Speculation: Do the Sabres make the playoffs this year?

[krt88]

Everything I have read by the experts says no! Hopefully they are all wrong!

 

[russ4king]

If they don't make the playoffs this year when the hell will they ever? There are too many talented players on this team to expect less than a solid playoff spot.

If it is another year of looking in from the outside, they did this rebuild wrong.

Botterill has only been on the job 3 months. He needs time to fix the holes. He has made progress in his first summer.

But yes for the record GMTM made a mess of the rebuild..which is why he is gone.

As long as they keep developing their young talent they will eventually get there. IMO not likely this year...but likely next year.

 

[Techno Allah]

I think this year depends on whether Lehner takes a step forward or not. Hopefully by year end they're worse case scenario a goalie away.

 

[DatGuy]

Nope, finish 11th

TB vs Dallas in the finals

TB wins 4-1.

 

[toomuchsauce]

I'm having a hard time convincing myself that they could be worse, absent some absurd bad luck. I can definitely see how they could stay the same, albeit in a different way. That is, the PP regresses, the even-strength play improves, but the team SV% regresses. So, despite playing better, they still miss the playoffs. And, this actually seems likely to happen (imo).

So, I have no idea if they'll make the playoffs, but I expect them to play better at evens. If they don't...jeezus.

 

[Buffaloed]

Housley is the key. Does he have the ability instill structure and discipline? Will players respect his leadership? Can he get the maximum effort from his players? There's no way to know until the season starts.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

No. Offense not deep enough defense not good enough. We will not pick top 10 though barring lotto win.

 

[Aladyyn]

They'll be better. By how much, I have no idea. And even if they improve by 15 points that's still pretty likely to not be enough...

 

[Zip15]

TB and Toronto are the only locks in our division, IMO. I think the Lightning go over 100 pts assuming Stamkos plays 70+ games. Toronto won't be as healthy as last season, but their young core should still have them in the upper-90's or just over 100. After that, it's a relative crapshoot. It's tough to see Montreal missing if Price starts 65 games. Boucher will have the Sens trapping and clawing their way to wins and loser points. Boston still has Bergeron, and we've been waiting for them to fall out for two years, but they haven't. We are on Florida's level. I expect we'll be better than Detroit.

All told, I don't think we make it. I find myself with too many "if this can happen" items. When that's the case, it's usually a problem.

 

[Reddawg]

We're going to win the division, so yes.

 

[brian_griffin]

We should revisit these predictions in mid-April.

Yes we do IMO. In no particular order:
Pittsburgh
Columbus
Rangers
Washington
Philadelphia
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Buffalo

That seems reasonable.

IMHO, there are two locks for the playoffs in the EC:

Pittsburgh
Washington

After that? It's literally a big grouping of teams with both NJ and Detroit rounding out the bottom of each division.

That's 12 teams for 6 spots.

Buffalo is in that 12 team group.

Wholly agree, although I'd add TB as a VERY HIGH probability. IMO, of the eleven remaining teams (without regard for star-player injury impact to any particular team), grouping them in 3 buckets, listed alphabetically and not ranked:

Trending down:
BOS
MTL
NYR
OTT

Uncertain / staying flat:
FLA
NYI

Trending up:
BUF
CAR
CBJ
PHI
TOR

It would be unrealistic for me to think all 5 of my upward-trending teams will make playoffs, and all the downward trending teams miss.

Re: other teams, very complex answer. Lots of variables for each team.

For the Sabres, here's what needs to happen for playoffs to be a thing:

1.) Housley's system unleashes a bunch of players due to the possession it generates.

2.) The potential of the defense is realized, even if only partially. In particular, Ristolainen becomes a #1D and isn't worn out due to usage. Bogosian becomes a viable top 4 D. Antipin proves to be an NHL puck mover. Beaulieu progresses.

3.) Player usage and combinations improve. ROR and Ristolainen aren't ground into pulp by February. Housley picks a structure for line combinations and goes with it toward player strengths.

4.) Lehner and CJ need to be an NHL starter/back-up duo, and not a train-wreck which torpedoes games.

5.) Some of the Rochester players need to advance and make an impact for the Sabres.

I agree with this assessment, but give less weight to the impact of goaltending, unless Housley's system is so open / attacking that the number of odd-man rushes against doubles or trebles.

We're going to win the division, so yes.

 

[Dogewow]

I'm not gonna out right say they will, but I have higher hopes/expectations for this year than I have the past two seasons. None of the teams outside of Tampa and Toronto really "scare" me and even then, I could see a younger team like Toronto have a regression or stay in the same place. Tampa is really the only team I see as a lock to finish ahead of us.

With that said, I don't believe it's likely that we finish second in the division, just trying to stay optimistic.

 

[Dreakon13]

Way too many factors to consider to offer a definitive opinion... but I'm optimistic.

I think it all rides on how competent Housley is as a NHL head coach and whether or not the players "buy in" to whatever he's selling. That being said, Housley has never been an NHL head coach before and this group of players have a history now of not buying in (rightly or wrongly).

But we have the talent, and this is probably the best situation these players have walked into in the last two years. Gotta make it work.

 

[Jim Bob]

I'm hopeful but my practical side says "not this year".

This is where I am at, as well.

I think I am more cautious with expectations that Housley behind the bench will be a huge improvement. He is a rookie head coach and I expect that there will be a lot more of a learning curve than many seem to be expecting.

 

[sabresfan3383]

I didn't renew my seasons, so they'll make it to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Losing a heart wrenching game 7 to Pittsburgh. Crosby, of course, scoring the series clincher in triple OT.

Your welcome everyone.

 

[dkollidas]

TB and Toronto are the only locks in our division, IMO. I think the Lightning go over 100 pts assuming Stamkos plays 70+ games. Toronto won't be as healthy as last season, but their young core should still have them in the upper-90's or just over 100. After that, it's a relative crapshoot. It's tough to see Montreal missing if Price starts 65 games. Boucher will have the Sens trapping and clawing their way to wins and loser points. Boston still has Bergeron, and we've been waiting for them to fall out for two years, but they haven't. We are on Florida's level. I expect we'll be better than Detroit.

All told, I don't think we make it. I find myself with too many "if this can happen" items. When that's the case, it's usually a problem.

I'll only say this about Tampa Bay.
1. They're not as deep offensively without Drouin and Stamkos is a question mark regarding his health.

2. If Girardi is actually playing hockey for them, then their defense is pretty bad. I mean Hedman is a beast, but if Sustr, Girardi and Coburn are half that defense, they'll have some issues.

 

[pigpen65]

Depends entirely on goaltending. No if Lehner is the starter this year.

 

[Dreakon13]

Depends entirely on goaltending. No if Lehner is the starter this year.

I know this is bait, but that's baffling to me. Lehner, for all his faults, was so low on the list of problems last year. The mental gymnastics one must have to go through to put the entire season solely on his shoulders...

EDIT: Unless you're the type of person that says "if the goalie stops every shot every game it doesn't matter how well the rest of the team plays" so everything is the goalies fault. But that falls into the school of Bylsma-defending where "players should succeed no matter how little hope the coach instills in his players to win or how poorly thought out the game plan is, because hard work" so everything is the players fault.

 

[Duddy]

I know this is bait, but that's baffling to me. Lehner, for all his faults, was so low on the list of problems last year. The mental gymnastics one must have to go through to put the entire season solely on his shoulders...

TiM MURRAYyyyyyyy


They make the playoffs, stop being so buffalo about everything.

 

[Dreakon13]

TiM MURRAYyyyyyyy


They make the playoffs, stop being so buffalo about everything.

I mean, in fairness, he's technically not wrong. If Lehner has a horrendous season, our playoff chances go down with him... but priorities. We know pretty well what we have in Lehner, and barring any unprecedented changes in his play it's not a goaltender that will cost us a season. Our rookie head coach and ragtag team of underachieving skaters are the real question marks here.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

I know this is bait, but that's baffling to me. Lehner, for all his faults, was so low on the list of problems last year. The mental gymnastics one must have to go through to put the entire season solely on his shoulders...

EDIT: Unless you're the type of person that says "if the goalie stops every shot every game it doesn't matter how well the rest of the team plays" so everything is the goalies fault. But that falls into the school of Bylsma-defending where "players should succeed no matter how little hope he instills in his players to win or how poorly thought out the game plan is, because hard work" so everything is the players fault.

The theory is that the skaters should be better and should get us close to playoffs but then at that point it hinges on goaltending and I can almost guarantee SV% will go down with more offensive system and higher danger shots on average. The question then becomes whether Lehner can maintain good enough play to secure this playoff spot. Goaltending can make a massive difference when you are a bubble team, if he steal 3 more games than he "should" thats the difference between potentially finishing 3rd and finishing 5th in the division.

 

[haseoke39]

If Housley really does get the team playing a different style, Lehner will be a very interesting player to assess. I'm not gonna throw him under the bus for benefiting from Disco's system, but I'm not sold on him either.

Put it this way: I'm glad Johnson is there to take the load if need be. I'm glad they signed Lehner to a 1 year deal, putting the coach under no onus to play him.

 

[Dreakon13]

The theory is that the skaters should be better and should get us close to playoffs but then at that point it hinges on goaltending and I can almost guarantee SV% will go down with more offensive system and higher danger shots on average. The question then becomes whether Lehner can maintain good enough play to secure this playoff spot. Goaltending can make a massive difference when you are a bubble team, if he steal 3 more games than he "should" thats the difference between potentially finishing 3rd and finishing 5th in the division.

While low on the priority list, I agree Lehner needed to be better last year. And that it could end up being on him this year when all's said and done. Who knows.

But to say at this point of the offseason that it's definitively on him just feels misguided. There are much bigger questions going into this season than if Lehner bottoms out. There's no precedent that he will be anything less than an average NHL goaltender... and if the rest of the team actually plays hockey and not whatever they were doing last year, that's all we should need to at least sniff the playoffs.

EDIT: Unless people have an axe to grind... which is pretty well documented at this point.

 

[Dingo44]

While low on the priority list, I agree Lehner needed to be better last year. And that it could end up being on him this year when all's said and done. Who knows.

But to say at this point of the offseason that it's definitively on him just feels misguided. There are much bigger questions going into this season than if Lehner bottoms out. There's no precedent that he will be anything less than an average NHL goaltender... and if the rest of the team actually plays hockey and not whatever they were doing last year, that's all we should need to at least sniff the playoffs.

EDIT: Unless people have an axe to grind... which is pretty well documented at this point.

If some people see an opportunity to hijack a thread into another Lehner bashing session, they will.

 

[brian_griffin]

I know this is bait, but that's baffling to me. Lehner, for all his faults, was so low on the list of problems last year. The mental gymnastics one must have to go through to put the entire season solely on his shoulders...

EDIT: Unless you're the type of person that says "if the goalie stops every shot every game it doesn't matter how well the rest of the team plays" so everything is the goalies fault. But that falls into the school of Bylsma-defending where "players should succeed no matter how little hope the coach instills in his players to win or how poorly thought out the game plan is, because hard work" so everything is the players fault.

If some people see an opportunity to hijack a thread into another Lehner bashing session, they will.