Dorion Presser - April 12,18

[pzeeman]

He was terrible and uninspired this year. The injury explained the reduced skill level early on, but the uninspired play for virtually the entire season can not be so easily explained away. I was disgusted by his effort on many nights, especially as captain.

This was new for me, and given the timing and all of the swirling rumours, it matter a whole lot going into negotiations. I personally think folks have love for EK and it clouds their judgement. It's hard to argue with other fans that he's the best player in the NHL, and the best D man year after year, but then have to face what we saw this year in a n honest manner to ourselves, let alone to others.

Based on what I saw this year in terms of his effort and emotional commitment, I would be all over trading him. Based on the entire body of work I would like to be sure that this season was blip, and a return to being the model player and captain for our team is where he's heading. You have to explore all options at this point, given how bad he was this year.

Again, his attitude was FAR more concerning to me than his play, though him admitting that he would never be able to play the same way again and that he would have to adapt is also of concern. Even rounding out near the end of the year he was not able to catch guys on the back check like he used to, nor has he been able to rush the puck like he used to. Is he still a fantastic player? Hell yes! But is he still in the conversation for best player in the NHL, definitely not after this season, next season we can only hope for a full return to form, especially of we're committing 12+ million for the next 8 years.

Let's refine the bolded a bit.

"Based on what I saw this year in terms of his effort and emotional commitment, I don't want to commit to giving him 16%-18% of the player budget for the next nine years, therefore the best move would be to trade him and recoup something."

No one is saying "He had a bad year coming back from injury! Trade him!" That would be beyond stupid. It's the risk of re-signing for crazy money that's the problem.

The risk is real, and with this owner, if the Senators are getting $6.5M Karlsson, but paying him twice as much, they can't just bury or forget that mistake. It would ripple through everything.

I hope that "some people on this board" are being too cautious, and that there really is no reason for concern. I'd love to have 16-17 Karlsson at around 10-11M. But it's something that has to be factored in to the equation.

 

[NorthCoast]

The Islanders won the Yashin trade under this logic. Well, at least they got Yashin locked up long term in their trade.

Touche, or maybe exception that proves the rule.

For history to repeat itself...
- Karlsson falls off to be a 40 point player in the next 1-2 years.
- Team offers the 2nd over-all pick
- 3rd Pairing Defensive prospect thrown into the deal goes on to have HOF career

I don't see any of the above happening, let alone all three.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Touche, or maybe exception that proves the rule.

For history to repeat itself...
- Karlsson falls off to be a 40 point player in the next 1-2 years.
- Team offers the 2nd over-all pick
- 3rd Pairing Defensive prospect thrown into the deal goes on to have HOF career

I don't see any of the above happening, let alone all three.

Yeah but the pick we gave for Duchene has a pretty solid chance of being a top 5 which will probably be as good or better than him. Then you add in Bowers who's out scoring Tkachuk whom many fans want with our top 5 pick this year AND Kyle Turris.

What could go wrong? We got Duchene for one more year though.

 

[coladin]

Touche, or maybe exception that proves the rule.

For history to repeat itself...
- Karlsson falls off to be a 40 point player in the next 1-2 years.
- Team offers the 2nd over-all pick
- 3rd Pairing Defensive prospect thrown into the deal goes on to have HOF career

I don't see any of the above happening, let alone all three.

For me , my issues with Karlsson are never about the points, but his defensive play that actually costs us games. Not goals, games with just bad inexcusable blunders for a 2 time Norris winner (could be 4 times). I am hoping that he bounces back, and has to in order to validate a franchise-defining contract. Or franchise-defining trade.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Feel free to check out the stats, both basic and advanced, from Jan 1st on and then get back to me.

Stats? Jesus....

 

[Ice-Tray]

The Islanders won the Yashin trade under this logic. Well, at least they got Yashin locked up long term in their trade.

I was responding to a post, that was arguing that we'd lose the trade regardless because we'd be giving up the best player.

 

[stempniaksen]

Stats? Jesus....

Would you prefer eye test? Because he looked pretty great in the 2nd half of the season as well.

All this speculation about not committing big money to Karlsson based on a bad start to this season is insane. The sample size on this guy playing out of his mind is enormous and on talent alone it's worth "taking a chance" that he'll be fine going forward.

The Penguins didn't hesitate to pay Crosby his big extension after his bout with concussions, why should Ottawa have any reservations about paying the best player (and probably only legitimate superstar) in franchise history? You don't get better by moving on from these types of players, there's no precedent for it.

 

[NorthCoast]

Let's refine the bolded a bit.

"Based on what I saw this year in terms of his effort and emotional commitment, I don't want to commit to giving him 16%-18% of the player budget for the next nine years, therefore the best move would be to trade him and recoup something."

No one is saying "He had a bad year coming back from injury! Trade him!" That would be beyond stupid. It's the risk of re-signing for crazy money that's the problem.

The risk is real, and with this owner, if the Senators are getting $6.5M Karlsson, but paying him twice as much, they can't just bury or forget that mistake. It would ripple through everything.

I hope that "some people on this board" are being too cautious, and that there really is no reason for concern. I'd love to have 16-17 Karlsson at around 10-11M. But it's something that has to be factored in to the equation.

Just to refine this further, I think there are two very separate points here.

1) Can the Sens win with a generational player that takes up a large percentage of the budget? Forget Karlsson, take any top 5 player in the league and imagine he was re-upping his contract at fair market value this summer. McDavid, Crosby, Doughty, Karlsson (assume healthy) etc. You can assume they would all get 11-14 correct? Are you against any player taking up that much cap?

2) Is Karlsson still a generational player worth his asking price? ie: does he still fall into the category above. Can Karlsson play at an 11-12 mil value (irrespective of the team budget) for the better part of the next 8-9 years?

The feeling I get from some (not necessarily yourself), is that their answer is No for #1, and this taints the conversation regarding #2. IMO if you can't answer Yes to #1 then I think your chances of winning a cup are dramatically reduced because even if you luck into a perfect rebuild your window for winning ends up being 1-2 years before you have to start paying your elite kids 10-12 mil.

So I believe that you need elite talent and you need to be able to build the team around them even when they are 18% of the cap.

So it comes down to #2. Again, IMO their is a much better chance of EK living up to his salary than your chances of replacing him with a similar talent. Keep in mind that several teams have NEVER been able to acquire a player as good as EK.

It would be like Pittsburg saying "lets trade Crosby at 27 so that we can load up with picks to draft another Crosby".

 

[coladin]

Stats? Jesus....

Your post didn't make sense until I logged out and the Ignored list is viewable lol

 

[Ice-Tray]

Yeah but the pick we gave for Duchene has a pretty solid chance of being a top 5 which will probably be as good or better than him. Then you add in Bowers who's out scoring Tkachuk whom many fans want with our top 5 pick this year AND Kyle Turris.

What could go wrong? We got Duchene for one more year though.

That's one take, here's another one:

The chances of a top 5 pick being better than Duchene are slim, not close to "probably".

Bowers has yet to play a single NHL game, so we have no idea how he pans out, but again not likely to be as good as Duchene.

Duchene is MUCH better art a player, and more importantly for our team, than Turris.

We severely underperformed this year, I think it's highly unlikely that we end up bottom 5 next year.

Also, he's 26, and setting up to a core player for our team. We made out like Kings on this trade. Sakic got a good haul considering he had to trade the guy, but I bet he'd prefer to have a happy and productive Duchene on his team than the quantity he received.

 

[pzeeman]

The Penguins didn't hesitate to pay Crosby his big extension after his bout with concussions, why should Ottawa have any reservations about paying the best player (and probably only legitimate superstar) in franchise history? You don't get better by moving on from these types of players, there's no precedent for it.

That's an easy one.

The Senators can't afford to get it wrong. Other teams can.

The team can de-risk by waiting until November (to pick a date out of air) to see what Karlsson has become, how he's bouncing back, and to get a better sense of what he will be. Of course, that can't happen for any number of reasons.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Would you prefer eye test? Because he looked pretty great in the 2nd half of the season as well.

All this speculation about not committing big money to Karlsson based on a bad start to this season is insane. The sample size on this guy playing out of his mind is enormous and on talent alone it's worth "taking a chance" that he'll be fine going forward.

The Penguins didn't hesitate to pay Crosby his big extension after his bout with concussions, why should Ottawa have any reservations about paying the best player (and probably only legitimate superstar) in franchise history? You don't get better by moving on from these types of players, there's no precedent for it.

We can disagree, I'm ok with that. He didn't look great at all. He put up points when we were playing out the rest of the season, still made lazy gaffs, and look uninspired, though his skills picked up.

He didn't just have a bad start, but I realize that fans have a massive emotional attachment to the guy, so reasonable discussion is difficult. It's like having a frank discussion about your girl with a stranger, it's not going to happen, and I respect that.

Personally I saw some things in his game this year that made me question his commitment, to this team and being captain. there could be a million reasons to not want to play here, EM being perhaps a big one, but that's what I saw in his play, and it's no surprise that as our captain went, so did our team. No fight in the dogs this year at all.

Like I said, hopefully it was a blip, and management will have a better picture of what goes on behind the scenes going into negotiations. If he is committed to staying here and leading the team, I want to see an inspired leader again next year rather than what we got this year.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I guess the whole notion of not knowing is a given to me about life in general so to use it as an example of why we should make decisions seems odd.

I may get struck by lightning so should I go outside? What if that lightning strikes my house and it catches fire? Guess I should go outside ...

Of course we can't see the future but we saw what 2nd half Karlsson looked like and at times it was amazing.

A full year after surgery and an extended off season to rehab and train and I believe we see our superstar back on a nightly basis.

Going by what we do know is that he is the most dynamic and electric D on the planet and will be one of the best skaters in the game until he retires.

Look at all the best skaters of their generation and they all aged gracefully.

Well the not knowing was in reference to knowing about pre-existing injuries/surgeries with his foot/ankle, not just lightning striking type chance. Same as the references to McDavid, Crosby, Spezza and Heatley's injury history playing a part in the risk factor.

At times he was back to his old self in the 2nd half, and it restored my faith for the most part, I still think he's been a lot better in the past and hope he can get back to that if we're paying what we have to pay him. Even the 2nd half Karlsson from last year isn't worth this contract, we need that guy that can skate like the wind and pivot on a dime, and that's the thing I don't think he really got back yet..

This got taken to0 far anyway, I want to sign him if we can get him around 10-11 per year, and my original post was mostly just in light of the condescending comments made towards posters discussing the risk of the contract. There's definitely some sensitivity in Sens land when discussing Karlsson.

 

[pzeeman]

Are you against any player taking up that much cap?

No. I am not against that in general.

Can Karlsson play at an 11-12 mil value (irrespective of the team budget) for the better part of the next 8-9 years?

I don't know.

And that's the divide here. Many feel that the answer above is definite yes!, therefore what are we talking about? There are others who would answer somewhere on a spectrum of "probably will" (me) to "probably won't". The second group is concerned about what happens if he never returns, or declines quick. This team is less tolerant of risk because it can't afford to just pay out and move on, so the further down that scale I described above, the harder look a generational contract gets.

 

[Sensung]

I wonder if it is possible to separate the emotion that goes into this deal. I would love to have him back at any cost is my emotional response. The other side of my brain has issues with Karl getting more than 10M. Like I said, tough call here for management.

The rational case for signing him for anything at McDavid or lower is stronger than the one for letting him go if he wants over 10M and it isnt particularly close.

Please stop acting like anyone who disagrees is basing it on emotion over logic.

 

[Sensung]

Let's refine the bolded a bit.

"Based on what I saw this year in terms of his effort and emotional commitment, I don't want to commit to giving him 16%-18% of the player budget for the next nine years, therefore the best move would be to trade him and recoup something."

No one is saying "He had a bad year coming back from injury! Trade him!" That would be beyond stupid. It's the risk of re-signing for crazy money that's the problem.

The risk is real, and with this owner, if the Senators are getting $6.5M Karlsson, but paying him twice as much, they can't just bury or forget that mistake. It would ripple through everything.

I hope that "some people on this board" are being too cautious, and that there really is no reason for concern. I'd love to have 16-17 Karlsson at around 10-11M. But it's something that has to be factored in to the equation.

The Sens have been getting 13M Karlsson for years...

 

[Sensung]

Stats? Jesus....

Ya, those pesky things rational people use to minimize how much their bias clouds their judgment.

 

[Sensung]

We can disagree, I'm ok with that. He didn't look great at all. He put up points when we were playing out the rest of the season, still made lazy gaffs, and look uninspired, though his skills picked up.

He didn't just have a bad start, but I realize that fans have a massive emotional attachment to the guy, so reasonable discussion is difficult. It's like having a frank discussion about your girl with a stranger, it's not going to happen, and I respect that.

Personally I saw some things in his game this year that made me question his commitment, to this team and being captain. there could be a million reasons to not want to play here, EM being perhaps a big one, but that's what I saw in his play, and it's no surprise that as our captain went, so did our team. No fight in the dogs this year at all.

Like I said, hopefully it was a blip, and management will have a better picture of what goes on behind the scenes going into negotiations. If he is committed to staying here and leading the team, I want to see an inspired leader again next year rather than what we got this year.

And some other posters have an irrational dislike for EK that makes it difficult to have a rational discussion and prefer their biased eye test to a fact based discussion.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

McDavid is in a league of his own imo, he was the most anticipated player to join the NHL since Crosby and he has lived up to it ever since in a big big way. The next highest salaries are all at least 2 million less. That's where Karlsson belongs imo, not with the one aberration we have to go off of. It doesn't have to do with the cap rising imo, it is just because of who McDavid is and who everyone else isn't. That second tier is where I put him personally.

1		Connor McDavid Center	$12,500,000
2		Patrick Kane Right Wing	$10,500,000
		Jonathan Toews Center	$10,500,000
		Carey Price Goaltender	$10,500,000
5		Jack Eichel Center	$10,000,000
		Anze Kopitar Center	$10,000,000
7		Alex Ovechkin Left Wing	$9,538,462
8		Evgeni Malkin Center	$9,500,000
		Jamie Benn Left Wing	$9,500,000
10		P.K. Subban Defenseman	$9,000,000

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[stempniaksen]

McDavid is in a league of his own imo, he was the most anticipated player to join the NHL since Crosby and he has lived up to it ever since in a big big way. The next highest salaries are all at least 2 million less. That's where Karlsson belongs imo, not with the one aberration we have to go off of. It doesn't have to do with the cap rising imo, it is just because of who McDavid is and who everyone else isn't. That second tier is where I put him personally.

You can't discount inflation because you feel like it, it's gonna factor into the contract.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

McDavid is in a league of his own imo, he was the most anticipated player to join the NHL since Crosby and he has lived up to it ever since in a big big way. The next highest salaries are all at least 2 million less. That's where Karlsson belongs imo, not with the one aberration we have to go off of. It doesn't have to do with the cap rising imo, it is just because of who McDavid is and who everyone else isn't. That second tier is where I put him personally.

1		Connor McDavid Center	$12,500,000
2		Patrick Kane Right Wing	$10,500,000
		Jonathan Toews Center	$10,500,000
		Carey Price Goaltender	$10,500,000
5		Jack Eichel Center	$10,000,000
		Anze Kopitar Center	$10,000,000
7		Alex Ovechkin Left Wing	$9,538,462
8		Evgeni Malkin Center	$9,500,000
		Jamie Benn Left Wing	$9,500,000
10		P.K. Subban Defenseman	$9,000,000

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I agree... I mean who does Karlsson think he is? McDavid? geesh.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

You can't discount inflation because you feel like it, it's gonna factor into the contract.

I'm not discounting the possibility of some inflation, I'm just discounting McDavid as a comparable because he's the best player in the NHL in a league of his own above Karlsson.

Carey Price signed his deal last summer, and that's a much more appropriate comparable imo. I could very well end up very wrong, but until I see more contracts signed at McDavid value, I'm not going to just accept it as the standard. He is the best player in the NHL at 21 years old.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I agree... I mean who does Karlsson think he is? McDavid? geesh.

I respect anyone's opinion that disagrees, but no he isn't there imo.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

McDavid is in a league of his own imo, he was the most anticipated player to join the NHL since Crosby and he has lived up to it ever since in a big big way. The next highest salaries are all at least 2 million less. That's where Karlsson belongs imo, not with the one aberration we have to go off of. It doesn't have to do with the cap rising imo, it is just because of who McDavid is and who everyone else isn't. That second tier is where I put him personally.

1		Connor McDavid Center	$12,500,000
2		Patrick Kane Right Wing	$10,500,000
		Jonathan Toews Center	$10,500,000
		Carey Price Goaltender	$10,500,000
5		Jack Eichel Center	$10,000,000
		Anze Kopitar Center	$10,000,000
7		Alex Ovechkin Left Wing	$9,538,462
8		Evgeni Malkin Center	$9,500,000
		Jamie Benn Left Wing	$9,500,000
10		P.K. Subban Defenseman	$9,000,000

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Take out Ovechkin's contract because it was signed a decade ago. Way too much has changed since then in regards to the salary cap and the CBA to use that as a serious comparable.

Add cap hit percentages to each of those contracts, and then you get a more honest look at where Karlsson is at. Toews and Kane's contracts would be the equivalent to about 12.2M under an 80M cap.

Subban's contract is the equivalent to about 10.4M under next season's 80M cap, and his resume at the time he signed the contract paled in comparison to Karlsson's current resume.

10.5M IMO is the floor for Karlsson. It's basically the Subban contract adjusted for the upcoming cap ceiling.

Unless Tavares or Doughty (or somebody else) pushes the ceiling higher before Karlsson signs, 12.5M is the ceiling. It doesn't mean Karlsson will get 12.5M, but he's in the conversation as a top player in the league not that far off from McDavid. Karlsson has been established as the league's #1 D to the point that the only time he isn't in the Norris conversation is if he has a season where he is hurt or has to play hurt.

GMs (and agents for that matter) know that barring some crazy unlikely outside situation (CAD hyper inflation, World War 3, etc) that the cap will continue to rise and in turn a player's overall percentage of the cap will deflate from season to season. Subban's contract is a perfect example of this. Right now, his contract is a steal because the cap his risen accordingly. At the time he signed it, it was a contract on the very high end. The contract still has 4 years left in it, and the cap has gone up enough in that time frame to make it a steal. Anybody signing Karlsson to a 7-8 year 12M type contract will know that 3 or 4 years in, comparable players might be getting 14 or 15 million.

 

[Ice-Tray]

And some other posters have an irrational dislike for EK that makes it difficult to have a rational discussion and prefer their biased eye test to a fact based discussion.

Right, I'm super biased against EK, and THAT is the perspective that's a real hindrance to rational discussion around here in HF Sens land.

Yet another solid sensung point.