar player is nearly 14% of the required budget.

 

[Heaton]

They still have to at least spend to the cap floor, right? That's going to be harder than you'd think.

Arizona doesn't seem to have any issues, they could take Franzen's salary or Clarkson's salary or any other dead weight pretty easily.

 

[Bench]

Arizona doesn't seem to have any issues, they could take Franzen's salary or Clarkson's salary or any other dead weight pretty easily.

Let's ignore the UFAs and trades for now. Even if we're just talking about anticipated expansion selections. Let's spitball a possible lineup and see how it shakes out. I pulled this list from some article, it seems reasonable enough. Obviously it's all guesswork, but I think this is a fairly decent cross-section of the types of players that will be exposed. Let's not get hung up on individual choices like Murray or anything.

Forwards

Rick Nash (7.8)—Tyler Bozak (4.2) —Jakob Silfverberg (3.75) = 15.75
Benoit Pouliot (4.0) —Darren Helm (3.85) —Calle Jarnkrok (2.0) = 9.85
Michael Raffl (2.35) —Vladislav Namestnikov (1.94) —Jimmy Hayes (2.3) = 6.60
Brad Richardson (2.08) —Adam Lowry (1.13) —Lee Stempniak (2.5) = 5.71

Starting forwards alone already total nearly $38 million. But let's continue.

Spares: Brett Ritchie (0.88) , Hunter Shinkaruk (1.08) , Brendan Gaunce (1.03) and Charles Hudon (0.73) = 3.72

Forward totals = $41.63 million


Defencemen

Calvin de Haan (1.97) —David Savard (4.25)
Alec Martinez (4.0) —Mark Pysyk (1.13)
Paul Martin (4.85) —Mathew Dumba (2.55)

Starting defenders = $18.75 million.

Spares: Marc Methot (4.9) , Ben Lovejoy (2.67), Nikita Zadorov (1.74) and Ville Pokka (1.78) = $11.09

Defender totals = $29.84 million.


Goaltenders

Matt Murray (3.75)
Philipp Grubauer (0.75)

Goaltenders total = $4.5 million.

Team Total = $75.6 million.

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Yeah, it's going to be a real struggle to hit $44 million. Unless I'm completely misunderstanding the rules (always possible, I get older by the year), it seems like they'll struggle NOT to hit the 60% required.

 

[HockeyinHD]

it seems like they'll struggle NOT to hit the 60% required.

Didn't know they only had to get to 60% of the floor, which seems crazy low, but alas. That kicks a huge hole in the value of Detroit's high cap low cash contracts... to Vegas, anyway.

The only real strategy here then is to try and game the system to force Vegas to take a bad contract by exposing only bad ones.

Z, Nielsen, Abby, Helm, Mantha, Glen, AA. Expose Nyquist, Sheahan.
Green, DK, one depth guy. Expose, Kronwall and E.
Mrazek. Expose Howard and Coreau.

Vegas has to take one guy from each team IIRC, so unless they'd just take Coreau Detroit's guaranteed to dump one enh contract.

 

[Heaton]

Didn't know they only had to get to 60% of the floor, which seems crazy low, but alas. That kicks a huge hole in the value of Detroit's high cap low cash contracts... to Vegas, anyway.

The only real strategy here then is to try and game the system to force Vegas to take a bad contract by exposing only bad ones.

Z, Nielsen, Abby, Helm, Mantha, Glen, AA. Expose Nyquist, Sheahan.
Green, DK, one depth guy. Expose, Kronwall and E.
Mrazek. Expose Howard and Coreau.

Vegas has to take one guy from each team IIRC, so unless they'd just take Coreau Detroit's guaranteed to dump one enh contract.

Or they'll just take AA when we protect Zetterberg.

 

[HockeyinHD]

Or they'll just take AA when we protect Zetterberg.

"Z, Nielsen, Abby, Helm, Mantha, Glen, AA. Expose Nyquist, Sheahan."

 

[InjuredChoker]

wings have to expose more than just the bad deals. likes of sproul/ouellet/frk can be taken if they for whatever reason don't want to take nyquist.

 

[Frk It]

"Z, Nielsen, Abby, Helm, Mantha, Glen, AA. Expose Nyquist, Sheahan."

Protect Helm and expose Nyquist and Tatar? .....

We'd be so lucky to have someone take Helm's contract off our hands.

 

[jkutswings]

Yeah, I don't get it, either. Abby and Helm are good role players who got oversigned, not key pieces to protect.

Some folks think "try hard" and "hustle" are worth a combined $8M/yr, I guess.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

7 forwards: Zetterberg, Nielsen, Nyquist, Abdelkader, Helm, Larkin, Mantha. Glendening and Sheahan are the two forwards who played 40+ the team exposes. Maybe the team flips Z and Glendening if they are being cute. I doubt it.

Edit: Hell, Larkin's exempt. That makes it even easier. Issn't AA exempt too? Tough to tell. If not, protect him instead of larkin.

3 dmen: Green, DK, and either Marchenko or Sproul. Kronwall and E are the exposed players.

Those two are super easy. I have no idea what the team can/will/should do as far as the goalies go after the year Mrazek has put up. I guess protect him since he is both cheaper and up a year sooner, but there aren't a lot of superior choices.

Nope both Mantha and AA need to be protected here.

 

[Retire91]

Expose Howard, Abby, Nielsen, Helm for sure. Great contracts to get out from under.

 

[SirloinUB]

Expose Howard, Abby, Nielsen, Helm for sure. Great contracts to get out from under.

I'd hope Nielsen is protected.

 

[SimplySolace]

Nielsen HAS to be protected (NMC)

 

[FireBird71]

Nielsen is the only one...no way I protect Abdelkader,Helm,Zetterberg or anyone who is signed for multiple years

 

[Retire91]

Zetts has to be protected because of the cap recapture clause Also think that would be a pretty big smack in the face for someone that meant that much to the franchise. If there is one bad contract that we have to eat I think that is it

 

[jkutswings]

Nielsen is the only one...no way I protect Abdelkader,Helm,Zetterberg or anyone who is signed for multiple years

In concept, I'm with you 100 percent, but I think the recapture penalty on Hank's contract makes him a lock for protection (aside from the whole, 'retire a Red Wing' sentiment).

Can anybody confirm the recapture aspect, relative to expansion selection, or am I wrong on that part?

EDIT: Looks like Pizzarena91 beat me to the punch.