Player Discussion Darnell Nurse is a #1 dman

bucks_oil

Registered User
Aug 25, 2005
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Wow. I don’t see how the Oilers go deep in the playoffs. Holland, once again, failed to fill a need.

Lol... I'm chuckling at NHL Sid's conclusion that "Desharnais has not excelled in this increased role". Lol... based on what a -2.6 DFF%. Sometimes you need to step back and look at the actual numbers. Desharnais has exactly ZERO goals against vs Elites in this sample. ZERO. Isn't that.... PERFECT?

He also has zero goals for, which is not a surprise. He get's d-zone draws, told to win a battle, get the puck out and change. His 50:50 GF%? Well isn't that what it looks like when an elite stay-at-home role player does his job vs the best in the league?
 

guymez

The Seldom Seen Kid
Mar 3, 2004
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Lol... I'm chuckling at NHL Sid's conclusion that "Desharnais has not excelled in this increased role". Lol... based on what a -2.6 DFF%. Sometimes you need to step back and look at the actual numbers. Desharnais has exactly ZERO goals against vs Elites in this sample. ZERO. Isn't that.... PERFECT?

He also has zero goals for, which is not a surprise. He get's d-zone draws, told to win a battle, get the puck out and change. His 50:50 GF%? Well isn't that what it looks like when an elite stay-at-home role player does his job vs the best in the league?
Fair point.
I would also say the same thing about the 4th line. If they can accomplish the feat of allowing zero goals against...thats a job well done.
Dont care how much they score.
 
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Tobias Kahun

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Oct 3, 2017
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Lol... I'm chuckling at NHL Sid's conclusion that "Desharnais has not excelled in this increased role". Lol... based on what a -2.6 DFF%. Sometimes you need to step back and look at the actual numbers. Desharnais has exactly ZERO goals against vs Elites in this sample. ZERO. Isn't that.... PERFECT?

He also has zero goals for, which is not a surprise. He get's d-zone draws, told to win a battle, get the puck out and change. His 50:50 GF%? Well isn't that what it looks like when an elite stay-at-home role player does his job vs the best in the league?
He has a 49% ozone faceoffs since March 3rd. He’s not getting a heavy d zone push against elites
 
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McDNicks17

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Lol... I'm chuckling at NHL Sid's conclusion that "Desharnais has not excelled in this increased role". Lol... based on what a -2.6 DFF%. Sometimes you need to step back and look at the actual numbers. Desharnais has exactly ZERO goals against vs Elites in this sample. ZERO. Isn't that.... PERFECT?

He also has zero goals for, which is not a surprise. He get's d-zone draws, told to win a battle, get the puck out and change. His 50:50 GF%? Well isn't that what it looks like when an elite stay-at-home role player does his job vs the best in the league?
Same for Nurse. Apparently he’s a bum because he’s given up 2 goals in over a month haha.

Oilers twitter is the worst at making sweeping judgements based on almost nothing.
 

bucks_oil

Registered User
Aug 25, 2005
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He has a 49% ozone faceoffs since March 3rd. He’s not getting a heavy d zone push against elites

And? The stats showed by Sid were only the outscoring numbers vs Elites.

Do you think Knobloch is throwing Desharnais out there vs MacKinnon and expecting him to outscore him? Or would a saw-off be ok?

I say that would be a huge win. He can go about the outscoring part of the equation vs secondary comp, no?

Anyway, Sid's conclusion was not supported by his own data... that's my point.
 

McDNicks17

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And? The stats showed by Sid were only the outscoring numbers vs Elites.

Do you think Knobloch is throwing Desharnais out there vs MacKinnon and expecting him to outscore him? Or would a saw-off be ok?

I say that would be a huge win. He can go about the outscoring part of the equation vs secondary comp, no?

Anyway, Sid's conclusion was not supported by his own data... that's my point.
Unfortunately that's most of the "analytics" posts on Oilers twitter.

They conveniently never add context. Like that same website where Sid got his numbers has a WOWY page. If you plug that time frame in there, you can see that Ekholm played over three times more minutes with McDavid than Nurse did. Hmm. I wonder if that would affect the numbers.

edit: And remember McDrai spent quite a bit of time together in March, so Ekholm also played more than twice the minutes with Draisaitl too. It's mindboggling to pretend the comparison is on an even playing field.
 
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McDNicks17

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Not to mention his stupid "Nurse/Ceci are the third pairing" conclusion.

They played a whopping 20 minutes together(aka less than 1/4 of Nurse's minutes) against elite comp during his sample size. And funny enough their DFF%Rel was +9.9 together. Desharnais' CTOI% is up because he played literally half his minutes with Nurse in an elevated role.

I don't know if these guys are purposefully doing this or they just have no idea what they're talking about, but it triggers me so hard haha. It's like they just hope no one is bored enough to look into the bullshit they're peddling.
 

Sra1974

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Oct 8, 2019
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At that point it’s bad luck.

30% is an absurd difference. If any player was shooting 35% for 25 games, we’d be talking about them having the hottest hot streak of their life.
Look I tend to be more of a nurse supporter than a lot of people, I think he gets a rough ride at times.

But I can’t just dismiss it purely as bad luck, we’d have to do a lot of film breakdown. I think if a goalie can struggle for a stretch, or an offensive player fail to score goals then I think it’s equally as likely that a d man can struggle in his reads and execution. That could very well be what we are seeing here, I don’t think it means he’s awful of can’t do better, I don’t think he’s playing his best though.
 
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PositiveCashFlow

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Jul 10, 2007
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He’s a good defenceman just overpaid by a few mill. Swap his salary with Ekholms and it’s not even a discussion
 

CROTT

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Aug 25, 2007
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He’s a good defenceman just overpaid by a few mill. Swap his salary with Ekholms and it’s not even a discussion

I was thinking more of a comparable to Reilly's contract in TOR, might still be an over pay at times but thats usually the Oilers MO anyway. At almost 2 million (1.75 if exact dollar amount) less it would be more reasonable, just goes to show how great of a contract NAS signed Ekholm too guess he was stuck in Josi's shadow.
 

CookiesAndMilk

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So everyone was hating Nurse, now everyone is defending Nurse. Where did we land on him?
He won't go anywere, so hating him is just wasting your time and energy and is as equally dumb as Darnell's patented starfish move.

He does a lot of things well but is prone to mistakes and may not have the highest Hockey IQ. I guess other teams have similar problems, ours is just very expensive and a bit overpaid. Holland and Nurse both f***ed up on that contract.

But let's be honest, would you say no to more money?
 
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McDNicks17

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Look I tend to be more of a nurse supporter than a lot of people, I think he gets a rough ride at times.

But I can’t just dismiss it purely as bad luck, we’d have to do a lot of film breakdown. I think if a goalie can struggle for a stretch, or an offensive player fail to score goals then I think it’s equally as likely that a d man can struggle in his reads and execution. That could very well be what we are seeing here, I don’t think it means he’s awful of can’t do better, I don’t think he’s playing his best though.
It isn't all bad luck, but a .650 onSV% is bonkers. If we're blaming that solely on Nurse, we're not talking about Nurse making the odd shot here and there harder, we're talking about Nurse making every shot 30% harder for his goalie. Does that really sound possible?

It's too bad the media doesn't actually want to do a good job. Willis could break down the 15 goals against on Nurse over that stretch and we could see how much of it is his fault, but instead he just posts flimsy GF% numbers to support a preconceived narrative.
 

Sra1974

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Oct 8, 2019
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It isn't all bad luck, but a .650 onSV% is bonkers. If we're blaming that solely on Nurse, we're not talking about Nurse making the odd shot here and there harder, we're talking about Nurse making every shot 30% harder for his goalie. Does that really sound possible?

It's too bad the media doesn't actually want to do a good job. Willis could break down the 15 goals against on Nurse over that stretch and we could see how much of it is his fault, but instead he just posts flimsy GF% numbers to support a preconceived narrative.
No argument from me on the media. Stars are useful, but I fear at times they are used with looking at any contextual elements. The media is paid to do better and could do so.

As for your first point, it goes back to my first post in response to you. Does it really seem possible that Nurse is just having bad luck compared to others and that solely explains it. The question works in both directions pretty effectively. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle of it.
 

CupofOil

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Aug 20, 2009
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Absolutely. Less Nurse equals a better chance of winning.

Nurse should be a top option in every possible way. Especially for his massive $9.25M cap hit.
Instead he needs to be sheltered. He needs a D partner to make him better.
Nurse is too much of a liability....espcially for the price.

If at all possible he should be traded this summer. IMO.
Especially with Draisaitls and McDavids new contracts on the horizon.
There are other teams that can afford that money....this isnt one of them.
His contract would be harder to move than Campbell's. There's just no way that they can conceivably trade him, that contract is an immovable object.
 

bobbythebrain

Registered User
Jul 30, 2016
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Honestly can't see why anyone is defending Nurse anymore. He was a MASSIVE reason to the poor start. Not the only reason , but a big one for sure.
He's been inconsistent all year soo much so to earn a demotion. That's troubling for a guy being paid to be your #1.

Then that brings us to playoffs. In no way, shape or form can one argue he's good in the postseason. He actually gets worse. So it's scary to think if he pulls his natural digression for the post season, how can it be worse than his year.

Let's just hope the addition of Henrique will off set the defensive pressure
 

Canovin

1% is the new 11.5%
Oct 27, 2010
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Been saying this forever. He's a #3 who's paid like a franchise D. This year, he's been playing more like a #4. His ability to play big minutes hid a lot of his flaws. He get danced around but people would just say, well 25 mins a game
 
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K1984

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Feb 7, 2008
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It isn't all bad luck, but a .650 onSV% is bonkers. If we're blaming that solely on Nurse, we're not talking about Nurse making the odd shot here and there harder, we're talking about Nurse making every shot 30% harder for his goalie. Does that really sound possible?

It's too bad the media doesn't actually want to do a good job. Willis could break down the 15 goals against on Nurse over that stretch and we could see how much of it is his fault, but instead he just posts flimsy GF% numbers to support a preconceived narrative.

Just off the top of my head recently with Nurse on the PK:

In Ottawa (PKGA 1) - he runs over to opposite side of the ice leaving the space he was supposed to be covering open. Easy goal.

In Ottawa (PKGA 2) - he takes nobody, causally lays his stick down on the ice, and watches an easy saucer pass go over him for another easy goal.

In Dallas - see Ottawa PKGA 2. Lays his stick on the ice as if he's doing something, puck goes through him to Seguin for a tap in.

The three above were especially egregious as the second screw up in Ottawa cost us the game and the screw up in Dallas opened the floodgates for them. In Dallas we went 2/2 on the kill when Darnell mercifully was off with a 10 min misconduct, then they made short work of us the second he was back.

This is the common theme - he flat out doesn't know where to be then covers nobody allowing the ultra high danger cross ice pass or being slow to read pressuring the shooter coming in off the wall. These aren't random point shots going in, these are plays going directly through him and into open nets.
 
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Perfect_Drug

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Mar 24, 2006
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Fair point.
I would also say the same thing about the 4th line. If they can accomplish the feat of allowing zero goals against...thats a job well done.
Dont care how much they score.
Situationally that only works when we have a lead.

0 goals for means they aren't effective situationally for a significant portion of most games.
 
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guymez

The Seldom Seen Kid
Mar 3, 2004
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Situationally that only works when we have a lead.

0 goals for means they aren't effective situationally for a significant portion of most games.
Look at it this way...if they score 3 and give up 5 that clearly isnt a win.
If they manage to maintain possession and keep things even...that is a win.
Especially in the playoffs.
 

Perfect_Drug

Registered User
Mar 24, 2006
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Look at it this way...if they score 3 and give up 5 that clearly isnt a win.
If they manage to maintain possession and keep things even...that is a win.
Especially in the playoffs.
I mean that's one very dry way of looking at it.

The other way is, if you're down a goal in the playoffs, you can't play the line at all
 

CrazyJoeDavola

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Jun 17, 2011
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He would be a solid #2 if he didn't break the puck out worse than Steve Staois. It's a turnover every time. Just reverses it around to the other team or panic chips it off the boards to a pinching opponent. Granted, our whole d-core pretty much does that so it might be coaching, but you expect more from him.
 

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