OT: Covid19 (Part 14) Re-opening faceoff edition

[Milhouse40]

I mean, why even bother quarantining people if you plan on reopening school, businesses, etc. less than 2 months later (gradually but still).

It will all be for nothing. 2 months wasted inside without seeing anyone for absolutely nothing since the virus will spread like crazy as soon as they lift the quarantine, especially here in Montreal. Wearing homemade masks with butterflies on them won’t do shit for you and good luck trying to maintain a 2 meters distance in the metro at peak hours. Hospitals will be overloaded as predicted but 2 months later so I guess it’s fine. Am I missing some hint ornament are things about to get real ugly?

We are in a test….

Most people wouldn't accept to be in a program to test a new vaccine….but that's exactly what is about to happen.
We don't know if it works, we don't know if it will protect you, we don't know how long it will protect you if it does….and some will have some side effects and some will die from it.

I don't think it's a terrible idea, but it's badly executed and too soon for us in Quebec to take that road.

 

[waffledave]

I realize that eventually we need to reopen things. But to be super honest, and knowing it is selfish, my hope was that we would wait a bit and see how things go in placed like NYC so we can learn from their mistakes .

 

[SOLR]

I had a dry cough that wouldn't go away from end feb to mid march. It was there for about 20 days.

But I have asthma. It seems this cough has returned as I have been coughing for the last 5 days again.

Internal air recycling doesn't put a lot of humidity in the air, as an asthmatic you are likely to be susceptible to this.

 

[SOLR]

I realize that eventually we need to reopen things. But to be super honest, and knowing it is selfish, my hope was that we would wait a bit and see how things go in placed like NYC so we can learn from their mistakes .

I don't think it's selfish, I think it's wise as Montreal best testbed is NYC.

 

[Kriss E]

I mean, why even bother quarantining people if you plan on reopening school, businesses, etc. less than 2 months later (gradually but still).

It will all be for nothing. 2 months wasted inside without seeing anyone for absolutely nothing since the virus will spread like crazy as soon as they lift the quarantine, especially here in Montreal. Wearing homemade masks with butterflies on them won’t do shit for you and good luck trying to maintain a 2 meters distance in the metro at peak hours. Hospitals will be overloaded as predicted but 2 months later so I guess it’s fine. Am I missing something or are things about to get real ugly?

You do realize the point of quarantining wasn't to wait until there is no more risk of catch the virus right? It was about having a controlled infection rate so our hospitals don't get massively overwhelmed. Once that's settled, then it's reopening things bits by bits.
If they're looking at reopening it's because the rate in the general population isn't high anymore.

 

[scrubadam]

Something scary. they looked at 5700 hospitlizations in NYC. (study is on JAMA).

60-40 Men vs Women. Median age was in the 60's.

ICU was 14%. 64-36 Men vs Women. Median age was closer to 70.

Once you get on a Mechanical vent 80+% death rate. Basically once you get on a vent you are pretty much dead. I think for men over 65 it was like 90%+.

If your an older man and wind up on a vent your dead.

 

[hersky77]

I realize that eventually we need to reopen things. But to be super honest, and knowing it is selfish, my hope was that we would wait a bit and see how things go in placed like NYC so we can learn from their mistakes .

New York would be a good idea, if the plan was to keep the lockdown going for another 70 days or so . Since they are looking at mid June. I would look at the German model, maybe a place like Munich for Montréal.

 

[Harry22]

Something scary. they looked at 5700 hospitlizations in NYC. (study is on JAMA).

60-40 Men vs Women. Median age was in the 60's.

ICU was 14%. 64-36 Men vs Women. Median age was closer to 70.

Once you get on a Mechanical vent 80+% death rate. Basically once you get on a vent you are pretty much dead. I think for men over 65 it was like 90%+.

If your an older man and wind up on a vent your dead.

At the Jewsh hospital here, 86% of patients in ICU come out alive. So that is some good news.

 

[waffledave]

Something scary. they looked at 5700 hospitlizations in NYC. (study is on JAMA).

60-40 Men vs Women. Median age was in the 60's.

ICU was 14%. 64-36 Men vs Women. Median age was closer to 70.

Once you get on a Mechanical vent 80+% death rate. Basically once you get on a vent you are pretty much dead. I think for men over 65 it was like 90%+.

If your an older man and wind up on a vent your dead.

The reason people are dying on the vents is because ventilators cause extreme damage to the lungs with coronavirus. I really do think sooner or later they will no longer be recommending their usage outside of extreme urgent and acute situations.

Ventilators use extremely high pressure to pump oxygen to the lungs. This is done because usually they are needed with pneumonia as the lungs become hard and stiff and don't work anymore. They can handle the high pressures. But with covid this is not happening, so the high pressure air damages the lungs. They are starting to see that the lungs actually DO work well with covid, they are just not processing oxygen well. But they can breath on their own.

 

[waffledave]

New York would be a good idea, if the plan was to keep the lockdown going for another 70 days or so . Since they are looking at mid June. I would look at the German model, maybe a place like Munich for Montréal.

Honestly just, anywhere really, before us. I don't want to be the first city opening up again.

I can tell you with certainty that reopening or not, I ain't changing shit from what I do now. Not until we get to see how things go down a bit first.

 

[hersky77]

Honestly just, anywhere really, before us. I don't want to be the first city opening up again.

I can tell you with certainty that reopening or not, I ain't changing shit from what I do now. Not until we get to see how things go down a bit first.

and I don’t blame you at all, but the numbers have pretty much stagnated, and within the general population it’s pretty much plateaued.

 

[groovejuice]

I think it will be 2 years before they do this is a mass scale. Not easy to produce 100's of millions of vaccine doses let alone distribute them.

There's no reason why multiple vaccines could not be ready at approximately the same time. Research and development is going on worldwide.

 

[groovejuice]

In a pictorial dictionary, that image would represent the word "cringe".

 

[MXD]

You do realize the point of quarantining wasn't to wait until there is no more risk of catch the virus right? It was about having a controlled infection rate so our hospitals don't get massively overwhelmed. Once that's settled, then it's reopening things bits by bits.
If they're looking at reopening it's because the rate in the general population isn't high anymore.

To be honest, it was also to avoid overwhelming the Hospitals/Health System.

 

[Kriss E]

To be honest, it was also to avoid overwhelming the Hospitals/Health System.

Isn't that what I wrote? Lol..

 

[waffledave]

Update April 23: https://cdn-contenu.quebec.ca/cdn-c...ableau-milieux-de-vie-COVID-19.pdf?1586974091

Total cases: 4852 (270 new cases)

228 total facilities reporting (increase of 13)
-----
90 updated April 22
34 updated April 21
26 updated April 20
30 updated April 19
0 updated April 18
16 updated April 17
9 updated April 16
6 updated April 15
2 updated April 14
15 updated April 13 or earlier

Data is slowly becoming more up to date. An average of around 265 new cases/day over the last 10 days coming from CHSLDs only.

Hard to say if the increases are going down each day or not. They appear to be a tiny bit but with only 90/228 facilities reporting up to date info it is difficult to know for sure. There are several facilities with major, severe outbreaks that have not updated figures for 5+ days now.

Update April 24: https://cdn-contenu.quebec.ca/cdn-c...ableau-milieux-de-vie-COVID-19.pdf?1586974091

Total cases: 5077 (225 new cases)


238 total facilities (increase of 10)
-----
76 updated April 23
58 updated April 22
18 updated April 21
19 updated April 20
22 updated April 19
45 updated April 18 or earlier

Overall it is pretty much the same situation as the last 2 days, slight decrease in new cases in CHSLDs and this is reflected in the lower new cases overall today.

 

[MXD]

Isn't that what I wrote? Lol..

Lol I quoted the wrong post.

 

[waffledave]

and I don’t blame you at all, but the numbers have pretty much stagnated, and within the general population it’s pretty much plateaued.

When I say how things go down, I mean if another outbreak starts and we see an explosion of cases. I would also like more data and studies on long term effects. I may have had it already given the timing of my last illness and the symptoms, but if not I'd like to know what recovery looks like before I risk it.

There's no reason why multiple vaccines could not be ready at approximately the same time. Research and development is going on worldwide.

I am actually confident in the ability to come up with the vaccine. That's not my concern. Administering the vaccine is a monumental challenge. How could they do it? The lineups would be around the block for months. They need half a billion doses just for North America.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Why? People are not confined to their homes and are allowed to move around. In fact, Gov wants and expects all of us to get sick (50% of the population by September or something). All current measure are in place just to make sure that IRs are not overflowing.

This point seems to be missed. NB is easing restrictions effective immediately. Golf courses will be allowed to open, I’m so excited for that and this weird Two way family bubbles implementation. It’s a good first step at least.

 

[groovejuice]

He did lose his medical license.

That's not nearly sufficient punishment for the fraud he perpetrated and deaths he likely caused.

I'm far from being a capital punishment supporter, but this case screams for it.

 

[groovejuice]

When I say how things go down, I mean if another outbreak starts and we see an explosion of cases. I would also like more data and studies on long term effects. I may have had it already given the timing of my last illness and the symptoms, but if not I'd like to know what recovery looks like before I risk it.



I am actually confident in the ability to come up with the vaccine. That's not my concern. Administering the vaccine is a monumental challenge. How could they do it? The lineups would be around the block for months. They need half a billion doses just for North America.

The manufacturing would be 24/7 all over the world. Triage the inoculations for those in greater risk.

 

[Per Sjoblom]

It's actually stunning to scientists that people who are asthmatic doesn't seems to have a problem with this virus.
In fact, there's so many things with this virus that we don't fully understand yet.

Just learned this morning that one of the symptoms is swelling purple toes.

No swollen purple pants?

 

[Runner77]

Also, what does this mean for visiting family now? My father isn't in the best of health, does he still have to stay inside? Can I visit him? He's definitely in a high risk group with all his ailments.

We've adopted a no visiting approach for anyone. Only time I've seen older relatives was when I did shopping for them. They greeted me at their door wearing a mask and they retreated inside while I left their front door open long enough for fresh air to get in. Then I dropped the boxes right behind the front door, greeted them at their window and left.

When it gets warm enough, I'll go see them by spending time with them outside only, with all of us wearing masks and with a significant distance between us. That's as good as it's going to get until I get convinced that I should be behaving differently.

 

[Kriss E]

I realize that eventually we need to reopen things. But to be super honest, and knowing it is selfish, my hope was that we would wait a bit and see how things go in placed like NYC so we can learn from their mistakes .

You can't really compare Mtl to NYC. They had to send in the army in the streets of NYC. I don't know the exact numbers but I'm gonna go out on a limb and assume the community based infection rate in NYC was much higher than here. They have 150K cases.
Leagult said it, if you separate the CHLSDs with the rest, the situation is pretty much stable and under control.
Still need to bear in mind that the virus isn't dead, so some measures need to remain in place, but no need to have a pretty much full on lockdown anymore.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Don't kind yourself. If the economy could handle it, you'd be staying indoors for much longer. Mental health is the PR spin for reopening. The reality is that you will have to play russian routlette until a vaccine for money.

There is no Russian roulette dude. You overstating the risk here. The measures were never meant to be in place forever. They were to protect the healthcare system, for the most part that has been done. I’ve talked to my wife and her nursing friends and some of the hospitals are sending nurses home and going to minimal manning because there is nothing for them to do. The mortality rate is likely a bit worse than the flu and mostly for older people or younger people with other health problems. I can’t wait for things to start opening up. It’s too bad people ever had to lose their jobs in the first place over this. Bring me some sunshine and a golf course. I’m all set, if I get the damn thing there is almost no chance it will kill me. Can’t live in fear like that forever. I don’t mind continuing social distancing to protect the vulnerable, but I believe this thing has gone overboard. I’d like to hook up with KrissE over a few pops and get on with life.