OT: Coronavirus XVII: Second Wave? More Like a Tsunami

[Bryanbryoil]

The last thread went off the rails and OT. Lets try and keep this one on topic.

Click to read more...

 

[CycloneSweep]

The last thread went off the rails and OT. Lets try and keep this one on topic.

My bad .....

 

[McDrai]

It is kind of interesting how the media always mentions cases instead of deaths. If your testing goes up, your cases will also go up so a "2nd wave" could be created by simply increasing testing

 

[CycloneSweep]

It is kind of interesting how the media always mentions cases instead of deaths. If your testing goes up, your cases will also go up so a "2nd wave" could be created by simply increasing testing

They also look at percentage of tests that are positive. If you open up testing and the percentage of tests being positive stays the same or goes up that's bad.

If you do more tests but the positive test rate goes down, that's a good sign.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

The thread title mentions a second wave. This is not a second wave. This is the first wave not being managed well in the USA and continuing on. The second wave isn't supposed to hit the rest of the world till the fall.

 

[McDrai]

They also look at percentage of tests that are positive. If you open up testing and the percentage of tests being positive stays the same or goes up that's bad.

If you do more tests but the positive test rate goes down, that's a good sign.

It would be nice if there was a database where we could look at positive test rate. That would be a nice indicator instead of just going by new cases

 

[Senor Catface]

It is kind of interesting how the media always mentions cases instead of deaths. If your testing goes up, your cases will also go up so a "2nd wave" could be created by simply increasing testing

I can never get over that gif in your signature. The arm/hand look so awkward it looks CGI'ed or green screened in.

 

[AM]

The thread title mentions a second wave. This is not a second wave. This is the first wave not being managed well in the USA and continuing on. The second wave isn't supposed to hit the rest of the world till the fall.

You tell that second wave to stay in it’s place! No jumping the line in Canada.

 

[bellagiobob]

A thread by Dr. Deena Hinshaw

Here is a summary thread of today’s #COVID19AB update.

7,407 Albertans have now recovered. 41 people are hospitalized with 9 in ICUs. There are 41 new cases out of about 7,200 new tests. We currently have 547 active cases in Alberta, with 246 of them in the Edmonton zone. There have been no new deaths. (1/14)

We know that this virus can spread easily from one to many. One area in Calgary and one in Edmonton are on the watch list, with more than 50 active cases per 100,000. No additional measure are needed in either area at this time, but we are watching closely. (2/14)

We are listing a new outbreaks linked to four restaurants in Edmonton: the Greta Bar, Earls Tin Palace, the Pint and Local on Jasper Ave. We are encouraging anyone who attended any of those four locations to get tested. (3/14)

These restaurants and those who have been tested are doing the right thing by taking steps to contain the outbreak. (4/14)

Tomorrow is Canada Day and many Albertans will celebrate. Effective today, outdoor audience-type gatherings of up to 200 people are allowed for events like watching fireworks, festivals, rodeos and sporting events, and outdoor performances. (5/14)

This shift is based on several factors, including analysis of how the virus is spreading in Alberta and the reduced risk of gatherings held outdoors. We believe with appropriate health measures like 2m distancing it’s possible to conduct these events safely. (6/14)

However, more people does not mean less care. Participants still have to stay 2m apart. I urge all Albertans to wear a mask, wash or sanitize hands frequently, and stay home if sick. (7/14)

Indoor social gatherings are still limited to 50 people. Indoor seated events and outdoor events like weddings, family reunions and funerals remain limited to 100 people. (8/14)

If you are planning a private gathering in your backyard or your home, keep it within your cohort or stay outdoors and keep 2m distance between households. Avoid sharing food and drinks. COVID-19 will not take a break because it is a holiday. (9/14)

For those getting away to a summer cottage or a campground, please respect the health and safety of communities along the way by planning your trip without stops for gas or food where possible. (10/14)

Holidays can be a difficult time for some, even when we’re not in the midst of a pandemic. I encourage Albertans to continue to reach out to friends & neighbours who may be in this position. You can inspire others by sharing your stories with #AlbertaCares. (11/14)

I wish all Albertans a safe and happy Canada Day. This includes officials who work so hard to update the daily COVID numbers. They also get a well-deserved day off, so the next update will be on Thursday, July 2. (12/14)

Our specialized teams have been working seven days a week for many months now. We must all adjust to our new normal, and so daily updates will shift to Monday - Friday. We will continue to provide daily breakdowns. If urgent news breaks on a weekend, we will alert you. (13)

Please enjoy your Canada Day and stay as safe as possible. We continue to be all in this together. (14/14)

 

[harpoon]

Public immunity to COVID-19 is probably higher than shown by antibody tests

[URL]https://www.google.ca/amp/s/medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-immunity-covid-higher-shown.amp[/URL]

"Advanced analyses have now enabled us to map in detail the T-cell response during and after a COVID-19 infection. Our results indicate that roughly twice as many people have developed T-cell immunity compared with those who we can detect antibodies in."

"Moreover, roughly 30 per cent of the blood donors who'd given blood in May 2020 had COVID-19-specific T cells, a figure that's much higher than previous antibody tests have shown."

 

[doulos]

Strange results but interesting. Looking forward to the research being peer reviewed.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I can never get over that gif in your signature. The arm/hand look so awkward it looks CGI'ed or green screened in.

its kind of mesmerizing that way. I find myself staring at it. "You're getting sleepy, your name is Connor McDavid, you can score goals"

I've never succumbed to hypnotism but that gif does something.

 

[Mr Positive]

It is kind of interesting how the media always mentions cases instead of deaths. If your testing goes up, your cases will also go up so a "2nd wave" could be created by simply increasing testing

I'd be interested in what our "total death rate" is. I mean not just COVID, but all deaths of any type. What has this year been like compared to previous years? That would cut through a lot of the questions around how they calculate things.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Public immunity to COVID-19 is probably higher than shown by antibody tests

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-immunity-covid-higher-shown.amp

"Advanced analyses have now enabled us to map in detail the T-cell response during and after a COVID-19 infection. Our results indicate that roughly twice as many people have developed T-cell immunity compared with those who we can detect antibodies in."

"Moreover, roughly 30 per cent of the blood donors who'd given blood in May 2020 had COVID-19-specific T cells, a figure that's much higher than previous antibody tests have shown."

Had an interesting convo with somebody on the board that works in the field. Forget his username. I had surmised that populations after several months of exposure could have developed some level of resistance due to exposure to lesser load infection or deactivated virus particles. Which happens naturally through breathing air, touching, etc. So a person may not have even had to have had a run in with Covid-19 full blown infection to have some body immunity response, and thus possibly the T-cells. I was just speaking theoretically as that is what vaccine often is, a series of strands of deactivated or less lethal viral particles. But we naturally get exposed to it as well. I remembered that in addition to some level of herd immunity this is possibly what had eventually stopped the Spanish Flu as well. Just less people to infect that did not have the resistance.

On the other hand anybody that has had a cold over the last 7-8mths could have had their run with Covid-19. Even in Edmonton area massive amounts of people getting sick right before Xmas. Some report that it was very bad and I caught the same cold at work and only got hit normally. It was very contagious. Most people at work had it at one point. Lots of phlegm production, but no secondary infection. Lasted just over a week. Some mild grade fever (little) and the slightest bit of dizziness. What freaked me out then was hearing about the outbreak in early reports around Xmas-NYE. A lot of video, posts were circulating on different sites even before NYE.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Another comment on the resto bar industry and in relation to infection, and it now commonly thought that degree of infection might be related to degree of dosage of what one was originally exposed to. Thus if one has passing contact with the virus, they may not get a strong dose. But if somebody is exposed longer term to an infected individual they could get worse case of Covid-19. Its theorized that initial dose could predicate the bodies ability to fight off or contain the initial infection. Wouldn't be the only dose related pandemic known.

The implications of this, if true, continue to have ramifications. Generally speaking sanitation standards and practice in the Resto/bar industry are poor. So much so that I don't want to take the risk. But it likely depends what the exposure was. Did somebody sneeze or cough right at the table you are sitting at, or was it washed down, and the chairs, properly? Did somebody sneeze on hand while preparing, serving food. I mean it doesn't matter if you wear gloves if that's the surface you choose to use to wipe nose and then handle food. I'd go as far to suspect anything. Coffee pot, ice machine, soda dispenser, any commonly touched surface could be a point of contagion. Just so many.

I know that extensive training is going on in different industries but people are so known to just shortcut, stop taking safeguards etc. Virtually half the time we've been out for groceries the cashier has wiped her runny nose on her arm or top of glove and then immediately contine to check out the groceries. Only one time did a staff deglove and sanitize. Through this whole pandemic I have only seen a proper procedure by a cashier that had wiped nose executed once. For sure that employee is not supposed to sneeze or wipe, and just keep going on as if nothing happened. I even give a WTF look when this occurs. yeah, don't go to work during a pandemic if you're sick, thanks..

All the resto results we heard more about today are strong indication we are never really out of the woods with this, even in summertime. Everybody can have different views on this, but I'm not trusting what goes on in the establishments and I don't have a lot of confidence that longterm the industry will monitor and follow through very well.

Last point is that how do resto/bar staff self monitor when to come in, when to phone in sick, when this is an industry notorious for hangovers and binge drinking/drug use. If you're 20/30 something and indulging a lot half the time you come into work you start your shift feeling like crap. I worked a bit in the industry while very young. First hour you were wondering if some staff were always going to upchuck on their shift. Same people would be out till 2am getting loaded again that night. Its just an industry that is contra prepared to deal effectively with a pandemic, even as they want to. A bunch of staff burning both ends, partying hard, and running their bodies down and being susceptible. Add all the secondary infections or herpes or mono, STDs. A lot of pandemic burn possible in that population of staff.

 

[BlueCheeseWithWings]

^ the industry is definitely not like that anymore re: rock & roll lifestyle.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

The thread title mentions a second wave. This is not a second wave. This is the first wave not being managed well in the USA and continuing on. The second wave isn't supposed to hit the rest of the world till the fall.

Would you consider it a 2nd wave elsewhere? Iran for instance? The US isnt the only place getting hit hard and I didnt mean the US specifically for the thread title. What would you consider the criteria for the end of the 1st wave?

 

[doulos]

I'd be interested in what our "total death rate" is. I mean not just COVID, but all deaths of any type. What has this year been like compared to previous years? That would cut through a lot of the questions around how they calculate things.

The number crunching on data like this is going to be really interesting to see but unfortunately will be politicized like everything else.

 

[BlueCheeseWithWings]

The only thing us pawns can be certain about re: this virus, is rich people are becoming more wealthy. They are very lucky to have their hands in every pot associated with the "new normal."

 

[BlueCheeseWithWings]

Black Lives Matter protests may have slowed overall spread of coronavirus in Denver and other cities, new study finds

At this point, maybe we do need a solar flare/asteroid to reset everything. Everything is f***ed.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Black Lives Matter protests may have slowed overall spread of coronavirus in Denver and other cities, new study finds

At this point, maybe we do need a solar flare/asteroid to reset everything. Everything is f***ed.

This is almost approaching justification of the purge in getting people to stay locked in their homes. Riots are out there.

I mean if one believes this study for even a moment.

I'm jk with the first statement btw

 

[Drivesaitl]

Would you consider it a 2nd wave elsewhere? Iran for instance? The US isnt the only place getting hit hard and I didnt mean the US specifically for the thread title. What would you consider the criteria for the end of the 1st wave?

Even a slow down of global rates of infection at any point.

Its Nation or region centric to even think that the first wave has passed. Its still going like a storm. Daily infections have never slowed. Just finding new countries and continents to burn through like a global wildfire leaving everything scorched.

That said typically 2nd wave is stated when the second flu season of a pandemic is yielding huge numbers. This is still first wave, making its entry, still, first time, into places. Outside the US the blaze is in newer hard hit countries. Most others have extinguished the first wave pretty well. Iran is an outlier because who can believe anything coming out of there.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Would you consider it a 2nd wave elsewhere? Iran for instance? The US isnt the only place getting hit hard and I didnt mean the US specifically for the thread title. What would you consider the criteria for the end of the 1st wave?

Iran also didn’t close their first wave off. It slowed then blew up on them as well and seems to be running wild as in the US. I’m no epidemiologist, just going by what they are saying and that is a strong second wave is expected in the fall.

I think going by the graphs and data it’s pretty clear the US (and Iran) never got a proper handle on the first wave. They slowed it but did not flatten it like in Europe, Canada and most if not all of Asia.

 

[doulos]

Black Lives Matter protests may have slowed overall spread of coronavirus in Denver and other cities, new study finds

At this point, maybe we do need a solar flare/asteroid to reset everything. Everything is f***ed.

This was already suggested as a possibility so its not that surprising to see some more evidence of it.

 

[ThePhoenixx]

'There is no profit': Edmonton's hospitality, tourism sector know it's all about survival | Edmonton Journal

"Co-owner Shelley Klein has managed the hotel’s day-to-day operations for the past 20 years and has helped guide the hotel, nestled in the heart of downtown Edmonton, through a number of global events, including the 2002-04 SARS pandemic and the 2009-10 H1N1 pandemic....At one point, construction along Jasper Avenue left a giant hole in front of the 40-room hotel for two years. They managed to survive. But none of those things affected business they way COVID-19 has."

I'd say Social media and other factors changed the approach to this virus and made it worse for businesses than all the other global/regional tragedies.