Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - playoff edition

[Devs3cups]

For anyone interested, here are a few metrics so far in these playoffs (all situations).

ixG (Individual Expected Goals):

Nico - 5.33
Timo: 4.18
Haula: 4.13
Bratt: 3.93
Jack: 3.81
Palat: 2.31

iSCF (Individual Scoring Chances For):

Jack: 44
Timo: 38
Nico: 37
Bratt: 32
Haula: 31
McLeod: 22

iHDCF (Individual High Danger Chances For):

Timo: 27
Nico: 27
Haula: 20
Bratt: 17
Jack: 16
McLeod: 10

Shots and (Playoff S% / Regular season S%)

Jack: 44 (13.64% / 12.80%)
Timo: 36 (2.78% / 12.35%)
Nico: 33 (3.03% / 12.06%)
Haula: 22 (18.18% / 8.54%)
Dougie: 22 (4.55% / 8.00%)
Bratt: 21 (4.76% / 15.09%)

 

[Desert Devil]

Man this team with Hellebuyck would be incredible. Doesn’t make sense for either team really. But damn a man can dream.

 

[JimEIV]

IxG was down .28 today. Not sure about iSCF?

IXG | iShares Global Financials ETF Overview | MarketWatch

IXG | A complete iShares Global Financials ETF exchange traded fund overview by MarketWatch. View the latest ETF prices and news for better ETF investing.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[NjDevsRR]

IxG was down .28 today. Not sure about iSCF?

IXG | iShares Global Financials ETF Overview | MarketWatch

IXG | A complete iShares Global Financials ETF exchange traded fund overview by MarketWatch. View the latest ETF prices and news for better ETF investing.

www.marketwatch.com

OHMY down badly. Hoping for a turnaround tomorrow.

 

[MadDevil]

Good lord our Swiss boys can't buy a goal these playoffs.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Neither guy is going to be inflicting much damage. The ‘hits taken’ stat I guess is more indicative of how often these players have been willing to take some contact to make a play. Bratt has taken 25 to Mercer’s 9.

I don't think anyone here is saying Dawson Mercer is playing up to par either.

The difference is that one guy is looking for $9m next year and one has to wonder how many Martinook, Gourde, Fast, Reinhart, Hathaway etc clones that could buy you.

 

[JimEIV]

I don't think anyone here is saying Dawson Mercer is playing up to par either.

The difference is that one guy is looking for $9m next year and one has to wonder how many Martinook, Gourde, Fast, Reinhart, Hathaway etc clones that could buy you.

That's such an old way way of thinking.

 

[Camille the Eel]

I must say I don’t see any reason to change anything in this team’s direction based on our performance this season and in these playoffs. I give us a 98% on the years exam. Couldn’t be happier with the team
no matter what happens in this series. That goes for the goaltending too. We will be fine next year with Vitek and Schmid and Dawes on the farm too.

 

[Clam Jensen]

I must say I don’t see any reason to change anything in this team’s direction based on our performance this season and in these playoffs. I give us a 98% on the years exam. Couldn’t be happier with the team
no matter what happens in this series. That goes for the goaltending too. We will be fine next year with Vitek and Schmid and Dawes on the farm too.

It would be asinine to make any drastic changes in the first year of our window, totally agree. If in year 4 we’re still exhibiting the same issues and can’t get over the hump (like the Canes, funny enough) then maybe see what the issue is. But the major pieces for our next cup are here.

 

[devilsblood]

Just shows how much Timo was getting robbed.

I don't like there have been many great saves against Timo. 3rd period of game 5 is the one stretch where I thought we were getting goalied. But otherwise I feel it's been solid goaltending against decent chances.

 

[Mgd31]

For anyone interested, here are a few metrics so far in these playoffs (all situations).

ixG (Individual Expected Goals):

Nico - 5.33
Timo: 4.18
Haula: 4.13
Bratt: 3.93
Jack: 3.81
Palat: 2.31

iSCF (Individual Scoring Chances For):

Jack: 44
Timo: 38
Nico: 37
Bratt: 32
Haula: 31
McLeod: 22

iHDCF (Individual High Danger Chances For):

Timo: 27
Nico: 27
Haula: 20
Bratt: 17
Jack: 16
McLeod: 10

Shots and (Playoff S% / Regular season S%)

Jack: 44 (13.64% / 12.80%)
Timo: 36 (2.78% / 12.35%)
Nico: 33 (3.03% / 12.06%)
Haula: 22 (18.18% / 8.54%)
Dougie: 22 (4.55% / 8.00%)
Bratt: 21 (4.76% / 15.09%)

Tatar and Mercer, nowhere to be found.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I don't think anyone here is saying Dawson Mercer is playing up to par either.

The difference is that one guy is looking for $9m next year and one has to wonder how many Martinook, Gourde, Fast, Reinhart, Hathaway etc clones that could buy you.

Nah. That’s a conversation to have about whether to bring back Tatar, not our best or second best winger. Was Reinhart a “winning player” or whatever when he had 4 points in 10 games last playoff run? Hathaway is a fine player. 6 points in 31 playoff games. Fast, a fine player, 18 points in 65 playoff games before this year.

We don’t need to disrupt our winning formula because of this short run of games. We need tweaks, not wholesale changes.

 

[Devs3cups]

Here are the 5 worst players in terms of Goals Scored Above Expected in the playoffs (from MoneyPuck)

1. Nico Hischier: -3.8
2. Timo Meier: -2.5
3. Jesper Bratt: -2.4
4. William Nylander: -2.3
5. Kirill Kaprizov: -2.2

Can’t buy a goal.

 

[FooteBahl]

Here are the 5 worst players in terms of Goals Scored Above Expected in the playoffs (from MoneyPuck)

1. Nico Hischier: -3.8
2. Timo Meier: -2.5
3. Jesper Bratt: -2.4
4. William Nylander: -2.3
5. Kirill Kaprizov: -2.2

Can’t buy a goal.

Quick Fitz, get on the phone with your counterparts in Minn and Toronto STAT!

 

[New Jersey Devils]

Wonder if Fitz just offers Timo the Fiala deal (7 yrs. $55M, $7.8M cap hit). Both have similar production. Have to imagine that’s close or gets the job done.

 

[Devs3cups]

Wonder how it’ll all go down. Considering Fitz might want to lock up Bratt first, does he put a limit date in place to start focusing on Timo if a deal isn’t reached with Bratt? I’d imagine a lot will happen before the draft.

 

[Rhodes 81]

Our best players played well in the first round, Meier in particular outside of that one first half of a game where he was just kind of off. Just didn't get results, Shesterkin was great and we took too many penalties which killed the flow of the game.

The whole team has been ineffective this round, so singling any 1 player out is not productive to me.

 

[MachoDiablo]

I think that, regardless of what the final outcome is of this series (hell, even if we win, to some extent), Carolina with home ice was just a tough, tough matchup for this team as it's currently built and where they are on their learning curve.

Doesn't mean they shouldn't have played better so far, doesn't mean that a miracle couldn't happen and they come out blazing tonight and force this series to go deep, but sometimes a young team just runs into a club that has the right combo of personnel and strategy and they have a tough time responding to it. They'll learn, and Fitz will make some adjustments to the surrounding cast. So it goes.

It does just suck to see them lose games like it's last season again, though; the other night the team came out buzzing, only to lose their edge and then have their momentum killed dead when the goaltending collapsed. If they're gonna lose, I do want to see them go down playing their kind of game and making a contest out of it.

 

[Forge]

Wonder if Fitz just offers Timo the Fiala deal (7 yrs. $55M, $7.8M cap hit). Both have similar production. Have to imagine that’s close or gets the job done.

I think Seravelli said Timo was looking for something starting with a 9. *if* that is accurate (big if), I think that's a pretty huge drop. I wouldn't expect him to shave that much off. If 9 is accurate, I'd expect maybe you can get him to 8.5 or something.

Timo, as more of a goal scorer, also probably gets a bit of a premium over Fiala.

 

[JimEIV]

I think Seravelli said Timo was looking for something starting with a 9. *if* that is accurate (big if), I think that's a pretty huge drop. I wouldn't expect him to shave that much off. If 9 is accurate, I'd expect maybe you can get him to 8.5 or something.

Timo, as more of a goal scorer, also probably gets a bit of a premium over Fiala.

Pesos?

 

[Forge]

Pesos?

Nobody is ever worth any amount of money and we should never pay anyone.

 

[JimEIV]

Nobody is ever worth any amount of money and we should never pay anyone.

Seriously I don't want to pay Meier 9 million. I don't think he's worth it.

I love the element he brings and love his game. But I'm just not seeing the value? 9 million seems steep...

40 goals is super desirable but I'm not sure that is something we can count on in the future...he's shooting at a career high 12.5% this year and his average is 10.4. drop those goal totals to 30 and 26 assist like this year and we're paying 9 million for a 56 points player?

I don't know... People are hemming and hawing over paying Bratt 7/8 million dollars a year who's on back-to-back 70-point seasons and Meier has only cracked 70 points once in his 7 year career and we seem to not have a problem with 9 for him? I personally think it's too much.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Seriously I don't want to pay Meier 9 million. I don't think he's worth it.

I love the element he brings and love his game. But I'm just not seeing the value? 9 million seems steep...

40 goals is super desirable but I'm not sure that is something we can count on in the future...he's shooting at a career high 12.5% this year and his average is 10.4. drop those goal totals to 30 and 26 assist like this year and we're paying 9 million for a 56 points player?

I don't know... People are hemming and hawing over paying Bratt 7/8 million dollars a year who's on back-to-back 70-point seasons and Meier has only cracked 70 points once in his 7 year career and we seem to not have a problem with 9 for him? I personally think it's too much.

Seems like a weird logic to assume regression in his shooting percentage but not to assume regression for assists when this is his first season finishing with more goals than assists since his second season in the league. Not to mention 327 shots at a 10.5 shooting percentage would be 34 goals, not 30.

I also think arguing Bratt vs Meier is a pointless endeavor when we should be re-signing both of them long term.

 

[Forge]

Seriously I don't want to pay Meier 9 million. I don't think he's worth it.

I love the element he brings and love his game. But I'm just not seeing the value? 9 million seems steep...

40 goals is super desirable but I'm not sure that is something we can count on in the future...he's shooting at a career high 12.5% this year and his average is 10.4. drop those goal totals to 30 and 26 assist like this year and we're paying 9 million for a 56 points player?

I don't know... People are hemming and hawing over paying Bratt 7/8 million dollars a year who's on back-to-back 70-point seasons and Meier has only cracked 70 points once in his 7 year career and we seem to not have a problem with 9 for him? I personally think it's too much.

I can respect the notion that a certain player may or may not be worth a certain amount and be hesitant to pay it. That's fine. But the market is what the market is. If you want to be competitive, at some point you have to play in it for the big boys. Only doing it for Dougie is probably not enough and we can't just hope that every contract is going to be Jack Hughes'. If we don't sign them to market rate deals, we trade Timo and Bratt for late firsts and mid prospects, wait for them to develop and hope that they turn out near as good as the guys that we traded and we can pay them pennies their first few years rather than market rate. And I just don't think that's a viable philosophy.

I am very, very nervous about paying Timo long term. I don't feel like he's a guy that is going to age well at all. Love the player...but long term I could see how that deal goes sour. Bratt I have less concern about the deal going sour, but I can see how the team and certain people may want to expand the portfolio of roster composition, so to speak.

But you have to shit or get off the pot with these type of guys...and I don't think we are getting better in the immediate future if we move on and I don't know that anyone wants to go two steps back from where we are now. I could definitely see the team split the difference and move one and keep one, but we can't be refusing to pay all of the very good players market rate either. And yeah, doing so may result in some bad long term results...but in fairness so could not paying these guys lol

 

[Nocashstyle]

There’s always some risk giving term to a true power forward like Meier. But at the same time, I fully expect him to put up elite numbers next year. He’s played well, but his production has clearly taken a hit…right now it’s mostly like of puck luck, but it’s also difficult being inserted into a lineup and immediately start clicking. There are a lot of examples of deadline acquisitions that don’t put up their usual gaudy numbers with their new team until the next season.