Few defenders impact the game better than Damon Severson, but there are also very few who are as maligned as the Devils’ blueliner. The model loves Severson as expected — most models do. Severson’s underlying five-on-five numbers are often very strong as a result of his strong puck-moving ability.
But those numbers don’t always match up with what actually happens, especially offensively. Through his entire nine-year career Severson’s goals percentage has never exceeded his expected goals percentage and is 4.4 percentage points lower on average. It wasn’t until this season, when he played in a sheltered role, that the
Devils actually outscored their opponents with Severson on the ice. It took a 59 percent expected goals rate to get to 55 percent of the goals for Severson.
He has an immense ability to tilt the ice, but for whatever reason the results don’t follow. Severson is prone to “The Big Mistake,” though that doesn’t quite explain that the discrepancy mostly stems from pucks not going in.
The model believes Severson is a bargain at $4 million and could comfortably play on a team’s second pair, but there’s probably a reason to be cautious if a lot of hockey people aren’t nearly as fond of the player.
He has a nice channel, I encourage anyone to check it out!
