Does Matthews hit 40 goals again this season (2017-2018) ?

[A1LeafNation]

50-50. Hfboards crashes at McDavid comparisons.

 

[Plural]

He's going to be around 35 to 40. I'm guessing he falls just a tad short but it's more about him focusing more on playmaking due to improved line mates. I see him increasing his assist and point totals but slightly going down on his goals.

36+44=80 is my prediction today.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

If he stays healthy he can if he stays healthy I see 85 points 45 goals 40 assists

 

[grieves]

Exactly 40 with a bunch of added assists.

 

[JoVel]

I'd say his point total will go up to around 75 but he'll score less goals. 29 assists last season isn't much for a player his caliber.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

There's no reason he can't. If healthy, anywhere between 35 and 50 won't surprise me at all.

If the NHL truly cracks down on slashing like they are saying they will, then I expect more PPs and I think Matthews will hit 40+.

 

[lomiller1]

IMO Babcock asks him to play a more conservative game and he settles in somewhere around Toews/Kopitar level of offence. If he doesn’t he will never approach the level of defence these two bring but could bring Stamkos level scoring/production. Considering who has the cups, the Leafs coaching will push him towards the former.

 

[leafsfan1234]

IMO Babcock asks him to play a more conservative game and he settles in somewhere around Toews/Kopitar level of offence. If he doesnÂ’t he will never approach the level of defence these two bring but could bring Stamkos level scoring/production. Considering who has the cups, the Leafs coaching will push him towards the former.

Considering the offense Zetterberg and Datsyuk were able to bring while playing a defensive game for Babcock, I'd say you're a bit off.

 

[wintersej]

I don't think his 14.3% shooting is 100% unsustainable...but, it also wouldn't be shocking if his shooting % doesn't end up being that high for his career either. In the long run, I think its his shot totals that will take a hit more than his shooting percentage.

Like lomiller1 above, I do wonder if Babcock will continue to be OK with such high event hockey in Toronto in the long run. At some point, you might see Matthews start to play higher in the zone and distribute more instead of crashing the net.

A great example of this is Bergeron. When he was a 20 year old not known for his defense yet, he had 310 shots. Up until last season, where the Bruins were top heavy and Marchand/Bergeron were asked to play more offense, Bergeron became a 200-250 shot guy that got better at winning the matchup, even if it meant less scoring.

I don't think it will be next year Matthews makes the transition to being more of a two way Toews/Kopitar guy, but still voted that he wouldn't hit 40 again. Its just real hard to do.

 

[wintersej]

Considering the offense Zetterberg and Datsyuk were able to bring while playing a defensive game for Babcock, I'd say you're a bit off.

Zetterberg played a lot of wing, so not a perfect example. And Datsyuk was a playmaker, so not a perfect example either. Matthews is awesome. One of the top handful of young talents in hockey. Maybe even #2. But the goal totals, especially the "in close" variety, might have to take a hit as his game matures. This isn't a bad thing. Gets Toronto closer to be a Cup team than the Zhamnov, Selanne, Tkachuk WPG Jets that had three young rising stars and crap to show for it. Cups > goals.

 

[lomiller1]

Considering the offense Zetterberg and Datsyuk were able to bring while playing a defensive game for Babcock, I'd say you're a bit off.

When Datsyuk was over a point per game it was immediately after the first lockout when goal scoring in general was way up.

As noted above he was also a playmaker not a goal scorer. For a Center to score a lot of goals they need to be near the net a lot instead of higher in the zone, which in turn means that in transition they are frequently starting on the wrong side of the puck for defensive play. Good defensive centers are necessarily around the net less and get fewer shots and low quality shots as a result and therefor fewer goals.

 

[I am not exposed]

Well, adding a more offensively gifted player doesn't necessarily mean that, it could actually mean the opposite.

Agreed.

I also think Hyman gets underrated.

Just because you're adding a 'better' player like Marleau doesn't mean it will automatically increase the goals scored for Matthews.

I remember when Kessel went to Pittsburgh and the assumption was he was going to score 50 goals as Crosby's wing! Didn't quite work out like that.

 

[leafsfan1234]

When Datsyuk was over a point per game it was immediately after the first lockout when goal scoring in general was way up.

As noted above he was also a playmaker not a goal scorer. For a Center to score a lot of goals they need to be near the net a lot instead of higher in the zone, which in turn means that in transition they are frequently starting on the wrong side of the puck for defensive play. Good defensive centers are necessarily around the net less and get fewer shots and low quality shots as a result and therefor fewer goals.

Datsyuk was 4th in scoring two years in a row. People that think Babcock is going to play Matthews like Toews or Bergeron are clueless; Babcock used both Datsyuk and Zetterberg more in the offensive zone and will do the same with Matthews.

 

[wintersej]

Datsyuk was 4th in scoring two years in a row. People that think Babcock is going to play Matthews like Toews or Bergeron are clueless; Babcock used both Datsyuk and Zetterberg more in the offensive zone and will do the same with Matthews.

Psst.

Bergeron and Toews both had more face-off wins AND face-off losses in the offensive zone than Matthews. I think those guys are getting plenty of offensive zone time. We are not talking about deployments, we are talking about how you play on the ice.

 

[leafsfan1234]

Psst.

Bergeron and Toews both had more face-off wins AND face-off losses in the offensive zone than Matthews. I think those guys are getting plenty of offensive zone time. We are not talking about deployments, we are talking about how you play on the ice.

Bergeron has started over half his shifts in the defensive zone every year of his career except last season, he is a pure defensive specialist. Matthews last season started 70% in the offensive zone and will probably start ~60% in the future like Datsyuk did for Babcock.

 

[LeafGrief]

Assuming that Hyman isn't stapled to his wing this season, Matthews will probably shoot a little bit less. With better linemates (Marleau and Nylander all year) he will have more passing options and not need to shoot so much. He creates scoring chances for breakfast, lunch, and dinner, but when his passing opportunities were to Hyman or Brown, he is forced to shoot more often. Nylander and Marleau will be better passing options and I think we will see him taking a smaller percentage of his line's shots than last year. That said, Marleau-Matthews-Nylander is far far far better than Hyman-Matthews-Brown, so there will be a corresponding increase in overall shots generated. I think Matthews will get close to 40 again, but his linemates are going to score far more than they did last year. Expecting 37-42ish goals, but almost 45 assists. 50 points for Marleau, 70 for Nylander.

If Matthews plays with Hyman again, he scores 45 goals and is a threat for 50. A black hole on the left wing means that he shoots more.

 

[wintersej]

Bergeron has started over half his shifts in the defensive zone every year of his career except last season, he is a pure defensive specialist. Matthews last season started 70% in the offensive zone and will probably start ~60% in the future like Datsyuk did for Babcock.

1st, when Bergeron was Matthews age he was most certainly deployed as the offensive guy. Bergeron racked up 70 point seasons as a teenager being the offensive guy.

2nd, no one is talking about deployments except for you. Toews, Kopitar, Datsyuk all got nice deployments throughout their career. Matthews will, too. Deployments and defensive positioning have nothing to do with each other.

 

[GoJetsGo55]

I'll say no but I think he will blow his previous points total out of the water.

 

[leafsfan1234]

1st, when Bergeron was Matthews age he was most certainly deployed as the offensive guy. Bergeron racked up 70 point seasons as a teenager being the offensive guy.

2nd, no one is talking about deployments except for you. Toews, Kopitar, Datsyuk all got nice deployments throughout their career. Matthews will, too. Deployments and defensive positioning have nothing to do with each other.

1. Bergeron probably was, but there are no stats that I've seen that go back that far. He has clearly been used as a defensive specialist since then; Matthews will not be used in the same manner since his biggest strength is clearly scoring.

2. I'm using deployment stats to help back up my statements instead of basing everything off my biased opinions.

 

[lomiller1]

Datsyuk was 4th in scoring two years in a row. People that think Babcock is going to play Matthews like Toews or Bergeron are clueless;

Datsyuk tied 19th in goals in 03/04 and never made it into the top 20 again. Once again we see 2-way centers do not contend for the NHL lead in goals. The style of play is simply not compatible. You can’t be around the net and in a safe position high in the offensive zone at the same time.

 

[Ezekial]

I'll vote yes because I certainly wouldn't bet against it.

 

[leafsfan1234]

Datsyuk tied 19th in goals in 03/04 and never made it into the top 20 again. Once again we see 2-way centers do not contend for the NHL lead in goals. The style of play is simply not compatible. You canÂ’t be around the net and in a safe position high in the offensive zone at the same time.

Or maybe he didn't have the scoring talent of Matthews?

 

[CraigsList]

I think he falls short because he'll get more assists.

37 goals - 45 assists for a total of 82 points is my guess.

 

[tony d]

No, he'll get 37 goals.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Or maybe he didn't have the scoring talent of Matthews?

None of Datsyuk, Bergeron, Kopitar or Toews are in Matthews league as goal scorers. These comparisons all fall flat. Toews is the only one to ever even finish in the top 10 for goals in a season and that was once in the shortened lockout year.

Is Crosby not considered a two-way centre? He seems to defend pretty well while still scoring at an elite pace. To be clear Matthews will never be in the same galaxy as him as a passer, but I think he can compare in terms of goal scoring. And as far as scoring, Matthews is far more similar in style to Crosby than any of the other names mentioned here (including Stamkos).