Speculation: Copp's future?

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

You have some sort of misunderstanding here, I'm trying to figure out precisely where the mistake is.

I'm certain I understand it fine, but figuring out our mutual disconnect may become a tiresome process for one or perhaps both of us.

I'm certain in the end we'd be in agreement. You've alway some across as knowledgable on this subject over the years. I'm just tired of the same conversation on repeat, not with you but in general.

People have been chatting about this for weeks/months, but the same posters keep making the same mistakes assuming "Little can't be placed on LTIR when the rosters are handed in", don't understand the benefits from placing Little on LTIR once the season begins & exactly how to achieve maximum cap relief, make the same mistakes when creating rosters forgetting that once Copp is signed, that a player will be demoted saving $725,000 or more, don't understand that successfully waiving Beaulieu comes with the small expense of a buried cap hit, don't understand the positives of keeping players making below league minimum on the roster as healthy scratches while giving our prospects top minutes in the AHL making them more NHL ready should injuries strike, insisted that Stanley was signing for $500,000 more than he did, that Pionk was signing for $1 million more than he did & insisting repeatedly that Copp wants out or can't at all be afforded.

We'll see soon how this all unfolds & it won't matter who was right or who was wrong. The Jets will sign Copp, our roster will be complete and the Jets will spend the year competing with Colorado as the top dog in the west.

 

[bennylundholm]

I'm betting we sign Copp to a one year 4 million.
Use his services on the 3rd line rather than trade at the deadline.
Go to the finals against TB.
Let him walk after that.

 

[mouser]

I'm certain I understand it fine, but figuring out our mutual disconnect may become a tiresome process for one or perhaps both of us.

I'm certain in the end we'd be in agreement. You've alway some across as knowledgable on this subject over the years. I'm just tired of the same conversation on repeat, not with you but in general.

People have been chatting about this for weeks/months, but the same posters keep making the same mistakes assuming "Little can't be placed on LTIR when the rosters are handed in", don't understand the benefits from placing Little on LTIR once the season begins & exactly how to achieve maximum cap relief, make the same mistakes when creating rosters forgetting that once Copp is signed, that a player will be demoted saving $725,000 or more, don't understand that successfully waiving Beaulieu comes with the small expense of a buried cap hit, don't understand the positives of keeping players making below league minimum on the roster as healthy scratches while giving our prospects top minutes in the AHL making them more NHL ready should injuries strike, insisted that Stanley was signing for $500,000 are than he did, that Pionk was signing for $1 million more than he did & insisting repeatedly that Copp wants out or can't at all be afforded.

We'll see soon how this all unfolds & it won't matter who was right or who was wrong. The Jets will sign Copp, our roster will be complete and the Jets will spend the year competing with Colorado as the top dog in the west.

No worries. My suggestion would be fill out your CF roster with the final 20-23 player lineup you want to go into the season with, including Copp at $3.9m, $4.5m and any other numbers you want to experiment with. Don't worry about any temporary roster shifts required for a Day 1 LTIR. You just want to make sure the 20-23 healthy active roster players come in under the $81.5m cap.

If they do come in under $81.5m. Then the next step is the cap gymnastics to activate LTIR when the team cap is either as close to $81.5m as possible. Or as close to $86,791,667 ($81.5m Cap + Little) as possible.

cheers

 

[surixon]

The agent works for Copp. Copp is a team player & is committed to winning in Winnipeg. No action he's made or words he has said suggest otherwise.

I however agree there's a 50/50 chance, only my two options are

1) 50% immediate signing at $3.9 million
2) 50 % signing once the season begins at $4.5 million

I don't for a second this goes to arbitration.

He can't walk away from the process. He is signed or traded by the end of the hearing.

He most certainly wants his money, yeah the agent works for him but he hired one of the biggest hard ass agents there is to grind every penny he can from the team.

He has already gone through the process and will no doubt do it again if he doesn't get what he wants.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Regardless of whether they LTIR Little on day 1 or the final day of training camp the healthy players on the roster can't exceed $81.5m. If your Training Camp option (1) only has $3.9m of room for Copp then Day 1 option (2) won't create more then $3.9m unless you have different final active rosters for each option.

No worries. My suggestion would be fill out your CF roster with the final 20-23 player lineup you want to go into the season with, including Copp at $3.9m, $4.5m and any other numbers you want to experiment with. Don't worry about any temporary roster shifts required for a Day 1 LTIR. You just want to make sure the 20-23 healthy active roster players come in under the $81.5m cap.

If they do come in under $81.5m. Then the next step is the cap gymnastics to activate LTIR when the team cap is either as close to $81.5m as possible. Or as close to $86,791,667 ($81.5m Cap + Little) as possible.

cheers

I do have final active roster projections. It just gets tedious to constantly be going back to capfriendly for screen shots of things I've previously posted.

If anything the situation has gotten even rosier than past my past posts have suggested. Stanley came $200,000 cheaper than I'd projected & Pionk came $125,000 under.

Some past projections were actually worried about $125,000 in buried hit for Beaulieu. Every little bit helps & both the Stanley & Pionk contracts are baby stepping Chevy towards his goal.

 

[BigZ65]

Seriously does anyone want Copp for $4+ M?
Stanley Cup contenders don't pay 3rd liners that kind of money ... they rent them at the TDL.

$4 million is the high end for me.

Doesn't make much sense that line driver and centerman Lowry ($3.25) would make a bunch less than Copp. Easier to replace Copp. Copp's value is enhanced by the Jets contending window, otherwise he'd probably be dealt 100%.

 

[BigZ65]

I do have final active roster projections. It just gets tedious to constantly be going back to capfriendly for screen shots of things I've previously posted.

If anything the situation has gotten even rosier than past my past posts have suggested. Stanley came $200,000 cheaper than I'd projected & Pionk came $125,000 under.

Some past projections were actually worried about $125,000 in buried hit for Beaulieu. Every little bit helps & both the Stanley & Pionk contracts are baby stepping Chevy towards his goal.

I'd hope we can dump Beaulieu on someone. Buffalo looks like they are going to have to take on money to make the floor. Beaulieu plus a 3rd for a Buffalo 5th or something like that?

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

He can't walk away from the process. He is signed or traded by the end of the hearing.

He most certainly wants his money, yeah the agent works for him but he hired one of the biggest hard ass agents there is to grind every penny he can from the team.

He has already gone through the process and will no doubt do it again if he doesn't get what he wants.

Are you certain? I have no issue ever being wrong, I'll even go back and marked false assertions I ever make with "edits" so that false information isn't being read by others.

If you are correct in this then the roster as it currently stands must place Little on LTIR at the time the rosters are handed in to make room for the Copp signing. Therefore all future roster projections begin by placing Little immediately on LTIR.

There's no way Chevy can be under the cap otherwise. Even the most cap conscious roster that Chevy could hand in would only leave $78,688 in cap space, WAY short of the $5,291,667 necessary.

**I'll note that Beaulieu has been placed on LTIR simply because I don't want to waste time creating a fake trade and also haven't waived him because $125,000 in buried salary would apply to the Jets total cap. Simply disregard him being there & assume he's been traded or has been waived & claimed by another team.**

 

[DRW204]

I'd hope we can dump Beaulieu on someone. Buffalo looks like they are going to have to take on money to make the floor. Beaulieu plus a 3rd for a Buffalo 5th or something like that?

Maurice vetos

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

I'd hope we can dump Beaulieu on someone. Buffalo looks like they are going to have to take on money to make the floor. Beaulieu plus a 3rd for a Buffalo 5th or something like that?

If Chevy can trade Beaulieu for any asset I'd be happy.

To be clear I'd like him to be on the team. He's very well suited to be our extra defensemen. Most fans major issue was pairing him up the roster, on his weak side & playing above his pay grade.

He's just an unaffordable luxury, with Heinola & Samberg as waivers exempt options the Jets can promote & demote at will.

 

[surixon]

Are you certain? I have no issue ever being wrong, I'll even go back and marked false assertions I ever make with "edits" so that false information isn't being read by others.

If you are correct in this then the roster as it currently stands must place Little on LTIR at the time the rosters are handed in. Therefore all future roster projections begin by placing Little immediately on LTIR.

There's no way Chevy can be under the cap otherwise. Even the most cap conscious roster that Chevy could hand in would only leave $78,688 in cap space, WAY short of the $5,291,667 necessary.

**I'll note that Beaulieu has been placed on LTIR simply because I don't want to waste time creating a fake trade and also haven't waived him because $125,000 in buried salary would apply to the Jets total cap. Simply disregard him being there & assume he's been traded or has been waived & claimed by another team.**
View attachment 460703

It doesn't specifically say but no player that I can recall has ever cancelled a hearing to sign later. I would imagine since he has filed he will have to see the process through if an agreement isn't reached prior to the hearing.

Also if you were in Copp's shoes why wouldn't you see it through if you can't reach an agreement. It gives you a one year deal and takes you right to UFA. If he was going to do the team a solid he would have either signed by now or not elected arbitration so that he could sign later so that we could make the cap work.

One of the big reasons I had a bunch of ELC's on my roster was to get the full amount of the LTIR cushion possible without risking loosing players off of waivers.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

It doesn't specifically say but no player that I can recall has ever cancelled a hearing to sign later. I would imagine since he has filed he will have to see the process through if an agreement isn't reached prior to the hearing.

One of the big reasons I had a bunch of ELC's on my roster was to get the full amount of the LTIR cushion possible without risking loosing players off of waivers.

Somewhere over the past week a number of posters said otherwise when I first brought up the theory of Copp walking away from arbitration, missing camp & then signing immediately after the rosters were handed in.

If the arbitration process must be followed thru, with the only exception being an early signing prior to a ruling, then there's no way Little's LTIR can be maximized by placing him on LTIR after the rosters are handed in. Chevy will be millions over the cap with both Little & Copp on the roster simultaneously, regardless of whatever opening day roster juggling one attempts.

 

[surixon]

Somewhere over the past week a number of posters said otherwise when I first brought up the theory of Copp walking away from arbitration, missing camp & then signing immediately after the rosters were handed in.

If the arbitration process must be followed thru, with the only exception being an early signing prior to a ruling, then there's no way Little's LTIR can be maximized by placing him on LTIR after the rosters are handed in. Chevy will be millions over the cap with both Little & Copp on the roster simultaneously, regardless of whatever opening day roster juggling one attempts.

It's why I expect him or Little's contract to be traded. LTIR isn't everything it's cracked up to be.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

It's why I expect him or Little's contract to be traded. LTIR isn't everything it's cracked up to be.

Oh I agree! The only major benefit that could ever be achieved is if Little suddenly returned for the playoffs.

Even then he hasn't played hockey since November 2019. Returning for the playoffs would have him 2 1/2 years since his last game & 34 years old. It's far cry from the league MVP Kucherov returning after 5 months away from the game.

With a perforated eardrum and unable to fly, Little's career is almost certainly over.

He's on the payroll for another 3 seasons (til the summer of 2024). The best thing for the Jets is to get his salary off the books for good.

It cost us Armia, a 4th & a 7th to get Montreal to take one year of Mason @ $4.1 million off our hands. I can't imagine what it will take for 3 seasons of Little at $5.3.

Don't say Copp!!!

 

[Romang67]

It's why I expect him or Little's contract to be traded. LTIR isn't everything it's cracked up to be.

Which, honestly, is a bit weird. Little is for all intents and purposes retired. He's not playing next season. I'm hoping that he'll be able to have a normal life after his hockey career. Obviously he's not about to retire and walk away from that kind of money, because normal people wouldn't.

So why does his contract still count toward the cap, but only up until the season starts? Why is the only reasonable course of action here for the Jets to dump that contract on some other team, just so we don't have to deal with the headache for exactly one day every year?

Them's the rules, but why? Surely they should be able to work something out for cases like this?

 

[Jetsfan79]

Wouldn't it be possible for the Jets to trade Beaulieu for a 750 k player at 50 percent retention? Would that be aloud? This way the savings increase to 875 k.

Example:

Jets trade Beaulieu and small sweetener (ex. Nathan Smith) to a team with cap space for a 750 k dman at 50 percent retained.

Out: Beaulieu's 1.25 million
In: 750 k player with retained salary: 375 k

Savings: 875k

Maybe Jets can do something similar with Niku? In this case trade for a player with similar salary but again with retention. Could be another 360 k or so Savings

 

[GaryPoppins]

interesting

 

[tbcwpg]

Wouldn't it be possible for the Jets to trade Beaulieu for a 750 k player at 50 percent retention? Would that be aloud? This way the savings increase to 875 k.

Example:

Jets trade Beaulieu and small sweetener (ex. Nathan Smith) to a team with cap space for a 750 k dman at 50 percent retained.

Out: Beaulieu's 1.25 million
In: 750 k player with retained salary: 375 k

Savings: 875k

Maybe Jets can do something similar with Niku? In this case trade for a player with similar salary but again with retention. Could be another 360 k or so Savings

Who would do take the 1.25 AND retain half just for Nathan Smith?

 

[WolfHouse]

interesting

Why wouldn’t he just list the numbers...

 

[Whileee]

interesting

I think a short deal for Copp seems increasingly likely (maybe 2 years). And I agree that they'll likely run a short roster, and maximize savings at home with the Moose in the same city.

 

[Jetsfan79]

Who would do take the 1.25 AND retain half just for Nathan Smith?

Well and Beaulieu too who is still a useful player. A net increase of 875k to a team with cap space doesn't seem like alot . Maybe I'm out to lunch lol

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Which, honestly, is a bit weird. Little is for all intents and purposes retired. He's not playing next season. I'm hoping that he'll be able to have a normal life after his hockey career. Obviously he's not about to retire and walk away from that kind of money, because normal people wouldn't.

So why does his contract still count toward the cap, but only up until the season starts? Why is the only reasonable course of action here for the Jets to dump that contract on some other team, just so we don't have to deal with the headache for exactly one day every year?

Them's the rules, but why? Surely they should be able to work something out for cases like this?

Teams would certainly exploit LTIR otherwise. For the most part I like the present system, but I do question why the league operates under different criteria during the season (LTIR) & the off season (10% over the cap). It really confuses things for the average fan, but more importantly causes financial chaos for teams whose only issue was an unfortunate accident.

Beyond that, like you said "why the headache for exactly one day every year"

There has to be a better way.

I don't follow cap issues in other leagues. Who does it better?

 

[Mathil8]

If Chevy can trade Beaulieu for any asset I'd be happy.

To be clear I'd like him to be on the team. He's very well suited to be our extra defensemen. Most fans major issue was pairing him up the roster, on his weak side & playing above his pay grade.

He's just an unaffordable luxury, with Heinola & Samberg as waivers exempt options the Jets can promote & demote at will.

I agree that Beaulieu is perfectly suited to be our extra defenseman and that he's an unaffordable luxury with his cap hit, with the added caveat that I also would consider trading Beaulieu a benefit in that it would prevent Maurice from having him as the first D-man for injury relief. My ideal scenario is having Niku or Nogier in the pressbox and having the vast majority of injury fill-in games going to Heinola/Samberg/Kovacevic. You just know that with Maurice, Beaulieu would be getting 90% of the injury relief games if he was our pressbox defenseman.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

I agree that Beaulieu is perfectly suited to be our extra defenseman and that he's an unaffordable luxury with his cap hit, with the added caveat that I also would consider trading Beaulieu a benefit in that it would prevent Maurice from having him as the first D-man for injury relief. My ideal scenario is having Niku or Nogier in the pressbox and having the vast majority of injury fill-in games going to Heinola/Samberg/Kovacevic. You just know that with Maurice, Beaulieu would be getting 90% of the injury relief games if he was our pressbox defenseman.

In almost perfect agreement. I'd like this 100 times over if it wasn't for the assumption Maurice is an idiot.

He's well aware the team cap management/optimal injury insurance situation involves using B grade talent (relatively speaking) as scratches while prospects play nightly making them better NHL'ers while developing on the Moose.

Traditionally Maurice plays his 4th line amongst the lowest minutes in the league & the players on that line are expected to penalty kill & throw their bodies in front of every puck possible. That's a $750,000 a year job on every NHL team.

Maurice is one of 31 other coaches in the NHL that don't ask their blue chip prospects to risk their careers blocking shots on the PK.

Rather they play top minutes on the Moose & then join the big club to play the same role.

Whose NHL career has Maurice derailed? Petan? Dano? Niku? Postma? Who should have been playing that 4th line role since Maurice arrived? Albert? Cormier? O'Dell? Klingberg? DeLeo, Kosmachuk? Lipon? Suess?

Thanks I'll take Slater, Thorburn, Stepniak, Halischuk, Matthias, Hendricks, Bourque, Shore, Shaw, Thompson, Lewis but most of all Perreault!

If I was to point out a player that deserved more opportunity it was Rosolovic. All the athletism in the world. If he could begin to think the game he'd be a perennial player of the week rather, than achieving that status once. Best comment was Torts being asked what he liked about Jack's game last year. "Nothing" was his response.

Keep in mind Roslo was the best example I could think of.

 

[surixon]

I think a short deal for Copp seems increasingly likely (maybe 2 years). And I agree that they'll likely run a short roster, and maximize savings at home with the Moose in the same city.

Yup that is the only way it would work for him here.