OT: Coronavirus XVII: Second Wave? More Like a Tsunami

[Cloned]

Cases in Edmonton seem to have slightly stabilized since more than doubling in June, and the outbreak at Mis has and will be costly, but Alberta as a whole (in particular Calgary) is clearly as bad as it's been in over two months. The last three days have been the worst since May 9th and it's trending up.

So we certainly know what age demographic is absolutely failing Covid-19 right now, not that its any surprise at all.

Over the past two weeks, 780 new cases have been identified in Alberta, with 57 per cent of those being under the age of 40

Fairly startling as younger people are generally not hit as hard with the Virus and one would expect younger people to fight it off. Yet these are confirmed tests and with the infallible making up the overwhelming bulk of the current caseload in Alberta. You know, all those people seen out there recreating like its normal times.

Those numbers are going to do nothing but increase.

Calgary and Edmonton party districts are swinging. Whyte Ave for weeks has been like no pandemic is even happening. Complete clusterf*** non awareness. People more concerned what their appies and drinks are tasting like in all the restos and patios than any pandemic.

Behaviorally its a freefall.

Calgary AND Banff are strongly considering making masks mandatory. Edmonton nowhere near making that call. But as 100 new cases a day pile up and this setting up some further exponential increase we could be going back into lockdowns.

The basic problem is that when you ease restrictions you see the 'just don't give a f***'' behaviors ratchet up.

its going to be a gongshow here when the playoffs start. Absolute gongshow.

Alberta is currently the worst per capita province in Canada for new cases. We've dropped the ball. Worse, these are not isolated, in old age homes, in meat packing plants. These are largely community exposure cases and probably a lot of these dolts still out walking the streets because that's how they caught it and don't care.

So many of the new cases are simply untracked. No idea where they are coming from. Could be your favorite mall, resto, gym, etc. They don't even know.

Alberta now running at 240 trackers instead of 400 and they are having trouble keeping up.

Yeah, if things keep trending this way another lockdown is coming.

 

[doulos]

I've been saying for a while that as young people feel like their future is ignored when it comes to climate change, that they are going to stop caring about those who are older then them in response. These types of responses to covid19 feel like a bit of that. Maybe I am reading into it, but I've always felt that you can't keep telling entire generations that their futures don't matter and then expect them not to live that way.

 

[joestevens29]

So people are complaining where masks are being given out now?

My god, some of you will complain about anything.

They are at those places because they are the more popular drive thrus in Edmonton. Drive thrus have less physical contact. And no you don't have to buy something to get them.

 

[joestevens29]

Police notified of 21,422 cases where travellers to Canada may have broken quarantine rules

In addition to these latest figures, Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) confirmed to CTVNews.ca that some travellers indicated a desire not to comply with Canada’s rules as early as the moment they travelled across the border.

So much wrong with this article, but if the quoted is the truth then why the hell are we letting them into the country?

Keys from article;

21k cases referred to the RCMP
1500 are deemed priority cases for physical checks.
9 Tickets issued
0 arrests

And people were worried about a 1000 people coming into a bubble to play hockey. Seems like there are far larger issues out there.

 

[doulos]

21k for the whole border. 1k for just Edmonton. They can both be a concern.

White House now ordering hospitals to bypass the CDC with their numbers. I am sure those numbers wont be manipulated at all right? Wasnt there some other country accused of manipulating covid numbers? Looking awfully similar....

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Cases in Edmonton seem to have slightly stabilized since more than doubling in June, and the outbreak at Mis has and will be costly, but Alberta as a whole (in particular Calgary) is clearly as bad as it's been in over two months. The last three days have been the worst since May 9th and it's trending up.

a little misleading due to much more testing in Edmonton
In Edmonton on June 1st, the 7-day avg. positivity rate was 0.97%
as of July 10th, the 7-day avg. is 0.74%

Calgary on June 1st was 1.47%
as of July 10th its 1.41%

COVID-19 Alberta statistics (click on lab testing)

time will tell if this "spike" continues with the more testing they are doing in Edmonton

 

[Drivesaitl]

Police notified of 21,422 cases where travellers to Canada may have broken quarantine rules

In addition to these latest figures, Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) confirmed to CTVNews.ca that some travellers indicated a desire not to comply with Canada’s rules as early as the moment they travelled across the border.

So much wrong with this article, but if the quoted is the truth then why the hell are we letting them into the country?

Keys from article;

21k cases referred to the RCMP
1500 are deemed priority cases for physical checks.
9 Tickets issued
0 arrests

And people were worried about a 1000 people coming into a bubble to play hockey. Seems like there are far larger issues out there.

I'm confused by this part too;


"As of July 3, 2020, the CBSA has referred information to both PHAC and the RCMP on 237 travellers who the CBSA believes may not have respected the requirement to quarantine or isolate and/or those who have signalled an unwillingness to comply," said CBSA spokesperson Rebecca Purdy in another emailed statement on Tuesday.

So why is the CBSA letting in hundreds of obviously non compliant through the border, during a pandemic, instead of simply not granting them access, and turning them back, or even detaining them until police arrive? I mean WTF, let hundreds through and THEN call police. These were cases that were obviously such a concern that police were contacted. Why is the CBSA not exercising their own authority instead of just letting them in.

Doesn't the problem start at the border where agents are so often duped on the "going to Alaska" gimmick.

Time to start hiring some complete jerks at the border like the US always have in full stock and actually making it a border complete with adhering to rules, expectations and tightening things up.

My take is theres been internal document directives, probably all the way from Ottawa to be engaged in some very loose application of stated rules. To the public its stated that we keep extending the US border restrictions during a pandemic. But to the actual border I wonder how much its communicated to just let a lot of people in. Something really strange going on.

 

[joestevens29]

21k for the whole border. 1k for just Edmonton. They can both be a concern.

White House now ordering hospitals to bypass the CDC with their numbers. I am sure those numbers wont be manipulated at all right? Wasnt there some other country accused of manipulating covid numbers? Looking awfully similar....

I mean we are also allowing what 20,000 trucks into Canada daily. Really don't see how 1k with all the testing they are doing is going to be that big of a concern

 

[joestevens29]

I'm confused by this part too;


"As of July 3, 2020, the CBSA has referred information to both PHAC and the RCMP on 237 travellers who the CBSA believes may not have respected the requirement to quarantine or isolate and/or those who have signalled an unwillingness to comply," said CBSA spokesperson Rebecca Purdy in another emailed statement on Tuesday.

So why is the CBSA letting in hundreds of obviously non compliant through the border, during a pandemic, instead of simply not granting them access, and turning them back, or even detaining them until police arrive? I mean WTF, let hundreds through and THEN call police. These were cases that were obviously such a concern that police were contacted. Why is the CBSA not exercising their own authority instead of just letting them in.

Doesn't the problem start at the border where agents are so often duped on the "going to Alaska" gimmick.

Time to start hiring some complete jerks at the border like the US always have in full stock and actually making it a border complete with adhering to rules, expectations and tightening things up.

My take is theres been internal document directives, probably all the way from Ottawa to be engaged in some very loose application of stated rules. To the public its stated that we keep extending the US border restrictions during a pandemic. But to the actual border I wonder how much its communicated to just let a lot of people in. Something really strange going on.

Personally I don't think anyone should be able to go to Alaska unless they are going through BC. From there you have 48 hours to get to Alaska and should have to have some sort of tracking device that proves you made it there.

The rest is just baffling. These border people can be dicks when things are going well in the world, so why can't they be dicks now?

 

[Drivesaitl]

a little misleading due to much more testing in Edmonton
In Edmonton on June 1st, the 7-day avg. positivity rate was 0.97%
as of July 10th, the 7-day avg. is 0.74%

Calgary on June 1st was 1.47%
as of July 10th its 1.41%

COVID-19 Alberta statistics (click on lab testing)

time will tell if this "spike" continues with the more testing they are doing in Edmonton

The 1% isn't all that reassuring because more and more people with no symptoms are being asked to show up and be tested. With the province even stating it wants as many people as possible to come for tests now for no other reason than establishing a statistical framework of how much infection is in general pop.

If it is hanging at 1% that's enough for it to continue to spread. Its actually alarming its this high in general pop, here, in July. What this is approximating probably is close to 1% of people that are asymptomatic having this and walking around in the community. A much worse problem then we had at any point prior here when the virus was pretty much isolated to known breakouts and with known traces.

Now its just out there, and a lot of it. 1% of general pop infected is a lot of people out there, probably infected, and getting covid, still.

You can't look at the numbers and change in percentage in time without reflecting that different populations now are getting tested vs June 1st. ANYBODY can get tested now and is encouraged to do so. So that these are worse numbers given that context. These are not now primarily ill populations getting tested.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

The 1% isn't all that reassuring because more and more people with no symptoms are being asked to show up and be tested. With the province even stating it wants as many people as possible to come for tests now for no other reason than establishing a statistical framework of how much infection is in general pop.

If it is hanging at 1% that's enough for it to continue to spread. Its actually alarming its this high in general pop, here, in July. What this is approximating probably is close to 1% of people that are asymptomatic having this and walking around in the community. A much worse problem then we had at any point prior here when the virus was pretty much isolated to known breakouts and with known traces.

Now its just out there, and a lot of it. 1% of general pop infected is a lot of people out there, probably infected, and getting covid, still.

You can't look at the numbers and change in percentage in time without reflecting that different populations now are getting tested vs June 1st. ANYBODY can get tested now and is encouraged to do so. So that these are worse numbers given that context. These are not now primarily ill populations getting tested.

yes but how many are asymptomatic? how many just went for a test cause they felt like it only to find out they were positive?
those numbers in March and April are much worse if they'd have tested the general population and not just the ones with symptoms

 

[doulos]

I mean we are also allowing what 20,000 trucks into Canada daily. Really don't see how 1k with all the testing they are doing is going to be that big of a concern

We'll see how it goes. 1000 people doesn't seem like a big deal until something happens.

 

[Drivesaitl]

yes but how many are asymptomatic? how many just went for a test cause they felt like it only to find out they were positive?
those numbers in March and April are much worse if they'd have tested the general population and not just the ones with symptoms

Not following you. The percentage of infected would likely be lower in March April if they had just been testing general pop, and not those that are sick in hospitals, care homes, meat packing plants.

Now we're testing general pop. % of infected always goes down as testing increasingly approximates general pop.

All I'm saying is 1% general pop infected is a huge concern. the amount of infected here is probably higher than anytime. Certainly the amount of infected in the community, with unknown traces, is higher than its ever been.

 

[shoop]

You can't look at the numbers and change in percentage in time without reflecting that different populations now are getting tested vs June 1st. ANYBODY can get tested now and is encouraged to do so. So that these are worse numbers given that context. These are not now primarily ill populations getting tested.

The population getting tested will unquestionably change the numbers.

If people aren't symptomatic, arein't in an at-risk group and don't think they have been exposed is there still value in them going to get tested?

 

[joestevens29]

We'll see how it goes. 1000 people doesn't seem like a big deal until something happens.

We are probably getting a heck of a lot more than that coming into the Mountains and other various sites in this province. A thousand people is literally nothing

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Not following you. The percentage of infected would likely be lower in March April if they had just been testing general pop, and not those that are sick in hospitals, care homes, meat packing plants.

Now we're testing general pop. % of infected always goes down as testing increasingly approximates general pop.

All I'm saying is 1% general pop infected is a huge concern. the amount of infected here is probably higher than anytime. Certainly the amount of infected in the community, with unknown traces, is higher than its ever been.

I'm saying had they tested people with severe symptoms AND the general population, the percentage is likely higher because the positive tests would show both symptomatic and asymptomatic people
not hard to figure out lol

 

[doulos]

We are probably getting a heck of a lot more than that coming into the Mountains and other various sites in this province. A thousand people is literally nothing

But people are concerned about those other situations as well. I'm not sure why it has to be an either or.

 

[joestevens29]

But people are concerned about those other situations as well. I'm not sure why it has to be an either or.

The NHL bubble is so tight. If people are afraid of that bubble being the issue then I can't believe they can live their everyday lives with all the other things that could potentially go wrong.

 

[doulos]

The NHL bubble is so tight. If people are afraid of that bubble being the issue then I can't believe they can live their everyday lives with all the other things that could potentially go wrong.

I guess we certainly disagree on the potential for what could go wrong.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I'm saying had they tested people with severe symptoms AND the general population, the percentage is likely higher because the positive tests would show both symptomatic and asymptomatic people
not hard to figure out lol

Huh? What you're stating makes no sense. Anytime you include ample testing of general pop the % of infected goes down, just as it did here.

I didn't have coffee yet this morn. maybe I'm completely misunderstanding you.

Theres plenty of reason for concern right now with the Alberta numbers which are presently running worst in country.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Huh? What you're stating makes no sense. Anytime you include ample testing of general pop the % of infected goes down, just as it did here.

I didn't have coffee yet this morn. maybe I'm completely misunderstanding you.

it makes perfect sense....the "test positivity" hasn't increased despite more testing
meaning they aren't finding extra cases even though they're testing more

plenty of reason for concern right now with the Alberta numbers which are presently running worst in country.

a lot of that has to do with having tested the most per capita in the country

more tests= more positive cases

 

[Drivesaitl]

it makes perfect sense....the "test positivity" hasn't increased despite more testing
meaning they aren't finding extra cases even though they're testing more


a lot of that has to do with having tested the most per capita in the country

more tests= more positive cases

All along I was talking only about percentages. you were conflating case numbers into that, for some reason, when the discussion we were having was about percentage of infected. No wonder I was confused with what you were replying with.

At no point was I talking about case numbers.

I'll state it again. 1% confirmed positive tests out of primarily general pop tested (with mostly no symptoms) is still high. Still huge reason for concern.

Basically you walk into a mall and the probability is people in there are infected. That's what the current community numbers essentially mean.

Covid-19 infections are more in the community than they have ever been.

 

[MaxR11]

Its a colossally stupid idea. Colossally stupid people will show up and crowd the places. Add Alcohol which is the perfect drug to inhibit precaution, safety, common-sense, and its a recipe for disaster.

"No more than 6 at a table, we can still serve 300 inside" omfg That's MKT version of distancing. An establishment that already had a considerable outbreak. What a joke.

lets try to fathom the irony of all this. For several months people couldn't have funerals for loved ones, couldn't visit dying loved ones, couldn't get married, couldn't have graduations, anything.

But now people will be able to crowd bars because "yay playoffs" even though active cases and daily cases are as high as ever.

Totally agree. It's a bit shocking Hinshaw isn't doing something to curb this. Especially since, during yesterday's media avail, she said her and the province are very concerned about the rise in numbers recently and concerned people are starting to become to lax and drowning out the message or getting tired of the message about social distancing, washing hands, masks etc.

I cannot see how this will not lead to a significant jump in cases. Thousands of people hooting, hollering, chanting for hours in dozens of bars across town, not wearing masks. And you know there will be enough less than intelligent folks out here that will partake and fill all those bars up.

It's a bit of a slap in the face of those who have died and for all of us still trying to do our best to stop the spread and avoid infection.

Ya, they highly discourage choirs and singing in churches yet allow a few hundred fanatic possibly drunk fans chant and cheer, likely high fiving each other (between different groups) in places likely more cramped than your local church. And to boot people will be shoveling food (some finger foods) and drinks into their mouths through their time there.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

All along I was talking only about percentages. you were conflating case numbers into that, for some reason, when the discussion we were having was about percentage of infected. No wonder I was confused with what you were replying with.

At no point was I talking about case numbers.

I'll state it again. 1% confirmed positive tests out of primarily general pop tested (with mostly no symptoms) is still high. Still huge reason for concern.

Basically you walk into a mall and the probability is people in there are infected. That's what the current community numbers essentially mean.

Covid-19 infections are more in the community than they have ever been.

ok but it's not getting worse yet is my point

if that 1% turned to 2% or 3% or 5% with still high testing numbers, I'd be concerned

 

[Drivesaitl]

ok but it's not getting worse yet is my point

if that 1% turned to 2% or 3% or 5% with still high testing numbers, I'd be concerned

Strange barometer of concern. 3% rate of genpop infection would be shutter your doors and windows like its NY.

4% would be weld them shut like Wuhan.

5% of general pop being infected would be an enormous issue that overwhelm all our capacity to deal with this pandemic.

Really just hitting 2% positives out of general pop would overwhelm our health care resources here.