Confirmed Signing with Link: [EDM] Darnell Nurse signs extension with the Oilers (8 years, $9.25M AAV) PART II

[periferal]

You really do have to feel sorry for Oiler fans at this point, regardless of who you cheer for.

This has got to be the most pathetic group of back to back to back to back management in a very long time.

It boggles my mind that a group of the “best” analysts and hockey leaders in the world can think this is a good contract to sign when 99% of non Oiler hockey fans could tell immediately that this was a brutal contract

In fairness...How often do you really see hockey analysts/insiders openly criticize any team's moves in public? At best they put gentle language on it when reporting, but what you hear on TV/media ain't what they're saying when the cameras are off.

 

[Bouboumaster]

Wade Redden was also an example of a guy with very few "elite" tools (arguably, his only elite tool was his first pass) but absolutely elite IQ. Kinda the opposite of Nurse. Once Redden lost a step, likely due to a combination of grief, injuries, and inability to be completely committed to the game, he became a FAR more limited player, as he struggled to adjust his game to his new limitations.

PK Subban, while more similar to Nurse than to Redden, is another guy who this has happened to - although recently he's gotten a bit better. That said, if not for his huge contract and the ability to bury full cap-hits in the minors (I think that was the case, right?), Redden never would have been in the AHL.

Subban had really good years in Nashville tho, and was also a beast in the playoffs. His decline was... Impressive to say the least but his contract wasn't that bad, especially in its first years.

Nurse is a straight-up terrible contract (amazingly still not even their worse contract on defense - looking at you Barrie)

 

[periferal]

I don't think the Oilers are likely to do that, considering it would leave them with 4 and a half million dollars of dead cap until 2030. They just have to hope Nurse improves.

Love when my GM makes moves where all we can do is rely on "hope."

 

[bucks_oil]

Contract hasn't started yet.



Half the fan base was on board with this, all you have to do is read this very thread.



Irrelevant to the topic of Nurse becoming one of the worst contracts in hockey.

I remember when Draisaitl had one of the worst contracts in hockey history.

This bump is reactionary to Nurse's worst game of the year last night. He was putrid, no sugar coating.

But he's also been our best defenseman all year. A positive oiGF/GA ratio, scoring at 0.5 ppg, most of that at EV, playing 26 mins a night in all situations. A positive xGF/xGA ratio.

And all of those positive statistical contributions come in a year when we can all see his offense hasn't been as strong as last year, yet still contributing positively. If this year's performance is all he has to bring, would the contract be an overpay? Yeah.

But I wouldn't declare victory just yet... he can and has played better. And he turned 27 last month. And his contract hasn't started yet.

 

[periferal]

Nurse is way way overpaid.

I mean this is some sort of post 43 pages in.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Subban had really good years in Nashville tho, and was also a beast in the playoffs. His decline was... Impressive to say the least but his contract wasn't that bad, especially in its first years.

Nurse is a straight-up terrible contract (amazingly still not even their worse contract on defense - looking at you Barrie)

Subban was worth it for most of his contract, for sure... he's just an example of a guy who lost a step and was horribly handicapped by it.

Nurse is a good player, but 9.25m, or whatever it is, is definitely too much.

 

[OG Eberle]

0/4 of a season into his contract extension. It starts next year lol

The contract extension hasn't started yet

He got that contract based on an outlier 56 games playing against only Canadian teams. Nothing about his previous play showed he deserved that contract, and his play this season is more of that

Contract hasn't started yet.

Sweet. 3 quotes. 3 people calling out literal semantics.

I'm well aware it hasn't started yet. But no one is having this "Nurse sucks and is overpaid" circle-jerk in his contract extension thread from last summer (i.e. 3/4 of a season ago) if this wasn't signed.

Again, Nurse and his contract is far from the problem in Edmonton. He provides a ton for the Oilers and we are a much worse team without him right now. Those saying Chairot and another dman would've been better are out to lunch.

While most of us Oiler fans thought and said it was an overpay when he signed it, its not to the extent of which some are saying he's $4-5million overpaid.

But I guess it's super easy to write that narrative the day after he has a tough game...

 

[ElPrimeTime]

Pretty much everyone agreed that this deal was 1.5-2 higher/year than it should have been. But with the bridge deal and Klefbom's injury, the Oilers were in a poor position leverage wise (not that Holland knows how to use leverage anyway). If the Oilers let him walk, they lose their top d-man, with no suitable replacement. Additionally, it would send a message that the Oilers are not interested in competing at all which could lead to other players asking for trades or not signing/re-signing here (Nuge/Hyman).

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Pretty much everyone agreed that this deal was 1.5-2 higher/year than it should have been. But with the bridge deal and Klefbom's injury, the Oilers were in a poor position leverage wise (not that Holland knows how to use leverage anyway). If the Oilers let him walk, they lose their top d-man, with no suitable replacement. Additionally, it would send a message that the Oilers are not interested in competing at all which could lead to other players asking for trades or not signing/re-signing here (Nuge/Hyman).

Pretty spot on. Nurse is a really good player and, while I dont see his contract ever being good value, he should be a top pairing, offensively capable player for a good portion of his deal (barring a series of serious injuries). If he was making $1.5m-2m less, there would be absolutely nothing to complain about.

 

[Mr Kot]

Pretty much everyone agreed that this deal was 1.5-2 higher/year than it should have been. But with the bridge deal and Klefbom's injury, the Oilers were in a poor position leverage wise (not that Holland knows how to use leverage anyway). If the Oilers let him walk, they lose their top d-man, with no suitable replacement. Additionally, it would send a message that the Oilers are not interested in competing at all which could lead to other players asking for trades or not signing/re-signing here (Nuge/Hyman).

Never thought of it that way tbh. Klef being injured really set this team back.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Never thought of it that way tbh. Klef being injured really set this team back.

If he was still around and thriving, you probably have a top pairing (well, two top pairing D) locked up at ~11-12mil instead of one top pairing D locked up at ~9m

 

[Hodge]

He's overpaid by $2-2.5M/year max which is not even as much as other Oilers like Barrie and Kassian are overpaid by.

 

[The Real JT]

I mean this is some sort of post 43 pages in.

File that one under “water is wet”.

While I’m at it I’ll add this. Granted it’s a homer outlook and may have already been posted but how in the world can Nurse get paid waaaay more than Adam Pelech?

I know offensive Dmen command a premium but Nurse isn’t worth Pelech in an even up trade let alone being paid $3.5M/year more.

 

[ManofSteel55]

If you think shooting percentage is particularly relevant in a 9.25 million dollar contract for a defence man then you're using the wrong metrics.

Nurse was fantastic last year, but in no world was he going to get more than 9.25 even if he had continued his great play. What is he, suddenly an 11 million dollar D? Only the Kings and Sharks have D making that much and, current good play by the Kings notwithstanding, it hasn't proven to be a good move.

If he had had another great year and gotten his deal, fine. But doing it off of a shortened year where you only played 6 other teams is insane.

The Oilers were in a bad position with Nurse last year. They had to either extend him to a contract similar to Seth Jones (who Nurse has been better than for a few years now) or risk having him walk as a free agent. I would rather have Nurse at the 7M he should have, but the options were to sign him for 9+ or let the only #1 defenseman we have had since Pronger walk as a free agent with no replacement coming in sight. I would rather overpay Nurse than have Tyson Barrie or an aging Duncan Keith as our #1.

 

[Bank Shot]

File that one under “water is wet”.

While I’m at it I’ll add this. Granted it’s a homer outlook and may have already been posted but how in the world can Nurse get paid waaaay more than Adam Pelech?

I know offensive Dmen command a premium but Nurse isn’t worth Pelech in an even up trade let alone being paid $3.5M/year more.

Yeah I mean Pelech is leading the Islanders into the playoffs this year with his commanding presence. Can't say the same about Nurse.

 

[Double Dion]

The Oilers were in a bad position with Nurse last year. They had to either extend him to a contract similar to Seth Jones (who Nurse has been better than for a few years now) or risk having him walk as a free agent. I would rather have Nurse at the 7M he should have, but the options were to sign him for 9+ or let the only #1 defenseman we have had since Pronger walk as a free agent with no replacement coming in sight. I would rather overpay Nurse than have Tyson Barrie or an aging Duncan Keith as our #1.

This is a good post. The Oilers had to keep Nurse. They had no choice. He also had the best season of his career coming into that contract. I think it's pretty easy to defend the Nurse deal. Canadian teams have to overpay. This is a fact. The one that was really a poor decision was looking at the D market and targeting Keith. I don't know how the Oilers had to give up assets and eat all of that cap hit. Graves would have been the better fit, lower cap hit and very similar acquisition cost.

 

[The Real JT]

Yeah I mean Pelech is leading the Islanders into the playoffs this year with his commanding presence. Can't say the same about Nurse.

Don’t be insulted. Nurse is a good player. I never said or insinuated otherwise.

He’s substantially overpaid on his new contract. That’s all.

 

[McDoused]

I'm all for running our with pitchforks next year but let's not hate on a guy whose extension hasnt even kicked in yet. He has been exceptional for his current cap hit. At this point we dont know what he may or may not do in the future. For all we know Nurse could win the Norris next year.

 

[bucks_oil]

Never thought of it that way tbh. Klef being injured really set this team back.

Must not be an Oilers fan... we are painfully aware of how much better we'd have been if our blue line was:

Nurse Bouchard
Klef Larsson (they are besties)
Neimelainen Barrie
Russell, Lagesson, Broberg

Instead we end up with Keith for Klef and Ceci for Larsson and didn't even save any money on cap.

Also... just to add, I don't think other fans are realizing that Nurse is doing the heavy lifting with a choice of ~Rookie Bouchard and Barrie as his partner. And for a good portion of the year, the Keith-Ceci 2nd pairing has not been intact due to injury.

I can hear the Oiler-haters screaming now, "injuries aren't an excuse, you need depth".... yeah... we know. And we don't have enough of that yet, but we've been top third of the league when healthy and bottom third when not healthy.... so we get it. It doesn't mean the core players we have aren't good... it means we're only just getting there in terms of depth and can't insulate ourselves against the fall-off from Bouchard to Lagesson, or RNH to Turris.

 

[Goldenhands]

I remember when Draisaitl had one of the worst contracts in hockey history.

This bump is reactionary to Nurse's worst game of the year last night. He was putrid, no sugar coating.

But he's also been our best defenseman all year. A positive oiGF/GA ratio, scoring at 0.5 ppg, most of that at EV, playing 26 mins a night in all situations. A positive xGF/xGA ratio.

And all of those positive statistical contributions come in a year when we can all see his offense hasn't been as strong as last year, yet still contributing positively. If this year's performance is all he has to bring, would the contract be an overpay? Yeah.

But I wouldn't declare victory just yet... he can and has played better. And he turned 27 last month. And his contract hasn't started yet.

He is à third defenseman playing top minutes on a bad squad. Wrong chair and badly overpaid, that contract is going to Hurt that franchise alot and for à long time.

 

[bucks_oil]

He is à third defenseman playing top minutes on a bad squad. Wrong chair and badly overpaid, that contract is going to Hurt that franchise alot and for à long time.

Weird... why did that 3rd defensemen:

• Finish 7th in Norris voting last year?
• In consideration for Canada's Olympic team? (he likely wasn't going to make it, but he was in the mix)
• Have a more positive EV xGF/GA and oiGF/GA than Adam Fox, despite playing on an inferior team, with an inferior partner?
• 10th in EVP over the last three years?
• 50th in EVP in a year where he's clearly struggling (noting 50th puts him in 2nd D-man territory)

You can say he's overpaid without getting into hyperbole.

Other than your opinion, do you have an actual argument (*any data?) to support it?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Imagine paying this guy more than Leon Draisaitl lol

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

The Oilers were in a bad position with Nurse last year. They had to either extend him to a contract similar to Seth Jones (who Nurse has been better than for a few years now) or risk having him walk as a free agent. I would rather have Nurse at the 7M he should have, but the options were to sign him for 9+ or let the only #1 defenseman we have had since Pronger walk as a free agent with no replacement coming in sight. I would rather overpay Nurse than have Tyson Barrie or an aging Duncan Keith as our #1.

I'm just curious why they couldn't have waited until halfway through this season to make the offer?

 

[bsu]

6 million dollar defensemen.

 

[BB88]

When are GM's going to grow some stones and realize players are very rarely worth 7-8 year mega deals? They should be signing 2-3 year contracts

With cap it would be incredible difficult to build anything longterm with contracts like that