Draft and UDFA Thread 2017-18

[aufheben]

Thought some might find this interesting:

2018 NHL Draft: Spring Rankings

 

[offdacrossbar]

Yeah, but I don't think we necessarily went out and said that he caught our attention late, think it was more the general awareness of him that started to become greater after the U18 were he was so good. I could be mistaken though.

I do think that we liked both Marc Staal's and Dylan McIlrath's draft year POs a lot which impacted their draft position. On McIlrath, Nashville got Shea Weber somewhat late in the 2nd round, Weber was one of those developed early physically types, built like a bull when he was 17 y/o. But he wasn't a stand out in the WHL, just needed a lot more time to round out his hockey skills. But I think that soon after the 03' draft people really started to acknowledge him, he had such an impressive package of skating and size and some skill too. When we drafted McIlrath, Weber was peaking in the NHL. I think we looked a lot at Weber when drafting McIlrath. Not in the sense that we were banking of McIlrath becoming that good -- but probably taking into consideration that players who are athletic and has a high raw skill package can improve a ton after their draft, and McI was more of an offensive minded D when he was drafted (even if it didn't show in the stats in the WHL) who could fight and hit.

dont agree at all that mcilrath was "offensive minded ". ever.

the kid was never invited to or made any canadian national teams and appeared in only 1 all star showcase - where he fought. he had a large shot but never knew how to use it. ever.

mcilrath was a pure reach play and a "fall in love" pick courtesy of gordie clark and based soley on toughness, measurables and projections rather than hockey skills and hockey IQ. at this point, this book has been written.

hockey IQ and skating- for an NHL defenseman, are absolutes. when you pick 10th, you take the best player available who has those 2 attributes above as a minimum, in other words, you start there and work forward.

mcilrath had neither.

 

[UnSandvich]

Yea he’s also the second best offensive defenseman in this draft and a top 3 defenseman in this draft...

I disagree on the first part, if not the second. Imo, both Boqvist and Dahlin are better offensive defensemen. That said, I think it's extremely likely that Hughes is one of the first 3 Dmen picked, and one of the best 3 dmen from this draft

 

[Edge]

dont agree at all that mcilrath was "offensive minded ". ever.

the kid was never invited to or made any canadian national teams and appeared in only 1 all star showcase - where he fought. he had a large shot but never knew how to use it. ever.

mcilrath was a pure reach play and a "fall in love" pick courtesy of gordie clark and based soley on toughness, measurables and projections rather than hockey skills and hockey IQ. at this point, this book has been written.

hockey IQ and skating- for an NHL defenseman, are absolutes. when you pick 10th, you take the best player available who has those 2 attributes above as a minimum, in other words, you start there and work forward.

mcilrath had neither.

I agree.

The hope was that some of the tools would translate into an offensive game that hadn't yet developed, and frankly a good portion of this board took that and reeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaallllllllllllyyyyyyyyyyy ran with it (I know, hard to believe). But no, he wasn't seen as being "offensive minded" per say.

The goal with McIlrath was that he would add to his repertoire and develop into a unique NHL player. He was seen as a good athlete, with our guys pointing to his soccer background. But there's one slight problem.

The game began to change rapidly. If McIlrath were drafted even 6 years earlier, he probably would've had a longer NHL career. But he came along right when the league was shifting. In contrast, Brady Skjei benefited from that change and is probably a better fit for today's NHL than he would've been in the years prior to his draft.

 

[Edge]

Right now, the only team I could see us maybe moving up with is Arizona.

I think the drop for a potential partner becomes too great when you look to go higher than Arizona, and the cost too high if you look to go lower than Arizona.

I know it makes for a nice fantasy conversation, but I have a very hard time seeing a move up within the top 10, or landing Edmonton's pick.

I think it's far more realistic this team looks to get into the teens and/or potentially get into the early 20s.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Thought some might find this interesting:

2018 NHL Draft: Spring Rankings

It's very interesting and scary that Lundestrom is ranked that high.

The board meltdown if we reached for him at 9 would be epic.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

Which, in all fairness, is the playoffs.

Not really, you can work around that and it's not like that's the biggest part of hockey, it's a really small part of defending that can be negated.

 

[Edge]

It's very interesting and scary that Lundestrom is ranked that high.

The board meltdown if we reached for him at 9 would be epic.

Well, I know the Rangers liked him at the start of the season. Whether that translate to taking him with a higher pick, I don't know.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Well, I know the Rangers liked him at the start of the season. Whether that translate to taking him with a higher pick, I don't know.

How similar are the roles that him and Lias would fill should they both come close to their ceiling?

Lundestrom sounds like the same type of player, but who relies a little more on IQ than being dogged. Is that fair?

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

Lundeström has 3rd line ceiling imo, he's FAR from Lias pre draft... His underlying numbers are not good, his shot generation is abyssmal and he doesn't dominate against his peers.... He's a 2nd rounder for me.

 

[Edge]

How similar are the roles that him and Lias would fill should they both come close to their ceiling?

Lundestrom sounds like the same type of player, but who relies a little more on IQ than being dogged. Is that fair?

I gotta be honest with you, I don't really see a lot of crossover in terms of style.

Lundestrom to me skews more to a playmaker and not nearly as scrappy as Andersson.

 

[Pizza]

Interesting chart above.

Would not have thought Dobson would be ranked so far down given what we've been hearing.

Does anyone think we take Dobson over Bouchard if given the chance?

 

[Harbour Dog]

I gotta be honest with you, I don't really see a lot of crossover in terms of style.

Lundestrom to me skews more to a playmaker and not nearly as scrappy as Andersson.

Ah, well in that case I would be more amenable to taking him with a pick outside the top 12 or so.

I had it in my mind that him and Lias were more similar than perhaps they are.

Prospect 'redundancy' would be a terrible reason to pass on a perceived BPA, but I was actively rooting for us to not use a pick on him all the same. And through no fault of his own.

 

[Edge]

Ah, well in that case I would be more amenable to taking him with a pick outside the top 12 or so.

I had it in my mind that him and Lias were more similar than perhaps they are.

Prospect 'redundancy' would be a terrible reason to pass on a perceived BPA, but I was actively rooting for us not using a pick on him all the same. And through no fault of his own.

Personally, I don't think he'll be the BPA or the most intriguing option on the board.

I think the Rangers would be looking at names like Bokk, Kravstov, or someone with more a big swing.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Personally, I don't think he'll be the BPA or the most intriguing option on the board.

I think the Rangers would be looking at names like Bokk, Kravstov, or someone with more a big swing.

Get me a high-end forward and a high-end Dman with the first two picks, and I’m over the moon. Come away with Wise and Lundkvist on top of that, and I might not be seen for days.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Interesting chart above.

Would not have thought Dobson would be ranked so far down given what we've been hearing.

Does anyone think we take Dobson over Bouchard if given the chance?

I do, due to the potential for further development and the skating.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Lundeström has 3rd line ceiling imo, he's FAR from Lias pre draft... His underlying numbers are not good, his shot generation is abyssmal and he doesn't dominate against his peers.... He's a 2nd rounder for me.

How is he used in Lulea? Couldn’t that have a huge impact on his underlying stats, especially considering he’s only 18 in a mes league? How were Lias’ stats in his draft year?

 

[Harbour Dog]

Personally, I don't think he'll be the BPA or the most intriguing option on the board.

I think the Rangers would be looking at names like Bokk, Kravstov, or someone with more a big swing.

Yeah that's fair, and I would prefer those guys along with another half dozen or so forwards, but I will go back over reports of Lundestrom with less of a bias this time.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

How is he used in Lulea? Couldn’t that have a huge impact on his underlying stats, especially considering he’s only 18 in a mes league? How were Lias’ stats in his draft year?

Lias was doubling Lundeström in pretty much Everything. Lundeström has been played in a middle-6 role with plenty of TOI, his shot generation is really really bad.

Like, Lias pre draft had MUUUUUCH better numbers then Lundeström.

 

[Edge]

Yeah that's fair, and I would prefer those guys along with another half dozen or so forwards, but I will go back over reports of Lundestrom with less of a bias this time.

He's a good player. Just not the guy I want the Rangers to take.

Based on where guys might go, I'd be thrilled to come away with one of Hughes/Boqvist/Bouchard/Dobson at 9, Farabee in the low teens, and someone like Bokk at 20.

If that means moving Zucc, and some combination of the picks we have, I'm cool with that.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

He's a good player. Just not the guy I want the Rangers to take.

Based on where guys might go, I'd be thrilled to come away with one of Hughes/Boqvist/Bouchard/Dobson at 9, Farabee in the low teens, and someone like Bokk at 20.

If that means moving Zucc, and some combination of the picks we have, I'm cool with that.

What is he good at besides skating? There's nothing in his game that tells me he's a 1st rounder except his skating.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Lundeström has 3rd line ceiling imo, he's FAR from Lias pre draft... His underlying numbers are not good, his shot generation is abyssmal and he doesn't dominate against his peers.... He's a 2nd rounder for me.

How were Lias' underlying numbers in the SHL at the same age? Must be difficult to maintain them against men.

Answered above, my bad.

 

[eco's bones]

I agree.

The hope was that some of the tools would translate into an offensive game that hadn't yet developed, and frankly a good portion of this board took that and reeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaallllllllllllyyyyyyyyyyy ran with it (I know, hard to believe). But no, he wasn't seen as being "offensive minded" per say.

The goal with McIlrath was that he would add to his repertoire and develop into a unique NHL player. He was seen as a good athlete, with our guys pointing to his soccer background. But there's one slight problem.

The game began to change rapidly. If McIlrath were drafted even 6 years earlier, he probably would've had a longer NHL career. But he came along right when the league was shifting. In contrast, Brady Skjei benefited from that change and is probably a better fit for today's NHL than he would've been in the years prior to his draft.

While I agree with all of that and I think it's only part of what happened.

The other part is practically everthing that could have gone wrong went wrong for McIlrath. The kneecap displacement injury as his pro career was about to begin him set him back for a good season and a half. By the time he finally had a pretty decent (not great) 3rd year in the AHL the next training camp the Rangers were in a position where they had to protect or probably lose him to waivers. So the Rangers kept him and AV only played him very sporadically. Whatever progress he'd started making in the previous year pretty much stalled. I can't really blame AV--though Dylan had some good moments he really needed more time in the AHL.

What the Rangers were pretty much hoping for when they drafted McIlrath is something similar to what Washington has gotten out of Tom Wilson. Better a forward for that kind of job description IMO and Wilson is a better skater than Dylan and wasn't quite as much a project player. And much as I don't like Wilson it's hard to argue he hasn't been pretty damned effective these playoffs--so when it does work you do have something unique.

 

[Edge]

What is he good at besides skating? There's nothing in his game that tells me he's a 1st rounder except his skating.

I like his playmaking when he's in a position to use it. I like his awareness. IQ and positioning.

I don't think he has the high-end, first line talent, but I think he's a legit first round prospect.

I think it's a bit dismissive to not include him as a first round pick. One of the top picks? No. But when you start getting into that second half talent, he's in that mix.

I think we sometimes tend to view first round picks as all being elite prospects, and the reality is that the by the time you get to the second half of first rounds, you're looking at a mix of guys who are either raw, good-but lacking top line skills, or some other combination of elements.

You start looking at some of those names in the late teens and 20s, the variables become a little more pronounced.

 

[Edge]

While I agree with all of that and I think it's only part of what happened.

The other part is practically everthing that could have gone wrong went wrong for McIlrath. The kneecap displacement injury as his pro career was about to begin him set him back for a good season and a half. By the time he finally had a pretty decent (not great) 3rd year in the AHL the next training camp the Rangers were in a position where they had to protect or probably lose him to waivers. So the Rangers kept him and AV only played him very sporadically. Whatever progress he'd started making in the previous year pretty much stalled. I can't really blame AV--though Dylan had some good moments he really needed more time in the AHL.

What the Rangers were pretty much hoping for when they drafted McIlrath is something similar to what Washington has gotten out of Tom Wilson. Better a forward for that kind of job description IMO and Wilson is a better skater than Dylan and wasn't quite as much a project player. And much as I don't like Wilson it's hard to argue he hasn't been pretty damned effective these playoffs--so when it does work you do have something unique.

Have to be honest with you. I was never one who fell into the camp who looked at the knee cap injury as the turning point.

I felt by his D-1 and D-2 year it was pretty evident that the higher upside they were hoping for wasn't really materializing. While there was the hope he could still be that physical presence, I think even the Rangers knew that he wasn't quite evolving toward the higher return they may have hoped for.

Generally speaking, D-1 and D-2 years give a pretty good indication as to whether a prospect looks like they are lining up with expectations, coming in above expectations, or coming in below expectations.

It doesn't necessarily always indicate whether they are going to have a good impact at the NHL, but it does (somewhat) give a good idea how they're lining up with the ceiling/floor you projected for them.