In the last 25 years...
Teams who have not received a 1st or 2nd OA:
- Arizona
- Calgary
- Dallas
- Detroit
- Minnesota
- San Jose
- Vegas
In the same time frame, teams who have received 3 or more 1st or 2nd OA:
- Buffalo
- Edmonton
- Pittsburgh
- New Jersey
- Tampa Bay
- Winnipeg/Atlanta
Not rigged but there is a significant disparity in haves and have nots. Since the draft so significantly effects the fates of franchises, there should be more built into the system as the "randomness" of the current system is favoring some teams over others.
The lottery rules were different between 1995-2012, and then 2013-15, then 2016-21, and now the current funky system since 2022.
To get the #1/2 pick from 1995-2012, a team would have had to finish in the bottom 5-6. The highest Calgary picked in that time frame was 9th a couple times. With the rules from 1995-2012, the worst team had close to a 50/50 chance of retaining the first pick and could only get bumped down to #2. The Coyotes only had a couple picks in the top 5 in that span.
Pittsburgh: 2004 (worst team, bumped to #2), 2005 (got lucky for Crosby), 2006 (second worst team)
Edmonton: 2010 (worst team), 2011 (worst team), 2012 (second worst)
Tampa Bay: 1998 (worst team, actually lost lottery but Phil Esposito made a deadline deal to acquire extra odds to retain #1), 2008 (worst team), 2009 (second worst team)
They did build in more randomness after Edmonton's 2010-12 run. I know the league wanted to draw for the top 3 spots starting in 2015, but Buffalo successfully lobbied for them to wait a year (since Buffalo was already in process of guaranteeing themselves McDavid or Eichel).
Devils have had an inordinate amount of luck. Won the 2011 lottery from the #8 spot, 2017 lottery from #6 spot, the 2019 lottery from the #3 spot, and moved up in the 2022 lottery from the #5 spot.
I always wonder if winning the 2011 lottery inadvertently had an adverse effect on the Devils for the 2012 playoffs. New Jersey moved up from #8 to #4 and drafted Adam Larsson in 2011. Devils had veteran Anton Stralman in training camp as a PTO in case Larsson wasn't ready. They ended up keeping Larsson and releasing Stralman. Larsson hit the rookie wall in the second half and only played a handful of playoff games. In his place, journeyman Peter Harrold played in 17 playoff games. If the Devils hadn't won the lottery, they very well might have ended up with Dougie Hamilton (went #9) who would have needed another year in the OHL. Devils then could have kept Stralman who would have been an upgrade over Harrold.