Does Matthews hit 40 goals again this season (2017-2018) ?

[wintersej]

1. Bergeron probably was, but there are no stats that I've seen that go back that far. He has clearly been used as a defensive specialist since then; Matthews will not be used in the same manner since his biggest strength is clearly scoring.

2. I'm using deployment stats to help back up my statements instead of basing everything off my biased opinions.

I find your logic fascinating and am trying to follow.

(1) I said that the best centers usually don't score a lot of goals and distribute more so they can play a better two way game as the most important players on the ice. This doesn't mean never getting the kind of in close goals that Matthews has been so good at, but, it means picking your spots a bit more. (2) That Babcock has not historically went for high event hockey and that you can expect him to reign that in a bit as the team matures and for Matthews to follow that pattern of being more responsible. This will get the Leafs closer to winning Cups instead of being a fun but average team.

I'm not sure where my bias is coming in to play, nor where zone starts refute this bias.

 

[TheDoldrums]

(2) That Babcock has not historically went for high event hockey and that you can expect him to reign that in a bit as the team matures and for Matthews to follow that pattern of being more responsible. This will get the Leafs closer to winning Cups instead of being a fun but average team.

Moving away from the Pittsburgh style of play gets them closer to a Cup? I'm not sure about that.

I think some teams with elite offensive talent realize trading chances is actually a good thing. Much in the way a lot of the best basketball teams prefer to play at a high pace to increase the number of possessions.

 

[Philadelphia Ducks]

yes if he's healthy, it'll be the other second year players that take a small step back, elite players like Matthews will remain at the top.

 

[leafsfan1234]

I find your logic fascinating and am trying to follow.

(1) I said that the best centers usually don't score a lot of goals and distribute more so they can play a better two way game as the most important players on the ice. This doesn't mean never getting the kind of in close goals that Matthews has been so good at, but, it means picking your spots a bit more. (2) That Babcock has not historically went for high event hockey and that you can expect him to reign that in a bit as the team matures and for Matthews to follow that pattern of being more responsible. This will get the Leafs closer to winning Cups instead of being a fun but average team.

I'm not sure where my bias is coming in to play, nor where zone starts refute this bias.

Your bias comes into play when you make completely false assertions without checking facts. Crosby has regularly been a top goal scoring center with a strong two way game. The Red Wings under Babcock were top 2 in the NHL in shots on goal for 6 straight years. Babcock was also screaming at the rookie trio to shoot closer to the net all preseason, so don't expect that to change.

 

[Dustin]

As long as he doesn't face any serious injuries. There was nothing unsustainable about his goal scoring last year and with the exception of his first game he scored most of the time only once per game.

In fact if he gets a shot in each game again this year it's possible he could get even more.

Matthews scored most of his goals last year in tight. He was played against by top lines and top pairing defense for most of the season whenever on the road and was still able to get shots off.

 

[Soliloquy of a Dogge]

35 goals, 35 assists.

 

[libertarian]

Scores less goals but gets more points. Will not be surprised if he is in the top ten in scoring.

 

[Samuel Culper III]

41-37-78 for Matthews this year i think.

Those are the exact numbers I had in mind.

 

[Del Preston]

40 goals, 30 assists, 100 points

 

[Yasuo]

Safe bet is NOPE

 

[lomiller1]

None of Datsyuk, Bergeron, Kopitar or Toews are in Matthews league as goal scorers.

Mainly because they spend less time in the high scoring areas near the net because they are playing farther back in a safer defensive position. Matthews will not be able to bring the 2-way game these guys have spending as much time deep in the zone as he does. You can’t have both, either the goals will fall off or the defensive play will fall short.

Is Crosby not considered a two-way centre?

a) Matthews isn’t Crosby.
b) Crosby doesn’t normally score 40+, in fact he has done so only twice
c) While Crosby did score 44 this year, the Pens were near the bottom of the NHL for shots, scoring chances and expected goals allowed.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Mainly because they spend less time in the high scoring areas near the net because they are playing farther back in a safer defensive position. Matthews will not be able to bring the 2-way game these guys have spending as much time deep in the zone as he does. You canÂ’t have both, either the goals will fall off or the defensive play will fall short.

I'm not going to go in circles with this, so I'll try to be blunt. The main reason Matthews scores more is because he's better at it. Imagine that. He has the USDPT record for most goals. He lead the Swiss league in goals per game in his pre-draft year. He was far superior as a prospect in terms of goal scoring than any of the guys you keep bringing up. All he's ever done is score a ridiculous amount of goals. It's a gift that someone like Kopitar does not have. There's no positioning adjustment that will turn Kopitar into the league's second leading scorer.

a) Matthews isn't Crosby.
b) Crosby doesn't normally score 40+, in fact he has done so only twice
c) While Crosby did score 44 this year, the Pens were near the bottom of the NHL for shots, scoring chances and expected goals allowed.

As a goal scorer Matthews isn't Kopitar, Datsyuk, Toews or Bergeron either, yet you keep comparing them.

Is this you trying to argue Crosby isn't a two-way centre? Does your need to spin Matthews negatively really push you that far? My word.

Both the Penguins and Leafs play incredibly high event hockey. By design. Both Crosby and Matthews allow a lot of shots and scoring chances. But they create more than they allow. Their teams get a majority of the scoring chances when they're on the ice. That's not a bad defensive player. There's no nobility in lessening opponents chances if your own fall as well.

5v5 Scoring chances allowed

Avalanche: 1646
Devils: 1672
Penguins: 1832
Leafs: 1883

5v5 scoring chance %

Penguins: 52.6
Leafs: 51.74
Avalanche: 48.06
Devils: 47.7

Yeah...I'm going to go ahead and believe that the teams that outchanced their opponents were the better defensive teams, not those with the lowest raw total.

 

[JarvisFunk]

He will again someday, but I don't see it happening next year.

 

[JarvisFunk]

50-50. Hfboards crashes at McDavid comparisons.

McDavid finishes with 130 points, Hfboards still sees a massive influx of McDavid vs Matthews who's better polls.

 

[TheLeastOfTheBunch]

Expected boost in ice time, overall improvement in play from a young player (alongside his rookie linemates) and I think he will hit the mark.

 

[Leafidelity]

I'm pretty confident that he will. He even had a decent scoring slump last year.

 

[lomiller1]

5v5 Scoring chances allowed

Avalanche: 1646
Devils: 1672
Penguins: 1832
Leafs: 1883

Wait, so you are posting this in order to try and defend your claim that having you top C spending so much time near the net trying to score doesn’t hurt the team defensively?

Yeah...I'm going to go ahead and believe that the teams that outchanced their opponents were the better defensive teams, not those with the lowest raw total.

I see the problem now. You don’t understand what defensive play is.

 

[francis246]

He hit 40 while having a long ass goal scoring drought. So yeah I'm gonna say it's probably he hits 40 or more

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Based on how many do it. I will say no.

 

[TheDoldrums]

I see the problem now. You don't understand what defensive play is.

Figured you might show some humility after being proven wrong in the last Matthews thread. Oh well. Good defensive teams don't get outchanced, pace matters, that's all I'll say in an effort to keep the thread somewhat on topic.

 

[WilliamNylander]

This will be a fun bump in a few months.

He will easily hit 40. With the number of shot attempts he generates this is a no brainer.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Figured you might show some humility after being proven wrong in the last Matthews thread. Oh well. Good defensive teams don't get outchanced, pace matters, that's all I'll say in an effort to keep the thread somewhat on topic.

Don't you understand Matthews scoring goals hurts his team horribly from a defensive standpoint? How is he supposed to play defense while he's scoring goals?

 

[slimbob8]

Wait, so you are posting this in order to try and defend your claim that having you top C spending so much time near the net trying to score doesn’t hurt the team defensively?



I see the problem now. You don’t understand what defensive play is.

I think you need to re-read his post. He explained it quite clearly.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

If healthy for the entire season, I'm predicting 44-44-88.

 

[NeedleInTheHay]

He hit 40 while having a long ass goal scoring drought. So yeah I'm gonna say it's probably he hits 40 or more

He hit 40 based on a 4 goal game before NHL coaches and defenseman could gameplan him.