Devils Team Discussion (current team/player news and notes) ‎PART XII

[CKPLAYA]

Averages between regular season and playoffs are meaningless...

You know it is an instances, a moment and some people seem to be able to capture that moment better than others. Some people can slow things down, dismiss the magnitude and see it all. Some people call it Zen, some people call it staying in the moment...Whatever you call it it is a skill.

I don't know how anyone who has ever played a sport at ANY level could not recognize this...We all have encountered people who have a knack at coming up big in critical situations... they seem to always elevate their performance in certain situations or are able to be unaffected by the magnitude of the circumstances ...They seem to be in that position regularly, they find themselves open and they seem to make it happen. It only needs to happen a few times before it is beyond a coincidence.

All you need to do is watch the Olympics; how many times do you have to see the absolute best performance of an athletes life in that one defining moment on a world stage to believe there is such thing as "clutch"...It plays itself out time and time again at the Olympics.

Being a competitive archer for a few years I know unequivocally that there are just some shooters who can make that one shot when everything is riding on it and there are many more who just can't.

Excellent post. Well said. What I find is like you said before you have stats guys who most likely have not played sports at a highly competitive level trying to quantify the greatest human attribute. I'll call it the "it" factor. it's something, it's real but no one knows what it is so they call it clutch. It's like a stats guy asking "why don't they just play at that level all the time?". it just doesn't work like that. How do you quantify poise, concentration, determination. You have guys here that take avg reg scoring and compare it to post season avg scoring. Like you said, unless you done it you can't understand it.

 

[devilsblood]

I don't like the idea of random, it seems to ignore the competing driving forces. So a cold stretch in one instance is a guy losing the head to head battles(both mental and physical) while a hot stretch is winning those battles.

Don't know what you call it, why the guy can win the battles for a stretch in one length of time, but not another, but I wouldn't go with random.

May appear random when looking at it statistically, but it's not random in real time. It's one guy beating another.

 

[StnTwnDevil]

The streakiness that players exhibit in the regular season doesn't just go away in the playoffs. Moreover, the crazy bounces that influence games in the regular season don't go away in the playoffs.

Many people misinterpret this streakiness and bounces in the playoffs as meaning something more than it does.

Is Alec Martinez clutch because a crazy shot of his went in against Chicago, and that he happened to be in the right place for a perfect rebound opportunity against the Kings? I don't think so. I think those would be very hard to repeat. Moreover, I don't think Henrique is clutch because an innocuous shot from above the hash marks went in against Florida, and that he found the puck in a net mouth scramble of five players against the Rangers.

Consistency is what I'd look for. All goal scorers get breaks here and there. The best goal scorers obviously score more goals. I don't see it being any different with clutch goals. If you score enough of them, it can't be just a fluke.

 

[devilsblood]

Excellent post. Well said. What I find is like you said before you have stats guys who most likely have not played sports at a highly competitive level trying to quantify the greatest human attribute. I'll call it the "it" factor. it's something, it's real but no one knows what it is so they call it clutch. It's like a stats guy asking "why don't they just play at that level all the time?". it just doesn't work like that. How do you quantify poise, concentration, determination. You have guys here that take avg reg scoring and compare it to post season avg scoring. Like you said, unless you done it you can't understand it.

Still doesn't explain how a guy can be good at certain clutch moments but not good during others. Claude had 2 or 3 big playoffs years. What happened in the other 10(or whatever)?

 

[devilsblood]

Consistency is what I'd look for. All goal scorers get breaks here and there. The best goal scorers obviously score more goals. I don't see it being any different with clutch goals. If you score enough of them, it can't be just a fluke.

Justin Williams and his playoff OT goals for instance.

But I think I know Stray Cat's response to this.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

Is a top player going silent for 4-7 games in the first round a signal of him choking, though? How do you know it's any different than a normal 4-7 game cold streak.

It depends on what that player did. Did he whiff 3 times point blank on the PP with a yawning net on a 1-timer? Did he only have 3 shots total in the series after being shadowed by the best defensive forward in the league? Did he get injured in game 1 with a bad shoulder and limp along the rest of the series? Or did he simply play mediocre with no apparent underlying cause and seem the victim of bad bounces?

The scenarios are endless and numbers will never tell the entire story.

There will always be booms and busts in the game. To say there is a distinct cause for either end of the spectrum would be silly as the game is far too complex to boil it down like that. That is also why taking a total aggregate look at a career is unfair to a stretch of games where the player truly did perform remarkably well.

The problem is how people define choking and clutch to begin with. Your criteria is arbitrary compared to my own. Was Scott Niedermayer's end to end rush vs. Detroit in '95 a clutch play or just what you expect from him or somewhere in between thanks to luck that the puck came off the boards perfectly back out to him to tap it in on the rebound? If he was truly clutch would he have missed the net on the first shot? Someone else would argue the results are the only thing that matters and it isn't luck if you intended for the result to happen.

Pathetic, Bad, Poor, Average, Good, Great, Exceptional

I don't know where Clutch fits in there but I think you can see someone be clutch while still being one of the above for the game/series/season. I mean if your trait of being clutch is career-arching, how would anything stand out in the moment? Isn't it a deviation from the norm that makes something clutch and not an expectation? For that matter choking seems to be the lack of performance up to the norm then.

In the end the labels are just that and don't really change the results.

 

[The 29th Pick]

People are gonna believe what they want to believe
does anyone remember the Mark Messier guarantee of 2000 ?
no they only remember the 1994 guarantee

Do fans really vote the "best" players to play in All Star Games or do they just vote for their favorite from past seasons?

 

[JimEIV]

Still doesn't explain how a guy can be good at certain clutch moments but not good during others. Claude had 2 or 3 big playoffs years. What happened in the other 10(or whatever)?

I think it is a strange question you are asking. The magnitude of 3 is ENORMOUS.

Accomplishing great task at particular moment doesn't have the requirement of duplication or uniformity. To think so seems odd to me.


That is what makes "great task" great in the first place, their rarity.

 

[theking72]

Clutchy clutch clutch

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I think it is a strange question you are asking. The magnitude of 3 is ENORMOUS.

Accomplishing great task at particular moment doesn't have the requirement of duplication or uniformity. To think so seems odd to me.


That is what makes "great task" great in the first place, their rarity.

so he was only clutch sometimes, but wasn't other times?

don't you see how that doesn't really add up?

 

[devilsblood]

I think it is a strange question you are asking. The magnitude of 3 is ENORMOUS.

Accomplishing great task at particular moment doesn't have the requirement of duplication or uniformity. To think so seems odd to me.


That is what makes "great task" great in the first place, their rarity.

But I think this argues for the clutch goal, not the clutch player.

 

[JimEIV]

so he was only clutch sometimes, but wasn't other times?

don't you see how that doesn't really add up?

I think you are thoroughly missing the point...

And it stems from wanting players to fit in a nice bucket you can label neatly.

See the problem in all of this, even the statistics is a lot of people simply want to use the data to create a fictitious list of "Best" or justify their reasoning of it....It is a stupid exercise.

 

[ajdevjet]

Let's just be honest what this conversation is really about: It stats people attempting to abolish such superlatives as grit, determination and character...They can't measure it therefore it doesn't or shouldn't count. Another dumb thought from baseball (in baseball it maybe true) that has permeated other sports.

But anyone who has ever been involved in with a team knows these things are very real and values them.

yeah lets measure a player's ability to be clutch with BS advanced stats, I swear some here dont even watch hockey. I still can believe how some are saying that there is no such thing as a player being clutch and actually trying to debate it with numbers.....hilarious stuff.

 

[The 29th Pick]

But I think this argues for the clutch goal, not the clutch player.

yes, this discussion has taken a 180 degree turn

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

yeah lets measure a player's ability to be clutch with BS advanced stats, I swear some here dont even watch hockey. I still can believe how some are saying that there is no such thing as a player being clutch and actually trying to debate it with numbers.....hilarious stuff.

you're right, we should just rely on your opinions (where you think everything the Devils have ever done in the history of the team is GR8!!!) of watching the games EVEN THOUGH there are plenty of statistics to BACK UP what you are seeing to make sure that it is accurate.

again, for the millionth time, none of the stats people are saying that you should 100% rely on stats. but the anti-stats people are so against using ANY kind of stats to back up an argument is hilarious

 

[JimEIV]

But I think this argues for the clutch goal, not the clutch player.

So the situation is greater than the guy who actually scores it?

Jim Craig was clutch once in entire life. It led to the greatest sports moment of the 20th century...He doesn't fit on any greatest player list and it pointless to talk about his stats. But on February 22 in 1980 for entire 3rd period he looked like the greatest goalie that ever played the game.

Is that irrelevant? If we can't average out his success, his trophies, his Save percentage does it make that moment less important?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

So the situation is greater than the guy who actually scores it?

Jim Craig was clutch once in entire life. It led to the greatest sports moment of the 20th century...He doesn't fit on any greatest player list and it pointless to talk about his stats. But on February 22 in 1980 for entire 3rd period he looked like the greatest goalie that ever played the game.

Is that irrelevant? If we can't average out his success, his trophies, his Save percentage does it make that moment less important?

he made clutch plays that night. that doesn't mean they are clutch players in general.

I never said clutch plays do not exist.

 

[The 29th Pick]

Clutchy clutch clutch

how can some of us say we dont need Carter back, we dont need what he brings?
as a 4th liner, he fits

 

[GameSeven]

I think you are thoroughly missing the point...

And it stems from wanting players to fit in a nice bucket you can label neatly.

See the problem in all of this, even the statistics is a lot of people simply want to use the data to create a fictitious list of "Best" or justify their reasoning of it....It is a stupid exercise.

I find this an interesting argument to make given the opposing side of this argument is arguing *against* a label, i.e. Clutch vs. non-Clutch

 

[JimEIV]

I find this an interesting argument to make given the opposing side of this argument is arguing *against* a label, i.e. Clutch vs. non-Clutch

Actually, I think you are misunderstanding the situation.

The original debate was whether or not clutch even exists. Not who is or who isn't for purposes of labeling.

The futile exercise of "who is what kind of player" and fixing values to them is the realm of the stat people.

The use of stats for the sole purpose of list and rankings is the absolute dumbest thing I've ever seen.

 

[ajdevjet]

you're right, we should just rely on your opinions (where you think everything the Devils have ever done in the history of the team is GR8!!!) of watching the games EVEN THOUGH there are plenty of statistics to BACK UP what you are seeing to make sure that it is accurate.

again, for the millionth time, none of the stats people are saying that you should 100% rely on stats. but the anti-stats people are so against using ANY kind of stats to back up an argument is hilarious

again with the words in my mouth...never said for everyone to rely on my opinions, JUST WATCH THE GAMES and you will know that some players are clutch and some arent, no need to complicate matters with numbers, numbers and stats DO NOT measure a players heart, determination and ability to excel in pressure situations. The word "clutch" is alive and well in all sports. Clutch exists.

 

[Missionhockey]

so he was only clutch sometimes, but wasn't other times?

don't you see how that doesn't really add up?

you're right, we should just rely on your opinions (where you think everything the Devils have ever done in the history of the team is GR8!!!) of watching the games EVEN THOUGH there are plenty of statistics to BACK UP what you are seeing to make sure that it is accurate.

again, for the millionth time, none of the stats people are saying that you should 100% rely on stats. but the anti-stats people are so against using ANY kind of stats to back up an argument is hilarious

I don't know if you're throwing me in this group but I certainly don't agree.

And in regards to the post above, you're ignoring the myriad of other factors involved like if a player is playing injured, whether they've been traded, whether they have good chemistry with their line, etcetera. Look at Gaborik, he played during the 2012 playoffs with a shoulder injury but lead the league in goals this past year. He was great in the 2003 playoffs too.

The most important thing I can stress is that nothing happens in a vacuum.

 

[StnTwnDevil]

But I think this argues for the clutch goal, not the clutch player.

I think the point there was that you just aren't going to find the consistency as you would with your typical goals/assists stat. These instances are much rarer and more sporadic compared to the instances that the typical statistics are drawn from. If, lets say, clutch goals were actually recorded, I wouldn't be surprised if there was significant fluctuation over the typical clutch player's career. There is only one guy who can cash in on these big moments when they arise in the particular game. So it'd make sense for the stat to spike in certain years. But if you compared player vs player on a season to season basis, I'm sure you would begin to see that some players don't really have any spikes in clutch goal stats, while others do. There is where you'd find the difference.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

again with the words in my mouth...never said for everyone to rely on my opinions, JUST WATCH THE GAMES and you will know that some players are clutch and some arent, no need to complicate matters with numbers, numbers and stats DO NOT measure a players heart, determination and ability to excel in pressure situations.

as someone else mentioned, you'd have to watch every game of every season for all 30 teams to know how each player stacks up against each other. or, you can just watch a good bit of games and then use stats to help make whatever argument you are trying to.

heart/determination only get you so far. give me the pure skill over guys with GRIT and JAM.

 

[JimEIV]

as someone else mentioned, you'd have to watch every game of every season for all 30 teams to know how each player stacks up against each other.

Here is exactly the problem I was getting at. What is the point of how they "stack up" against each other?

Does it make a guys accomplishments who scored 2 huge game winners in a playoff year less significant? Only if you are arguing some mundane point - is the answer