Draft Lottery is it rigged?

[TheBeard]

If that's the case then almost every single Leafs fan in existence must be in their late 50s or older given how we do not ever hear the end of how the Leafs haven't won a cup since 1967.

Yeah but they know it's just incompetence. A conspiracy claiming the sharks won a lottery because of something that happened 33 years ago is dumb considering they very well could have done it in 2015

That's true; people are unable to invoke things that happened before they were born. It's unfortunate that there's no compendium of past events that one could learn or study from.

How many posters here do you think know anything about that draft outside of Lindros demanding a trade out of Quebec?

 

[cheechoo]

I think there's actually a better chance that it is conspired than not, but even then so, it would be in Bettman's best interest to give us a superstar with homegrown ties for the storylines.

The jerseys that would sell. The attendance that would skyrocket. The eyes and pull it would bring to the Sharks once again. This market is extremely lucrative, you can see either via our dominating sister sports, or the sellout streaks we've historically amassed.

I can think in recent history of Adam Silver giving the Pelicans Zion and the Grizzlies Morant in the lottery over the Knicks a few years ago when maybe more linear thinking would conclude Zion -> Big Apple = match made in heaven. Whether we have our tin foil hats on or not, it was just a more profitable decision for the league to hand those two struggling markets a lifeline.

The Knicks (|The Blackhawks) will be alright and they've already gotten their guy.

There are diminishing returns to intentionally choose to give him to Chicago to be a robin as opposed to us; A sleeping giant crying out for a beacon of light.

 

[Cas]

A conspiracy claiming the sharks won a lottery because of something that happened 33 years ago is dumb considering they very well could have done it in 2015

I believe that's The Nemesis' point.

 

[TheBeard]

I believe that's The Nemesis' point.

There’s a million more plausible conspiracies as to why Chicago won than the sharks/Lindros one.

 

[Cas]

There’s a million more plausible conspiracies as to why Chicago won than the sharks/Lindros one.

Not really, in all honesty. They're all dumb conspiracy theories reliant on paranoia and magical thinking, without an inkling of support. There's not much sense in trying to grade the various conspiracy theories by relative plausibility.

 

[TheBeard]

Not really, in all honesty. They're all dumb conspiracy theories reliant on paranoia and magical thinking, without an inkling of support. There's not much sense in trying to grade the various conspiracy theories by relative plausibility.

I’m not disagreeing, however its a lot more understandable why people would believe in a theory surrounding Chicago and Bedard, with them being a major market original 6 team coming off a dynasty and trying to distance itself from the stink of a very ugly sexual abuse case than SJ getting their due from not drafting Lindros 30 years ago.

 

[CanadienShark]

No.

 

[The Nemesis]

Yeah but they know it's just incompetence. A conspiracy claiming the sharks won a lottery because of something that happened 33 years ago is dumb considering they very well could have done it in 2015


How many posters here do you think know anything about that draft outside of Lindros demanding a trade out of Quebec?

Conspiracy theories are built on dumb stuff. That's kind of how they work.

 

[karltonian]

I mean, do they weigh the balls publicly?

 

[CupfortheSharks]

I mean, do they weigh the balls publicly?

I never do that.

 

[The Nemesis]

I’m not disagreeing, however its a lot more understandable why people would believe in a theory surrounding Chicago and Bedard, with them being a major market original 6 team coming off a dynasty and trying to distance itself from the stink of a very ugly sexual abuse case than SJ getting their due from not drafting Lindros 30 years ago.

I never said it was just that. I said that was one possible explanation. It could also be that the Sharks are often touted as an expansion success story, especially among the sunbelt expansion teams of the early/mid 90s and that ensuring that they get a little boost to avoid slipping into the abyss of sucking for several years now keeps them relevant and makes sure that the market/fanbase doesn't crumble and demonstrate that hockey's attempts to play in "non-traditional" markets are a fragile house of cards. Or it could be an attempt to reinvigorate the Battle of California to create a lasting foundation of entertaining rivalry to help drive wider attention. Or it could be a reward for a team that has largely avoided any kind of significant scandal. Or it could be any number of things.

they point is that they are all dumb. Every team in the league has at least one or two dumb storyline possibilities used to lean into the potential for the lottery to be rigged for or against them. The Lindros thing is not really any dumber than most if not all of those reasons for the Sharks or around the league because every single one of them is stupid and a symptom of desperate fans who need to see meaning in the chaos to find comfort because the idea that a cold impartial universe doesn't give one iota of a crap about anything other than the cold hard hand of probability scares the bejeebus out of them.

Besides, you want to make that stupid Lindros theory sound even halfway plausible? After their initial expansion blues (and the fact that the lottery didn't debut for 2 more years after their first draft) the sharks went on an unprecedented run of team success that positioned them outside of ever being considered for lottery opportunities. From the first lottery draft (1995) onward the Sharks picked in the top 5 four times in 30 years (netting Andrei Zyuzin, Patrick Marleau, and Brad Stuart in a 3-year run from 96-98 and Will Smith last year). And in the lottery like maybe 9 or 10 times if you count the couple of points at which they had acquired a lottery pick in trade (like the Couture one) or were gifted broader odds because of lockout chicanery (the Crosby lottery of 05 that landed them at 12 before jumping to 8 for Setoguchi). And for a long stretch of years in there they wouldn't have been able to claim the #1 pick with a lottery win becuase there's only been about 8 years of lottery history where any non-playoff team had a shot at the #1 pick (2013-2021) which would've meant that it was literally impossible for the Sharks to slot all the way up the board to 1 from wherever they started most of the time, thus it's not like there were a lot of times during the bulk of the team's history where the league could easily slide them that #1 ping pong ball or make it worthwhile. Perhaps the repayment would've been for it to happen during a period where it was badly needed, like say right now when the team is in full burn-it-down tank mode and Bedard would've jumpstarted the from-the-ashes resurrection in the shortest possible time. Yes, it's complete BS and sounds ludicrous when you spell it out. But that's the point. It's all ludicrous. The fact that this is even a conversation at all is extremely ludicrous (and I don't mean specifically with you. I just mean that we're talking about the draft being rigged with even the slightest shred of sincerity)

 

[karltonian]

I never do that.

 

[Le Rosbeef]

Of course it isn't.

The bigger worry is that 14 of you so far think it is. Good lord...

 

[OrrNumber4]

Of course it isn't.

The bigger worry is that 14 of you so far think it is. Good lord...

Certainly. Some posters that I thought well of are part of that group, and it makes me think that I was wrong about them.

 

[Pavelski2112]

Certainly. Some posters that I thought well of are part of that group, and it makes me think that I was wrong about them.

If thinking that a lottery is probably rigged is enough to tarnish your view of them, your view of them probably wasn't very strong to begin with

 

[Brodeur]

Nah, it's just easy to preemptively come up with conspiracy theories. Namely it's either "#1 pick is going to a small market team who is struggling and needs a draw" or "#1 pick is going to a big market team so they can showcase the player."

Although I'll use this as an excuse to tell an amusing story about how Penny Hardaway affected the NHL Draft lottery:

After the Alexandre Daigle debacle, the league and NHLPA agreed to put a draft lottery into the 1995 CBA. But then the league managed to forget to set the rules until the May 1995 GM meetings. By then the regular season was over and some GMs were making arguments out of their own self-interest rather than what was best for the league.

Simultaneously, the Orlando Magic were the #1 seed in the East and en route to an NBA Finals appearance. In 1993, Orlando had improbably won the lottery as the best non-playoff team; They'd later trade down to get Hardaway. In the moment, it seemed that the lottery win had handed them a potential dynasty.

In order to avoid an "Orlando situation" the league eventually set it where the winning team could only move up four spots. This wouldn't change until 2013.

 

[OffSydes]

It could be rigged but saying the NHL or other companies involved would never take the risk is pretty dumb considering what people and corporations have done for money.

Just Google Chiquita and AUC

 

[The Nemesis]

It could be rigged but saying the NHL or other companies involved would never take the risk is pretty dumb considering what people and corporations have done for money.

Just Google Chiquita and AUC

I don't think that it's so much that they won't take the risk because of the risk/reward as much as it is that the risk is a lot larger than you'd think. This is not a few guys in the accounting department cooking the books. This would require them getting the auditing firm that does the lottery draw under their thumb, getting the witnesses who observe the lottery under their thumb, getting all the people involved in setting up the draft process to swear silence, avoiding most of the teams finding out about this for fear that they'd be angered by the fact that some other organizations are reaping rewards they don't etc.

Keeping secrets of hard and keeping secrets becomes exponentially harder for every additional person you need to join in on the process.

 

[DustyDangler]

In the last 25 years...

Teams who have not received a 1st or 2nd OA:

• Arizona
• Calgary
• Dallas
• Detroit
• Minnesota
• San Jose
• Vegas

In the same time frame, teams who have received 3 or more 1st or 2nd OA:

• Buffalo
• Edmonton
• Pittsburgh
• New Jersey
• Tampa Bay
• Winnipeg/Atlanta

Not rigged but there is a significant disparity in haves and have nots. Since the draft so significantly effects the fates of franchises, there should be more built into the system as the "randomness" of the current system is favoring some teams over others.

 

[Sandisfan]

In the last 25 years...

Teams who have not received a 1st or 2nd OA:

• Arizona
• Calgary
• Dallas
• Detroit
• Minnesota
• San Jose
• Vegas

In the same time frame, teams who have received 3 or more 1st or 2nd OA:

• Buffalo
• Edmonton
• Pittsburgh
• New Jersey
• Tampa Bay
• Winnipeg/Atlanta

Not rigged but there is a significant disparity in haves and have nots. Since the draft so significantly effects the fates of franchises, there should be more built into the system as the "randomness" of the current system is favoring some teams over others.

Being a devil's advocate here, in many years, winning the lottery is only mildly important but in years like last year it is very important. So not all lotteries are equal. Also it could be that most lotteries wouldn't be important enough to try something. If you found out that one of the guys on the inside was a trained magician and/or very high level amateur and was a technical guy do you really think that it would be impossible to rig? I am not really (Voted Yes) in the, it's rigged crowd, but I surely don't rule it out. Bedard to Chicago is surely worth more to the league than Anaheim or San Jose or Columbus. The differences in Audience for a Chicago game with Bedard and the Audience for a National Broadcast. Getting Bedard also likely gets the three losers any/more maybe much more on National TV. Rigging one every four or five years would be doable. I would rather Gregor had gotten the Flu during his run though. Sorry Gregor but that's the reality.

 

[OffSydes]

I don't think that it's so much that they won't take the risk because of the risk/reward as much as it is that the risk is a lot larger than you'd think. This is not a few guys in the accounting department cooking the books. This would require them getting the auditing firm that does the lottery draw under their thumb, getting the witnesses who observe the lottery under their thumb, getting all the people involved in setting up the draft process to swear silence, avoiding most of the teams finding out about this for fear that they'd be angered by the fact that some other organizations are reaping rewards they don't etc.

Keeping secrets of hard and keeping secrets becomes exponentially harder for every additional person you need to join in on the process.

I bet they could rig it with not that many people in the know. They could have lower ranking employees involved without knowing it

 

[landshark]

"Ocean's Twenty-Four... Jackin' Macklin and Stackin' Napkins" (they're caterers in this one)

 

[DustyDangler]

Being a devil's advocate here, in many years, winning the lottery is only mildly important but in years like last year it is very important. So not all lotteries are equal. Also it could be that most lotteries wouldn't be important enough to try something. If you found out that one of the guys on the inside was a trained magician and/or very high level amateur and was a technical guy do you really think that it would be impossible to rig? I am not really (Voted Yes) in the, it's rigged crowd, but I surely don't rule it out. Bedard to Chicago is surely worth more to the league than Anaheim or San Jose or Columbus. The differences in Audience for a Chicago game with Bedard and the Audience for a National Broadcast. Getting Bedard also likely gets the three losers any/more maybe much more on National TV. Rigging one every four or five years would be doable. I would rather Gregor had gotten the Flu during his run though. Sorry Gregor but that's the reality.

Not all drafts are equal but...imagine the Caps without Ovechkin, Avs without MacKinnon\Landeskog, Leafs without Matthews, Pittsburgh without Crosby/Malkin, TB without Stamkos/Hedman...these are franchise/league altering events.

Making this about my team, the Coyotes have the worst point % of all active NHL teams in history but not once have they been favored with a franchise altering pick. On them I suppose for not tanking right but the lottery was supposed to be about discouraging teams from tanking. The Coyotes are an excellent case study for why you should never win just a little bit. You should completely tear down and win nothing like all the teams that have benefitted from high picks and continue to lose hard until you get those one or two picks that change the franchise.

The year prior to Patrick Kane, the Blackhawks attendance was 12,727 (I don't have a good source for historical TV ratings). The Arizona market is criticized for not supporting their team when (prior to Mullet) they were around 14,600 in attendance. Would they not sell out if they had a shiny 1OA/2OA like all these other teams get? Would not San Jose, & Anaheim who have also had attendance dips of recent?

When the Blackhawks went into their recent tank they stopped selling out, then Bedard selection and attendance goes back up. Blackhawks fans are not Cubbies fans. Blackhawks fans show up when the team is winning (or has a Bedard) and decline when the team is losing (just like every hockey market save for Toronto, Montreal & Vancouver).

Not to pull the band-aid too hard on this but...the lottery rigging for Bedard was not in the actual pick process but that Chicago even qualified for a first since other teams (New Jersey, Ottawa, Arizona) have had 1st round picks forfeited for far lesser offenses than raping players and covering it up for a decade.

 

[Brodeur]

In the last 25 years...

Teams who have not received a 1st or 2nd OA:

• Arizona
• Calgary
• Dallas
• Detroit
• Minnesota
• San Jose
• Vegas

In the same time frame, teams who have received 3 or more 1st or 2nd OA:

• Buffalo
• Edmonton
• Pittsburgh
• New Jersey
• Tampa Bay
• Winnipeg/Atlanta

Not rigged but there is a significant disparity in haves and have nots. Since the draft so significantly effects the fates of franchises, there should be more built into the system as the "randomness" of the current system is favoring some teams over others.

The lottery rules were different between 1995-2012, and then 2013-15, then 2016-21, and now the current funky system since 2022.

To get the #1/2 pick from 1995-2012, a team would have had to finish in the bottom 5-6. The highest Calgary picked in that time frame was 9th a couple times. With the rules from 1995-2012, the worst team had close to a 50/50 chance of retaining the first pick and could only get bumped down to #2. The Coyotes only had a couple picks in the top 5 in that span.

Pittsburgh: 2004 (worst team, bumped to #2), 2005 (got lucky for Crosby), 2006 (second worst team)
Edmonton: 2010 (worst team), 2011 (worst team), 2012 (second worst)
Tampa Bay: 1998 (worst team, actually lost lottery but Phil Esposito made a deadline deal to acquire extra odds to retain #1), 2008 (worst team), 2009 (second worst team)

They did build in more randomness after Edmonton's 2010-12 run. I know the league wanted to draw for the top 3 spots starting in 2015, but Buffalo successfully lobbied for them to wait a year (since Buffalo was already in process of guaranteeing themselves McDavid or Eichel).

Devils have had an inordinate amount of luck. Won the 2011 lottery from the #8 spot, 2017 lottery from #6 spot, the 2019 lottery from the #3 spot, and moved up in the 2022 lottery from the #5 spot.

I always wonder if winning the 2011 lottery inadvertently had an adverse effect on the Devils for the 2012 playoffs. New Jersey moved up from #8 to #4 and drafted Adam Larsson in 2011. Devils had veteran Anton Stralman in training camp as a PTO in case Larsson wasn't ready. They ended up keeping Larsson and releasing Stralman. Larsson hit the rookie wall in the second half and only played a handful of playoff games. In his place, journeyman Peter Harrold played in 17 playoff games. If the Devils hadn't won the lottery, they very well might have ended up with Dougie Hamilton (went #9) who would have needed another year in the OHL. Devils then could have kept Stralman who would have been an upgrade over Harrold.

 

[Nona Di Giuseppe]

T

The probability is extremely low given the required coordination, the people who would need to keep quiet about it, the risk/reward ratio, the conflicting incentives, and the lack of anything close to resembling proof.

The probability is zero considering the draft is run by Ernst & Young.