OT: Coronavirus XVII: Second Wave? More Like a Tsunami

[Senor Catface]

 

[Todd Parchment]

I hope you’re all staying safe I don’t want to lose any of you old chaps I tangle with during hockey season.

 

[Frank the Tank]

First COVID-19 vaccine tested in US poised for final testing

 

[Stoneman89]

First COVID-19 vaccine tested in US poised for final testing

And now for the hardest part and the point where most of new experimental drugs etc fall apart. As in, when they’re tested on actual humans and not little lab animals. And the time of testing will take a while before it can be confirmed some type of success.

 

[Frank the Tank]

And now for the hardest part and the point where most of new experimental drugs etc fall apart. As in, when they’re tested on actual humans and not little lab animals. And the time of testing will take a while before it can be confirmed some type of success.

Read the article. They're entering phase 3 testing (large cohorts with diverse populations), not transitioning from preclinical animal studies to phase 1 clinical (start of human clinical trials). They've even refined their dosing protocol, which occurs in early clinical human trials, and demonstrated early human efficacy with key biomarkers.

 

[Senor Catface]

Read the article. They're entering phase 3 testing (large cohorts with diverse populations), not transitioning from preclinical animal studies to phase 1 clinical (start of human clinical trials). They've even refined their dosing protocol, which occurs in early clinical human trials, and demonstrated early human efficacy with key biomarkers.

Have you seen this site before?

COVID-19 vaccine tracker

 

[Frank the Tank]

Have you seen this site before?

COVID-19 vaccine tracker

Yeah, I follow this website and have a subscription to GlobalData Healthcare email updates through work.

 

[Stoneman89]

Read the article. They're entering phase 3 testing (large cohorts with diverse populations), not transitioning from preclinical animal studies to phase 1 clinical (start of human clinical trials). They've even refined their dosing protocol, which occurs in early clinical human trials, and demonstrated early human efficacy with key biomarkers.

Not trying to be a Negative Nell, but how long do you think is a sufficient amount of time for a vaccine to be declared an absolute success?

 

[Frank the Tank]

Not trying to be a Negative Nell, but how long do you think is a sufficient amount of time for a vaccine to be declared an absolute success?

We'll know the answer to that question when the phase 3 results are unblinded for this and other vaccine candidates. One should also follow the literature on the impact of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (and other factors) on preventing reinfection.

 

[Stoneman89]

We'll know the answer to that question when the phase 3 results are unblinded for this an other vaccine candidates. One should also follow the literature on the impact of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (and other factors) on preventing reinfection.

I guess I’m looking for is your opinion on what time frame you would feel comfortable with?

 

[Frank the Tank]

I guess I’m looking for is your opinion on what time frame you would feel comfortable with?

It remains complex set of variable to weigh at this point and it's why I hesitate to answer until I can review the data (and more importantly have independent experts at the FDA do the same). One has to look at what biomarkers they target (e.g., antibodies) and the statistics of how they induce them across the different cohorts through the dosing protocol they choose. Incidence rate and severity of side effects must also be quantified.

At the same time, we'll have a better idea by 2021 about the protection illness induced antibodies (and other factors) provide against reinfection. If the data from both data sets comes back looking good (as determined by numerous biometricians), I'll line up for a vaccine.

 

[Markham30]

Were they social distancing? I mean, was there enough room to avoid people and keep some distance?

As much as someone can. But when the isle isn’t 6 feet wide more like 4 feet and people are passing eachother, or when people stop in the middle of the isle to talk and ask questions about a product. It can be hard to socially distance properly.

The worst is when you’re in the grocery store and can clearly see the arrows pointing in one direction and people blatantly refuse to follow them, it can be a little frustrating. Especially when you have family members who are immunocompromised or have pre existing conditions. As I’m sure lots of members on here have.

 

[Cloned]

View attachment 353864

"I'm not worried, it's just like a mosquito bite"

 

[MaxR11]

I don't know... this seems like a bad bad idea.... 300 people in MKT, cheering and whooping it up, creating aerosols in an enclosed restaurant for several hours? Prepare for an even bigger bump in numbers I guess. At this point i'm almost preparing for a re-shutdown (rec centers, rinks, some non-essential facilities etc) come fall/winter.

 

[Barrsy]

Man its nice to read this thread when the poster(s) posting actually have a clue and can speak on the subject with expertise/logic/intelligence and not dogma.

 

[GretzkytoKurri9917]

 

[SK13]

And now for the hardest part and the point where most of new experimental drugs etc fall apart. As in, when they’re tested on actual humans and not little lab animals. And the time of testing will take a while before it can be confirmed some type of success.

Phase 2 testing is human testing. This is moving to phase 3. It's already shown promising results in stimulating protective antibodies in humans. Phase 3 is about testing a crowd of people. They will give the vaccine to them and send them out for a couple months. If they come back with antibodies and low/no infection, it will be about monitoring side effects and testing for safety in Phase 4.

There's no guarantee it will be effective but it's nice that a second vaccine (the Oxford vaccine entered Phase 3 testing last month) is showing some promise.

I have very little doubt that whenever we get to a vaccine, it will be the fastest we've ever done it. There has never been so many with so much investment racing towards a vaccine.

I don't know... this seems like a bad bad idea.... 300 people in MKT, cheering and whooping it up, creating aerosols in an enclosed restaurant for several hours? Prepare for an even bigger bump in numbers I guess. At this point i'm almost preparing for a re-shutdown (rec centers, rinks, some non-essential facilities etc) come fall/winter.

Alberta is already the worst province per capita for new infections so I don't doubt that this is in the cards for us.

 

[GretzkytoKurri9917]

He was supposed to be in prison less than a year. Instead, he died after catching the coronavirus.


84 prisoners in Texas have died from covid-19.

 

[Cloned]

Phase 2 testing is human testing. This is moving to phase 3. It's already shown promising results in stimulating protective antibodies in humans. Phase 3 is about testing a crowd of people. They will give the vaccine to them and send them out for a couple months. If they come back with antibodies and low/no infection, it will be about monitoring side effects and testing for safety in Phase 4.

There's no guarantee it will be effective but it's nice that a second vaccine (the Oxford vaccine entered Phase 3 testing last month) is showing some promise.

I have very little doubt that whenever we get to a vaccine, it will be the fastest we've ever done it. There has never been so many with so much investment racing towards a vaccine.



Alberta is already the worst province per capita for new infections so I don't doubt that this is in the cards for us.

A large number of those new cases are coming from Edmonton, which thankfully looks like it’s stabilized and trending down again over the last few days.

 

[SK13]

A large number of those new cases are coming from Edmonton, which thankfully looks like it’s stabilized and trending down again over the last few days.

Cases in Edmonton seem to have slightly stabilized since more than doubling in June, and the outbreak at Mis has and will be costly, but Alberta as a whole (in particular Calgary) is clearly as bad as it's been in over two months. The last three days have been the worst since May 9th and it's trending up.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Cases in Edmonton seem to have slightly stabilized since more than doubling in June, and the outbreak at Mis has and will be costly, but Alberta as a whole (in particular Calgary) is clearly as bad as it's been in over two months. The last three days have been the worst since May 9th and it's trending up.

It seems like the places that havent been hard hit get complacent and then get hit harder than they did initially. We are seeing the same thing in Oahu over here. Unless things change, this is a marathon and not a sprint (as depressing as that is).

 

[Bryanbryoil]

In terms of local news, the reopening of tourism has been pushed back to September 1st now. Also there has been an agreement reached between the teachers and the state that kids will have to be 6 feet/~2 meters apart and wear masks. The school that my kids go to have decided to split the classes up. Have some kids go to school on certain days, and the other group on others. Waiting to hear all of the specifics.

 

[Drivesaitl]

So we certainly know what age demographic is absolutely failing Covid-19 right now, not that its any surprise at all.

Over the past two weeks, 780 new cases have been identified in Alberta, with 57 per cent of those being under the age of 40

Fairly startling as younger people are generally not hit as hard with the Virus and one would expect younger people to fight it off. Yet these are confirmed tests and with the infallible making up the overwhelming bulk of the current caseload in Alberta. You know, all those people seen out there recreating like its normal times.

Those numbers are going to do nothing but increase.

Calgary and Edmonton party districts are swinging. Whyte Ave for weeks has been like no pandemic is even happening. Complete clusterf*** non awareness. People more concerned what their appies and drinks are tasting like in all the restos and patios than any pandemic.

Behaviorally its a freefall.

Calgary AND Banff are strongly considering making masks mandatory. Edmonton nowhere near making that call. But as 100 new cases a day pile up and this setting up some further exponential increase we could be going back into lockdowns.

The basic problem is that when you ease restrictions you see the 'just don't give a f***'' behaviors ratchet up.

its going to be a gongshow here when the playoffs start. Absolute gongshow.

Alberta is currently the worst per capita province in Canada for new cases. We've dropped the ball. Worse, these are not isolated, in old age homes, in meat packing plants. These are largely community exposure cases and probably a lot of these dolts still out walking the streets because that's how they caught it and don't care.

So many of the new cases are simply untracked. No idea where they are coming from. Could be your favorite mall, resto, gym, etc. They don't even know.

Alberta now running at 240 trackers instead of 400 and they are having trouble keeping up.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I don't know... this seems like a bad bad idea.... 300 people in MKT, cheering and whooping it up, creating aerosols in an enclosed restaurant for several hours? Prepare for an even bigger bump in numbers I guess. At this point i'm almost preparing for a re-shutdown (rec centers, rinks, some non-essential facilities etc) come fall/winter.

Its a colossally stupid idea. Colossally stupid people will show up and crowd the places. Add Alcohol which is the perfect drug to inhibit precaution, safety, common-sense, and its a recipe for disaster.

"No more than 6 at a table, we can still serve 300 inside" omfg That's MKT version of distancing. An establishment that already had a considerable outbreak. What a joke.

lets try to fathom the irony of all this. For several months people couldn't have funerals for loved ones, couldn't visit dying loved ones, couldn't get married, couldn't have graduations, anything.

But now people will be able to crowd bars because "yay playoffs" even though active cases and daily cases are as high as ever.

 

[McDNicks17]

We're moving to Phase 3 this Friday over here in my part of Ontario.

Basically everything is allowed to open back up. Gathering limits upped to 50 indoors and 100 outdoors.

It's been pretty nice living in the middle of nowhere in rural Ontario. The two counties under our health unit have only had 115 confirmed cases and it's been a week since we've had a confirmed case.