Draiskull
Registered User
- Oct 26, 2005
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Player Discussion Darnell Nurse is a #1 dman
- Thread starter PeteEakins
- Start date
McDNicks17
Moderator
Looking at goal differential without any context is pretty silly.
Nurse's onSV% during those 25 games is .659 lol. Ekholm's is .971. I don't care how bad you think Nurse is, it's pretty obvious he isn't causing his goalie to stop 30% less shots when he's on the ice.
I responded to that and Willis said that he thinks PDO is persistent on the PK which is funny considering Nurse's PDO on the PK the past two seasons have been 1.031 and 1.018 compared to the 0.659 he has in that sample.
If nurse and his defence on the pk isn’t part of the reason for the save percentage difference then what could explain such a difference like that? Does the goalie just play better when Elkholm is out there?
It’s hard not to think that the shots being taken while Elkholm are being saved more often because his defence makes them less of a threat.
Kolja
1-5-6-14
- Oct 30, 2011
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Aerchon
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- Jul 20, 2011
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From the moment Nurse starting approaching UFA i dreaded how bad Holland would mess this up. He was every bit as bad as I imagined and every wrong step very obvious and easily avoided.
It's really sad that our third best defenseman is making 9.25 a year. It was a gross number then and unfortunately just keeps getting worse.
I was really hoping Nurse would develop a bit more to offset his price tag but I think it's safe to say we have the finished product, and it's no where near as good as I hoped.
He is a good defenseman. Worth upwards of 6-7 mill I would say. But at 9.25 the difference is a whole nother player. His contract holds the Oilers playoff hopes hostage. His cap implications brutal. He still for some bizarre reason gives away the slot to lie down or pretend to be the goalie. I can't imagine how frustrating such a rookie mistake is for the coaches, the goalie often being screened and forced to save extremely high danger shots, and even other hockey knowledgeable players on the team. With his mobility and reach he should be closing the gap and pressuring skaters far more effectively.
This is a player I like a lot but due to salary/cap am slowly starting to dislike. It is Hollands fault more than anyone's but in most games you just can't help but feel Nurse needs to be doing better. I would say more but it's when Nurse tries to do more his game goes south.
Just saw this thread and had to rant a bit. I hope he goes shutdown beast mode in the playoffs for us and makes me eat my words.
McDNicks17
Moderator
At that point it’s bad luck.
30% is an absurd difference. If any player was shooting 35% for 25 games, we’d be talking about them having the hottest hot streak of their life.
bucks_oil
Registered User
- Aug 25, 2005
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As a goalie 1000% disagree on this.
Perfect defense: no screens, guys are boxed out, sticks tied up, cross ice passes are tipped up over the glass, shooters are pressured
Imperfect defense: I can't see, tips are happening, rebounds are coming back at me, cross ice passes hit their target and shooters have all the time in the world to pick their spot.
The difference between those (extreme) scenarios is like 0.950 vs 0.450... so yeah, it's easy to imagine a scenario where a 30% difference is more than just "bad luck".
I'm not saying it's all Nurse... I haven't been scrutinizing the tape too much lately, but to suggest it would all be luck... when defending has a huge influence on SPCT... it's a bit dismissive of what actually happens on the ice.
Skinner is still Skinner no matter who is on the ice... but Nurse is not Ekholm, nor is he Desharnais... so it is far more logical to assign causality to the variable that is changing (Nurse vs other D) than to assign to the variable that isn't changing (the whims of Skinner? is that the explanation? Purely luck? Really?)
frag2
Registered User
- Mar 8, 2006
- 19,278
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Nurse was bitched out by both Talbot and Smith before about his penchant to lay literally in front of them, impeding both vision and ability to move.
A huge part of why our goalie's Sv% is low on the PK is because of Nurse.
Taking him off the PK would be such a good thing for a variety of reasons:
- Makes the PK better (he simply sucks at it, our worst PK player by margin)
- Gives more defensive minutes to Kulak who is better on the PK anyways
- Gives the opportunity to play Nurse a few more mins 5v5 against weak comp
- Gives the opportunity to reduce Nurse's ice all together if we want
However, this is sadly probably one of those things that will never happen no matter what because Nurse "should" be a top PK option. So even though he isn't, we will still pretend he is because taking him off might lead to difficult conversations or something.
100% this.
Nurse gets constantly victimized by allowing centering passes from the corner or cross ice through the slot. Not a surprise that SV% is lower when the shooter is looking into an open net.
ChaoticOrange
Registered User
Part of it is luck, but the book has been out on Nurse for quite some time. You can't stop anything sprawled on your face. Ekholm stays on his skates and takes away passing lanes.
McDNicks17
Moderator
I don’t have the exact numbers in front of me, but Nurse’s OnSV% on the season is like .860ish, so that means in his onSV% was quite a bit above that before the drop to .650.
Did Nurse just suddenly start doing something 25 games ago to cause his goalie to let in 30% more goals or is it just a bad stretch of games from the PK where Nurse happened to be on the ice?
Last edited:
Yes, he literally has.
The dumb sliding on the ice habit and total inability to make a defensive read on the PK isn't a constant in his game. He goes in extended stretches of good play where a lot of his bad habits aren't a constant, then he goes in stretches where he's a mess all over the ice, complete with the compulsive sliding play which is literally a cancer on his game. He's been in a bad habit stretch since about Feb 1 at least.
Here's Nurse's season by my eye:
October - mid-November - total disaster
Mid-November - February 1 - outstanding. Key cog to the winning streak. Beginning to think this coaching staff is the one to break the code on him and steady his game.
Feb 1 - present - right back to the play from the start of the year. Swimming all over the ice, getting lit up by awful play on the PK, erratic play in general.
Of any player, Nurse is the one where it's pretty clear that "luck" isn't what is causing him to make horrendous defensive plays that are ending up in his net. The sad thing is it's fixable, even if the only thing was changed was getting rid of the "slide" it would make a massive difference in his game. Sadly though, it appears that short of literally putting a shock collar on him it seems to be something that will never go away.
frag2
Registered User
- Mar 8, 2006
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I should've clarified, him going on down in general, whether its one 1 knee or laying flat, guy isn't helping his goalie.
bobbythebrain
Registered User
- Jul 30, 2016
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Goalies have a hard time reading off him. The amount of passes that go thru his sprawls is very high. It's not a stetch to say a goalie has a hard time tracking a puck thru that..
Also, his kneel down block attempts usually impede goalies. Look no further than the start this year. He was all over the map positionally and close to 50% of the goals were going in thru him screening the goalie.
It was amazing seeing how many ppl were blaming our goalies vs acknowledging the scrrens. I can think of 2 in particular that everyone ragged on the goalies. Boesers goal in the Van spanking and Braden Schneiders top goal snipe. One went off Nurse trying to block 5ft infont of his goalie. The other was also him kneeling and missing.
Guarantee our goalies read off players like Ekholm and Bouchard when anticipating where the shots are coming from
The last 2 years nurse has been .860 save% on the PK. Ekholm had a .790 as an oiler last year.
Neither of those players is doing anything different than they normally did
I agree, just using this small sample size is silly when there’s much larger samples of him being .2 higher for on ice save %
guymez
The Seldom Seen Kid
- Mar 3, 2004
- 33,278
- 13,136
Absolutely. Less Nurse equals a better chance of winning.
Nurse should be a top option in every possible way. Especially for his massive $9.25M cap hit.
Instead he needs to be sheltered. He needs a D partner to make him better.
Nurse is too much of a liability....espcially for the price.
If at all possible he should be traded this summer. IMO.
Especially with Draisaitls and McDavids new contracts on the horizon.
There are other teams that can afford that money....this isnt one of them.
McDNicks17
Moderator
I don’t remember any posts from Willis when Nurse had the best PK GA/60 on the team for the first 45 games of the season.
CantHaveTkachev
Legends
he's playing his worse stretch of hockey in a looong time (although he was good against Colorado and Calgary)
let's not forget he had the 2nd best +/- last year on the team...and the best +/- for D on the team in 21/22
he was tied with McDavid for best +/- on the team at +71 the previous 3 years (2nd best overall since the McDavid era started in 2015)
it can be done with him, he just needs shake out of it
let's not forget he had the 2nd best +/- last year on the team...and the best +/- for D on the team in 21/22
he was tied with McDavid for best +/- on the team at +71 the previous 3 years (2nd best overall since the McDavid era started in 2015)
it can be done with him, he just needs shake out of it
Wow. I don’t see how the Oilers go deep in the playoffs. Holland, once again, failed to fill a need.
Kolja
1-5-6-14
- Oct 30, 2011
- 782
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That Twitter fails to realize that nurse and ceci are still deployed as a second pair.
And they still see more time against elites than kulak and desharnais
McDNicks17
Moderator
bucks_oil
Registered User
- Aug 25, 2005
- 8,399
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n-size is a legit point.
but counterpoint: yeah maybe. It's a lot more plausible that Nurse has been making bad reads/plays on the PK over the last 25 games which is impacting his numbers vs Skinner going through a similar stretch but only when Nurse is on the ice and not the other guys.
Look it could be an unlucky stretch, where a few small events (goals against) impacts his numbers through no fault of Nurse. Yes it can happen. But I'm rejecting the notion that it could only be luck, as your original post implied. The opposition is executing quality plays when he is on the ice, but not when he's off. It's far more likely to suggest that: a) quality of comp if he's out there vs top unit... maybe his deployment changed?, or b) Nurse is influencing the ability of the opponent to execute quality plays.... or finally then in distant third c) just bad luck and the tyranny of small numbers (since the numbers aren't that small and the difference is great).
By the way... it doesn't necessarily mean Nurse is bad... maybe Ekholm and Desharnais are just that good. To my eye that jives.
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