Speculation: Eichel: Do we want/need him? .....Who/what would you trade?

[The Lukeman]

Speaking of salary CAP, if the Sabres move Eichel, doesn't that drop them below the CAP floor?

Regardless of whether or not the Sabres trade Eichel, they will be under the cap floor. They are currently $2 million under, but still need to sign Rasmus Dahlin, who will put them over. A trade for Eichel needs to have an equivalent cap hit return.

Adding more, Eichel's surgery has about a 12 week recovery period +/- a couple of weeks. Assuming he got the surgery today. He would be avaliable to play around December, which would mark about 35% of the season gone. That would put his cap hit at about $6.5 million for 2021-2022, assuming he came back mid december and played the remaining games.

His cap hit won't really be a problem until year 4 and 5, where we will have to resign the big kids and still be on the hook for Danault and Doughty. Next year, we will have $20 million in cap space + any cap space Buffalo took to resign: Kempe, Vilardi, Anderson, Peterson (assuming none of them were involved in the trade). The season after that, the only significant FA is Bjornfot.

 

[Token]

Fair from the Kings perspective, yes. Everything above is in their favor.

Here's a question, would you have traded Kopitar, after he blew out his knee in 2011 for:

Nick Schmaltz
Mike Matheson
A middling cap dump
Josh Norris
and conditional 3rd?

That's essentially what you are offering here. Some good players there, that's probably marginally better than the Kings offer above. But would you do it?

The back thing is certainly scary, but he's skating around ripping shots at the moment. Look at it from a Buffalo perspective and think about if you would take the above offer, seeing how they are obviously going to start from scratch again and want quality over quantity.

If Jack was on his ELC or a bridge deal, yeah, that would hold water, but there is the big payroll to consider as well.

If we had to overpay, I’d be fine with both Vilardi and Kupari going back with the other players, but they ain’t getting the blue-chips.

Can’t ignore the actual $$$ and risk of the neck injury.

 

[HookKing]

If Jack was on his ELC or a bridge deal, yeah, that would hold water, but there is the big payroll to consider as well.

If we had to overpay, I’d be fine with both Vilardi and Kupari going back with the other players, but they ain’t getting the blue-chips.

Can’t ignore the actual $$$ and risk of the neck injury.

Yep, some of these posters are delusional about Eichel's worth in today's market. If he could get all "that" he would have been traded long ago.

 

[Fishhead]

If Jack was on his ELC or a bridge deal, yeah, that would hold water, but there is the big payroll to con@sider as well.

If we had to overpay, I’d be fine with both Vilardi and Kupari going back with the other players, but they ain’t getting the blue-chips.

Can’t ignore the actual $$$ and risk of the neck injury.

Then you won't get Eichel, and that's fine. Buffalo has no problems with payroll, it's the opposite actually. So it's not like we'd be doing them a favor. And Vilardi and Kupari aren't overpaying, that doesn't even get them to listen. There is a lot of overvaluation of our prospects going on here.

Buffalo probably won't get all they want for Eichel whenever he goes, but that price isn't going to drop until something definitive comes of his injury. Right now, they have nothing to indicate he won't make a full recovery, so the price is going to be really high. They also don't have a whole lot of reasons to trade him right now, regardless of what Eichel's camp thinks or says, so they would make sure all the risk is on the team acquiring him. It makes zero sense, risk or cap-wise. Three years down the road would be a different story.

Yep, some of these posters are delusional about Eichel's worth in today's market. If he could get all "that" he would have been traded long ago.

This would make sense if Eichel was on the block, but he's not. These offers are for a player that Adams really doesn't want to trade, and if he does he's going to be patient about it and maximize what he can. It's not like Buffalo is in a good position anyways, there is no reason to rush for them.

Remember the awful offers being tossed around by other teams when Doughty was holding out? Or when other teams have disgruntled or holdout guys? That's what's going on here right now.

 

[Trash Panda]

Jack Eichel is going to cost a pretty penny, injuries or none.

Think more along the lines of what Mike Richards cost, and you’re probably in the ballpark.

 

[Token]

Then you won't get Eichel

If you say so.

Just for grins, here is the last time a “big” trade went down; Erik Karlsson:


Dylan DeMelo · $900,000
Chris Tierney · $2,937,500
Rūdolfs Balcers · $0 (AHL/JR)
Joshua Norris · $0 (Signing Rights)
2020 conditional 1st round pick* (SJS - #3 - Tim Stützle)
2021 conditional 2nd round pick** (SJS - #39 - Zach Ostapchuk)
2019 conditional 2nd round pick*** (FLA - #44 - Jamieson Rees)
Conditional 1st round pick****

****Sens receive a 1st round pick from the Sharks (no later than 2022) if Karlsson is on an Eastern Conference roster (reserve list) during the 2018-19 season.
****Result: Condition not met, no pick is transferred - snip - more conditions that never materialized.

Basically a mid 1st prospect, 1st round pick, couple 2nd round picks, couple mid-range roster players.

Sens did score big when SJ imploded and they drafted Stutzle, but no one was banking on that when this deal went down.

Similar disgruntled situations, but Karlsson wasn’t broken at the time.

You probably are right about Adams not wanting to deal him. He seems to be deliberately blocking any trade.

 

[All The Kings Men]

I think it’s a mistake to assume

True.

 

[BringTheReign]

If you say so.

Just for grins, here is the last time a “big” trade went down; Erik Karlsson:


Dylan DeMelo · $900,000
Chris Tierney · $2,937,500
Rūdolfs Balcers · $0 (AHL/JR)
Joshua Norris · $0 (Signing Rights)
2020 conditional 1st round pick* (SJS - #3 - Tim Stützle)
2021 conditional 2nd round pick** (SJS - #39 - Zach Ostapchuk)
2019 conditional 2nd round pick*** (FLA - #44 - Jamieson Rees)
Conditional 1st round pick****

****Sens receive a 1st round pick from the Sharks (no later than 2022) if Karlsson is on an Eastern Conference roster (reserve list) during the 2018-19 season.
****Result: Condition not met, no pick is transferred - snip - more conditions that never materialized.

Basically a mid 1st prospect, 1st round pick, couple 2nd round picks, couple mid-range roster players.

Sens did score big when SJ imploded and they drafted Stutzle, but no one was banking on that when this deal went down.

Similar disgruntled situations, but Karlsson wasn’t broken at the time.

You probably are right about Adams not wanting to deal him. He seems to be deliberately blocking any trade.

Karlsson was also a pending UFA at the time of the trade, older, and had a history of multiple injuries.

 

[HookKing]

If you say so.

Just for grins, here is the last time a “big” trade went down; Erik Karlsson:


Dylan DeMelo · $900,000
Chris Tierney · $2,937,500
Rūdolfs Balcers · $0 (AHL/JR)
Joshua Norris · $0 (Signing Rights)
2020 conditional 1st round pick* (SJS - #3 - Tim Stützle)
2021 conditional 2nd round pick** (SJS - #39 - Zach Ostapchuk)
2019 conditional 2nd round pick*** (FLA - #44 - Jamieson Rees)
Conditional 1st round pick****

****Sens receive a 1st round pick from the Sharks (no later than 2022) if Karlsson is on an Eastern Conference roster (reserve list) during the 2018-19 season.
****Result: Condition not met, no pick is transferred - snip - more conditions that never materialized.

Basically a mid 1st prospect, 1st round pick, couple 2nd round picks, couple mid-range roster players.

Sens did score big when SJ imploded and they drafted Stutzle, but no one was banking on that when this deal went down.

Similar disgruntled situations, but Karlsson wasn’t broken at the time.

You probably are right about Adams not wanting to deal him. He seems to be deliberately blocking any trade.

Adams doesn't want to deal him because no one is offering anything...

 

[Statto]

We don’t need a C… we have more depth in the organisation at C than pretty much any team in league history. We need a top LHD and we shouldn’t be trading any key assets until we have the actual gap in the organisation filled. It’s also entirely possible (I’m not saying likely) we will need to acquire a new #1 goaltender if Cal isn’t able to take the next step. Acquiring Eichel at this point would be highly questionable when we have more pressing uses for the movable assets we have. Once we know those positions are set then if they want/need to make major trade at forward to put us over the top then great.

As for who? I still wouldn’t want Eichel. Apart from the injury there are huge red flags about his character for me. When a players views on the team are conveniently leaked, his agent has too much to say and the player says nothing then it seems it’s being done with his backing. Plenty of Buffalo fans have previously articulated concerns about ‘Coach and GM Eichel’ and that’s before the recent neck stuff, where again he allowed his agent to have too much rope as well as his tweet(s). It’s all too public. He certainly doesn’t seem to be a good Captain as if there is a team lacking in leadership it’s the Sabres. A Captain whose issues are always in the media isn’t focused on leading his team IMO.

So, if we were to mistakenly trade for him I really hope we don’t end up with leaks to the media when he doesn’t like his wingers or when he’s playing second fiddle to
Byfield. A player like that can destroy a room, especially with such a young group and if the stuff I’ve read over the last couple of years is even half true it’s not a risk we should be taking.

Maybe I’m wrong, but there’s an awful lot of smoke when you look for it.

 

[Token]

Adams doesn't want to deal him because no one is offering anything...

I dunno, he traded Reinhart for a lottery protected 1st, likely in the 20+ range, and a long-odds goalie prospect.

It appears rather deliberate to pressure Eichel.

 

[Token]

Karlsson was also a pending UFA at the time of the trade, older, and had a history of multiple injuries.

So do you have an example of the equivalent of 4 first rounders going one way in a trade for a single player?

It’s easy to nitpick minutiae on a forum, but the situation is unprecedented, so there will not be a precise match.

Joe Sakic traded a couple big-shot players … never got a really big haul for them. It was OK.

Blues got ROR for what many consider a steal.

No team can afford to spend so many assets of that quality on a single player. Full stop.

 

[SmytheKing]

So do you have an example of the equivalent of 4 first rounders going one way in a trade for a single player?

It’s easy to nitpick minutiae on a forum, but the situation is unprecedented, so there will not be a precise match.

Joe Sakic traded a couple big-shot players … never got a really big haul for them. It was OK.

Blues got ROR for what many consider a steal.

No team can afford to spend so many assets of that quality on a single player. Full stop.

Not the equivalent because players like Eichel aren't often traded but, the Avs traded Duchene for the following:

Sam Girard
Shane Bowers
Vladislav Kamenev
1st Round pick
2nd Round pick
3rd Round pick

That was for a 20 goal and 50 point player. I'm guessing you'll get more for a 30 goal and 80 point guy who is 3 or 4 years younger when he'll be traded. Especially if you have to do a team a favor because they don't have the cap room to take him on.

The trade isn't happening, but you'd be starting with Turcotte and Kaliyev I'm sure. Then it's about picks vs. prospects and what you're willing to give up.

 

[Trash Panda]

Eichel is not the missing piece, is price prohibitive, and would be an overall poor choice to make at this juncture for the organization.

Move on.

 

[Docgonzo]

Fair from the Kings perspective, yes. Everything above is in their favor.

Here's a question, would you have traded Kopitar, after he blew out his knee in 2011 for:

Nick Schmaltz
Mike Matheson
A middling cap dump
Josh Norris
and conditional 3rd?

That's essentially what you are offering here. Some good players there, that's probably marginally better than the Kings offer above. But would you do it?

The back thing is certainly scary, but he's skating around ripping shots at the moment. Look at it from a Buffalo perspective and think about if you would take the above offer, seeing how they are obviously going to start from scratch again and want quality over quantity.

When did Kopitar blow out his knee? His injury in 2011 before the playoffs was a broke leg. Completely different injury and bounce back. If Eichel had a broken leg there would be zero hesitation to trade for him.

 

[Fishhead]

When did Kopitar blow out his knee? His injury in 2011 before the playoffs was a broke leg. Completely different injury and bounce back. If Eichel had a broken leg there would be zero hesitation to trade for him.

It was just a comparison as the injury happened about the same age and such as Eichel, and Kopitar was already a dominant center. Yeah, my bad his leg, or I think it was his ankle. I also get that neck injuries are scarier, but Eichel is getting ready to start the season, so it can't be that bad. Whatever conservative approach they seemed to do has at least reaped some rewards.

Seeing him skate around and rip shots really makes me wonder, though.

 

[FSL KINGS]

This sure is fun. No one met Kevin Adams ask on the 1st go around. King's are still in a position to make one of the better offers that doesn't see Eichel stay in division or the state.

Sabers come down on their price or ride into Eichel's NMC & 7.5 million bonus next summer.

Holding onto Eichel could go badly too. What if he goes on the IR any time his neck gets sore next season. Play 2 game, sit out a week, rinse & repeat.

Not worried about his attitude. Carter was miserable in CBJ too & that worked out.

Side note: wonder what the ask for B. Tkachuk is.

 

[KingsCrunch]

Whoever gets Eichel will get a great cheerleader.

 

[Icejoker]

The problem for Buffalo is that Adams promise the fans that he get four top first prospect and 2 other players for Eichel. Nobody give him that. Eichel has since he been draft been the leader on Buffalo but he is not a good leader so if LA trade for him they should put him on Kopitars wing. Dont now which player Adams accept but Andersson could be a intresting player because Rangers trade up to get him and buffalofans be more than happy if a rangersbust pan out in their team.

 

[kingsfan]

I'd love to have Eichel skill wise, but I'll pass in terms of the cost. Injury issues and salary aside, we also just dropped a ton of cap space on Danault to be our future 3rd line C and tying $25.5 mill into our top three centers would be tough to overcome in a flat cap world. I'd rather stick with Byfield/Turcotte coming in than paying whatever dream payout Adams has envisioned for a highly skilled but potentially broken guy. All of that doesn't touch on character, which I think has it's own issue for Eichel. He's very competitive, yes, but I question how much of it is compete and how much is a negative attitude. There's a fine line and I think he treads it. All in all, there's other areas to dump our asset load, such as a legit future number one netminder if Peterson doesn't pan out.

 

[Rorschach]

I don't think we were ever in the running, either from Buffalo's view or LA's view, for Eichel. Buffalo wants top young NHL player/s and full price while LA would want to pay what he's really worth, dump salary in the deal and trade only futures.

The whole thing was speculated purely based upon pundits and HFB'ers who saw our overflowing futures riches and our big cap space, and assumed we would go for it. But we don't have what Buffalo wants and we don't want to pay the value of what Buffalo is asking.


In my mind, using the + and - system of valuation where a + is higher additional significant value and - is lesser, the normal value of a player like Jack Eichel has five minuses in my estimation. 2x minus for his current injury status, 2x minus for his current cap hit in the COVID-depressed revenue world along with current cap statuses of all contender teams, and 1x minus for his publicly-expressed not wanting to play in Buffalo (only 1x because he's not about to become UFA or something like Seth Jones' situation before the Chicago deal). I normally count 2x + or - to equal about a 1st rounder about 15th overall-ish in value.

So Jack's value should start around 2 1sts and about a 2nd rounder/decent prospect less than normal, like say his last year's value...factoring penalties as his current health, his huge cap hit, and his current attitude towards Buffalo.

But Buffalo wants 100% value for him and we're not in the habit of bending over for other teams in the Blake GM era...we didn't accumulate the #1 pool of futures in the NHL by doing that. So LA was never really gunning for Eichel once that first question was answered in that first phone call happened between the teams.