If we use your logic it will be need over BPA in top five or top ten that's a mistake.....Later in round one or second round down I can see it but not in top five or top ten Fitz has to follow his board and take most impactful player if it's Wallstedt take him if it's Kent Johnson take him
Prospect Info: Devils Picking 4th Overall, Part II
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If we use your logic it will be need over BPA in top five or top ten that's a mistake.....Later in round one or second round down I can see it but not in top five or top ten Fitz has to follow his board and take most impactful player if it's Wallstedt take him if it's Kent Johnson take him
AfroThunder396
[citation needed]
If the top-3 are all D, then you absolutely take Beniers at 4 and laugh all the way to the bank. The best forward of the draft falling to you at #4 is a steal in every way.
PizzaAndPucks
New Jersey Angels diehard
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The best forward can be from the 7th round for all we know. I would deff consider taking Eklund over Beniers.
Guadana
Registered User
Nope. I didn’t say that. I say if the difference isn’t big or visible you are going for need between two or three who you think are BPA’s with no visible/obvious difference.
Every freaking one who said Sanderson isn’t top 10 pick last year, are eating shit right now. You didn’t answer my question about how can we pick between defenseman and forward without visible/obvious difference. But you choose Eklund because of his potential offensive impact. As I said, and I will repeat, you will never build contender or good playoff team. In your vision Tampa had to draft Duchene instead Hedman. You can answer “so what? They hadn’t to draft Stamkos year ago?” No. Difference was obvious. But you know what? 2ndOA doughty was two Stanley cup champion when Stamkos only try to dream about.
So you can never answer how can we understand what we must choose between forward and defenseman. But you know what? You need only six good defenseman to build great defensive line. And it helps to play in conference final or even Stanley cup final. Ask Montreal and islanders fans. If you will build the team in your way? You can ask about it some.. oilers fans. They drafted only one defenseman from 2007 to 2017 by their high pick. They drafted A LOT of BPA in your vision. And you know what? They svck. They svck so hard like no one before. Connor fockin McDaivad play there, best player of the generation. Two playoffs in six years. Leon Draisaitl - top-7 player in the last five years. In the year when oilers got Hall and played together with Eberle, #1OA Hopkins, #1OA Yakupov, with Patric Maroon who helped Devils to make a playoff, their goalie Talbot make 91.7%, backup goalie make 90.1%. And they didn’t make the fockin playoff! You know why? Because their defensive line svck.
Do you know why they are still svck for the team play with a couple of the greatest players of modern days? Because their defense is still svcks.
I could even agree with you. Eklund is very interesting and promising prospect. But when Devils have Hughes, Hischier, Yegor, Janne, Zacha and Bratt, Foote, Holtz and Mercer in their roster and prospect pull, and our future defensive line is looking like Smith and no one, may be Bahl may be not, may be “I will never become a really good defender” Severson may be not… your tactic for this draft svcks. Svcks so hard.
dissmiss!
(I want you to know that I have nothing personal against you. this is a great forum, and I'm sure you're a very nice person. my speech was intentionally emotional, although it is based on consistent logic and conclusions about modern successful teams. I just don't want our franchise not to develop, and it obviously needs a good defense for development as soon as possible, and without it the devils will not succeed. And I specifically added theatricality and rudeness)
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Guadana
Registered User
Btw I understand that it is customary at the North American forum to love North American hockey players. But I wouldn't belittle Edvinsson's talents. He is as likely as possible to become a more worthy defender than at least one of the main three. He is pretty good skater, not so far from Hughes, better than Power and Clarke, he is good puck handler, and he is much better puck battler and one on one defensive player. May be he will not be great puckmover or driver, but we have Smith for puck moving. There are only one or two puckmovers in teams like isles, canadiens and bolts. And all of them are good defensemen.
hidek91
Registered User
Hey @Guadana , not necessarily saying that I disagree with your general point of view (despite I'm in BPA camp) but you're another one who doesn't understand the situation of Edmonton Oilers, who by the way had 72 points in 56 regular season games this year.
I have analyzed that in the past and Edmonton actually drafted reasonably well, it was just their culture, asset management, cap management and trying to "accelerate" the rebuild that stopped them. If they were managed properly, they could have become another Tampa or Chicago from decade ago. Their defence would be at least competent if they didn't lose Petry and Marino (they drafted Klefbom, Bouchard, Broberg, Bear, Nurse, Gustafsson on top of that). I'd even say it would be good without losing those two. If you add Eberle and Hall to their current forward group, you have elite team, which further reinforces my point that their drafting was actually quite solid.
Regarding 4th overall pick and our strategy, I agree that our defence sucks, however if you believe Beniers can be #1C, turning one of Hughes/Hischier/Beniers into d-man, would actually be pretty easy. It's all about maximizing the value.
I have analyzed that in the past and Edmonton actually drafted reasonably well, it was just their culture, asset management, cap management and trying to "accelerate" the rebuild that stopped them. If they were managed properly, they could have become another Tampa or Chicago from decade ago. Their defence would be at least competent if they didn't lose Petry and Marino (they drafted Klefbom, Bouchard, Broberg, Bear, Nurse, Gustafsson on top of that). I'd even say it would be good without losing those two. If you add Eberle and Hall to their current forward group, you have elite team, which further reinforces my point that their drafting was actually quite solid.
Regarding 4th overall pick and our strategy, I agree that our defence sucks, however if you believe Beniers can be #1C, turning one of Hughes/Hischier/Beniers into d-man, would actually be pretty easy. It's all about maximizing the value.
KovalSNIPE
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RememberTheName
Conductor of the Schmid Bandwagon
Guadana
Registered User
Like Salic said - if you want top-4 defenseman in prime years you must draft him.
I was talking about 2007-2017 period. Anyway you can’t draft anyone else when you have Mcdavid on the draft. When it’s Yakupov? If they did draft Murray he could help their core to be much more competitive. There were no obvious difference. Like in 2016 draft. Juolevi is some kind of bust. But Sergachyov. As I remember Olli was riser. Anyway there were Chychrun who was fall a lot. And he was in top six or top seven in a lot of mocks.
2016 NHL Mock Draft: Final Projections for Rounds 1-3
I know there were strong top-3 and Jesse was in. But he has visible problems. And now here we go. He can be good for oilers, but I can bet they will trade him for Chychrun/Sergachyov right in the moment.
Pajarvi? How the whole picture could change if they drafted Ellis?
Nashville did play with great defensive core in Stanley cup final.
There were some teams with elite offensive group. Oilers owned elite offensive group in 2016. That didn’t help.
When they will grow their defensive core - they will be contenders without hall and eberle. Under good coaching of course.
Sorry, but modern era is much more about defense than someone try to tell about it. I don’t tell to draft defenseman above obvious big talented guys. But when difference isn’t obvious blah blah blah you know what I mean. Especially for a team like Devils where are a lot of offensive talent. I’m not a huge fan of any of pick this year. There is no great two way visible talent like Sanderson year ago. Anyway there will be available at least one potential good defenseman. And I don’t think Edvinsson is the worst from those four.
If Beniers is available somehow we actually can draft him. But what we will do with him? Drafting top-4 for trade after? I don’t know who did thing like this before. It’s a paper move that will not work. When he will be nhl ready, there will be no place in top-6 most likely and he will not be able to develop well. And defensive core will svck still. If he will not produce a lot, do you think we will trade him for a good defenseman. Meh. I don’t think so. Do it now and trade the pick, or draft potential top-4 defenseman and develop him as future top-4 defenseman.
look at the comments above. Three men straight can’t decide who is a best forward on this draft. This is another funny sign how difference between players isn’t obvious/visible this year.
And sorry for a lot of words, guys. My English isn’t well, I can’t talk succinctly and need in more words at least to try to translate my massage.
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This is your friendly reminder that "BPA" doesn't exist unless you know the board of the team you're following.
hidek91
Registered User
I do agree with that, however there's an exception to this rule. Columbus got Seth Jones for Ryan Johansen. Defensemen are worth a lot but centers are worth even more. If Beniers becomes #1C, you can easily trade him for a very good, young defenseman, if you believe that he's more likely to become #1C, than let's say Edvinsson or Clarke become #1D (I'm not thinking that, just laying out an example), you easily take Beniers.
In that period (well, especially 2010-2015) they hit the absolute bottom and had to rebuild. Happened to them, happened to BUF, happened to COL, happened to us, happened to DET, may happen to any team really.
You're judging the drafts with the benefit of hindsight, which is of course an easy game to play. It's easy to point out "mistakes" when knowing how all of the prospects panned out. But in 2012 EVERYONE would take Yakupov instead of Murray, it was almost as obvious as McDavid pick. If you're willing to take d-man rather than forward, then if you want to take Murray over Yakupov, in 2011 you have to take Larsson over RNH, right? And how that would pan out? If you're suggesting Murray over Yakupov, then you could also pick Gudbransson over Hall in 2010. In 2017 they picked Kailer Yamamoto (very good pick) and defenseman Pierre Olivier Joseph was picked right after that. Playing your game only works if you pick examples where good d-man was picked right after the forward who didn't pan out.
Sure but they were completely trash team in 2010-2013. They got lucky that their rebuilding phase finished by winning the McDavid lottery but before that they were bad in pretty much every aspect. I'm also not saying that offense doesn't matter, I'm saying that the Edmonton's roster isn't a result of poor draft choices, which you seemed to imply earlier.
I'm not saying that defence doesn't matter, all I'm saying is that if Devils pick Beniers, I won't be angry at all (since trading center away is very easy), in fact I will be shocked that 3 teams passed on him.
Nobody said that out of the potential trio Hughes/Hischier/Beniers, it's Beniers who would have to be traded. Given PK/PP time, you could easily give those guys 17-18 minutes with #4C playing very limited ice time. But again, that's only if you believe that Beniers is more likely to develop into #1C than (insert d-men still available at #4) are likely to develop into #1D.
Taking Beniers would be equivalent of Nashville drafting Seth Jones. Their trade for Johansen didn't work out very well for them, HOWEVER the sole pick of Seth Jones was the correct thing to do (despite the logjam at D, it was still better to draft Jones rather than Monahan or Lindholm).
No worries, mate, you're doing fine with your English.
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- Dec 20, 2018
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Hedman was, statistically speaking, a complete monster. He scored 21 points (7 goals 14 points) in 41 games for MODO in the Elitserien (SHL) in his draft year.
At 18 he was in a five way tie for 13th among defensemen in scoring, with Hedman playing the fewest games among the dmen with 21 points.
And only 8 defensemen with more points scored at a higher rate. The players with more points and a higher scoring rate:
Victor Hedman, 18 (43GP 7G 14A 21 pt 0.49 pt/GP)
Marcus Ragnarsson, 37 (49GP 12G 25A 37 pt 0.76 pt/GP)
Pasi Puistola, 30 (54GP 6G 25A 31 pt 0.57 pt/GP)
Mikko Lehtonen, 30 (41GP 15G 15A 30 pt 0.73 pt/GP)
Kenny Jonsson, 34 (47GP 6G 24A 30 pt 0.64 pt/GP)
Teemu Aalto, 30 (47GP 11G 18A 29 pt 0.62 pt/GP)
Jaroslav Obsut, 32 (54GP 8G 21A 29 pt 0.54 pt/GP)
David Petrasek, 32 (52 GP 6G 22A 28 pt 0.54 pt/GP)
Per Gustafsson, 38 (49 GP 9G 18A 27 pt 0.55 pt/GP)
And Erik Karlsson, who was drafted in 2008, played 7 games in the Elitserien his draft year, scoring one goal. In 2008-09 in the Elitserien:
45 games 5G 5A 10 pt 0.22 pt/GP
God knows I don’t disagree with your point about drafting defensemen, I still complain about Shero under drafting defense (and we were in no way “set” at defense in terms of prospects at the time either).
And I’m really only pointing this out about Hedman not because of your post but because some people (not specifically this board, just in general) keep trying to force Hedman comparisons with Edvinsson and it’s not a very good comparison. Hedman wrecked the J20 SuperElit at 16 in 2006-07 and moved on to Elitserien at 17. Edvinsson is still splitting his time between leagues, he did get 10 SHL games (1A), 14 games in the HockeyAllsvenskan (5A) and 14 games in J20 (1G 5A).
Yes, they are tall and Swedish but Hedman was an offensive machine, to the point that people thought he was a borderline bust when he was only scoring 20-26 points in his first several NHL seasons. And, yes, that was genuinely disappointing considering what he did as a teenage prospect.
That worked out for Tampa in the end, his first contract after his ELC was dirt cheap 5 year/4m deal though.
Guadana
Registered User
They trade Johansson because they play him in top-3/6 center role. We will not give that role to Beniers.
Buffalo doesn’t make rebuild. They are svck) year after year. Colorado - good example. They drafted forwards and defensemen in that period.
I remember correctly how Yakupov wasn’t an obvious pick. Hopkins was. Larsson over Hopkins? Is it really bad? They can not trade Hall and be more competitive. And there were obvious difference between Hall and seguin and others. Don’t try to change my narrative. This is not about draft defenseman over forward every time. This is about draft defenseman when you need defenseman, your D core isn’t ready and difference isn’t obvious. I don’t like your substitution of my concepts)
Again. Their draft choices weren’t bad. They just didn’t draft defensemen when they have good option and it ruined them.
About Yamamoto I can't say anything. I don't know how thing working in those draft. If they were wrong here, but chose to pick D in their previous not obvious situations - I think picture could be better. May be could be better only. Like you said its easy to judge the past. Yes. It is. I'm not oilers fan. I'm devils fan and I try to change my mind in better way when I have more data.
What can I say about our draft? Our rebuild started in 2015. Do you know what I mean? There were two drafts when devils have option to draft defensemen. Things could change after and devils could not win those lotteries. And draft other impact players like zebras, cozens, heiskanen, etc. If we will - i understand logic to draft Hischier. There are no choice between him and Makar. There were choice between him and Patrick. I'm ok with that. I was not with McLeod draft. And I'm not hater of Mickey and Pavel. I just try to look at the past and try to understand how to make better decisions. When things are not obvious.
Drafting Jones and drafting Beniers isn't the same story. Jones played top-4 role, Beniers will not play top6 center role. Anyway he must be drafted, after that he must start to play in roster, after that he must start to play winger role and fit there. (Don't forget we have Yegor, Pavel and Foote for that role). He must be better than experienced guys. And only after that we can trade him for defenseman. Whom we are lack. Wow. Do you think its a hard way to trade for defenseman? I think yes. Easier way to draft and develop him.
Things are not obvious today. I truly belive best forward will be drafted where we don't expect. I thing story can repeat itself here for defenseman too. But we don't choose between all defensemen. This is about only two or three names.
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RememberTheName
Conductor of the Schmid Bandwagon
I think there's another side to the BPA vs need debate that hasn't been touched upon, but forgive me if it has. Need changes. A team might draft for need now, but then three years down the line, they may have wished they drafted a player from a position we may have perceived as a strength at the time, but has since become a weakness. For example, in 2016, we drafted McLeod, who was absolute need at the time. We had no forwards in the pool, so he made sense. Looking at it now, though, we seemingly have strength in forwards and a defensive weakness, which would have been solved by drafting what might have been BPA (McAvoy or Chychrun) over McLeod.
Even though we have a need at defense right now, we might draft a defender and then happen to be stuck in a defensive logjam when they are ready to contribute three years down the line, and we might wish we got a winger like Dylan Guenther who could definitely be BPA on some boards. I am not saying this situation is going to happen, but it has happened to us in the past.
What is your opinion on this idea of need changing over time?
Beniers and Eklund are very similarly styled players, actually. They are both incredibly advanced two-way forwards whose feature attributes are unbelievably elite intangibles -- hockey IQ and compete level.
Both are very skilled offensively, but neither should be confused with Jack Hughes or Alex Lafreniere in terms of scoring potential. Both have the ability to one day be Selke Trophy nominees, though I would say right now Beniers is the best defensive forward in the entire draft, and Eklund is likely a couple notches below. But Eklund's never-stop motor and otherworldly intelligence/anticipation gives him tremendous potential in this respect.
Where I would give the advantage to Beniers is simply that he is bigger, stronger and faster -- and given everything else being comparable, you take the 6'2 kid who can absolutely fly over the 5'10 kid who is a very good but not great skater. Also, you need to factor in that Beniers projects with more certainty as a center, where many (but not all) draft pundits seem to feel Eklund's future lies on the LW. Beniers is also more physical, which is an element which the Devils sorely lack at F throughout the organization -- while Eklund is competitive as hell and far from a shrinking violet, Beniers certainly makes more of an impact in the dirty areas.
Clearly, I'm a huge fan of William Eklund. But even so, I don't feel I could justify taking him with Matthew Beniers still on the board.
Guadana
Registered User
I was never try to say Edvinsson is a new Hedman) I just don't wait something like that from him. Anyway there is great gap between good usable top-4 defenseman and Hedman.
But Sanderson... I don't know. May be? I want players who can be at least maybe. Too bad we were 7, not 5 last year.
NJ DevLolz
The Many Saints of Newark
- Sep 30, 2017
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You don't spend top picks on guys who can't score - yes, this includes dmen. Falling in love with physical tools without production to match is the reason we took Zacha instead of some other dudes. No to Edvinsson.
RememberTheName
Conductor of the Schmid Bandwagon
As always with any report, take this with a grain of salt. This guy is pretty consistently good though with his reports.
- Jan 24, 2007
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"BPA" really just means don't reach too hard for need, basically what NJ did with Mukhamadullin tbh. It doesn't necessarily mean always take the top guy on your draft list. Edvinsson at this point seems like a reach at 4 and I wouldn't welcome it. The other 3 dmen seem like proper value.
Forge
Blissfully Mediocre
Really? I figured he was a crap account. I don't remember him getting anything right off the top of my head, but I haven't been paying attention because I didn't think it was a legit account lol
He’s actually pretty good. Probably the only NHL related rumor account that you don’t need to immediately discount what he says.
Forge
Blissfully Mediocre
PizzaAndPucks
New Jersey Angels diehard
- Nov 29, 2018
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Beniers sounds very similar to Hischier. A good building block to have on any team. The Devils really have their work cut out for them because as the drat draws closer my choice for who to take at 4 has been changing a ton. It all depends on who gets selected before our pick but it just seems likely that we get Clarke or Hughes at 4. Either of the two is a win. Its that Islanders pick I keep forgetting about. Hopefully a players drops down their for us to snag. Would be great to get 2 defenseman and or a dman + goalie in the 1st round.
Answer your question I answered it fully I just don't have the time to write a book like you....The more you write it makes you feel enlightened.....I have said all along BPA if it's a goalie fine a defenseman fine a winger fine just take the BPA who will make the biggest impact...Possible trade down as well..This draft was always a defense heavy draft there will be good players to be had later...,....Kent Johnson Beniers Eklund Raty Othman Zachary L'Heureux nd McTavish Rosen all capable picks at forward
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Eggtimer
Registered User
Oh lord. Incoming Reinhart and Risto for our 4th trade incoming .
I have my mind set on one of Hughes or Clarke so that trade would make me want to puke. I nav t even really stopped to think if it would be any good for us or nkt as we need a 1d in a huge way.
Now if we signed Hamilton on top of that .., then maybe it looks a little better.
Hamilton Reinhart Risto F.Anderson in net and Tarasenko via trade. Ok let’s go !
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