Speculation: Do the Sabres make the playoffs this year?

[slip]

I'm reserving most of my irrational hate -- should we fail to make the playoffs -- for the 4th line and the bottom D pair.

 

[Sabreality]

I think they're a bubble team along with about 6 other teams. A lot of things need to go right in order for them to make it imo (ala TOR last year). Few injuries, new system clicks immediately, 505 scoring, D stabilizes & Good Lehner.

I dont think missing the playoffs will be a failure of a season as long as theyre close and show signs of things really coming together. Teams like TB, Philly, Bos & Car have just as good of a chance to get back to the dance, still have NYR/NYI & Ott to jump over to earn a WC spot at least.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

a largely unproven blue line playing for a 1st year coach in a division and a conference that is currently good to very good, not a lot of wiggle room for this team to sneak into

while I disagree with the Lehner bashers, this season could very well turn on the 3-4 points that our shootout record will give or take away

 

[AustonsNostrils]

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

TB and Toronto are the only locks in our division, IMO. I think the Lightning go over 100 pts assuming Stamkos plays 70+ games. Toronto won't be as healthy as last season, but their young core should still have them in the upper-90's or just over 100. After that, it's a relative crapshoot. It's tough to see Montreal missing if Price starts 65 games. Boucher will have the Sens trapping and clawing their way to wins and loser points. Boston still has Bergeron, and we've been waiting for them to fall out for two years, but they haven't. We are on Florida's level. I expect we'll be better than Detroit.

All told, I don't think we make it. I find myself with too many "if this can happen" items. When that's the case, it's usually a problem.

Not really sure how a bunch of teams that haven't made consecutive playoffs and couldn't put distance between our bottom five shots/goals squad create an impossible barrier to entry, but kay.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Everything I have read by the experts says no! Hopefully they are all wrong!

The numbers are based off of the team being awful when players who shouldn't be awful - Eichel and Ristolainen - are on the ice.

If those numbers are real, the rebuild failed when we lost the McDavid lottery and we're big-picture ****ed. If they're not, the spreadsheets-only crowd vastly underestimated the impact of coaching.

 

[kp2575]

The Westgate sports book just announced the over under for point totals for the NHL this year.

Sabres are at 87.5

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/20592519/nhl-point-totals-all-31-teams-westgate-las-vegas-superbook

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

The Westgate sports book just announced the over under for point totals for the NHL this year.

Sabres are at 87.5

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/20592519/nhl-point-totals-all-31-teams-westgate-las-vegas-superbook

Bang that Habs under, good God.

 

[Sabreality]

Bang that Habs under, good God.

agreed, I think thats lofty for sure.

87.5 is pretty fair imo.

 

[Zip15]

Minnesota over 96.5 is the easiest money you'll ever make.

 

[brian_griffin]

Taking the under on MTL at 100.5 might be a good one too. That Price might be too high (pun intended).

EDM to finish 3rd overall in NHL...

Culling just the East from the link above:

1 Pittsburgh Penguins 104.5 M 1
2 Washington Capitals 103.5 M 2
3 TampaBay Lightning 102.5 A 1
4 Montreal Canadiens 100.5 A 2
5 Columbus BlueJackets 96.5 M 3
6 NewYork Rangers 95.5 M 4
7 Toronto MapleLeafs 94.5 A 3
8 Carolina Hurricanes 93.5 M 5
9 Boston Bruins 92.5 A 4
10 Ottawa Senators 92.5 A 5
11 Philadelphia Flyers 91.5 M 6
12 NewYork Islanders 88.5 M 7
13 Buffalo Sabres 87.5 A 6
14 Florida Panthers 85.5 A 7
15 Detroit RedWings 78.5 A 8
16 NewJersey Devils 74.5 M 8

With BUF finishing 24th overall / 8 from bottom.

 

[sabrebuild]

Minnesota over 96.5 is the easiest money you'll ever make.

That sounds surprisingly low for them. Wonder what the angle is or if it's just a bad line.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

That sounds surprisingly low for them. Wonder what the angle is or if it's just a bad line.

A relative gutting of secondary talent from a team that doesn't have top end players and BB's short shelf life.

 

[sabrebuild]

A relative gutting of secondary talent from a team that doesn't have top end players and BB's short shelf life.

Ehh. Maybe that hits home in two seasons.

But that team lost some talent, but plenty of young guys are just hitting their prime.

I suspect that line gets drawn back in a hurry, once the bets start coming in.

 

[yahhockey]

I am hopefully because if they do not or aren't at least in the hunt down the stretch (barring significant injuries) then the roster will undergo a thorough examination. Players that some see as part of the core may be shipped off to reshape the team and maybe change its trajectory. At some point the team has to start winning and if not now then when? If they can't win now then when players like Middlestadt, Nylander and Guhle are productive NHLers it will only bump the team from out of the playoffs to bottom seeds instead of from bottom seeds to conference contenders.

 

[haseoke39]

I am hopefully because if they do not or aren't at least in the hunt down the stretch (barring significant injuries) then the roster will undergo a thorough examination. Players that some see as part of the core may be shipped off to reshape the team and maybe change its trajectory. At some point the team has to start winning and if not now then when? If they can't win now then when players like Middlestadt, Nylander and Guhle are productive NHLers it will only bump the team from out of the playoffs to bottom seeds instead of from bottom seeds to conference contenders.

I don't know. You could've said "if they can't win now" last season. I did. And so we blamed the coach and defense (to be fair, more than a few said both were abysmal before we failed), but we brought in pretty unproven quantities to bolster us in both departments.

This season is last year plus Housley, Scandella, Antipin, Beaulieu. That's basically what we hope turns us from bottom five to playoffs. Scandella is kind of a known quantity, but everybody else is just guesswork. They're what this season is basically about. If we fail again, you might see folks just blame coaching and defense all over. Personally, I won't be ready to start throwing other folks on the roster under the bus until they're in front of an average D.

 

[billsandsabres]

don't know what to expect with a first time head coach, but on paper i think the roster is good and balanced enough to be a top 8 team. so, yes?

 

[paulmm3]

I feel like a year ago we were in this exact same position. Offense is maybe a little better now because the kids are bigger and addition by subtraction but we still need top 6 wingers who weren't bought out of their last professional contract. Defense will have a hard time being worse than last year but is still uproven, people were excited when we got Kulikov, Bogosian, Gorges too. So a little better than last year, but no large changes, my bet is borderline team that misses the playoffs but maybe the defense can surprise for the positive.

 

[Icicle]

Kulikov was destroyed by the bench boards and never recovered. Bogosian was a victim of Bylsma. Gorges might've been a victim of Bylsma as well, but at least we aren't demanding his success this season. People are still overlooking that Larsson was out for half a season and our problem down the stretch beyond defense was that we had nothing after our top-2 lines-- something having Larsson around would've helped immensely with.

It's different.

Scandella is a 'safe' top-4 pick-up as far as I'm concerned. Beaulieu and Antipin are two pick-ups that are geared for Housley's system, more-so than your average top-4 defenseman. If the defense fails it's likely because Housley's system fails, but after watching Nashville last year, I can only get excited. The kids are solid and aren't injuried (knock on wood). The depth is stacked for the short-term. The major question is a top-6 LW (and for some, the goalie), and we've got two of those with high ceilings budding now.

If this core can't make the playoffs we're in bad shape.

 

[Zip15]

Kulikov was destroyed by the bench boards and never recovered. Bogosian was a victim of Bylsma. Gorges might've been a victim of Bylsma as well, but at least we aren't demanding his success this season. People are still overlooking that Larsson was out for half a season and our problem down the stretch beyond defense was that we had nothing after our top-2 lines-- something having Larsson around would've helped immensely with.

It's different.

Scandella is a 'safe' top-4 pick-up as far as I'm concerned. Beaulieu and Antipin are two pick-ups that are geared for Housley's system, more-so than your average top-4 defenseman. If the defense fails it's likely because Housley's system fails, but after watching Nashville last year, I can only get excited. The kids are solid and aren't injuried (knock on wood). The depth is stacked for the short-term. The major question is a top-6 LW (and for some, the goalie), and we've got two of those with high ceilings budding now.

If this core can't make the playoffs we're in bad shape.

Those two players stink. Period.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Those two players stink. Period.

I suspect Bogo will not suck in Housleys system. I hope Im not wrong but its Bogo so I may well be.

 

[Jim Bob]

I suspect Bogo will not suck in Housleys system. I hope Im not wrong but its Bogo so I may well be.

The other question with Bogo is how many games will he be healthy for this season?

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

The other question with Bogo is how many games will he be healthy for this season?

Yeah that I am not optimistic about that one...same woth Kane.

 

[Mattilaus]

Yeah that I am not optimistic about that one...same woth Kane.

Kane averages about 70 games a year if you ignore the 2014-2015 season where he had the one major injury and only played 37 games. It's not ideal but Kane missing 12 games shouldn't be a deal breaker unless he misses all of them in April or something.

Now Bogo on the other hand, missing him for 30 games could be a deal breaker if he has a resurgence under Housley like some people expect.

 

[dkollidas]

Yeah that I am not optimistic about that one...same woth Kane.

Kane I'm not too worried about. Nylander/Baptistery/Bailey/Fasching/Rodrigues all waiting in the wings.

Bogosian is a bit more of a worry, but Fedun can, in my opinion play at replacement level. The question is what is Antipin. If he is a true top-4 Defenseman, then we are in a really good spot because Bogosian could hypothetically be on the 3rd pair, which would be ideal.