Dorion Presser - April 12,18

[Sensung]

so you'll be dropping 10 grand for a pair in the lower bowl the day after EK signs? I sure hope so after your activity here over the past 6 months

I am on record that i will not spend a dime on the Sens as long as Melnyk owns the team.

This is not news to you.

 

[Micklebot]

This completely ignores the feedback yhe Sens hsve recirved from STH's and the Sun survey thst ticket sales will be tied to signing EK.

No, it really doesn't. The point is any disruption will be short term. People will get past it and start buying tickets again faster than some around here are suggesting. Trading Karlsson will not devistate the season ticket base, it will cause a blip on the radar, and the team will move on. It was four years after Gretzky was traded before the oil saw a decline in attendance, why? Because one player doesn't make the impact on sales that some seam to think. Pronlonged sucking can, a crappy product can, and while trading Karlsson could contribute to those things, the trade itself isn't the issue, it's what the team does afterwards that matters.

To be honest, I think the damage is already done. The people most likely to buy fewer tickets or stop altogether have already done so after years of frustration with how the org has handled things. Trading Karlsson might tip a few more over the scales, but I suspect the impact won't be as detrimental as some think.

 

[BonkTastic]

To be honest, I think the damage is already done. The people most likely to buy fewer tickets or stop altogether have already done so after years of frustration with how the org has handled things.

I agree.

I think there's also largely an age bias in the fracturing of the fanbase right now - it seem to me that it's largely the younger fans who are tuning the team out, which is a terrible sign. I feel as though, and this is anecdotal and an educated guess on my part so take it with however large a grain of salt that you want, that the fans who support Melnyk are largely in the 45+ age bracket.

That, unfortunately, is not a sustainable trend in the long run, and scares me a bit. This team isn't hemorrhaging older fans who will spend money on it for the next 10 years, it's losing it's younger ones who might spend money on it for the next 40.

 

[Sensung]

No, it really doesn't. The point is any disruption will be short term. People will get past it and start buying tickets again faster than some around here are suggesting. Trading Karlsson will not devistate the season ticket base, it will cause a blip on the radar, and the team will move on. It was four years after Gretzky was traded before the oil saw a decline in attendance, why? Because one player doesn't make the impact on sales that some seam to think. Pronlonged sucking can, a crappy product can, and while trading Karlsson could contribute to those things, the trade itself isn't the issue, it's what the team does afterwards that matters.

To be honest, I think the damage is already done. The people most likely to buy fewer tickets or stop altogether have already done so after years of frustration with how the org has handled things. Trading Karlsson might tip a few more over the scales, but I suspect the impact won't be as detrimental as some think.

The ST renewal thread and feedback to the sales reps suggests the impact will be much larger than you imagine. Especially if they turn it into a money deal by attaching a salary dump.

 

[stempniaksen]

Guys like Fisher and Neil are considered "greats" in the organization because of the countless hours they put into the community, and how over-and-above they were with the fanbase. If either of those guys just showed up to the rink to play and went home after the game to live a private life and didn't involve themselves with the fans or anything else, would they still be considered "greats"? I highly doubt it.

I mean, you just named probably the two guys in Sens history who put more into the community and fanbase than anyone in the history of the franchise. If those two guys had been selfish pricks, there's no way they'd have the legacy that they do.

Fisher and Neil aside though... I think all NHL fanbases have a thing for "blue collar" type players, because working-class fans can relate to that kind of work ethic - a guy who is in the league because he works hard, not because he was born with all of god's gifts. "He might not be the most skilled guy, but he overcame that and made something of himself anyways". I mean, that's the most relate-able story in sports, right? It suggests that anyone can do it as long as they work hard enough, which mirrors "the American Dream" so to speak.

Parents can push guys like that as role models to their kids, because those players reflect the kinds of values you want your kid to grow up appreciating, regardless of their actual hockey skill - you can point to a guy like Mike Fisher and tell your kid that he embodies the kind of attitude that helps you in life, not necessarily limited to hockey. Then, those kids get older and, having grown up being told that those characteristics were virtuous and looking up to guys like that, appreciates the same types of character as adults. They then pass that down to their own kids, rinse and repeat.

Can you name a blue-collar hockey player in the league, on any team, who donates huge chunks of their free time to the community, and is a genuinely likeable & charitable person, that isn't loved by the fanbase?

Well that was clearly an over-simplification on my part, but I also wasn't expecting a level 3 BonkTastic wall of text in return

Those two players in particular may have been bad examples, because of all the reasons you've listed. That being said, I think you'd have to admit that Ottawa can be a fairly "blue collar" when it comes to hockey considering how white collar the city is. I realize that there are segments of all fanbases that love these types of players, but we've been conditioned in Ottawa especially to like grit over skill (flaming out in the playoffs with "skill" teams, Gary Roberts owning us for years and then everyone in the city pining for Roberts at the deadline, ect).

I can't argue with anything you said though, it's spot on. Just happen to notice that mindset more in Ottawa than Montreal for example, where skill guys like Kovalev and Subban were adored.

 

[Sensung]

Not at all, we're just people with opinions differing from yours.

Oh I'm sure in most cases that is true.

 

[pzeeman]

I have trouble understanding people who would prefer watching this team with this coach, GM and owner without Karlsson on it. Even if he tops out at 90% peak Karlsson, he's still by far and large the centerpiece on this team and we have very little else worth the price of admission(Stone, Hoff and Duchene are the only other three imo).

We know we won't rebuild a contender from the potential return trading EK would net us, not with this management, and we aren't gonna spend the savings from not signing EK on UFAs, at least not over the next 3-4 years, so why not keep him around and attempt to contend while he's relatively young and yes, still elite?

People who worry about the state of the team should focus their worries where they are warranted(budget, ownership, coaching, GM), not on spending a few extra millions on the best player in Ottawa sports history.

I don't think the problem is with paying $10.5M to $12M to 90% Karlsson for eight years. No one would be worried about that, and I suspect most would feel it's quite fair.

The problem is with paying $10.5M to $12M to 17-18 Karlsson for eight years. This team cannot be on the hook for that. The owner won't pay to bury that kind of problem. It would make us long for the halcyon days salary freedom when the Senators had Ryan and Phaneuf contracts.

Months ago, I speculated that the least risky move for this team is to wait until November 2018 to see what Karlsson is now. That clearly can't happen, and we'll have to hope his push at the end of this last season shows that he's returning to form.

 

[BonkTastic]

Well that was clearly an over-simplification on my part, but I also wasn't expecting a level 3 BonkTastic wall of text in return

Haha, sorry. I just wrote until I felt as though I had sufficiently said everything I wanted to say on the subject.

Just happen to notice that mindset more in Ottawa than Montreal for example, where skill guys like Kovalev and Subban were adored.

I would argue that Montreal is the exception that proves the rule. Our close proximity to Montreal and Habs fans probably falsely suggests that the Habs fanbase is typical in the NHL, since we see more Habs fans than any other fanbase and therefore wrongly assume that their particular brand of fandom is the norm.

Like many things in Montreal, they are far more European in their mindset than the rest of this continent, and the "skill vs grit" hockey fandom thing follows in this regard.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

I am on record that i will not spend a dime on the Sens as long as Melnyk owns the team.

This is not news to you.

While you're at it, why not re-commit to your statement, about a month ago, stating that people, who buy tickets for the Senators home games, and attend those games, are the problem????

 

[BatherSeason]

The problem is with paying $10.5M to $12M to 17-18 Karlsson for eight years. This team cannot be on the hook for that. The owner won't pay to bury that kind of problem. It would make us long for the halcyon days salary freedom when the Senators had Ryan and Phaneuf contracts.

I am willing to bet that EK will be more productive in 8 years than Mark Stone or Matt Duchene. The will be no need to bury EK's salary ever. Was anyone worried about burying Crosby's contract?

 

[pzeeman]

I am willing to bet that EK will be more productive in 8 years than Mark Stone or Matt Duchene. The will be no need to bury EK's salary ever. Was anyone worried about burying Crosby's contract?

Is that a fair comparison? I don't know, so let me investigate.

According to capfriendly, he signed his current contract in the summer of 2012. At that point, he'd had two concussions (real risk) and had come back as strong as he'd left. So the risk is probably comparable.

I'm sure that PIT wasn't terribly concerned about needing to pay to correct the mistake if Crosby wasn't Crosby. And he has one of those stupid contracts - his real money plummets when he turns 34.

The issue is - for reasons that have been discussed and fought over to death, but for now remain a fact and I don't want to fight over it - the Senators don't have the flexibility to pay to get out of a monster Karlsson extension if/when he declines to this past season's performance. That's a risk that cannot be ignored - not saying that it's necessarily deal breaking.

 

[armani]

Is that a fair comparison? I don't know, so let me investigate.

According to capfriendly, he signed his current contract in the summer of 2012. At that point, he'd had two concussions (real risk) and had come back as strong as he'd left. So the risk is probably comparable.

I'm sure that PIT wasn't terribly concerned about needing to pay to correct the mistake if Crosby wasn't Crosby. And he has one of those stupid contracts - his real money plummets when he turns 34.

The issue is - for reasons that have been discussed and fought over to death, but for now remain a fact and I don't want to fight over it - the Senators don't have the flexibility to pay to get out of a monster Karlsson extension if/when he declines to this past season's performance. That's a risk that cannot be ignored - not saying that it's necessarily deal breaking.

We saw a one-legged Karlsson carry this team to the cusp of SC finals. At the very least, his playmaking and creativity will always be there, and as a smallish defenceman his defensive game will be intact (if not improve with age and experience). Karlsson may not be an Alfie (who became truly elite only in his mid-30s), but I am not worried about a massive drop off. The guy knows how to adjust (as his return from two significant injuries prove).

 

[BatherSeason]

The issue is - for reasons that have been discussed and fought over to death, but for now remain a fact and I don't want to fight over it - the Senators don't have the flexibility to pay to get out of a monster Karlsson extension if/when he declines to this past season's performance. That's a risk that cannot be ignored - not saying that it's necessarily deal breaking.

In this "so-called off-year", he was still 3rd on dman scoring in the league and probably would have won the defenceman scoring race if he played all season. His "decline" was mostly due to having a bum ankle and being anchored by Johnny Oduya.

The media is over-playing this "Karlsson decline" talk. Dude had one bad season, on a bad, bad hockey team, it happens.

 

[pzeeman]

In this "so-called off-year", he was still 3rd on dman scoring in the league and probably would have won the defenceman scoring race if he played all season. His "decline" was mostly due to having a bum ankle and being anchored by Johnny Oduya.

The media is over-playing this "Karlsson decline" talk. Dude had one bad season, on a bad, bad hockey team, it happens.

I hope you're right. I still don't think the risk is 0, but I hope it's minimal.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

He inconveniently had his worst season as this drama was about to unfold. It was obvious for anyone watching that he had top speed, acceleration, and skating mobility problems. He acknowledged it himself a few times and seemed frustrated. It was also the year he lost Methot and had terrible partners all year, so that's a good point to consider.

I don't think there's much of a voice saying don't sign him, it was just a bit eye opening to see a version of Karlsson that was just flat out not very good. Ignoring all other factors of what led to it, or how he will play going forward, he sucked, it is what it is. Sign him anyways, and move on.

 

[Upgrayedd]

I have accepted the team won't truly compete under the current owner/owners philosophy and had accepted that at least I could watch the other stars come through town and get to see EK play regularly in person surrounded by discount players and perhaps if the stars aligned we might get a sniff like the anomaly that was last season...if they move EK there's not much left for me personally in regards to hope for the team except for new ownership.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Casual fans in Ottawa love "blue collar" guys though, always have. It's why guys like Fisher and Neil are considered all-time greats in the organization.

Lame dude....

Neil was more than "blue collar" guy, he was the very best in the league at what he did and the perfect new era hybrid fighter in his time. He was an archetype, and that's why he was considered an all-time great. Not just because he worked hard every game going about his business.

 

[stempniaksen]

Lame dude....

Neil was more than "blue collar" guy, he was the very best in the league at what he did and the perfect new era hybrid fighter in his time. He was an archetype, and that's why he was considered an all-time great. Not just because he worked hard every game going about his business.

I clarified my point later in the thread, did not mean to discount what Neil (or Fisher) have done for this organization on and off the ice. Those two were clearly not the best examples to use, that's on me. I still stand by my point that there is a (significant) segment of Sens fans who value grit over skill (but as Bonk stated that might be league wide outside of Montreal).

 

[Ice-Tray]

I clarified my point later in the thread, did not mean to discount what Neil (or Fisher) have done for this organization on and off the ice. Those two were clearly not the best examples to use, that's on me. I still stand by my point that there is a (significant) segment of Sens fans who value grit over skill (but as Bonk stated that might be league wide outside of Montreal).

You sure did, all good

 

[topshelf15]

I clarified my point later in the thread, did not mean to discount what Neil (or Fisher) have done for this organization on and off the ice. Those two were clearly not the best examples to use, that's on me. I still stand by my point that there is a (significant) segment of Sens fans who value grit over skill (but as Bonk stated that might be league wide outside of Montreal).

TBH ,there is place for both....You need both to win,loading up on just skill wont get you far...Just as loading up on grit,would do the same...

 

[stempniaksen]

TBH ,there is place for both....You need both to win,loading up on just skill wont get you far...Just as loading up on grit,would do the same...

I don't disagree with you at all, I just think there's a segment of the fan base that takes it too far (it's not even about glorifying the grit guys, it's more those who discount the skill guys who I have an issue with). I want to say the type of fan that regularly tunes into TGOR, but I don't want to offend anyone with that blanket statement

 

[topshelf15]

I don't disagree with you at all, I just think there's a segment of the fan base that takes it too far (it's not even about glorifying the grit guys, it's more those who discount the skill guys who I have an issue with). I want to say the type of fan that regularly tunes into TGOR, but I don't want to offend anyone with that blanket statement

Oh I know you are a good poster,and I dont take any offense...But sometimes some skilled guys can be more frustrating ,than a decent hard working grinder...

I would love us to find another Macarther,he was the best of both worlds...

 

[BatherSeason]

I hope you're right. I still don't think the risk is 0, but I hope it's minimal.

I would say that there are much better odds that Mark Stone shows major signs of decline far before EK.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I would say that there are much better odds that Mark Stone shows major signs of decline far before EK.

I agree. He's 2 years younger, but he can't afford to lose much of a step.

 

[coladin]

I don't think we have seen Stone's peak yet, which is a good thing. Guy is a late bloomer and was still getting better this year.

Karlsson, I wouldn't want to trade spots with the management on this one. Part of me says you have to sign him. The other part of me looks at this year and thinks what a disaster this contract can be. The more the year went on, his play went from mobility, skating issues, to being uninterested and distraced. Unfocussed and atrocious on many defensive plays. That guy scares me more. This was before the tragic circumstances. I still feel he will be happy being higher than Subban in this market where his wife wants to be.

11 is a number I wouldn't go to. Over 10 gives me the shivers. I know someone else posted along the lines of " what is a couple million dollars more" type of sentiment, but in this market, as Bonktastic accurately described, that would be a major risk with lower revenues forecasting, a consistently negative atmosphere (fair or unfair), rampant Lebreton sepculation with an uninformed mayor to boot...so many issues right now