Speculation: Copp's future?

[Weezeric]

Unless Chevy has a pre-arranged deal with a team that's in the can, it makes more sense they would of traded Copp at the expansion/draft/FA period. With teams' rosters being more finalized by the day, it makes it harder and harder to do a trade. That's why I think its still 50/50 that we find a way to sign him.

I could see a scenario where Chevy puts a 3.85M 4 year deal on the table and says “You can sign this or we will have to trade you” and Copp signs.

 

[DRW204]

Copp is exactly the kind of player that should be traded at this point in his career and replaced internally with a cheaper option.

He's coming off a career year in points that he likely never reproduces. He's a quality 3rd liner but he sure as hell isn't worth more than 4M.

We have a bevy of young LW chomping at the bit for a chance in Vesa, Hark, Perfetti, Gus (three of which also play C) as well as vet Stats and Toninato to fill his spot.

He was a very good, serviceable player for us but his contract expectations have outgrown his value to this team.

Thank him for his service grab some picks and/or prospects and let another team take on a 5M cap hit for a 2/3 W/C.

this kind of reminds me of hyman, was a 5th rd pick and turned into a serviceable middle-6 player. contract got to high and TOR walked away. i like Copp, but if this team's drafting is all that it is made out to be, then they should be able to find the next Copp, if the Cap hit is coming in very high. unfortunately atm other than perfetti, we have no viable options internally who can replace his versatility as a C/W and his offense/defense imo.

 

[Jetsfan79]

I could see a scenario where Chevy puts a 3.85M 4 year deal on the table and says “You can sign this or we will have to trade you” and Copp signs.

And if Copp doesn't sign, maybe the Jets replace Beaulieu with a 750 k contract. Then you can use those savings in one last gasp in trying to sign him. Making yourself look magnanimous for the extra effort in the process.

 

[mouser]

Has anyone tried to compile some of the candidate players Copp or the Jets might cite during the arbitration hearing as comparables?

 

[MosTLucky]

I feel like one in Copps favour could be Bertuzzi, who signed for 4.75 mill i believe. Except Bertuzzi has been putting up much better numbers for longer. Copp's numbers this year are an outlier

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

I could see a scenario where Chevy puts a 3.85M 4 year deal on the table and says “You can sign this or we will have to trade you” and Copp signs.

They can do slightly better than even that.

Copp at $3,951,188 or under allows them to hand in a near optimal roster AND keep both Niku & Beaulieu. The only down point is placing Little on LTIR when the rosters are handed in.

Worst case scenario if an injury occurs to a forward, trade/waive one of Niku/Beaulieu to create the daily cap space necessary for a call up at forward.

There appears no way to place Little on LTIR after rosters are handed in and sign Copp before this time, so the same two options I've suggested for weeks now remain in play.
1) the roster listed above with Copp signed at $3.9 million or less
OR
2) the hand shake deal of Copp missing camp & signing after rosters are handed in. Doing so frees up all of nearly all of Little's cap space, allowing for Copp to be rewarded with a larger salary

I'm shocked todays Pionk contract still has doubters of Copp eventually signing.

Another piece of the puzzle placed successfully by Chevy today!

Go Jets Go!

 

[Jetsfan79]

The can do slightly better than even that.

Copp at $3,951,188 or under allows them to hand in a near optimal roster AND keep both Niku & Beaulieu. The only down point is placing Little on LTIR when the rosters are handed in.

Worst case scenario if an injury occurs to a forward, trade/waive one of Niku/Beaulieu to create the daily cap space necessary for a call up at forward.
View attachment 460658 There appears no way to place Little on LTIR after rosters are handed in and sign Copp before this time, so the same two options I've suggested for weeks now remain in play.
1) the roster listed above with Copp signed at $3.9 million or less
OR
2) the hand shake deal of Copp missing camp & signing after rosters are handed in. Doing so frees up all of nearly all of Little's cap space, allowing for Copp to be rewarded with a larger salary

I'm shocked todays Pionk contract still has doubters of Copp eventually signing.

Another piece of the puzzle placed successfully by Chevy today! Go Jets Go!

Mainly thats comes from the assumption of Copp wanting close to 5 and who his agent is. Personally, I think its 50/50 he signs.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Has anyone tried to compile some of the candidate players Copp or the Jets might cite during the arbitration hearing as comparables?

I doubt Copp is going to arbitration. His application is merely a formality that every eligible RFA has done.

I expect either an immediate signing or him walking away from the arbitration process prior to the his date, which will serve as a red flag that my often suggested "plan B" is being used by Chevy.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

His argument was that we wouldn't get a sixth for him at the deadline...

OK
At the TD he gets at least a 1st if he is on an expiring contract. But it is still irrelevant.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Mainly thats from the assumption of Copp wanting close to 5 and who his agent is. Personally, I think its 50/50 he signs.

The agent works for Copp. Copp is a team player & is committed to winning in Winnipeg. No action he's made or words he has said suggest otherwise.

I however agree there's a 50/50 chance, only my two options are

1) 50% immediate signing at $3.9 million
2) 50 % signing once the season begins at $4.5 million

I don't for a second think goes to arbitration.

 

[mouser]

I doubt Copp is going to arbitration. His application is merely a formality that every eligible RFA has done.

I expect either an immediate signing or him waking away from the arbitration process prior to the his date, which will serve as a red flag that my often suggested "plan B" is being used by Chevy.

I don't believe Copp can walk away from arbitration once it has been filed.

Was looking to get a feel for what the arbitrator might award. A quick scan of his career stats suggest $3.0m to $3.5m to me. He had the career season in 2020-21, but the much lower production in the prior two seasons should drag the award down.

 

[Jetsfan79]

The agent works for Copp. Copp is a team player & is committed to winning in Winnipeg. No action he's made or words he has said suggest otherwise.

I however agree there's a 50/50 chance, only my two options are

1) 50% immediate signing at $3.9 million
2) 50 % signing once the season begins at $4.5 million

I don't for a second this goes to arbitration.

That's the question mark.. Is 4.5ish enough for Copp? I'm guessing Chevy knows the answer to this. If the answer is/was no, it would of made much more sense to trade Copp at around the draft. Thats why I think there's still a solid chance he resigns.

The longer this drags, the better the chance he doesn't get traded IMO.

Today its 50/50, next week I would say 60/40 he stays. Arbitration week its probably 70/30. And 90/10 right at the deadline before arb starts.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

I don't believe Copp can walk away from arbitration once it has been filed.

Was looking to get a feel for what the arbitrator might award. A quick scan of his career stats suggest $3.0m to $3.5m to me. He had the career season in 2020-21, but the much lower production in the prior two seasons should drag the award down.

It's already been addressed that a player can walk away from the process at any time.

 

[mouser]

The agent works for Copp. Copp is a team player & is committed to winning in Winnipeg. No action he's made or words he has said suggest otherwise.

I however agree there's a 50/50 chance, only my two options are

1) 50% immediate signing at $3.9 million
2) 50 % signing once the season begins at $4.5 million

I don't for a second this goes to arbitration.

For option (2), which player are you removing from the option (1) roster you posted earlier to make room? Why not just remove that player and do option 1 with the larger salary?

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

That's the question mark.. Is 4.5ish enough for Copp? I'm guessing Chevy knows the answer to this. If the answer is/was no, it would of made much more sense to trade Copp at around the draft. Thats why I think there's still a solid chance he resigns.

The longer this drags, the better the chance he doesn't get traded IMO.

Today its 50/50, next week I would say 60/40 he stays. Arbitration week its probably 70/30. And 90/10 right at the deadline before arb starts.

$4.5 is a completely arbitrary number. Some cap gymnastics will allow nearly all of Little's LTIR to be available once the roster are handed in.

Under this scenario both the team win (using LTIR once seasons begins) & Copp win (contract in excess of $4 million)

 

[Jetsfan79]

For option (2), which player are you removing from the option (1) roster you posted earlier to make room? Why not just remove that player and do option 1 with the larger salary?

Jets likely want 13F, 8D for the season. Option 2 assumes the Jets get rid of Beaulieu and replace him with 750 K contract. That will give the Jets another 500k to spend towards Copp.

Option 1 wont work with the larger salary unless the Jets go with 13F/7d.

3.9 already assumes Little's LTIR is factored in, The 500k savings that can be used to push the offer to 4.5ish is based on swaping out Beaulieu for a min salary D.

 

[mouser]

Jets likely want 13F, 8D for the season. Option 2 assumes the Jets get rid of Beaulieu and replace him with 750 K contract. That will give the Jets another 500k to spend towards Copp.

Option 1 wont work with the larger salary unless the Jets go with 13F/7d.

3.9 already assumes Little's LTIR is factored in, The 500k savings that can be used to push the offer to 4.5ish is based on swaping out Beaulieu for a min salary D.

I was more confused by the statement that option 2 couldn't happen before the regular season starts. If they want to swap Beaulieu or any other players there's no need to wait that long.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

For option (2), which player are you removing from the option (1) roster you posted earlier to make room? Why not just remove that player and do option 1 with the larger salary?

The two concepts are entirely different.

Option 1 places Little on LTIR when the rosters are handed in. Many people think this can't be done, but it is very much allowed. There are simply more benefits to be gained by waiting.

Sure this could be further optimized, this was only an exercise to display the Jets could hand in a roster than was optimal without trading/waiving Beaulieu & Niku. Of course more space can be created by trading waiving Beaulieu or Niku, I'm a firm believer that one of those two won't be on the roster opening day. The point was simply Copp can be signed handing wth an optimal rostering mind or without any further trades/waiver moves that take away from the teams depth.

Option 2 involves cap gymnastics, The goal being to create a roster as close to the cap as possible without placing Little on LTIR when rosters are handed in. To do so means trying tricks like placing Vesalainen's $894,167 on the Moose or for arguments sake placing Suess on the roster at $725,000. Keep doing this as much as you can in an effort to get exactly at the cap without going over.

The best I've done is being $18,000 from the cap which would provide all but $18,000 of Little's $5,291,667 to the Jets in cap relief.

If people don't think Chevy isn't exploring this as an option, they didn't pay much attention to Tampa Bay last season.

 

[Jetsfan79]

I believe its actually 4.4 but close enough.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

I was more confused by the statement that option 2 couldn't happen before the regular season starts. If they want to swap Beaulieu or any other players there's no need to wait that long.

Option 2 involves placing Little on LTIR once the season starts, to maximize LTIR. Of course you'd gave to wait until the season starts.

 

[Romang67]

I believe its actually 4.4 but close enough.

I'd much rather the team take the arbitration deal than signing Copp at over $4.4M long term.

 

[mouser]

The two concepts are entirely different.

Option 1 places as you're placing Little on LTIR when the rosters are handed in. Many people think this can't be done, but it is very much allowed. There are simply more benefits to be gained by waiting.

Option 2 involves "cap gymnastics," The goal being to create a roster as close to the cap as possible without Little on LTIR when rosters are handed in. To do so means trying tricks like placing Vesalainen's $894,167 on the Moose & for arguments sake placing Suess on the roster at $725,000. Keep doing this as much as you can in an effort to get exactly at the cap without going over.

The best I've done is being $18,000 from the cap which would provide all but $18,000 of Little's $5,291,667 to the Jets in cap relief.

If people don't think Chevy isn't exploring this as an option, they didn't pay much attention to Tampa Bay last season.

Regardless of whether they LTIR Little on day 1 or the final day of training camp the healthy players on the roster can't exceed $81.5m. If your Training Camp option (1) only has $3.9m of room for Copp then Day 1 option (2) won't create more then $3.9m unless you have different final active rosters for each option.

On a different note, there's a quirk with LTIR and Performance Bonuses that means the Jets would strongly prefer to have Vesalainen on the opening day roster if possible. Even if he was later sent to the AHL on day 2+. CapFriendly gives a good discussion on this in their FAQ covering LTIR and Performance Bonuses.

LTIR FAQ - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Option 2 involves placing Little on LTIR once the season starts. The only way to maximize LTIR is to wait until this time, thus it can't happen until the season starts.

You have some sort of misunderstanding here, I'm trying to figure out precisely where the mistake is.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

I believe its actually 4.4 but close enough.

Jets can run an optimal 21 man roster all year, allow all their prospects to develop rather than being healthy scratches & use a combination of Niku, Suess & Nogier, all making below league minimum ($725,000) & still have nearly $4.5 million available.

Jetsnation tries hard, but it's often journalism students that are at best taking Cre-Con at Red River composing their articles & tweeting from their phones.

 

[raideralex99]

Seriously does anyone want Copp for $4+ M?
Stanley Cup contenders don't pay 3rd liners that kind of money ... they rent them at the TDL.

 

[surixon]

Still awfully tight for us to find a way to fit him in.

I guess it depends what Copp wants. We can do a 1 year 4 million deal but that may not be what he's looking for.