Post this on the other thread on the main boards, so I'll leave it here.
Out of curiosity, where does one find this "WAR" statistic? And since when did they start calculating WAR in hockey? I thought that was strictly a baseball stat. I personally use point shares that are listed on hockey reference and according to that EP's point share this year was 7.7 points. 5.7 on offense and 2.0 on defense. Last year his point share was 7.8 (offense 6.0 and defense 1.8) thought he did play 3 more games.
Auston Matthews on the other hand according to the site has had point share of 10.8 this season in 70 games (8.9 on offense and 2.0 on defense). Last year he had PS of 8.3 (7.6/0.7) in 68 games (he was absolute trash defensively and it shows in this stat), year before he had PS of 9.1 (7/2.1) in 62 games and rookie year he had a PS of 9.7 (8.2/1.5) in 82 games.
Guys like Bergeron who is the top forward defensively perennially has gotten 2.5, 2.7, 2.8, 1.7 (reputation award?) in his selke seasons. ROR last year had 3.1, Kopitar had 3.0 and 3.3 in his 2 selke seasons. Datsyuk had a rediculous 3.7 in 07-08 which was his most memorable season overall.
So yea, looking at my most likely simplified statistic, it would appear that Auston and Elias both had equal impact on the defensive end or Elias might have been 0.1 DPS more if adjusted for the 2 game difference? But I don't think that difference in defense offsets the whopping 3.2 offensive point share gap?
Top offensive point shares this season in order were:
Draisaitl 10.9
Pasta 10.8
McDavid 9.3
MacKinnon 8.9
Matthews 8.9
Panarin 8.8
Kucherov 8.3
Zibby 8.2
Ovi 8.0
Top defensive point shares this season for forwards:
Marchand 2.6
Panarin 2.6
Pasta 2.4
Bergeron 2.3
Teravainen 2.3
Cirelli 2.2
Kopitar 2.2
Point 2.2
Coutourier 2.2
Kucherov 2.1
Danault 2.1
To me both of those lists actually meet the eye tests as well.
TLDR
Matthews and Pettersson were on par defensively this year, however Matthews blew him out of the water offensively.
Playoffs wise, Pettersson has been stellar and gotten more than 50% of his points on the PP (which is not a knock but he really cleans out). Matthews isn't a no-show in the playoffs. He's faced arguably much much tougher defensive competition in Washinton, Boston x 2 and Columbus. Vs. Petey facing Wild (w/ backup G, Stl with 2 goalies who couldn't stop a beachball and Vegas who have Lehner who IMO is a fantastic goalie and a good defensive challenge. I suspect, if the Leafs were going head to head with these 3 teams vs the 4 they've faced in the last 4 seasons, they would fare quite well.
For me, Pettersson is a fantastic player and is a shoe-in to be a top 10 center in the NHL for the next 10 years. However, Matthews is still a tier above and arguably going to go head to head vs anyone else to secure that #2/3 /4C spot behind McDavid and MacK/ Drai (if he keeps up).
As much as people are hyping Pettersson for his ceiling and rapid improvement in play. His offensive production hasn't changed a ton while his defense still remains pretty damn good and slightly better this year compared to last. Matthews on the other hand had a massive dip defensively last year but other than the one season, he's been consistently good defensively and is improving in that area as well. He unlike Petey however is absolutely taking off offensively every season. The only thing that derails him are injuries. If he can stay healthy, I have very minimal doubt that Auston hits somewhere between 55-60 goals and 100-110+ points over 82 games next season (if we even get that many games). Meanwhile, I doubt Pettersson sniffs 40 goals or 90-100 points next year or even the year after. In a career year, I can see him getting to 90-95+ points however, but I don't think we see more than 1 or 2 seasons at that level. Matthews should post multiple 90-95+ point seasons for a good stretch assuming he stays healthy.