OT: Covid19 (Part 14) Re-opening faceoff edition

[llamateizer]

We are April 24th, I do not have future data.

More young people will die of COVID-19.

Sweden have
4 deaths : 20-29
8 : 30-39
24 : 40-49
74 : 50-59
171 : 60-69


in quebec
0-49 10 deaths
50-69 114 deaths.


I'm for re-opening knowing that there will be casualties (I'm so happy not taking that decision)

 

[Andy]

I'm just wondering how we're going to control the spread by reopening. I just can't envision a scenario where we're not back in lockdown a month after reopening.

The metros are packed. Many people work in small office spaces with multiple colleagues. Some people work in environments where documents are physically shared.

Some people work in huge towers where hundreds of people are taking elevators to their offices.

It's almost like we're just accepting that this will get out of control.

Not to mention the amount of people who will interpret "gradual reopening" as "life is back to normal." We already have people who don't give a F about the lockdown measurements.

 

[Harry22]

I know someone cited the the death toll% of the total deaths for each age group.

What I would like to see is the death% of an age group relative to the number of individuals infected in that age group.

Example, the number of people between 35-45 infected and the number of those that died.

In Quebec as of April 24th:

This means:

Cases (22,616):

3,189 under 30
2,895 30-39
3,664 40-49
3,483 50-59
2,262 60-69
2,035 70-79
2,963 80-89
2,125 over 90

Deaths (1,340):

0 under 30
1 30-39
9 40-49
23 50-59
91 60-69
255 70-79
547 80-89
414 over 90

With this data, the confirmed death rate on confirmed cases is:

0% under 30
0.03% 30-39
0.24% 40-49
0.66% 50-59
4% 60-69
12.5% 70-79
18.5% 80-89
19.5% over 90

 

[Andy]

In Quebec as of April 24th:

View attachment 343403

This means:

Cases (22,616):

3,189 under 30
2,895 30-39
3,664 40-49
3,483 50-59
2,262 60-69
2,035 70-79
2,963 80-89
2,125 over 90

Deaths (1,340):

0 under 30
1 30-39
9 40-49
23 50-59
91 60-69
255 70-79
547 80-89
414 over 90

Thanks for this!

 

[GlassesJacketShirt]

In retrospect, I most certainly had the, ahem, "invisible enemy" back in Feb. I was diagnosed with the flu in March, but I wondered why I got it so quick after recovering from a lesser illness not one month earlier. Would explain a lot.

 

[Treb]

That f****** British guy who became the anti-vacc hero (Wakefield)) should be charged with homicide.

He did lose his medical license.

 

[Andy]

In retrospect, I most certainly had the, ahem, "invisible enemy" back in Feb. I was diagnosed with the flu in March, but I wondered why I got it so quick after recovering from a lesser illness not one month earlier. Would explain a lot.

I had a dry cough that wouldn't go away from end feb to mid march. It was there for about 20 days.

But I have asthma. It seems this cough has returned as I have been coughing for the last 5 days again.

 

[Kriss E]

I knew a gentleman who was born on a ship in the middle of the Pacific,what would that make him otherwise?

A shipwreck.

 

[llamateizer]

I'm just wondering how we're going to control the spread by reopening. I just can't envision a scenario where we're not back in lockdown a month after reopening.

The metros are packed. Many people work in small office spaces with multiple colleagues. Some people work in environments where documents are physically shared.

Some people work in huge towers where hundreds of people are taking elevators to their offices.

It's almost like we're just accepting that this will get out of control.

The key word is progressive.
People working from home will be at home for 1-2 months.

Gathering 10 people or more would be banned in Saskatchewan

http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/6876405/Re-Open-Saskatchewan-Final.pdf


Phase One: Re-opening previously restricted medical services Opening of golf courses, parks and campgrounds
Phase Two: Re-opening retail and select personal care services
Phase Three: Re-opening restaurants and food services, gyms and fitness centres, licensed establishments and child care facilities
Re-opening remaining personal care services Increasing the size of public and private gatherings to 15 people
Phase Four: Re-opening indoor and outdoor recreation facilities Increasing the size of public and private gatherings to 30 people
Phase Five: Consider lifting long-term restrictions

 

[CrAzYNiNe]

Any news on daycares and schools? I’m at a loss with what to do with my son. Daycares are a Petri dish... so if he goes to daycare we can’t see family until a vaccine?

 

[Treb]

In retrospect, I most certainly had the, ahem, "invisible enemy" back in Feb. I was diagnosed with the flu in March, but I wondered why I got it so quick after recovering from a lesser illness not one month earlier. Would explain a lot.

Maybe, or maybe you got something else. I certainly wouldn't use the word certainly there until you get an antibody test when we finally have one that is decent.

 

[Kriss E]

I had a dry cough that wouldn't go away from end feb to mid march. It was there for about 20 days.

But I have asthma. It seems this cough has returned as I have been coughing for the last 5 days again.

Might be from being inside too much..lol Get some fresh air.

 

[LeHab]

I know someone cited the the death toll% of the total deaths for each age group.

What I would like to see is the death% of an age group relative to the number of individuals infected in that age group.

Example, the number of people between 35-45 infected and the number of those that died.

You will have to wait for serological surveys to know infection rate. Current case count is pretty useless as testing is now targeted to the vulnerable population and front line workers.

Current preliminary surveys in US and Europe point to 10x to 80x times of cases that were not identified by testing. In other words for every tested positive case you have 10 to 80 cases that were never diagnosed.

For example here is NY state premliminary data from 3000 samples:

New York antibody study estimates 13.9% of residents have had the coronavirus, Gov. Cuomo says

NY city may be already at +20% of immunized population. Sampling was not randomized so this has to be taken with caution.

Another one for LA County:

New research shows LA County's rate of infection could be 40 times higher than number of confirmed cases

 

[Andy]

Might be from being inside too much..lol Get some fresh air.

My wife and I go for a walk every morning and evening.

 

[Harry22]

I had a dry cough that wouldn't go away from end feb to mid march. It was there for about 20 days.

But I have asthma. It seems this cough has returned as I have been coughing for the last 5 days again.

Asthma people are apparently less vulnerable, especially if young. A study found that they are used to some kind of inflammation and their immune reaction is not that overbearing. Obviously, with age, this changes and if the asthma is severe or not. I need to find the source.

 

[CreamOfTheCrop]

In retrospect, I most certainly had the, ahem, "invisible enemy" back in Feb. I was diagnosed with the flu in March, but I wondered why I got it so quick after recovering from a lesser illness not one month earlier. Would explain a lot.

Same here, felt like shyt. Thought I would die in my sleep while caughing, I've never used as many kleenexs of my life ( yupppp) this last a good week, no energy, sleeping 16h + but only one night of fever, and it was apocalypse style type of fever. Dr gave me some meds, it didnt do shyt.

 

[llamateizer]

In Quebec as of April 24th:

With this data, the confirmed death rate on confirmed cases is:

0% under 30
0.03% 30-39
0.24% 40-49
0.66% 50-59
4% 60-69
12.5% 70-79
18.5% 80-89
19.5% over 90

Sweden Link: Experience
Cases are approximate as I dont have full data

Age	Cases	Deaths	Death Rate	Quebec
under 30	1609	4	0.25%	0.00%
30-39	1700	8	0.47%	0.03%
40-49	2300	24	1.04%	0.24%
50-59	3100	74	2.39%	0.66%
60-69	2300	171	7.43%	4.00%
70-79	2300	507	22.04%	12.50%
80-89	2800	853	30.46%	18.50%
Over 90	1400	511	36.50%	19.50%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Milhouse40]

Asthma people are apparently less vulnerable, especially if young. A study found that they are used to some kind of inflammation and their immune reaction is not that overbearing. Obviously, with age, this changes and if the asthma is severe or not. I need to find the source.

It's actually stunning to scientists that people who are asthmatic doesn't seems to have a problem with this virus.
In fact, there's so many things with this virus that we don't fully understand yet.

Just learned this morning that one of the symptoms is swelling purple toes.

 

[dinodebino]

So, outside of the CHSLDs, number of hospitalisation and ICU are good? Need to reopen some regions in about two weeks time. Let us in Gatineau be the guinee pigs for the rest of the province, as we have a city big enough to be a good sounding board.

As for Montreal, well...it's Montreal. What did you expect?

 

[Harry22]

Sweden Link: Experience
Cases are approximate as I dont have full data

Age	Cases	Deaths	Death Rate	Quebec
under 30	1609	4	0.25%	0.00%
30-39	1700	8	0.47%	0.03%
40-49	2300	24	1.04%	0.24%
50-59	3100	74	2.39%	0.66%
60-69	2300	171	7.43%	4.00%
70-79	2300	507	22.04%	12.50%
80-89	2800	853	30.46%	18.50%
Over 90	1400	511	36.50%	19.50%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Very interesting. The data we are sharing is so incomplete however. We do hot have the actual number of cases or even deaths for that matter.

 

[Andy]

Asthma people are apparently less vulnerable, especially if young. A study found that they are used to some kind of inflammation and their immune reaction is not that overbearing. Obviously, with age, this changes and if the asthma is severe or not. I need to find the source.

Well that is a reassuring! My asthma has really worried me.

 

[Harry22]

It's actually stunning to scientists that people who are asthmatic doesn't seems to have a problem with this virus.
In fact, there's so many things with this virus that we don't fully understand yet.

Just learned this morning that one of the symptoms is swelling purple toes.

Viruses are not the same at all lol. It seems like asthmatic people are used to inflammation which makes their immune system have a less overbearing reaction that young healthy adults. That means they do not overproduce white blood cells and thus have less severe symptoms. Now, while healthy young people might have it tough, the vast majority will survive. It seems like age is a much bigger factor than some underlying conditions.

 

[HabsCowboysOwn]

I mean, why even bother quarantining people if you plan on reopening school, businesses, etc. less than 2 months later (gradually but still).

It will all be for nothing. 2 months wasted inside without seeing anyone for absolutely nothing since the virus will spread like crazy as soon as they lift the quarantine, especially here in Montreal. Wearing homemade masks with butterflies on them won’t do shit for you and good luck trying to maintain a 2 meters distance in the metro at peak hours. Hospitals will be overloaded as predicted but 2 months later so I guess it’s fine. Am I missing something or are things about to get real ugly?

 

[hersky77]

I'm just wondering how we're going to control the spread by reopening. I just can't envision a scenario where we're not back in lockdown a month after reopening.

The metros are packed. Many people work in small office spaces with multiple colleagues. Some people work in environments where documents are physically shared.

Some people work in huge towers where hundreds of people are taking elevators to their offices.

It's almost like we're just accepting that this will get out of control.

Not to mention the amount of people who will interpret "gradual reopening" as "life is back to normal." We already have people who don't give a F about the lockdown measurements.

The thing is, he’s not saying any of that.

 

[Harry22]

What I find disgraceful is how we have abandoned our elderly. We will all be old at some point and karma is a bitch.

 

[Kriss E]

I'm just wondering how we're going to control the spread by reopening. I just can't envision a scenario where we're not back in lockdown a month after reopening.

The metros are packed. Many people work in small office spaces with multiple colleagues. Some people work in environments where documents are physically shared.

Some people work in huge towers where hundreds of people are taking elevators to their offices.

It's almost like we're just accepting that this will get out of control.

Not to mention the amount of people who will interpret "gradual reopening" as "life is back to normal." We already have people who don't give a F about the lockdown measurements.

You're assuming there is still a lot of people infected out there. If it isn't so present in the general population though, reopening makes sense.
As it stands, seems like the virus is mostly in health centers. So, that can be contained where everyone that's connected directly or indirectly need take further precautions.

Reopening doesn't mean foregoing all measures. If you're worried, wear mask, don't touch your face, and keep washing your hands often.