Speculation: Copp's future?

[mouser]

Which, honestly, is a bit weird. Little is for all intents and purposes retired. He's not playing next season. I'm hoping that he'll be able to have a normal life after his hockey career. Obviously he's not about to retire and walk away from that kind of money, because normal people wouldn't.

So why does his contract still count toward the cap, but only up until the season starts? Why is the only reasonable course of action here for the Jets to dump that contract on some other team, just so we don't have to deal with the headache for exactly one day every year?

Them's the rules, but why? Surely they should be able to work something out for cases like this?

Little’s contract counts towards the cap 365 days a year—His cap hit doesn’t suddenly become $0 after being placed on LTIR.

LTIR allows a team to replace a player’s contract AAV even if that would cause the team to exceed the cap ceiling. LTIR doesn’t remove the player’s cap hit.

Everything you read on Capfriendly or any other cap site are projections of what the team cap and roster will be on October 12th when the team submits its opening Regular Season roster and the regular season salary cap takes effect.

Little will go to LTIR on either October 11th or 12th when Winnipeg announces their opening day roster.

 

[Mathil8]

In almost perfect agreement. I'd like this 100 times over if it wasn't for the assumption Maurice is an idiot.

He's well aware the team cap management/optimal injury insurance situation involves using B grade talent (relatively speaking) as scratches while prospects play nightly making them better NHL'ers while developing on the Moose.

Traditionally Maurice plays his 4th line amongst the lowest minutes in the league & the players on that line are expected to penalty kill & throw their bodies in front of every puck possible. That's a $750,000 a year job on every NHL team.

Maurice is one of 31 other coaches in the NHL that don't ask their blue chip prospects to risk their careers blocking shots on the PK.

Rather they play top minutes on the Moose & then join the big club to play the same role.

Whose NHL career has Maurice derailed? Petan? Dano? Niku? Postma? Who should have been playing that 4th line role since Maurice arrived? Albert? Cormier? O'Dell? Klingberg? DeLeo, Kosmachuk? Lipon? Suess?

Thanks I'll take Slater, Thorburn, Stepniak, Halischuk, Matthias, Hendricks, Bourque, Shore, Shaw, Thompson, Lewis but most of all Perreault!

If I was to point out a player that deserved more opportunity it was Rosolovic. All the athletism in the world. If he could begin to think the game he'd be a perennial player of the week rather, than achieving that status once. Best comment was Torts being asked what he liked about Jack's game last year. "Nothing" was his response.

Keep in mind Roslo was the best example I could think of.

I think you're making an argument against something I did not say. I'm only speaking about Beaulieu being a press box defenseman, not how Maurice has handled press box forwards, etc in the past. I also get that these press box players are human beings who are getting paid close to league minimum to be good guys in the room and on the practice sheet. Occasionally you have to throw them a bone and get them into game action, if not just for the player but for room morale as well; Beaulieu for example is apparently a beloved part of the locker room.

My qualm with how Maurice has handled Beaulieu in the past (I did not once infer Maurice was an idiot) is that last year when I thought Heinola/Samberg should be getting in games, he ended up playing Beaulieu over them for the vast vast majority of games, and not only did he do that, but he decided to play Beaulieu at times on the top pairing and on his off side...

If Maurice liked Beaulieu enough to do that, who do you think is getting into the game once injuries occur, the beloved in the room vet who he's elevated in past situations, or one of the rookie D from the Moose? At least if it's Niku or Nogier it will make the option of Heinola/Samberg/Kovacevic much more likely.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

I think you're making an argument against something I did not say. I'm only speaking about Beaulieu being a press box defenseman, not how Maurice has handled press box forwards, etc in the past. I also get that these press box players are human beings who are getting paid close to league minimum to be good guys in the room and on the practice sheet. Occasionally you have to throw them a bone and get them into game action, if not just for the player but for room morale as well; Beaulieu for example is apparently a beloved part of the locker room.

My qualm with how Maurice has handled Beaulieu in the past (I did not once infer Maurice was an idiot) is that last year when I thought Heinola/Samberg should be getting in games, he ended up playing Beaulieu over them for the vast vast majority of games, and not only did he do that, but he decided to play Beaulieu at times on the top pairing and on his off side...

If Maurice liked Beaulieu enough to do that, who do you think is getting into the game once injuries occur, the beloved in the room vet who he's elevated in past situations, or one of the rookie D from the Moose? At least if it's Niku or Nogier it will make the option of Heinola/Samberg/Kovacevic much more likely.

Certainly I took your Maurice slight, however small, & placed it against all the other spurious remarks others often make.

Sorry for including you in amongst them.

As for Beaulieu, he's spent the bulk of his career playing his weak side. Maurice has done what Housely, Julien & Therrien all did.

Regarding Heinola/Samberg, we all know that Ville had a tough schedule coming into camp & was cut some slack. Other than that Chevy's interviews had him state that there were "taxi squad complications" which all the teams faced, that resulted in players being placed there for one reason or another.

Perhaps that's a cop out, but Chevy has enough respect to give him the benefit of the doubt on things he actually says. It's how he talks around questions (like most GM's do) that give us all grief. More to the point are "taxi squad complications" on the coach or the GM?

My own view on the matter over the earlier part of last season was that Beaulieu needed "x" amount of games so the Jets could meet expansion requirements. My memory is weak on how that played out, but my recollection is Beaulieu went on IR for surgery shortly after the moment he met his games requirement for expansion, so there's certainly that to take into account. Further his surgery was nothing new. He'd needed surgery for a torn labrum for some time, but like many NHL'er's was playing thru it.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Yup that is the only way it would work for him here.

I like your suggestion of trading Little's cap space from earlier tonight. I rarely think in trade terms as "player for player" trades are nearly impossible to forecast. My favourite time of year for hockey talk is when simple math can speak for itself. As such I hadn't put any effort into trading away Little's contract.

Any projection of what the ask would be for 3 years at $5.3 million?

I just see it being so ridiculous that it may be best to ride out the current contract.

Getting it done effectively solves all our cap concerns, both now & for seasons to come.

 

[Mathil8]

Certainly I took your Maurice slight, however small, & placed it against all the other spurious remarks others often make.

Sorry for including you in amongst them.

As for Beaulieu, he's spent the bulk of his career playing his weak side. Maurice has done what Housely, Julien & Therrien all did.

Regarding Heinola/Samberg, we all know that Ville had a tough schedule coming into camp & was cut some slack. Other than that Chevy's interviews had him state that there were "taxi squad complications" which all the teams faced, that resulted in players being placed there for one reason or another.

Perhaps that's a cop out, but Chevy has enough respect to give him the benefit of the doubt on things he actually says. It's how he talks around questions (like most GM's do) that give us all grief. More to the point are "taxi squad complications" on the coach or the GM?

My own view on the matter over the earlier part of last season was that Beaulieu needed "x" amount of games so the Jets could meet expansion requirements. My memory is weak on how that played out, but my recollection is Beaulieu went on IR for surgery the moment he met his games requirement for expansion, so there's certainly that to take into account. Further his surgery was nothing new. He'd needed surgery for a torn labrum for some time, but like many NHL'er's was playing thru it.

I think there was a lot of smoke and mirrors going on with some of the post season interviews regarding Heinola's NHL games played. There clearly seemed to be a disconnect with Maurice and Chevy, based on both the pre-season and mid-season Chevy interview in which he specifically stated Heinola getting into more games. But that's a separate topic of conversation.

I believe Beaulieu needed 12 games last year in order to meet the criteria (I went back to one of your posts, as I remember you were vocal and tracking this, in which it was alluded that February 9th was the last game he needed to play to be eligible). So he ended up playing 13 more games (while battling through a torn labrum) instead of getting Heinola into more games. Not only that, but then we acquired Benn and put him into the line up over giving Heinola games as well. Which of course after acquiring him, you have to try him out there. I think it was pretty obvious early on though that Benn was not much of an improvement to our revolving door of depth defensemen. Still upset he got into 8 regular season games down the stretch and 3 playoff games over Heinola/Samberg.

I honestly still find it hard to find any reason that Heinola didn't get more NHL games, he absolutely should have at least gotten to his maximum games allowed before burning his ELC (let alone more games, but still under the threshold of losing a year of team control). Between that and the Chevy interviews, the likely reason is due to coaching staff preferences.

IMO the worst part of last year was not getting more games for our young D to see where they're at, instead we decided to trot out the Beaulieus, Benns, and Poolmans. Heck, Niku ended up getting more games played than Heinola last year.


I'll leave it at that for now though, seeing as this is the Copp thread. To get back on topic I'm going to guess that Chevy and Copp come to a 1-year agreement prior to arbitration as I can't see us getting him on a multi year contract under ~4.2M aav. I'm hoping they're close to getting it worked out, as I don't like the idea of going to arbitration. While an arbitration rewarded contract should be <4, if for some reason it is >4.2 but less than <4.538 we'd have to accept the contract and the cap ramifications could be ugly. I imagine Chevy has some trades in his back pocket if it gets close to the wire, although we'd then have to go out and find a solid defensive-minded 3rd line PK specialist winger for <4.2m (would be sooooo much easier just to keep Copp haha).

 

[mouser]

I like your suggestion of trading Little's cap space from earlier tonight. I rarely think in trade terms as "player for player" trades are nearly impossible to forecast. My favourite time of year for hockey talk is when simple math can speak for itself. As such I hadn't put any effort into trading away Little's contract.

Any projection of what the ask would be for 3 years at $5.3 million?

I just see it being so ridiculous that it may be best to ride out the current contract.

Getting it done effectively solves all our cap concerns, both now & for seasons to come.

Assuming Little’s contract is insured then any team acquiring him is taking on $2.9m in cash and three years of $5.3m in cap hit.

Given recent comparable cap dumps I’d estimate the best case scenario would be two 2nd round draft picks worth of value in picks and prospects. That 3rd year cap hit on Little could easily push the demand into surrendering at least the value of a 1st+ though,

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

I'll leave it at that for now though, seeing as this is the Copp thread. To get back on topic I'm going to guess that Chevy and Copp come to a 1-year agreement prior to arbitration as I can't see us getting him on a multi year contract under ~4.2M aav. I'm hoping they're close to getting it worked out, as I don't like the idea of going to arbitration. While an arbitration rewarded contract should be <4, if for some reason it is >4.2 but less than <4.538 we'd have to accept the contract and the cap ramifications could be ugly. I imagine Chevy has some trades in his back pocket if it gets close to the wire, although we'd then have to go out and find a solid defensive-minded 3rd line PK specialist winger for <4.2m (would be sooooo much easier just to keep Copp haha).

The very concept of arbitration frightens me. We don't need some newb arbitrator undoing all the hard work Chevy has done this off season with an over the top decision.

It would be just our luck for that to occur.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'd hope we can dump Beaulieu on someone. Buffalo looks like they are going to have to take on money to make the floor. Beaulieu plus a 3rd for a Buffalo 5th or something like that?

No way am I paying someone to take Beaulieu when he can be buried in the AHL at a cap hit of 125k. No freaking way!

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Somewhere over the past week a number of posters said otherwise when I first brought up the theory of Copp walking away from arbitration, missing camp & then signing immediately after the rosters were handed in.

If the arbitration process must be followed thru, with the only exception being an early signing prior to a ruling, then there's no way Little's LTIR can be maximized by placing him on LTIR after the rosters are handed in. Chevy will be millions over the cap with both Little & Copp on the roster simultaneously, regardless of whatever opening day roster juggling one attempts.

I think a player could withdraw prior to the hearing. Just my opinion/guess. I can't see Copp doing that though. Why would he? I'm sure it is either deal or arbitration.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Wouldn't it be possible for the Jets to trade Beaulieu for a 750 k player at 50 percent retention? Would that be aloud? This way the savings increase to 875 k.

Example:

Jets trade Beaulieu and small sweetener (ex. Nathan Smith) to a team with cap space for a 750 k dman at 50 percent retained.

Out: Beaulieu's 1.25 million
In: 750 k player with retained salary: 375 k

Savings: 875k

Maybe Jets can do something similar with Niku? In this case trade for a player with similar salary but again with retention. Could be another 360 k or so Savings

Bury Beaulieu in the AHL. No sweetener. Savings: 1,125,000

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Wouldn't it be possible for the Jets to trade Beaulieu for a 750 k player at 50 percent retention? Would that be aloud? This way the savings increase to 875 k.

Example:

Jets trade Beaulieu and small sweetener (ex. Nathan Smith) to a team with cap space for a 750 k dman at 50 percent retained.

Out: Beaulieu's 1.25 million
In: 750 k player with retained salary: 375 k

Savings: 875k

Maybe Jets can do something similar with Niku? In this case trade for a player with similar salary but again with retention. Could be another 360 k or so Savings

1) Jets waive Beaulieu & he is claimed. Savings $125,000
2) Jets waive Beaulieu & he clears. Add $125,000
3) Jets trade Beaulieu for a player making $750,000 at 50% retention. Cost $375,000

I think your concept is better framed as attempting to acquire any player via a 50% retention trade & then use that player as a scratch. Net savings in that case is $375,000+.

From the basic explanation of salary retention rules on capfriendly, your idea appears valid

.

 

[surixon]

I like your suggestion of trading Little's cap space from earlier tonight. I rarely think in trade terms as "player for player" trades are nearly impossible to forecast. My favourite time of year for hockey talk is when simple math can speak for itself. As such I hadn't put any effort into trading away Little's contract.

Any projection of what the ask would be for 3 years at $5.3 million?

I just see it being so ridiculous that it may be best to ride out the current contract.

Getting it done effectively solves all our cap concerns, both now & for seasons to come.

It would likely cost a 1st round pick. I imagine Chevy has something in his back pocket on that but will only pull the trigger if he can get Copp inked to something that works for the team.

No sense spending a valuable asset if you can't come to an agreement.

 

[Royale With Cheese]

$4 million is the high end for me.

Doesn't make much sense that line driver and centerman Lowry ($3.25) would make a bunch less than Copp. Easier to replace Copp. Copp's value is enhanced by the Jets contending window, otherwise he'd probably be dealt 100%.

This is where I’m at. I know folks here love him, but Im not feeling the love at anything higher than $3.5 million for this player.

 

[JetsUK]

I think there was a lot of smoke and mirrors going on with some of the post season interviews regarding Heinola's NHL games played. There clearly seemed to be a disconnect with Maurice and Chevy, based on both the pre-season and mid-season Chevy interview in which he specifically stated Heinola getting into more games. But that's a separate topic of conversation.

I believe Beaulieu needed 12 games last year in order to meet the criteria (I went back to one of your posts, as I remember you were vocal and tracking this, in which it was alluded that February 9th was the last game he needed to play to be eligible). So he ended up playing 13 more games (while battling through a torn labrum) instead of getting Heinola into more games. Not only that, but then we acquired Benn and put him into the line up over giving Heinola games as well. Which of course after acquiring him, you have to try him out there. I think it was pretty obvious early on though that Benn was not much of an improvement to our revolving door of depth defensemen. Still upset he got into 8 regular season games down the stretch and 3 playoff games over Heinola/Samberg.

I honestly still find it hard to find any reason that Heinola didn't get more NHL games, he absolutely should have at least gotten to his maximum games allowed before burning his ELC (let alone more games, but still under the threshold of losing a year of team control). Between that and the Chevy interviews, the likely reason is due to coaching staff preferences.

IMO the worst part of last year was not getting more games for our young D to see where they're at, instead we decided to trot out the Beaulieus, Benns, and Poolmans. Heck, Niku ended up getting more games played than Heinola last year.


I'll leave it at that for now though, seeing as this is the Copp thread. To get back on topic I'm going to guess that Chevy and Copp come to a 1-year agreement prior to arbitration as I can't see us getting him on a multi year contract under ~4.2M aav. I'm hoping they're close to getting it worked out, as I don't like the idea of going to arbitration. While an arbitration rewarded contract should be <4, if for some reason it is >4.2 but less than <4.538 we'd have to accept the contract and the cap ramifications could be ugly. I imagine Chevy has some trades in his back pocket if it gets close to the wire, although we'd then have to go out and find a solid defensive-minded 3rd line PK specialist winger for <4.2m (would be sooooo much easier just to keep Copp haha).

IIRC, the rules for Beaulieu as a D was that he had played either 40 games the previous year (he played 38, so did not meet that criterion) or 70 games combined in those previous two years (he played 18 in 2018-19), so he needed 14 games. He ended up playing 25 before he went onto the injury list and was visibly dropping off in the last stretch.

* NB played 18/38/25 games between 2018 - 21

* One defenseman who is a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played in at least 40 NHL games the prior season or played in at least 70 NHL games in the prior two seasons.

Back OT, I think the possibility of a short deal for Copp that lets him move into FA soon while the Jets run a short bench at home is an interesting one, especially given how Maurice has traditionally run his forwards.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It would likely cost a 1st round pick. I imagine Chevy has something in his back pocket on that but will only pull the trigger if he can get Copp inked to something that works for the team.

No sense spending a valuable asset if you can't come to an agreement.

Simply no need to spend that asset. We can get to within $7200 of freeing up all of Little's LTIR space with no problem. That is with Copp at 4 mil. You would be spending a 1st to save $7k and a half hour's work by Chevy and his staff.

From a fan's POV, it would be nice if that contract would just go away but in the real world, it is a small issue, at least for this year.

 

[Brixton]

Just curious. Is there any correlation to Pionk salary for year 1 of his contract being only 3.5 million and then increasing to 6.5m, 7.5m and 6m for the following years, to the fact that Copp still needs to be signed? Does this somehow give Chevy some wiggle room to fit Copp in without having an exact amount of dollars available (just encase arbitration says he is worth something outrageous like $6m)

 

[WolfHouse]

Just curious. Is there any correlation to Pionk salary for year 1 of his contract being only 3.5 million and then increasing to 6.5m, 7.5m and 6m for the following years, to the fact that Copp still needs to be signed? Does this somehow give Chevy some wiggle room to fit Copp in without having an exact amount of dollars available (just encase arbitration says he is worth something outrageous like $6m)

No - arbitration decision is final

 

[WolfHouse]

Would be curious to see how many of overhardts client haven’t gone to arbitration

 

[DRW204]

Would be curious to see how many of overhardts client haven’t gone to arbitration

not many *have gone
Contracts by Agent | Puckpedia

riley nash is also rep'd by him and 2019 2nd rder simon lundmark

 

[Oilpeg]

OK
At the TD he gets at least a 1st if he is on an expiring contract. But it is still irrelevant.

exactly...LOL

 

[Huffer]

@Arthur Fonzarelli , what are the implications to getting Gus on the roster? Unless they want to have him play more minutes on the Moose, I thought he might be the 4C, with Nash on the wing, and have Toninato and Harkins as the 12/13 (assuming Copp can get signed).

 

[BigZ65]

No way am I paying someone to take Beaulieu when he can be buried in the AHL at a cap hit of 125k. No freaking way!

Could be a major difference RE backup goalie and trade deadline.

 

[surixon]

Could be a major difference RE backup goalie and trade deadline.

The backup goalie is largely inconsequential for us. Helle is playing 65 games and if he goes down we are f***ed no matter who we have as a backup.

Having to go bare bones on a backup was always going to happen at some point with a big minute vezina goalie and needing to flesh out the rest of the roster.

 

[mouser]

Just curious. Is there any correlation to Pionk salary for year 1 of his contract being only 3.5 million and then increasing to 6.5m, 7.5m and 6m for the following years, to the fact that Copp still needs to be signed? Does this somehow give Chevy some wiggle room to fit Copp in without having an exact amount of dollars available (just encase arbitration says he is worth something outrageous like $6m)

Nope. The reason the contract is structured that way is because Escrow in 2021-22 is going to be ~18%, then 10% in 2022-23 and 6% in 2023-24.

Most contracts being signed now are structured similarly to reduce pay in the high escrow seasons and increase it in the lower escrow seasons. More gross pay in the player's pocket.

 

[WolfHouse]

I think there was a lot of smoke and mirrors going on with some of the post season interviews regarding Heinola's NHL games played. There clearly seemed to be a disconnect with Maurice and Chevy, based on both the pre-season and mid-season Chevy interview in which he specifically stated Heinola getting into more games. But that's a separate topic of conversation.

I believe Beaulieu needed 12 games last year in order to meet the criteria (I went back to one of your posts, as I remember you were vocal and tracking this, in which it was alluded that February 9th was the last game he needed to play to be eligible). So he ended up playing 13 more games (while battling through a torn labrum) instead of getting Heinola into more games. Not only that, but then we acquired Benn and put him into the line up over giving Heinola games as well. Which of course after acquiring him, you have to try him out there. I think it was pretty obvious early on though that Benn was not much of an improvement to our revolving door of depth defensemen. Still upset he got into 8 regular season games down the stretch and 3 playoff games over Heinola/Samberg.

I honestly still find it hard to find any reason that Heinola didn't get more NHL games, he absolutely should have at least gotten to his maximum games allowed before burning his ELC (let alone more games, but still under the threshold of losing a year of team control). Between that and the Chevy interviews, the likely reason is due to coaching staff preferences.

IMO the worst part of last year was not getting more games for our young D to see where they're at, instead we decided to trot out the Beaulieus, Benns, and Poolmans. Heck, Niku ended up getting more games played than Heinola last year.


I'll leave it at that for now though, seeing as this is the Copp thread. To get back on topic I'm going to guess that Chevy and Copp come to a 1-year agreement prior to arbitration as I can't see us getting him on a multi year contract under ~4.2M aav. I'm hoping they're close to getting it worked out, as I don't like the idea of going to arbitration. While an arbitration rewarded contract should be <4, if for some reason it is >4.2 but less than <4.538 we'd have to accept the contract and the cap ramifications could be ugly. I imagine Chevy has some trades in his back pocket if it gets close to the wire, although we'd then have to go out and find a solid defensive-minded 3rd line PK specialist winger for <4.2m (would be sooooo much easier just to keep Copp haha).

Would more games have meant heinola was eligible for the Seattle draft?