Confirmed with Link: Duchene to OTT in three-team trade

[JimmySpaetzle]

Fire Randy Lee and make Duchene assistant GM.

Melnyk approves of your cost saving idea

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

My favourite part of that interview, and I loved the whole thing, was hearing him say that after talking with PD in his exit interview he felt that management and he were on the same page with regards to the direction of the franchise.

In my opinion that's big, and quite likely means that it's in line with what we all want. To have him come on the radio right after and be as stoked as he is should tell us something.

I like being positive and hopeful obviously, but I get the strong feeling that we're going to extend Duchene, EK, and Stone this summer. Hearing him be so excited has made me excited!

Is there a clip of this interview

 

[Ice-Tray]

Is there a clip of this interview

Yeah the link was posted earlier in the thread, last page or something.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Its really bad. I dunno what else has to happen for anyone to admit that. The team just finished 30th overall, has long term commitments financially to some really awful hockey players, we traded away a first round pick for a guy who we only have signed for one more year, our 3 best players all need new contracts and it does not appear we will be able to financially compensate all of them. Again, we're the 30th overall team and we won't even be able to keep the actual good players on our team.

We signed one of the worst general managers in the league to a three year extension and he's working on trading the best player who's ever suited up for the team to save the owner money. That terrible manager seems set on bringing back one of the worst coaches in the NHL.

Like, how could it honestly be any worse than this? This team is on track to suck for a very very long time.

Well I think it's safe to say that yours is the absolute furthest negative on the "being a fan of the Ottawa Senators" spectrum.

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

Why do you think Duchene will settle for 7-7.5M? This isn't 2008. Anze Kopitar signed an 8 year 80M contract last year. Stamkos 8 year 68M (8.5 AAV)Getzlaf's contract signed in 2013 was 8 years 66M (8.25M AAV). Ryan Johansen's new deal is 8 years 64M (8M AAV), that deal has a RFA year. Giroux in 2014 was 8 years 66M. Draisaitl 8 years 68M, that's with 4 RFA years! David Backes 5 years 30M (6M AAV).

Watch whatever Stastny and Tavares get this summer, then pick a number in between their AAVs. It won't be 7M. It will be between 8 and 13M.

Really don't get what's complicated about this for people here. 7M isn't the going rate for #1Cs and hasn't been for nearly a decade. 7M is closer to 2nd C money.

So you're comparing the future contract of Matt Duchene to Kopitar, Getzlaf, Stamkos, Giroux and Tavares (future)... all who are superstar center's with history's of being near elite... just an FYI, they are not comparable players.

IMO Johansen and Draisaitl are both overpaid and didn't deserve big money at the time their deals were signed. They both also had better seasons leading up to their newly signed deals which gave them more leverage. LOL at the Backes comparison... So all things considered, you could argue that Johansen's contact would be the best comparable and 8x8 mil is still MUCH better than 9-11 mil... Stastny is also a recently traded UFA to be while Duchene is signed for 1 more year and enjoys it here in Ottawa, so different situations. Your comparable's suck and so does your negativity for things that haven't happened yet...

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

So you're comparing the future contract of Matt Duchene to Kopitar, Getzlaf, Stamkos, Giroux and Tavares (future)... all who are superstar center's with history's of being near elite... just an FYI, they are not comparable players.

IMO Johansen and Draisaitl are both overpaid and didn't deserve big money at the time their deals were signed. They both also had better seasons leading up to their newly signed deals which gave them more leverage. LOL at the Backes comparison... So all things considered, you could argue that Johansen's contact would be the best comparable and 8x8 mil is still MUCH better than 9-11 mil... Stastny is also a recently traded UFA to be while Duchene is signed for 1 more year and enjoys it here in Ottawa, so different situations. Your comparable's suck and so does your negativity for things that haven't happened yet...

Wow. This is pretty bonkers. I won't bother addressing it but I'll leave you with a bit of food for thought regarding the bolded.

These are the stat lines of Duchene in 2017-2018 and Ryan Johansen in 2016-17, guess which one is which:
82GP 14 goals 61points
82GP 27 goals 59 points

Which one had the better season?

 

[Shruggs Peterson]

Yea those comparable contacts are all over the map in terms of the players skill level and roles on their respective teams. If we're looking at someone for a comparable, I'd look at Logan Couture and his situation in San Jose. Signed to the same cap hit as Duchene, put up similar numbers this year and both of their deals expire at the end of next year. The Sharks have decisions to make with Joe Thornton, Evander Kane at the end of this year and Joe Pavelski will need a new deal before the end of next year as well. If they don't retain either of Jumbo Joe or Kane then resigning Couture and Pavelski become essential this summer, or it could be that case anyways. Ideally Couture gets a deal before Duchene and that would be the closest imo to what Duchene may command.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Yea those comparable contacts are all over the map in terms of the players skill level and roles on their respective teams. If we're looking at someone for a comparable, I'd look at Logan Couture and his situation in San Jose. Signed to the same cap hit as Duchene, put up similar numbers this year and both of their deals expire at the end of next year. The Sharks have decisions to make with Joe Thornton, Evander Kane at the end of this year and Joe Pavelski will need a new deal before the end of next year as well. If they don't retain either of Jumbo Joe or Kane then resigning Couture and Pavelski become essential this summer, or it could be that case anyways. Ideally Couture gets a deal before Duchene and that would be the closest imo to what Duchene may command.

Sure. I think Duchene is better though. You need to look at the deals #1Cs are signing recently, that's what I did.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

You also have to look at his point production the last few years. 55-59-41-59 over the last 4 seasons.

He should be paid as a 50-60 point guy, no matter how nifty he looked over the last 40 games.

 

[SAK11]

His interview was fantastic, he's in love with the game and wants to win more than anything else.

His knowledge of the organization shows me how much he cares, too. If all he cared about was a payday, he wouldn't take the time to learn about all the young players. He's thinking long term, about how these young guys will make the difference going forward in helping this team win. Heck, I'd like him to join HF, give us positive fans another voice!

Remember with Duchene, his last two contracts have been seen as more than fair for the team. He hasn't been the type to push for every last penny. Give him a fair deal, and he'll sign. Another key of course, is the direction of the team. He wants to win, plain and simple.

I also don't see a reason to compare this the Ryan situation. Every long term deal is a risk. You have to hope for the best and perhaps looks for any indication that the deal will look ugly going forward. With Ryan, he was a winger, more of a complimentary player for a lot of his better years, and a poor skater in a league that continues to get faster. Duchene, though, is a centre [more valuable position], he drives the offense on his line [and has throughout his career], and skates very well. Work ethic is another area where I'd give Duchene an edge.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

If I had to make a guess today on what Duchene signs for, 8x8. Similar signing bonuses to Ryan's contract. I'd hope for the Senators to be able to get him in the low 7's, but that might be a pipe dream.

I don't see him in the same tier as the Kopitar, Getzlaf, and Giroux's of the world. But he is well above the Turris' and Bryan Little's.

Johansen is a solid comparable I think. Another good one might be Ryan O'Reilly who signed for 7.5 with insane signing bonuses. One thing that has to be accounted for, there are no signing bonuses or trade protection in Johansen's deal, which probably brings up his AAV to compensate for that as signing bonuses+trade protection are typically used as part of the overall value proposition to the player.

I'm very curious to see how hard Duchene pushes for a full NMC given how things went down in COL. Being on the block for a year and a half and having to deal with the media circus that came with it must have made a certain impression on him.

 

[Shruggs Peterson]

Sure. I think Duchene is better though. You need to look at the deals #1Cs are signing recently, that's what I did.

Yea I'd agree Duchene is better but you compared him to Selke, Rocket Richard, and point per game #1C's. Duchene is good but he doesn't have those kinds of personal accomplishments.

Couture is the closest comparable because of also the pecking of who will be signed and when. This summer Duchene is #3 on the priority list behind EK and Stone, which is about where Couture is in San Jose. Also the common theme among those deals (with the exception of Backes) is they are all 8 year deals. Are you anticipating Duchene to get 8 years? When the time comes for a new contract, I don't think the Sens offer him that kind of term, could be wrong but I can't see it happening. Both Draisaitl and Johansen are over payments imo but I'd put them as the ceiling for what Duchene would get. Between 7-8.5 is more realistic than 8-13 to me.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Yea I'd agree Duchene is better but you compared him to Selke, Rocket Richard, and point per game #1C's. Duchene is good but he doesn't have those kinds of personal accomplishments.

Couture is the closest comparable because of also the pecking of who will be signed and when. This summer Duchene is #3 on the priority list behind EK and Stone, which is about where Couture is in San Jose. Also the common theme among those deals (with the exception of Backes) is they are all 8 year deals. Are you anticipating Duchene to get 8 years? When the time comes for a new contract, I don't think the Sens offer him that kind of term, could be wrong but I can't see it happening. Both Draisaitl and Johansen are over payments imo but I'd put them as the ceiling for what Duchene would get. Between 7-8.5 is more realistic than 8-13 to me.

Well if 7 or 8 years term isn't on the table, you're not extending Duchene. That's a simple one. All the top Cs in the league are getting 8 year deals and that's the only way we're keeping that deal down in the 8M range.

The big measuring stick will be Tavares this summer. That will set the market for 1Cs around the league going forward. We already have Eichel at 10M and McDavid at 12.5M as guys with RFA years he can use in negotiations as high end comparables. Turris and Little as lower end (1B) ones.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

If I had to make a guess today on what Duchene signs for, 8x8. Similar signing bonuses to Ryan's contract. I'd hope for the Senators to be able to get him in the low 7's, but that might be a pipe dream.

I don't see him in the same tier as the Kopitar, Getzlaf, and Giroux's of the world. But he is well above the Turris' and Bryan Little's.

Johansen is a solid comparable I think. Another good one might be Ryan O'Reilly who signed for 7.5 with insane signing bonuses. One thing that has to be accounted for, there are no signing bonuses or trade protection in Johansen's deal, which probably brings up his AAV to compensate for that as signing bonuses+trade protection are typically used as part of the overall value proposition to the player.

I'm very curious to see how hard Duchene pushes for a full NMC given how things went down in COL. Being on the block for a year and a half and having to deal with the media circus that came with it must have made a certain impression on him.

I think this is realistic. 8x8 with a full NMC could work for both sides. O'Reilly is a nice comparable as well, but I can't see Melnyk agreeing to that type of bonus structure.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

You also have to look at his point production the last few years. 55-59-41-59 over the last 4 seasons.

He should be paid as a 50-60 point guy, no matter how nifty he looked over the last 40 games.

Yeah, but what happens if negotiations start next year and we're 20 games in and he's scoring at a PPG again? I don't think we can in good faith call him a 50-60 point guy at that point.

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

Wow. This is pretty bonkers. I won't bother addressing it but I'll leave you with a bit of food for thought regarding the bolded.

These are the stat lines of Duchene in 2017-2018 and Ryan Johansen in 2016-17, guess which one is which:
82GP 14 goals 61points
82GP 27 goals 59 points

Which one had the better season?

Johansen's stats for 3 years previous to new deal:
2014-15: 82GP 26G - 71P
2015-16: 80GP 14G - 60P
2016-17: 82GP 14G - 61P

Draisaitl's stats for 2 previous years to new deal:
2015-16: 72GP 19G - 51P
2016-17: 82GP 29G - 77P
and this year: 78GP 25G - 70P

DUCHENE's stats for 4 previous years to new deal:
2014-15: 82GP 21 G - 55P
2015-16: 76GP 30G - 59P
2016-17: 77GP 18G - 41P
2017-18: 82GP 27G - 59P

HOPEFULLY, you start to see the difference between these players and the circumstances under which they signed their new deals. Plus Chiarelli is an idiot and signed Draisaitl to a deal he thought would be a steal in 2-3 years from now, which still could be imo. Johansen was/is a consistent 60 point player that the Preds needed to resign (since they gave up Seth Jones) and is still the best comparable BUT that doesn't guarantee ANYTHING. Your other superstar comparable's were laughable and yet you exclude them this time around hmmm.........

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I think this is realistic. 8x8 with a full NMC could work for both sides. O'Reilly is a nice comparable as well, but I can't see Melnyk agreeing to that type of bonus structure.

I think he'll get a similar bonus structure to Ryan. Just enough to make him buyout proof.

In O'Reilly's case, he was clearly a mercenary in that getting the best possible contract seemed to be his top priority. While, I doubt Duchene is going to do us too many favours, I get the vibe that he likes being somewhere that he is valued, and that he wants to stay in Ottawa.

8 x 8, 2M per season of bonuses, full NMC would be my guess. If he signs for any less than that, I'd be thrilled.

I think Duchene, and Karlsson (If we don't trade him) will be the only players we give out full NMCs to for a very long time. (Ryan's is a NMC with a modified NTC, not a full NMC).

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Johansen's stats for 3 years previous to new deal:
2014-15: 82GP 26G - 71P
2015-16: 80GP 14G - 60P
2016-17: 82GP 14G - 61P

Draisaitl's stats for 2 previous years to new deal:
2015-16: 72GP 19G - 51P
2016-17: 82GP 29G - 77P
and this year: 78GP 25G - 70P

DUCHENE's stats for 4 previous years to new deal:
2014-15: 82GP 21 G - 55P
2015-16: 76GP 30G - 59P
2016-17: 77GP 18G - 41P
2017-18: 82GP 27G - 59P

HOPEFULLY, you start to see the difference between these players and the circumstances under which they signed their new deals. Plus Chiarelli is an idiot and signed Draisaitl to a deal he thought would be a steal in 2-3 years from now, which still could be imo. Johansen was/is a consistent 60 point player that the Preds needed to resign (since they gave up Seth Jones) and is still the best comparable BUT that doesn't guarantee ANYTHING. Your other superstar comparable's were laughable and yet you exclude them this time around hmmm.........

Soooo, are you agreeing with me that he'll sign a similar deal to these two or are you immune to numbers and stats?

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Soooo, are you agreeing with me that he'll sign a similar deal to these two or are you immune to numbers and stats?

Those players are signed for the duration of their prime. Technically Duchene is probably past his.

That has to come in to play. Duchene is a 2nd overall pick who's career high is 70 points and that was in his second season which was 5 years ago.

 

[Hale The Villain]

His interview was fantastic, he's in love with the game and wants to win more than anything else.

I certainly hope not.

If Karlsson leaves this team is in for a rough ride over the next 2-3YRs.

If winning is all that matters to Duchene, I don't think he re-signs in Ottawa.

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

Soooo, are you agreeing with me that he'll sign a similar deal to these two or are you immune to numbers and stats?

It was always a possibility but just because 1 similar player received a certain deal doesn't mean the other player, in a different city/situation will get the same thing. And okay let's ignore the way you started off your hyperbolic comparison.. or are you immune to common sense/self reflection?

Either way you're making it seem like its a guarantee that Duchene will get 9+, Stone 9-10+ and Karlsson 12-13+ and that the world/Ottawa is imploding because of it....

If Stone and Duchene are signed for 7-8 years at 7-8 Mil per its a win. If Karlsson signs at 9-11 Mil per its a win. If the Sens manage to get rid/buyout Ryan afterwards, then we literally have nothing to worry about. You're just too negative when commenting anything Sens and I know we have a lot to be pissy about lately but you're no agent.. no expert. You just come off as whiny, like a toddler who doesn't get their treat while grocery shopping with mom.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

It was always a possibility but just because 1 similar player received a certain deal doesn't mean the other player, in a different city/situation will get the same thing. And okay let's ignore the way you started off your hyperbolic comparison.. or are you immune to common sense/self reflection?

Either way you're making it seem like its a guarantee that Duchene will get 9+, Stone 9-10+ and Karlsson 12-13+ and that the world/Ottawa is imploding because of it....

If Stone and Duchene are signed for 7-8 years at 7-8 Mil per its a win. If Karlsson signs at 9-11 Mil per its a win. If the Sens manage to get rid/buyout Ryan afterwards, then we literally have nothing to worry about. You're just too negative when commenting anything Sens lately and I know we have a lot to be pissy about lately but you're no agent.. no expert. You just come off as whiny, like a toddler who doesn't get their treat while grocery shopping with mom.

I'm down for all that, I just don't think its particularly realistic. Even at those deals where those guys are leaving money on the table, it still puts us way over our internal cap. Someone is getting sacrificed.

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

I'm down for all that, I just don't think its particularly realistic. Even at those deals where those guys are leaving money on the table, it still puts us way over our internal cap. Someone is getting sacrificed.

Okay perfect, let the sacrificial lambs be Smith, Ceci, Pyatt, Pageau, Burrows, Anderson, Condon, Gaborik or Ryan. Dorion will just have to get creative in the way he makes room but it's certainly possible. In no way does trading Karlsson, Duchene or Stone, because we can't afford them under our internal cap, makes us a better hockey team... meaning a higher chance Hughes lands in Colorado. I'm sure Sens management are very aware of the latter.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Okay perfect, let the sacrificial lambs be Smith, Ceci, Pyatt, Pageau, Burrows, Anderson, Condon, Gaborik or Ryan. Dorion will just have to get creative in the way he makes room but it's certainly possible. In no way does trading Karlsson, Duchene or Stone, because we can't afford them under our internal cap, makes us a better hockey team... meaning a higher chance Hughes lands in Colorado. I'm sure Sens management are very aware of the latter.

Again, I'm with you on all that, but I don't think getting rid of all those guys and their salary will be easy or even possible. We'd have to give a whole lot in terms of draft picks and prospects to entice teams to take on those bad contracts. We already couldn't offload a single one of those those guys at the deadline and we already have seen what one of these dumps looks like from the Gaborik and Phaneuf trade (which could still work out in our favour). Are you gonna be okay with parting with 2nd rounders, Bathersons, Chlapiks and Whites to get rid of the likes of Anderson, Burrows, Ryan and Smith?

Realistically, we might have to part with Hoffman, Pageau and Ceci (latter two you named to be fair, but I value them) to keep our top 3 around while guys like Ryan and Smith stick around. That means, we're probably not gonna be a competitive team until the goalie's contracts end imo. It'll suck but it might be worth it to keep a good core around. There's very few outcomes where I see this team being any good over the next two years. Dorion will have to pull a rabbit out of his hat. Guys like Duchene, Stone and Karlsson know that, will they be okay with sticking around and waiting out all these bad contracts?

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

Again, I'm with you on all that, but I don't think getting rid of all those guys and their salary will be easy or even possible. We'd have to give a whole lot in terms of draft picks and prospects to entice teams to take on those bad contracts. We already couldn't offload a single one of those those guys at the deadline and we already have seen what one of these dumps looks like from the Gaborik and Phaneuf trade (which could still work out in our favour). Are you gonna be okay with parting with 2nd rounders, Bathersons, Chlapiks and Whites to get rid of the likes of Anderson, Burrows, Ryan and Smith?

Realistically, we might have to part with Hoffman, Pageau and Ceci (latter two you named to be fair, but I value them) to keep our top 3 around while guys like Ryan and Smith stick around. That means, we're probably not gonna be a competitive team until the goalie's contracts end imo. It'll suck but it might be worth it to keep a good core around. There's very few outcomes where I see this team being any good over the next two years. Dorion will have to pull a rabbit out of his hat. Guys like Duchene, Stone and Karlsson know that, will they be okay with sticking around and waiting out all these bad contracts?

Wait it out: Burrows, Pyatt (wait these contracts out if no one will take them.. try and dump C level prospects/6-7th rounders, to get it done ex: Perron)
Trade IF needed: Pageau, Smith (I believe that Smith could have been traded at the TDL but PD refused and Pageau is an easy sell if we're doing that)
RFA's to be traded or let go: Ceci, Claesson (F*ck giving Ceci big money and longterm)
UFA's to walk: Paajarvi, Wideman (would like to keep both but if push comes to shove)
Buy-out: Gaborik, Ryan or Anderson (Andy is the least realistic option here)