Draft Lottery is it rigged?

[OrrNumber4]

a lot of people think the NBA lotto is rigged.

NBA Draft Lottery 2020: Conspiracy theories that make us wonder if the lottery is rigged by the NBA

This year's draft lottery probably wasn't rigged, but let's revisit some that might have been

www.cbssports.com

A lot of people think that cocoa milk comes from brown cows.

 

[TheBeard]

A lot of people think that cocoa milk comes from brown cows.

I’m merely saying this level of draft conspiracy isn’t just reserved for the NHL.

It says something that people are more likely to create a fictional explanation that something is rigged than accept that an unlucky event occurred.

It’s called statistics!

Anytime you leave something to chance there will be those questioning its legitimacy.

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

No, it’s not rigged. But anyone that thinks that the vast majority of owners aren’t in it predominantly as a financial investment is naive. In other words I do believe most owners would sacrifice some competitiveness if it meant a few extra dollars in their pockets (hence the favorable expansion drafts for Seattle and Vegas).

Except it doesn't. The NHL does not share revenues across teams except for the national TV contracts. Raising the ticket revenue of other teams does not put one more penny in the Sharks revenue.

For all of you who think the draft lottery is rigged to help some teams sell more tickets, then the Sharks are a lock for the upcoming draft lottery. They are way down on ticket sales and attendance. Gifting them Celebrini would raise league revenue more than any other team.

 

[vilpertti]

I voted yes because I thought this was a joke question.

 

[Barrie22]

Except it doesn't. The NHL does not share revenues across teams except for the national TV contracts. Raising the ticket revenue of other teams does not put one more penny in the Sharks revenue.

For all of you who think the draft lottery is rigged to help some teams sell more tickets, then the Sharks are a lock for the upcoming draft lottery. They are way down on ticket sales and attendance. Gifting them Celebrini would raise league revenue more than any other team.

Everything i could find, teams still do revenue sharing in the NHL. And you do realize that financial comes from more places then just tickets right? It's odd but Chicago being better with there financials helps teams like Arizona who in there entire existence has not had 1 season of making money, does not have an actual NHL rink but some how if they sold today would be able to ask for 635 million for the team. Which has gone up by about 500 million since the entire bankruptcy court with blackberry sale.

The only thing owners care about is the team valuations, and those go up by tv deals, sponsorships, merchandise sales, tv viewers.

It's just funny to me that whenever the term generational talent prospects get used there are pretty common teams they go to. Crosby to Pittsburgh a team going through bankruptcy that needed something yo save it. McDavid to Edmonton storied Canadian market that was in termoil. Mathews to the biggest/2nd biggest Canadian market that hasn't won in forever. MacKinnon to Colorado, and now Bedard to Chicago.

 

[OrrNumber4]

It's just funny to me that whenever the term generational talent prospects get used there are pretty common teams they go to.

Nope, you're just hypothesis shopping.

McDavid to Edmonton storied Canadian market that was in termoil.

The league would have been much better off had Mcdavid gone to the Rangers/Flyers/Bruins/Red Wings.

Mathews to the biggest/2nd biggest Canadian market that hasn't won in forever.

Aren't Canadian revenues tapped out?

MacKinnon to Colorado, and now Bedard to Chicago.

Mackinnon wasn't even a generational-level prospect at the time. He really grew into it.

 

[Barrie22]

Nope, you're just hypothesis shopping.

The league would have been much better off had Mcdavid gone to the Rangers/Flyers/Bruins/Red Wings.

Aren't Canadian revenues tapped out?

Mackinnon wasn't even a generational-level prospect at the time. He really grew into it.

He was seen as the same level as crosby basically his entire junior career and before. His NHL career just started slow.

 

[Sharkz4Fun]

Whether it's rigged or not, it really is beyond baffling that people consistently say "There's so much at risk for these companies! Why would they EVER do that?" Like, to have that much blind faith in people is one thing, but to not realize stuff like that happens on such higher scales in other facets of the world is another. The difference between a place like Chicago getting Bedard vs. Columbus is probably hundreds of millions a difference if not higher in the long run, and that's just once instance.

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

Everything i could find, teams still do revenue sharing in the NHL. And you do realize that financial comes from more places then just tickets right? It's odd but Chicago being better with there financials helps teams like Arizona who in there entire existence has not had 1 season of making money, does not have an actual NHL rink but some how if they sold today would be able to ask for 635 million for the team. Which has gone up by about 500 million since the entire bankruptcy court with blackberry sale.

The only thing owners care about is the team valuations, and those go up by tv deals, sponsorships, merchandise sales, tv viewers.

It's just funny to me that whenever the term generational talent prospects get used there are pretty common teams they go to. Crosby to Pittsburgh a team going through bankruptcy that needed something yo save it. McDavid to Edmonton storied Canadian market that was in termoil. Mathews to the biggest/2nd biggest Canadian market that hasn't won in forever. MacKinnon to Colorado, and now Bedard to Chicago.

There is some small revenue sharing from high revenue teams to low ones, but those payments are small compared to game revenues from tickets, boxes, concessions, and parking which are not shared at all. The national TV revenue is shared, but again it is not a big source of revenue for teams (an is better for the Canadian teams as their national contracts pay more per team compared to the US contracts). Game day revenue is still the largest portion of NHL revenues.

Compare this to the NFL. The national TV contracts are the largest source of revenue and are shared equally. Ticket revenue is split 50-50 between the two teams. There is a reason some call it "the National Socialist Football League."

 

[TheBeard]

The league would have been much better off had Mcdavid gone to the Rangers/Flyers/Bruins/Red Wings

Of those 4 only the flyers and bruins were eligible for the lottery and Boston had a 1% chance.

 

[landshark]

There we go, straight from the horse's mouth...

 

[DustyDangler]

The lottery itself is not rigged though the inequitable application of organizational discipline by the NHL has rigged elements.

However, if the objective for the draft lottery was to discourage teams from tanking, it has failed and should thus be ended.

 

[stator]

Raising the ticket revenue of other teams does not put one more penny in the Sharks revenue.

Doesn't the visiting team take a share of the ticket revenue?

 

[DG93]

It probably actually isn't, but it sure f***ing feels like it is a lot of the time, so the memeing is worth it lol

 

[hohosaregood]

The NY area has won like 7 of the last 10 lotteries. Definitely rigged

 

[Play]

The probability is extremely low given the required coordination, the people who would need to keep quiet about it, the risk/reward ratio, the conflicting incentives, and the lack of anything close to resembling proof.

That’s what she said

 

[The Nemesis]

Everyone knows that the lizard people and the egg council manipulate the draft to serve their nefarious ends.

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

Doesn't the visiting team take a share of the ticket revenue?

I don't think so. I remember Lombardi back in the 90s defending the home team keeping all the ticket revenue with a line about "why should they get any of the money from the tickets we sold?"

Everyone knows that the lizard people and the egg council manipulate the draft to serve their nefarious ends.

Actually, it's the Stonecutters...

 

[Skeksis25]

I would think if anything the NHL would rather have every team be competitive and selling more tickets, getting higher local ratings etc. Surely that is beneficial to their bottom line more than having just a handful of teams be loaded?

 

[Sanderson]

It's just funny to me that whenever the term generational talent prospects get used there are pretty common teams they go to. Crosby to Pittsburgh a team going through bankruptcy that needed something yo save it. McDavid to Edmonton storied Canadian market that was in termoil. Mathews to the biggest/2nd biggest Canadian market that hasn't won in forever. MacKinnon to Colorado, and now Bedard to Chicago.

The NHL purposefully changed the lottery due to all the whining about Edmonton getting multiple first overalls, it was only that change which ended up giving McDavid to the Oilers, so that is a really bad example.

MacKinnon was never deemed to be a generational talent, and most definately not considered to be on one level with Crosby while in juniors. Since Crosby only two prospect were put on his level as a prospect, McDavid and Bedard. Even Matthews wasn't.

The arguments you made for all these teams can be made in exactly the same way about pretty much every team. Plenty of teams haven't won in forever. There was nothing unusual about Colorado getting a first overall, and Chicago just came off a highly successful run that led to three Cup-wins so there was little reason to "help them".

A lottery is a lottery, it doesn't take into consideration whether teams "deserve" to get something, or whether a team had success in the recent past.

 

[Sharkz4Fun]

I would think if anything the NHL would rather have every team be competitive and selling more tickets, getting higher local ratings etc. Surely that is beneficial to their bottom line more than having just a handful of teams be loaded?

No. The Rangers are worth 2.65b and the Jackets are worth 765m. The Jackets sell quite a few tickets too. It's simply just how the world works, some locations are more important than others. They'd much rather keep pumping the highest value teams because that's where the money is, not in the penny stocks like the Jackets and Coyotes.

You underestimate how much merch and simply eyes on screens matter.

 

[The Nemesis]

The NHL purposefully changed the lottery due to all the whining about Edmonton getting multiple first overalls, it was only that change which ended up giving McDavid to the Oilers, so that is a really bad example.

MacKinnon was never deemed to be a generational talent, and most definately not considered to be on one level with Crosby while in juniors. Since Crosby only two prospect were put on his level as a prospect, McDavid and Bedard. Even Matthews wasn't.

The arguments you made for all these teams can be made in exactly the same way about pretty much every team. Plenty of teams haven't won in forever. There was nothing unusual about Colorado getting a first overall, and Chicago just came off a highly successful run that led to three Cup-wins so there was little reason to "help them".

A lottery is a lottery, it doesn't take into consideration whether teams "deserve" to get something, or whether a team had success in the recent past.

This. The human brain is great at recognizing patterns and connecting dots. So great that it has no problem connecting a bunch of dots that don't belong together, seeing a picture in what it's made, and assuming that because they see the picture it was intended to be there. The fact that there are legends, myths, folktales, or just cultural memes about the man/rabbit on the moon or that face on Mars or Jesus in a grilled cheese sandwich are a testament to that. It's why the Rorschach Test is a thing. We see patterns through the noise, but our brain will also trick us into thinking the noise itself is a pattern.

If the Sharks had won last year there would've been a ton of theories about how this was a make-good for getting screwed out of Lindros, or the league helping one of its marquee expansion success stories out of a hole (with the less charitable interpretation being that they need to do that before the market craters and demonstrates that sunbelt expansion still only makes fickle fairweather fans thereby disproving the idea that expansion has really done anything to grow hockey into the fabric of anywhere that's not a traditional market), or that this was to reinvigorate the Battle of California as one of its new iconic rivalries or pick your conspiracy theory of choice.

The fact that like 30% of people responding to this poll think the lottery is rigged is hilarious. Even if half of those "yes" votes are sarcastic, joking "for the culture" type votes, that's still funny in a "I laugh so I don't think too hard about the larger consequences of people earnestly embracing the 'logic' necessary to believe that nonsense" sort of way.

 

[TheBeard]

If the Sharks had won last year there would've been a ton of theories about how this was a make-good for getting screwed out of Lindros

Literally no one would have said this.

A majority of HF posters hadn't even been born yet when that happened.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Literally no one would have said this.

A majority of HF posters hadn't even been born yet when that happened.

That's true; people are unable to invoke things that happened before they were born. It's unfortunate that there's no compendium of past events that one could learn or study from.

 

[The Nemesis]

Literally no one would have said this.

A majority of HF posters hadn't even been born yet when that happened.

If that's the case then almost every single Leafs fan in existence must be in their late 50s or older given how we do not ever hear the end of how the Leafs haven't won a cup since 1967.