Speculation: Draft Talk, 2018: Picks 1, 32, 94, 117, 125, 156, 187

[5 Minute Major]

I’d be willing to trade 32 OA for a 2019 1st rounder.

 

[Zip15]

Pronman has Kotkaniemi at #4.

4. Jesperi Kotkaniemi, C, Assat-Liiga
July 6, 2000 | 6-foot-2 | 188 pounds
GP: 57 | Goals: 10 | Points: 29 | Shoots: Left

Skating: 50
Puck Skills: 65
Physical Game: 55
Hockey sense: 60

Kotkaniemi has been a top-six forward for his league team in Finland all season and had a very solid U18 season relative to his historical peers in that league. He was also very good during international competition, albeit being a late cut from Finland’s World Junior Championship team. He played center for Finland and was a winger for his pro team, but he projects as a center. Kotkaniemi has a lot of desirable elements. He has very good hands that are high-end, if not flashing elite. He can make very skilled plays off an entry, but what impresses me is how well he can control the puck and keep plays alive. With his frame and skill, it’s very hard to strip him of possession. He is also a very smart playmaker. Kotkaniemi sees the ice very well and can be the primary guy to set up along the wall on a power play and move the puck around. He understands how to create chances and isn’t afraid to attempt difficult plays. He prefers to make plays, but when he does shoot, I’ve liked his finishing touch. His skating isn’t amazing, but when I’ve seen him, his speed looks fine but his stride is a bit awkward. Defensively he’ll need to improve, like every young player, but I think he’s reasonably fine in that area and has shown he can be relied on at evens as a 17-year-old versus men. He has the best shot of any prospect in this draft class to be a No. 1 center.

Finland’s U18 coach Tommi Niemela said: “He plays the game not like anybody else. He sees the game differently. He tries to make a play in every situation. He sees only upsides, and no downsides, and that’s why his game is sometimes a little bit risky. He’s very skilled.”

More surprisingly, he has Bokk at 8. Eight! I think we can give up the ghost of getting him at 32 - I think he's going top-20, and maybe closer to 15.

Pronman's top-10

1. Dahlin
2. Svechnikov
3. Zadina
4. Kotkaniemi
5. Hughes
6. Wahlstrom
7. Boqvist
8. Bokk
9. Tkachuk
10. Merkley

Other notables: Wilde (16), Bouchard (18), Dobson (20), Smith (21), Farabee (27)

Pronman's 2018 NHL draft rankings: Top 74 prospects

 

[1972]

I don’t love Pronmans list, but I like how he’s consistent from year to year. He really values skill over anything, guys like Marner, Mittelstadt, Nylander etc are always going to be higher then bigger guys with less skill.

 

[1972]

I’d be willing to trade 32 OA for a 2019 1st rounder.

When have we ever seen a trade like that?

Botterill has got to hit on that 32nd pick, there’s no excuse when they have all this time to prepare.

 

[5 Minute Major]

When have we ever seen a trade like that?

Botterill has got to hit on that 32nd pick, there’s no excuse when they have all this time to prepare.

I didn’t know I had to do research before posting that.

I’ll throw it back at you. How many GM’s hit on a 32 overall pick?

 

[DJN21]

When have we ever seen a trade like that?

Botterill has got to hit on that 32nd pick, there’s no excuse when they have all this time to prepare.

If the draft happened after free agency I think it' be a smart and frugal move...bet against other teams failing because they want to overpay for a guy they like now...but anything can happen in free agency so I agree it'a out of touch.

 

[Dingo44]

I’d be willing to trade 32 OA for a 2019 1st rounder.

I'm intrigued. If only because I'd love another ticket in the Jack Hughes lottery. Kid's insane.

Maybe 32OA + 2018 4th rounder for 2019 first + 2018 3rd rounder?

 

[Jim Bob]

When have we ever seen a trade like that?

Botterill has got to hit on that 32nd pick, there’s no excuse when they have all this time to prepare.

That trade seems like something that has happened a lot more in the NFL than the NHL.

 

[OkimLom]

I didn’t know I had to do research before posting that.

I’ll throw it back at you. How many GM’s hit on a 32 overall pick?

If we're talking 1st pick of the 2nd round (which is what the 32 overall pick is for this year)

2007 - TJ Brennan
2008 - Jacob Markstrom
2009 - Mikko Koskinen
2010 - Tyler Pitlick
2011 - David Musil
2012 - Oscar Dansk
2013 - Ian McCoshen
2014 - Brendan Lemieux
2015 - Jeremy Roy
2016 - Yegor Korshkov

The most recent success story for the first 2nd rounder probably is Markstrom from recent drafts.

If we're talking 32nd overall:

2007 - Brett MacLean
2008 - Vyacheslav Voynov
2009 - Landon Ferraro
2010 - Jared Knight
2011 - Ty Rattie
2012 - Mitch Moroz
2013 - Chris Bigras
2014 - Jayce Hawryluk
2015 - Christian Fischer
2016 - Tyler Benson

Going back 20 drafts, the most successful 32nd overall pick was Derek Roy.

Neither the first 2nd round pick or 32nd overall pick have a solid track record overall. Even in the stacked drafts.

 

[SundherDome]

If we're talking 1st pick of the 2nd round (which is what the 32 overall pick is for this year)

2007 - TJ Brennan
2008 - Jacob Markstrom
2009 - Mikko Koskinen
2010 - Tyler Pitlick
2011 - David Musil
2012 - Oscar Dansk
2013 - Ian McCoshen
2014 - Brendan Lemieux
2015 - Jeremy Roy
2016 - Yegor Korshkov

The most recent success story for the first 2nd rounder probably is Markstrom from recent drafts.

If we're talking 32nd overall:

2007 - Brett MacLean
2008 - Vyacheslav Voynov
2009 - Landon Ferraro
2010 - Jared Knight
2011 - Ty Rattie
2012 - Mitch Moroz
2013 - Chris Bigras
2014 - Jayce Hawryluk
2015 - Christian Fischer
2016 - Tyler Benson

Going back 20 drafts, the most successful 32nd overall pick was Derek Roy.

Neither the first 2nd round pick or 32nd overall pick have a solid track record overall. Even in the stacked drafts.

Problem is, most (not all) of the teams drafting there suck ass and have shitty scouts. If a team like Nashville saw a guy like Barbashev, O'Reilly or Aho sitting there they might see the value in moving their first next year for 32 and something very small.

 

[truthbluth]

Pronman has Kotkaniemi at #4.



More surprisingly, he has Bokk at 8. Eight! I think we can give up the ghost of getting him at 32 - I think he's going top-20, and maybe closer to 15.

Pronman's top-10

1. Dahlin
2. Svechnikov
3. Zadina
4. Kotkaniemi
5. Hughes
6. Wahlstrom
7. Boqvist
8. Bokk
9. Tkachuk
10. Merkley

Other notables: Wilde (16), Bouchard (18), Dobson (20), Smith (21), Farabee (27)

Pronman's 2018 NHL draft rankings: Top 74 prospects

Pretty sure Pronman had Tolavenen, Vesalainen and Kostin top 10 last year. Somebody could still slip.

 

[Tatanka]

Problem is, most (not all) of the teams drafting there suck ass and have ****ty scouts. If a team like Nashville saw a guy like Barbashev, O'Reilly or Aho sitting there they might see the value in moving their first next year for 32 and something very small.

A few key injuries and that team that trades away a 1st could be giving away a top 3 pick. Not likely.

 

[5 Minute Major]

If we're talking 1st pick of the 2nd round (which is what the 32 overall pick is for this year)

2007 - TJ Brennan
2008 - Jacob Markstrom
2009 - Mikko Koskinen
2010 - Tyler Pitlick
2011 - David Musil
2012 - Oscar Dansk
2013 - Ian McCoshen
2014 - Brendan Lemieux
2015 - Jeremy Roy
2016 - Yegor Korshkov

The most recent success story for the first 2nd rounder probably is Markstrom from recent drafts.

If we're talking 32nd overall:

2007 - Brett MacLean
2008 - Vyacheslav Voynov
2009 - Landon Ferraro
2010 - Jared Knight
2011 - Ty Rattie
2012 - Mitch Moroz
2013 - Chris Bigras
2014 - Jayce Hawryluk
2015 - Christian Fischer
2016 - Tyler Benson

Going back 20 drafts, the most successful 32nd overall pick was Derek Roy.

Neither the first 2nd round pick or 32nd overall pick have a solid track record overall. Even in the stacked drafts.

Good job, Matie.

So saying Botterill must hit on that pick is a little over the top and, in fact, history shows that if we can get a first round pick or useful player in a trade for that pick, that would be the wise move.

 

[dotcommunism]

I'm not sure that the history of a specific pick number, rather than a range of picks, means much of anything once you get to that point of the draft.

 

[Jim Bob]

https://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144

What I did was pull out every single draft pick from 2000-2009 (a 10-year span) based on the round they were selected, and binned the players into two groups: players who managed to log at least 50 career games at the NHL level (a reasonable way to identify players who, at worst, became replacement level NHL talent), and players who managed to log 0-49 NHL games at the NHL level (our way to identify a ‘failed’ draft pick).

How does the data shake out by round?

A second round pick has a less than a 50% chance of turning into a player that plays at least 50 NHL games.

There are impact players available in the second round every few years. But, that isn't an every year thing and certainly isn't something that even teams with good draft records do on a consistent basis.

 

[Chainshot]

Interesting to see Pronman has Mascherin at 45.

 

[jBuds]

Would love to see some updates of your personal draft boards of the 4-20 range of guys. Knowing who we are taking, I’m wondering how you see everyone else now without having to try and imagine them specifically as Sabre property or adapt to any hovering narratives or things of the like.

 

[MagnumForce2]

If we're talking 1st pick of the 2nd round (which is what the 32 overall pick is for this year)

2007 - TJ Brennan
2008 - Jacob Markstrom
2009 - Mikko Koskinen
2010 - Tyler Pitlick
2011 - David Musil
2012 - Oscar Dansk
2013 - Ian McCoshen
2014 - Brendan Lemieux
2015 - Jeremy Roy
2016 - Yegor Korshkov

The most recent success story for the first 2nd rounder probably is Markstrom from recent drafts.

If we're talking 32nd overall:

2007 - Brett MacLean
2008 - Vyacheslav Voynov
2009 - Landon Ferraro
2010 - Jared Knight
2011 - Ty Rattie
2012 - Mitch Moroz
2013 - Chris Bigras
2014 - Jayce Hawryluk
2015 - Christian Fischer
2016 - Tyler Benson

Going back 20 drafts, the most successful 32nd overall pick was Derek Roy.

Neither the first 2nd round pick or 32nd overall pick have a solid track record overall. Even in the stacked drafts.

Ouch...Maybe we should trade down to pick 33.

 

[MagnumForce2]

Interesting to see Pronman has Mascherin at 45.

I am surprised no one has made an offer for him....at least to my knowledge.

 

[Chainshot]

I am surprised no one has made an offer for him....at least to my knowledge.

No one is paying what the Panthers apparently asked which was a third.

 

[1972]

I’d take Artyom Minulin as a mid round pick.

 

[Chainshot]

I’d take Artyom Minulin as a mid round pick.

He's Sissons partner right? 19?

 

[1972]

He's Sissons partner right? 19?

Ya he’s a 19 year old right D. I don’t know much about him, just like his size and vision so far.

 

[LetsDoughBuffalo]

Kotkaniemi is the most underrated player in the draft this year. If I were Carolina/Montreal... I’d have a tough time passing...

I really liked him at the U18's

Size and skill in the middle

Agree that if they truly invested in a centreman, I can see Montreal picking him at #3

 

[OkimLom]

Ouch...Maybe we should trade down to pick 33.

I’ll do pick #33 tomorrow hahahaha