Player Discussion Dan Girardi Part VI

[Ail]

Unlike a lot of people in the analytics world, I very highly value the viewpoint of the people involved in the game.

And no, I don't think the majority of shot attempts from high danger areas are actually scoring chances.

If you could pick one area of the ice for every single Ranger shot to come from every game, where would you choose and why?

 

[Blais to Win]

That's about the only positive thing you could say about Girardi right now--a $5.5M defenseman is most suitable for #6 minutes, that's 10 even strength minutes and 3 PK minutes per game.

That's an embarrassment as a player. I hope Dan sucks it up and retires honestly. I'm being generous by saying he stopped earning that paycheck starting last year--let's no go back to that Stanley Cup FInal when he really started losing it

Sorry do you think injuries and age don't happen? It's not an embarrassment. It's a fact of life. That's what management is for. They've got to figure out a way around it.

Meanwhile DG was a big part of our recent years of great hockey. I thank him for that.

 

[True Blue]

That's an embarrassment as a player.

Wait, what is the embarrassment? There are plenty of players who are embarrassments to the NHL. Girardi is hardly one of them.

I hope Dan sucks it up and retires honestly.

Would you? Be honest here. I contention is that not many, if at all, would.

I'm being generous by saying he stopped earning that paycheck starting last year--let's no go back to that Stanley Cup FInal when he really started losing it

The list of who did not earn a paycheck for the Finals is long and plentiful. Girardi is not biggest reason that the Rangers lost.

 

[mandiblesofdoom]

How much leash do you all want to give Girardi this year?

Do you think he should have sat more last year?

 

[True Blue]

How much leash do you all want to give Girardi this year?

Do you think he should have sat more last year?

Right now, I think that he is being outplayed by several people. What that means as far as what AV does, I have no idea.

I thought that he should have sat more last year. And AV claimed that was the plan. And then promptly decided never to rest him. So who knows how it plays out this year?

 

[mandiblesofdoom]

AV is hopeless. I doubt he will ever do the right thing.

If it were me I'd not play Girardi till he shows he is better. We have others who can either do it or need playing time to show what they've got. Playing Girardi does not allow that to happen.

but I'm interested in knowing what people here think - would you sit him?

 

[Anthony5967]

AV is hopeless. I doubt he will ever do the right thing.

If it were me I'd not play Girardi till he shows he is better. We have others who can either do it or need playing time to show what they've got. Playing Girardi does not allow that to happen.

but I'm interested in knowing what people here think - would you sit him?

Yea I would sit him. You have proven you can't trade him, he is not as effective as he once was. Your whole game plan is based off d men being able to retrieve pucks and quickly get it up the ice. Other teams just oughta chip pucks behind Staal and G all night. G to the bench. What is there to lose? And on October 6th we still have Tanner Glass. What a disgrace. Pens won with speed, tireless forechecking and skill. We have all that up front but instead we will sit guy like Vesey, Buch or Pirri for Tanner Glass. I blame Gorton though for even allowing it to come to this. He should have buried him in the AHL.

 

[TheTakedown]

How much leash do you all want to give Girardi this year?

Do you think he should have sat more last year?

tonight is a HUGE test for him. If Skjei plays poorly on his pairing, it's going to be widely understood that whatever pairing Girardi is on will be a detriment to the teams play.

Again, AV sees some of himself in Girardi, which is why he gets such a long leash from him, but I'm expecting Gorton to take away AV's toys before the season starts.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Right now, I think that he is being outplayed by several people. What that means as far as what AV does, I have no idea.

I thought that he should have sat more last year. And AV claimed that was the plan. And then promptly decided never to rest him. So who knows how it plays out this year?

All of this. Well said. Ideally, he's sitting often enough this year to be "fresh". I highly doubt that will happen, though.

 

[Tawnos]

If you could pick one area of the ice for every single Ranger shot to come from every game, where would you choose and why?

The area of the ice is only the barest part of whether or not something is a scoring chance. Obviously, I'd want all shots to come from high danger areas, but that's not the problem. A hard shot from the point that passes through a screen and the goalie reacts late to is a better scoring chance than a flubbed shot from 3 feet away that the goalie is in great position to make a save on. When you have a situation like that, it compromises the validity of the statistic, since no metric I've seen accounts for those kinds of variances. Some admit that rebound shots and shots that come after passing through Vally's royal road are scoring chances and try to incorporate the data. Those usually still count all shot attempts in high danger areas.

It's all subjective definition and that undermines the objectivity of the concusions. One place I read said that they included blocked shots in high danger areas because they're likely open net chances or some such explanation, and I take issue with that. A blocked shot when the shooter has an open net is a scoring chance prevented and should absolutely not be included. This kind of thing just scratches the surface of the flaws in that kind of analysis. I could go on and on about this

 

[silverfish]

The area of the ice is only the barest part of whether or not something is a scoring chance.

That's why things like Corsica Hockey's xG are a great time.

http://www.corsica.hockey/blog/2016/03/03/shot-quality-and-expected-goals-part-i/

Shot type (Wrist shot, slap shot, deflection, etc.)
Shot distance (Adjusted4 distance from net)
Shot angle (Angle in absolute degrees from the central line normal to the goal line)
Rebounds (Boolean – Whether or not the shot was a rebound)
Rush shots (Boolean – Whether or not the shot was a rush shot)
Strength state (Boolean – Whether or not the shot was taken on the powerplay)5

The xG model is what feeds the scoring chance metric on Corsica Hockey.

 

[Mac n Gs]

That's why things like Corsica Hockey's xG are a great time.

http://www.corsica.hockey/blog/2016/03/03/shot-quality-and-expected-goals-part-i/



The xG model is what feeds the scoring chance metric on Corsica Hockey.

Chris Boyle also has his Shot Quality Project. Scoring chance/shot quality metrics have come a long way since WOI first started.

 

[Tawnos]

That's why things like Corsica Hockey's xG are a great time.

http://www.corsica.hockey/blog/2016/03/03/shot-quality-and-expected-goals-part-i/



The xG model is what feeds the scoring chance metric on Corsica Hockey.

That model adds a single variable truly not accounted for in other models: shot type. Shot distance and angle are simply another way of saying shot area. Rebounds and rush shots are accounted for in other models I've seen. You can include PP or only use ES as you decide is the case.

It's a good effort that STILL doesn't provide enough context, since a huge part of whether or not something should be considered a scoring chance for or against is the positioning of the defending team's players.

 

[silverfish]

That model adds a single variable truly not accounted for in other models: shot type. Shot distance and angle are simply another way of saying shot area. Rebounds and rush shots are accounted for in other models I've seen. You can include PP or only use ES as you decide is the case.

It's a good effort that STILL doesn't provide enough context, since a huge part of whether or not something should be considered a scoring chance for or against is the positioning of the defending team's players.

Wouldn't you say that if a shot occurred from what is generally referred to as the 'high danger area', that more often than not, there was a defensive breakdown somewhere?

 

[Tawnos]

Wouldn't you say that if a shot occurred from what is generally referred to as the 'high danger area', that more often than not, there was a defensive breakdown somewhere?

No, I wouldn't. That's because, at least for me, most plays in the NHL are positive. Shots occurring in the high danger area are more often the result of a good play by offensive players than they are simply the result of breakdowns by the defensive players. Sometimes they're the result of both.

The same is true in the opposite. A good defensive play doesn't happen because an offensive player makes a mistake. Honestly, this is a much broader discussion, but it's a root of why I despise Eddie Olcyzk. Everything happens as the result of someone doing something they shouldn't, with the way he calls it. And while he may be very vanilla, it's a reason I've grown to like Joe Micheletti. He rarely attributes plays to mistakes, whichever team got the chance or made the D play.

 

[alkurtz]

Ah, hate to tell many of you who think that Girardi is a graybeard baby-boomer (or worse yet a Civil War veteran), DAN GIRARDI IS HIMSELF A MILLENNIAL.

 

[Raspewtin]

the Rangers seem to have gotten the message that this is not a year of contention for them. they have no reason to play Dan Girardi in big minutes anymore (they didn't regardless though) and need to let younger players take the reigns

 

[Inferno]

the Rangers seem to have gotten the message that this is not a year of contention for them. they have no reason to play Dan Girardi in big minutes anymore (they didn't regardless though) and need to let younger players take the reigns

dan girardi would be a #8 defenseman for me this season...i think, as abhorrent as our defenseman were this preseason so far, that Skjei, McIlrath, Klein, McD, Staal, Holden, & Clendenning all outplayed him. which is really saying something considering how awful all those guys have been at various times this preseason.

 

[Ghost of jas]

the Rangers seem to have gotten the message that this is not a year of contention for them. they have no reason to play Dan Girardi in big minutes anymore (they didn't regardless though) and need to let younger players take the reigns

Gorton may have, but I'm not sure AV has.

 

[TheTakedown]

Gorton may have, but I'm not sure AV has.

Good, AV will be fired at years end, and Buek can take the reigns

 

[mrmel329]

Fire AV now

 

[Ori]

Fire AV now

What happened?
A player who decline is not on the coach - he just need to take notice.

 

[Captain Lindy]

Right now, I think that he is being outplayed by several people. What that means as far as what AV does, I have no idea.

I thought that he should have sat more last year. And AV claimed that was the plan. And then promptly decided never to rest him. So who knows how it plays out this year?

AV's theory that G was "worn out", he could have saved a lot of time and money if he sat him more last year to "rest" him and eased him back in to the lineup to get a feel of how far gone his game is. Now we wasted an entire off season and buyout period and now we're back to square one. I really wish the team fired AV right after our season ended.

 

[Machinehead]

Gorton may have, but I'm not sure AV has.

For all we know, in AV's mind, the players are all unicorns. The man is out of it.

 

[eco's bones]

Good, AV will be fired at years end, and Buek can take the reigns

The odds of Beukeboom becoming an NHL head coach any time in the near future aren't much better than mine--which is to say extremely remote. Beukeboom is yet to have his first head coaching job--he's been an assistant everywhere. He's not going to get a head coaching job in the NHL and especially not with the Rangers with no head coaching experience. Which was the motivation by the way for Ulf leaving to coach the Hurricanes AHL team.

If the Rangers fire AV you can rest assured that they will hire either a former NHL coach or someone who has had success in the AHL or maybe even college like Dave Hakstol.