Duchene

[glenngineer]

http://predlines.com/2017/02/05/nashville-predators-need-matt-duchene/

Here's a new one from me. Started writing again. Enjoy.

Click to read more...

 

[Scoresberg]

Great article Glenn, really an great all-around insight to the situation. Agreeed with you pretty much on everything but the thing I disagree strongly is the Fiala stuff. No way I'm giving up Ekholm, A Dman prospect and Fiala who has top-6 potential. Ek + Fabbro/Carrier/Girard + 1st is the maximum where I go. No way I'm giving up on Fiala. Hope Poile agrees.

 

[SpeedDemon]

The asking price for Duchene is literally an arm and a leg.

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

The asking price for Duchene is literally an arm and a leg.

Okay, whose arm and whose leg?

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Great article Glenn, really an great all-around insight to the situation. Agreeed with you pretty much on everything but the thing I disagree strongly is the Fiala stuff. No way I'm giving up Ekholm, A Dman prospect and Fiala who has top-6 potential. Ek + Fabbro/Carrier/Girard + 1st is the maximum where I go. No way I'm giving up on Fiala. Hope Poile agrees.

I don't agree. Trading Ekholm already sacrifices from the little defensive depth we have and trading a top D prospect hinders that even further. Acquiring Duchene already resolves some of the depth scoring issues that Fiala is figured to help solve and depth scoring wingers are a significantly easier asset to land than quality top 4 d-men/prospects. Add to that the organization does not seem to be as high on Fiala as the fans around here are.

 

[PredsV82]

I again say no to trading Ekholm. I'd give Fiala and one of the D prospects and a 1st before I'd give Ekholm. If Sakic is looking two or three years into the future he'd be better off with someone like Fabbro or Carrier instead of a guy who will be close to Ufa status

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

I again say no to trading Ekholm. I'd give Fiala and one of the D prospects and a 1st before I'd give Ekholm. If Sakic is looking two or three years into the future he'd be better off with someone like Fabbro or Carrier instead of a guy who will be close to Ufa status

I'm even more in favor of that, but assume Sakic is going to want something that is assured NHL quality on the blueline.

 

[triggrman]

Again, we are not thin on defense.

Subban and Josi are 2 of the best in the league.

Ellis and Ekholm are 2 if the better 2nd pairing defenders.

Matt Irwin is playing like a good 2nd pairing guy.

Bitetto and Weber are good number 6 defenders.

We have 2 or 3 guys in Milwaukee that aren't that out of place in the nhl.

We have 2 high in prospects in Fabbro and Girard.

Where is this lack of depth?

 

[glenngineer]

Again, we are not thin on defense.

Subban and Josi are 2 of the best in the league.

Ellis and Ekholm are 2 if the better 2nd pairing defenders.

Matt Irwin is playing like a good 2nd pairing guy.

Bitetto and Weber are good number 6 defenders.

We have 2 or 3 guys in Milwaukee that aren't that out of place in the nhl.

We have 2 high in prospects in Fabbro and Girard.

Where is this lack of depth?

#2 Center?

 

[triggrman]

Right...

 

[thecloser]

The tough part about this is putting ekholm, carrier/fabbro and fiala on colorados roster. We'd have to see them for years to come and I don't like that one bit. But on the other hand, i like the acquisition of Duchene a whole, whole lot.

 

[Lug]

Nice article Glenn. I hope Poile can pull it off.

 

[Montross]

Again, we are not thin on defense.

Subban and Josi are 2 of the best in the league.

Ellis and Ekholm are 2 if the better 2nd pairing defenders.

Matt Irwin is playing like a good 2nd pairing guy.

Bitetto and Weber are good number 6 defenders.

We have 2 or 3 guys in Milwaukee that aren't that out of place in the nhl.

We have 2 high in prospects in Fabbro and Girard.

Where is this lack of depth?

Spot on. Irwin has been the biggest and best surprise on D this season. Carrier is drawing rave reviews in Milwaukee. This team would be just fine with Josi-Subban-Ellis-Irwin as the top 4 if that means our 2C (1B C in my opinion) becomes Duchene.

 

[Byrddog]

The tough part about this is putting ekholm, carrier/fabbro and fiala on colorados roster. We'd have to see them for years to come and I don't like that one bit. But on the other hand, i like the acquisition of Duchene a whole, whole lot.

And this is the exact reason this trade will not happen. On the opposite side Colorado would be strengthening a division opponent as well and is the reason the cost would be so high. Sakic would require Poile to cripple his team in one area to make the trade. He would want Ekholm, Fabbro, Girard and possibly a fourth piece a pick would hurt the Preds more than losing Fiala so that is likely what he would ask for. This would gut the defense and remove a pick from rebuilding it. Of course the Preds would be able to put a decent D on the ice at the first of the year but what if one had a back injury and another had a concussion????

If Duchene only had a LNMC or a NTC it would be easier I think theres little doubt he would be totally open to playing in Nashville but Sakic holds the cards.

 

[Scoresberg]

Tyler Johnson from TBL, would be an viable option, too. Obviously, we would have to have a insurance of him re-signing with us. TBL in a desperate need for a D, it wouldn't be within division and the gap between Ek and Johnson is not nearly as big as between Ek and Duchene. It would be Ek + something little for Johnson. Johnson is a playoff warrior, good on 3 on 3 and not horrible at the dot at 52.1%.

Why TBL would do it:

They solidify their defense for multiple years. They're going through a horrible season and they need to cut their roster somehow for cap reasons and for the ED. They'd save some dollars by cutting Johnson and Bishop. Losing Johnson down the middle wouldn't hurt them that much they Namestnikov, Filppula and Killorn pushing for that spot. A grade A prospect in Brayden Point in the pipeline.

They would get to protect Killorn in ED and they could send a pick to LV for not to take Namestnikov and instead take one of Coburn, Garrison or Bish. Or losing Namestnikov wouldn't hurt that much because of the depth they have upfront.

 

[nomorekids]

While obviously I would prefer to move Fabbro or Girard in a Duchene deal, I could see moving Ekholm *if* there was a short-term replacement\stopgap guy to get us through the rest of this season and maybe a couple of years after.

Ekholm is a good young defenseman, but we've seen his flaws as well. I ultimately don't think he's irreplaceable, and as Trigg states, he's the fourth best defenseman on the team at this point -- and to be honest, this season, there's not been a huge gap between him and Irwin.

 

[MrJoshua]

I think you'd have to move a top-4 D for Duchene, or any solid 2C, really. Why? Because otherwise you're in a real bind at the expansion draft. Right now Poile can protect 4F/4D and we're fine. We lose either Smith, Wilson, or Jarnkrok - not awesome, but you can live with that.

Add a 2C, though, and now you have to protect him. So you either lose Arvidsson, or you protect 7F/3D and lose Ekholm or Ellis.

So the answer would seem to be, if you want a 2C you move Ekholm or Ellis in the trade so you're getting something of equivalent value. Then you protect 7F/3D in the expansion draft.

Yeah, it opens up a hole on the second defensive pair. Which isn't awesome. But you still have two Norris-caliber defenders back there. The top 3 D is still awesome. It weakens the D for sure, but makes the team much stronger down the middle.

I don't know. If I was Poile I'd certainly have to consider it. But only for someone of Duchene's caliber. Otherwise I roll with the top 4 D intact.

 

[Soundgarden]

While obviously I would prefer to move Fabbro or Girard in a Duchene deal, I could see moving Ekholm *if* there was a short-term replacement\stopgap guy to get us through the rest of this season and maybe a couple of years after.

Ekholm is a good young defenseman, but we've seen his flaws as well. I ultimately don't think he's irreplaceable, and as Trigg states, he's the fourth best defenseman on the team at this point -- and to be honest, this season, there's not been a huge gap between him and Irwin.

I agree, if we can get someone like Kulikov, even though he may not be as good as Ekholm is when they're both on top of their game, it's definitely worth looking into.

Duchene fits in perfectly with all of the pieces Poile's accumulated within the last year or two: Forsberg, Neal, Johansen, Subban, Duchene are all excellent building blocks. It would be cool to get Duchene without having to give up Ekholm, but if you look at it from Colorado's perspective I think he'd need to be there.

 

[David Singleton]

I think you'd have to move a top-4 D for Duchene, or any solid 2C, really. Why? Because otherwise you're in a real bind at the expansion draft. Right now Poile can protect 4F/4D and we're fine. We lose either Smith, Wilson, or Jarnkrok - not awesome, but you can live with that.

Add a 2C, though, and now you have to protect him. So you either lose Arvidsson, or you protect 7F/3D and lose Ekholm or Ellis.

So the answer would seem to be, if you want a 2C you move Ekholm or Ellis in the trade so you're getting something of equivalent value. Then you protect 7F/3D in the expansion draft.

Yeah, it opens up a hole on the second defensive pair. Which isn't awesome. But you still have two Norris-caliber defenders back there. The top 3 D is still awesome. It weakens the D for sure, but makes the team much stronger down the middle.

I don't know. If I was Poile I'd certainly have to consider it. But only for someone of Duchene's caliber. Otherwise I roll with the top 4 D intact.

Trading Ekholm for Duchene would certainly make the expansion draft protection plans, in a vacuum, nice and tidy.

Firstly, I would trade Ekholm for Duchene if push came to shove.

Having said that, if I could convince the Avs to take one of Fabbro/Girad, a 1st, and a roster forward (Smith, for example), I would do that (assuming something even less wouldn't work). Either scenario ultimately sees a Predator's resoter without both Ekholm and Smith (presumably) following the expansion draft.

Keeping Ekholm now though, would allow us to ice our great Top 4 for the rest of the year with Duchene among the forward corp. Smith can be more easily replaced by Fiala or Aberg than our defense compensate for Ekholm's absence (but it could still be done).

I assume that Poile is trying something similar and may ultimately pull out altogether if the price gets too high.

As for the expansion draft, there's a lot of time before then and a lot could happen. Best to have a lot of different plans and options going into that draft and I have no doubt that Poile does- some that are nice and tidy and some that may not be.

 

[David Singleton]

And this is why a #2C is important:



That's a pretty rough forward group. The first line looks good on paper, but has never seemed to put it all together (consistently) with multiple tries the past couple of years.

 

[Byrddog]

Trading Ekholm for Duchene would certainly make the expansion draft protection plans, in a vacuum, nice and tidy.

Firstly, I would trade Ekholm for Duchene if push came to shove.

Having said that, if I could convince the Avs to take one of Fabbro/Girad, a 1st, and a roster forward (Smith, for example), I would do that (assuming something even less wouldn't work). Either scenario ultimately sees a Predator's resoter without both Ekholm and Smith (presumably) following the expansion draft.

Keeping Ekholm now though, would allow us to ice our great Top 4 for the rest of the year with Duchene among the forward corp. Smith can be more easily replaced by Fiala or Aberg than our defense compensate for Ekholm's absence (but it could still be done).

I assume that Poile is trying something similar and may ultimately pull out altogether if the price gets too high.

As for the expansion draft, there's a lot of time before then and a lot could happen. Best to have a lot of different plans and options going into that draft and I have no doubt that Poile does- some that are nice and tidy and some that may not be.

David in what world would Sakic even be tempted to do that within the division. If he trades within the division it is going to cost much more than that. He will want to cripple one aspect of the team he trades with in division. More along the lines of Ekholm + Fabbro or Girard and Kamnev would be what he would ask for. If Poile were that ignorant to decimate the blue line so be it. Any trade involving Smith or Wilson is going to require a sweetener from the Preds to get a deal done like the Lombarbi Franson from years back. Teams are not going to want to eat that 4 mil cap hit and who can blame them. In the last 42 games Smith has 4 goals and two of them were in one game. So 39 out the last 42 he has been goalless. Thats essentially half a season. Even if the guy gets hot and somehow does make it to 20 goals you can not ignore the fact he does not hit the score sheet enough to warrant 4 mil a year.

Duchene would sure be a nice addition but the amount it would take to land him is probably more than Poile or anyone in Nashville would want to pay.

 

[NSH615]

David in what world would Sakic even be tempted to do that within the division. If he trades within the division it is going to cost much more than that. He will want to cripple one aspect of the team he trades with in division. More along the lines of Ekholm + Fabbro or Girard and Kamnev would be what he would ask for. If Poile were that ignorant to decimate the blue line so be it. Any trade involving Smith or Wilson is going to require a sweetener from the Preds to get a deal done like the Lombarbi Franson from years back. Teams are not going to want to eat that 4 mil cap hit and who can blame them. In the last 42 games Smith has 4 goals and two of them were in one game. So 39 out the last 42 he has been goalless. Thats essentially half a season. Even if the guy gets hot and somehow does make it to 20 goals you can not ignore the fact he does not hit the score sheet enough to warrant 4 mil a year.

Duchene would sure be a nice addition but the amount it would take to land him is probably more than Poile or anyone in Nashville would want to pay.

Byrd, I think this year is an exception to the trade within division rule for Colorado. Nothing is working and they essentially need a full roster makeover.

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

David in what world would Sakic even be tempted to do that within the division.

I hate GM's who think like this. Absolutely despise it. If the best offer you get is from inside the division, make the deal. So you play them a few more times per year. Who the hell cares? I want my GM making the best trades possible and if the best offer happens to be within the division, we better damn well take it.

 

[David Singleton]

David in what world would Sakic even be tempted to do that within the division. If he trades within the division it is going to cost much more than that. He will want to cripple one aspect of the team he trades with in division. More along the lines of Ekholm + Fabbro or Girard and Kamnev would be what he would ask for. If Poile were that ignorant to decimate the blue line so be it. Any trade involving Smith or Wilson is going to require a sweetener from the Preds to get a deal done like the Lombarbi Franson from years back. Teams are not going to want to eat that 4 mil cap hit and who can blame them. In the last 42 games Smith has 4 goals and two of them were in one game. So 39 out the last 42 he has been goalless. Thats essentially half a season. Even if the guy gets hot and somehow does make it to 20 goals you can not ignore the fact he does not hit the score sheet enough to warrant 4 mil a year.

Duchene would sure be a nice addition but the amount it would take to land him is probably more than Poile or anyone in Nashville would want to pay.

Byrddog, my personal opinion is that trading within the division is overblown.

Happens fairly often and rarely is one team crippled. Chicago acquiring Andrew Ladd was crippling to Chicago. Nashville acquiring Sullivan from Chicago.

Ultimately, a good GM looks more at what's coming in versus what's going out versus instead of focusing on the team with which he is trading. Now, if there are multiple offers that are all extremely close, then division or conference may come into play.

*****

btw, I'm not suggesting that Sakic would accept such a trade, but that I would attempt to head that direction if possible. Doesn't have to be Smith. Could be Wilson or Jarnkrok. The point was to attempt to keep Ekholm for the rest of the season.

However, if Sakic would ultimately agree to Ekholm, a 1st, and Fiala, I'd do it.

 

[herzausstein]

Trade Ekholm, 1st and say carrier for Duchene and a smaller +
Then trade a 3rd or so for Oduya

Pairings shake out (going off the last game)

Oduya Subban
Josi Weber
Irwin Ellis

Leaves us with 3 top notch dmen (2 proven #1s and 1 that is a #2) 2 2nd pairing dmen and 1 Weber/Bitetto who are capable 3rd pairings. Spreading out the main dmen gives the lines more balance and adding duchene would allow for more offense from the forwards

Also fixes our expansion draft protection:
Forwards: Wilson, Jarnkrok, Johansen, Neal, Forsberg, Arvidsson, Duchene
Dmen: Ellis, Josi, Subban
Goalie: Rinne

Exposed to meet requirements
Forward: Smith
Dman: Irwin
Goalie: Mazanec

and try to nudge LV to take Smith. Both Smith and Wilson have similar PPGs in the regular season but Wilson has a much higher PPG in the playoffs. Throw in that i personally believe smith would be easier to replace and he cost more money.

Roll into the playoffs with
Arvidsson Johansen Neal
Forsberg Duchene Smith/Jarnkrok
Wilson Fisher Smith/Jarkrok
McCleod Fiddler Sissons/Watson/Salomaki

And next season with
Arvidsson Johansen Neal
Forsberg Duchene Fiala
Wilson Jarnkrok Kamanev/UFA Pickup or smith if he isn't picked up by vegas
McCleod Sissons Watson/Salomaki/Zoltanerchuck